There is only one GB poll so far today – ICM’s weekly poll for the Guardian, their penultimate of the campaign. Voting intentions are almost identical to their poll for the Sun on Sunday yesterday, with topline figures of CON 45%(nc), LAB 34%(nc), LDEM 8%(-1), UKIP 5%(nc). Fieldwork was Friday to Sunday, so will have been largely before the terrorist attack in London Bridge. Full tabs are here.

Survation will have a telephone poll out later tonight (probably midnight judging by past weeks’ timings) for Good Morning Britain, delayed for a day because of the terrorist attack. Other than that I expect most companies will now be looking towards their final call polls tomorrow, Wednesday or (if MORI stick their usual timetable) Thursday morning.


1,618 Responses to “ICM/Guardian – CON 45%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 5%”

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  1. IF the Conservatives do manage to win something like a 50+ majority on Thursday, I very much doubt there will be much celebration, rather one HUGE sigh of relief.

    They will count themselves lucky, knowing they almost blew it BIG TIME. Hubris and a dreadful manifesto would have been their undoing.

  2. @ Adrian B

    1) Polls ask people how likely they are to actually vote. This time young people are self-reporting considerably higher levels of turnout relative to usual.
    2) The EU Referendum (and, to a lesser extent, the 2015 election) left young people red-faced – absolutely not the result they wanted, and one which could have been avoided if more of them bothered to turn out. Seems reasonable this could cause a small but significant number of them to reconsider voting this time.
    3) One reason why young people tend not to turn out is apathy – which itself is often driven by the perception that all the major parties are essentially offering minor variations of the same thing. This clearly is not the case this time round.

    None of these reasons is decisive but they make a return to 2010 levels seems plausible to me – in fact there seems to be more reasons to bother voting as a young person in this election compared to 2010.

  3. @Matt126:

    If correct, you should be able to do an accumulator of three of those seats on Leicester City-type odds, when the real odds at 8-1.

    There should be lots of rich YouGov employees after this.

  4. @Mark H

    “The polls were massively wrong in 2015. Of several reasons given, one that resonated was “shy Torys”. In other words people who were a little embarrassed to actually admit they were going to vote Conservative.
    I think this may be even more accentuated in this GE.

    I’m not a huge face book user, but I have noticed that anyone who suggests they may be voting for the “Blue” team, is met with a diatribe of abuse. This simply doesn’t happen to those who say “I’m voting Labour”.

    If you’re a Tory you’re perceived as selfish, self-centred, uncaring, cold and heartless. So why would someone who is sensible, but sensitive, volunteer this information? They won’t; they’ll quietly mark their “x” next to their Conservative candidate and keep quiet”

    ———-

    You know Mark, it’s amazing how many peeps have come on here to tell us that. Which is weird when you consider that polling is private unlike online posts.

    Also, surely if there’s that perception as you say, one solution is to come out the shy closet and prove the sensible, sensitive thing. The left don’t worry about all the branding as Trots etc.

  5. Thanks AlexW that’s more like it! :-)

    Similarly “the youth are lazy” is not a good reason for us to guess 45% – I just want some good solid reasons to think that certain weightings are fair.

  6. CR

    Why do you think that about Diane Abbot? I know that Sue is impressed with her but I’ve never found DA’s grasp of facts or speaking style to be very impressive at all – certainly from anything I’ve seen of her on TV. I know many others feel the same and whilst Sue is probably correct to mention the danger of potential inbuilt prejudices I am quite certain that that is not universally the case, either for me or many others who seem to share my view.

    And whilst I thinking it’s wrong, generally, to be critical of people’s voice or mannerisms she has a really tiresome tone which sounds like she is being overtly slow and patient in her delivery because she is talking to someone very slow on the uptake.

  7. Rich

    ” How Scottish Labour came to this I will never know.”

    Well, if you don’t know now, then you probably never will.

    The reasons why SLab slumped so badly in 2015 are well-known (and this isn’t the time to go over them).

    From the anecdotes, I’m hearing, the recovery in the SLab vote to around that 2015 level is largely down to enthusiasm for Corbyn, and the chance that the Tories won’t form the next UK Government.

    I doubt that there are sufficient Guardian readers in Scotland for their advice to have any effect whatsoever – and those who do read the paper will probably we well aware of the circumstances in their particular constituency that would make their tactical vote most effective towards their preferred outcome.

  8. Just a minute, Rudd isn’t doing her home office duties, they are sending greening instead, Gove is in his constituency and doing a really patchy video link to C4 news. Are they both in trouble and need to campaign in their seats?

  9. When questioned as to whether she was looking forward to being Home Secretary on Friday, Diane Abbott didn’t answer but said she was looking forward to Labour winning and then Jeremy would pick his Cabinet. Not a vote of confidence in herself, but perhaps a better answer than ‘yes’. Probably not going to impact VI either way, but it was another poor interview.

  10. @ Rjm

    I have said from the very start that May will get 399 seats and Lab sub 200, I expect 4% swing to the Tories on polling day and all this excitement will have been for nothing.

    I would like to add though that is entirely possible that I will look a bit of a numpty after the exit poll, but as my wife will tell you, it is something that I rather excel at :)

  11. @Carfrew,

    Yes a lot of people say that, but essentially Mark H is right and I feel he’ll be proved right Thursday night. I am almost nervous to post anything mildly Cons supportive on Facebook as you get, abused frankly, and that’s from friends!, let alone public forums!!! The done thing to be seen to be doing in public is virtue signalling…

  12. Paul croft

    Because this isn’t the Diane Abbott I remember, this isn’t the Diane Abbott that used to be on telly with portillo

  13. Cambridgerachel I don’t know about Gove but wasn’t Amber Rudd stood next to Sadiq Khan in London earlier today?

  14. “I have said from the very start that May will get 399 seats and Lab sub 200, I expect 4% swing to the Tories on polling day and all this excitement will have been for nothing.”

    ———

    It’s not necessarily for nothing if it’s uncovered a trend that will impact more in future…

  15. RE: Canterbury – a city I know very well (am just buying a house there)

    It has two large universities.

    YouGov base their model in part on the demographic make-up of an area and apply voting intentions of those in similar demographic ‘buckets’ over the top (I think, along with other stuff).

    Take the 2015 result. But then, remember LAB are polling 30% higher among young people. Then increase turnout to 2010 GE levels of 51% (a very modest assumption). Then add in some tactical voting and viola – LAB victory.

    It is perfectly conceivable and doe not indicate a LAB landslide – it’s to do with the very specific demographic makeup of that constituency. A LOT of young voters.

  16. I still think the percentage difference between Con and Labour will be about the same as at the 2015 GE, but I also have a feeling that Corbyn will take some kind of victory from the result.

    I think more young people will vote because there are a number of Labour policies that will be worth a lot of money to them. Likewise, if young people don’t vote in high numbers at this GE then it seems unlikely young people ever will.

    I think there will be another GE in about 2 years.

  17. It is also possible that Con voters don’t feel the need to come out and say it but Lab voters do. Certainly the younger ones feel the need too crow it to the skies. Much has been said of the privacy of polls but they were private last time and still wrong. It is not therefore logical to dismiss the possibility of a repeated ‘shy Tory’ phenomena (however you wish to define ‘shy’).

    For that reason I find it difficult to lend credence to the ‘but polls are private’ argument.

    I suppose we will only see on the day.

  18. @ADRIAN B

    Why did it fall in the first place from the early 1990s? Youth turnout used to be over 65%. Some blame the lack of a clear choice. It’s one of those fascinating conundrums!

  19. @ADRIAN B

    Why did it fall in the first place from the early 1990s? Youth turnout used to be over 65%. Some blame the lack of a clear choice. It’s one of those fascinating conundrums!

  20. oops – having problems with my trackpad – sorry

  21. Is this election a referendum on Diane Abbott?

    I think there are much bigger issues….

  22. SCEPTIC VOTER

    As previously flagged, ICM (at least) have weighted heavily to account for this. Hence vast difference between raw and headline VI (one of several sig. weights).

    Nate Silver’s piece on this is also informative.

  23. Rob Sheffield

    While YouGov’s predictive model could be absolutely wrong the rest what you wrote is just ignorance of the methodology (i.e. you don’t know what you are saying).

    YouGov’s model can be wrong for three reasons (methodologically)
    1) The underlying data is flawed – we don’t know, but they are testing it.
    2) The post structuring of the data (by type of constituencies and type of respondents) is flawed. They actually don’t say much about it, so one can’t engage really. I guess there are a huge number of variables used here.
    3) The hybrid Monte Carlo, instead of reducing the distributional error in the sample relative to the population increases it. It’s possible, but it’s a necessary step because of the post structuring and the small sample per constituency.

    You see most of the principles come from Gosset, and if you think Guinness is good, then it is largely because of some of the methodologies used by YouGov in their predictive model. But, of course it could have gone completely wrong.

  24. The reasons are think the UKIP vote might flee to Labour is

    (a) having got Brexit they want to get rid of austerity

    (b) they want police numbers and NHS properly funded

    We shall see. couple of days more to go …

  25. On polling averages, a 4% swing to the Tories would mean the polls under-estimate their weighted voting intention (before turnout filters) by 11%.

    A ‘brave’ prediction.

    People asking about youth turnout, and what evidence is there of it being higher than 2015. A lot actually.

    Before the campaign YouGov had 18-24 voting intention at just 44%. But it has gradually risen in the campaign as young people have engaged and is now at 66%.

    YouGov invested a lot of money correcting their panel, particularly young people, to bring in people who were not that politically engaged. If they were using their 2015 panel reported voting intention would be a lot higher.

    The increase in youth turnout is a very real phenomenon.

    One of the reasons ICM and ComRes are going to be rather embarrassed come polling day. That said, even YouGov downweight youth voting intention to 51%, the same as the 2010 GE.

    If young people really do come out at anything like 60% turnout, then frankly it’s going to be a gamechanger. All polls will be understating LAB support.

  26. Given the now deeper analysis of TM’s record as Home Secretary I think it is only logical that voters are putting DA as the billed future HS under deep scrutiny at this time also. It is to be expected

  27. Is Diane Abbott ok? Something’s wrong.

  28. @NICKP,

    The counter argument to UKIP votes going to Labour is the best Lab can get in this election is a hung parliament, propped up by SNP and Libs, who will push a cancelling Brexit agenda as a price of compliance.

  29. CambridgeRachel

    Yes – I also remember those interviews with Portillo and Abbott did come over as very reasoned and authoritative. But such a different format. Snuggling up to Portillo, no pressurised questions, just friendly chit chat and two opponents being friendly with each other. Having said that, I do wish there was more of this sort of thing – a relaxed format with politicians able to say what they really think, rather than just being concerned with how many votes they will rack up or lose. Fantasy land I know.

  30. I doubt Abbott’s interview will have much impact.

    Frankly I thought it was her worst during the campaign as it showed that she wasn’t even vaguely familiar with a report that shadow Home Secretary should have known like the back of her hand well before the election campaign without pre interview prep. It wasn’t brain freeze this time.

    As I say though, probably little effect.

  31. CMJ

    I find it incredibly disrespectful to the reason that concert took place, and the pain involved, that someone who participated should be so full of their sense of self-worth that they slag off someone who didn’t play.

    It just looks like a very petty bit of point scoring, totally at odds with the occasion.

  32. SCEPTIC VOTER

    But all polls now hugely correct for 2015 errors. All of them now heavily uplift the CON lead except for one – Survation.

    But Survation report ‘certain to vote’ turnout at 51% for young voters, and 80% for older ones. So it can hardly be said to be flattering the figures.

    To believe that there is STILL an error in favour of CON, you have to believe that the underlying voting intention figures are 12% out. That’s pretty crazy considering the changes made to things like the survey panels.

  33. IAN + others
    “She was on channel 4 as well, she’s not well I think”

    Well I disagree. It looks rather like she hadn’t read the report she was being interviewed about, despite claiming to the contrary, and was desperately trying to avoid saying it. Interviewer had clearly cottoned on to that.

    People should watch this video. Perhaps DrMibbles might promote it, s/he likes to promote videos about Labour.

  34. OLDNAT

    Play fair. It just might get a mention of the grauniad on GMS.

  35. gove is in an ultra safe seat

  36. Abbott seemed to be on drugs….anyone considering her as a suitable candidate for Home Sec must be on drugs.

  37. ICM

    ICM raw figures show LAB a touch in front. But after weighting they are 11% behind.

    ICM are right to weight – but surely they are weighting these polls too heavily: just look at the 2015 voting figures. Those are too heavily Conservative after weighting. Same with the Brexit vote, after weighting it shows much too big a lead for leave.

    To my mind that seals it: ICM *are* weighting too heavily.

    Con are more like 6% or so in front.

  38. @rich

    Given Davidson’s tumbling approval ratings in Scotland I’m not sure why May would want to learn from her.

    Once again on Brexit, Labour are committed to it. The SNP accept Brexit but want Scotland at least to stay in the Single Market. The LDs want a referendum on the terms of Brexit. So why do you persist with talking about “cancelling Brexit”?

  39. Re turnout

    Are we allowed to talk about how many postal votes have already been returned vs this time in the last election. I have seen something mentioned somewhere else, but I don’t want to land in prison by repeating it?

  40. @ DRMIBBLES

    Care to say where it is you’re getting the stat that Yougov are downweighting young voters to 2015 levels? Everybody else seems to say that it’s ICM and Comres who are doing that, while Yougov has them a lot higher.

  41. @cambridgerachel:

    Rudd might need to be careful. But Surrey Heath was not close for Labour in 1997. Gove has no such worries.

  42. “The YouGov model predicts that the Conservatives will win 307 seats, with the smallest majority in High Peak, which is predicted to be a statistical dead heat with Labour. Of these 307 seats, nine are seats in which they are not the incumbent party (five from the SNP, three from the Liberal Democrats, and the former Ukip seat in Clacton).

    If the model is correct, then the Home Secretary Amber Rudd would lose her Hastings and Rye seat to Labour. The 325th seat for the Conservatives would be the seat of the Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron in Westmorland and Lonsdale. The 326th seat that would give the Tories a majority of one is the Gloucester constituency of Stroud, where the Conservative incumbent Neil Carmichael is defending a majority of 4,866, and bookmakers are offering odds of 1/25 that the Conservatives will win.

    There are a number of constituencies where common sense would suggest that the model is lowballing the Conservative vote share. For example, the model suggests that the Conservative Hugo Swire will lose by nearly 11 points in East Devon to an independent candidate, despite having held the seat since 1997 and defending a majority of 12,261 (22.4%).”

    https://sluggerotoole.com/2017/06/05/will-yougovs-election-model-be-vindicated-when-the-results-are-in/

  43. DrMibbles – What makes you so certain you are right? On my side. I’d love to just blindly accept ICM is right but in reality, I can’t say at all. Why are you so utterly convinced that young people will turn out in droves? What are you basing that on?

  44. Tim Farron has just said in the QT debate that he expects May to get a landslide on Thursday. Clearly he isn’t a fan of YouGov or Survation!

  45. I may be wrong of course, I admit that. I just accept the possibility that even with the changes taken the pollsters still may grab the politically engaged too much and that this may be over-representing a Lab vote. It may go the other way but history doesn’t reflect that and I don’t think it is something the pollsters can ever really eliminate due to the nature of the problem.

    Either way it will be a nail biter on Thursday

  46. @CR

    Well Rudd is probably the Cabinet minister most at risk.

    On the youth vote, we will only know on Thursday if they do turn out in sufficient numbers and vote as a bloc for Labour. I really hope they do, not just because it would favour the side that I support, but because it would be good for democracy. An active citizenry is crucial for a healthy democracy, and I think for too long our system has been skewed in favour of the older section of society.

    At Laszlo
    ‘You see most of the principles come from Gosset’

    Love it that you reference Gosset – my best friend is his great grandson.

  47. Re: Diane Abbott- I see Rachel’s point. She was nowhere near this bad 10-15 years ago?

  48. On youth turnout.

    At the moment it’s engagement, it may end up bing turnout. But at the moment it’s just engagement.

  49. Tristan

    Bet that went down well with the audience. He’s just trying to prop up his own vote which is in trouble.. or encourage anti Tory tactical voting. Silly really he should focus n promoting his own party and leave it at that

  50. Because the polling companies offer such a variant of options there is a guaranteed “polls get it wrong again” story for Friday. I’m beginning to thank that not weighting the polls quite so much might be better than weighting them wrongly.

    I still think that we’re heading for a hung Parliament. Labour have sewn up both the remainer vote and the more traditional ex-UKIP votes as well. Indeed, they have become a party of coalition again, containing hard-left, traditional Labour and the metropolitan vote at the same time: many people that Blair scared off have returned. With a leader without baggage they could approach Blair-like popularity again (they aren’t that far off now).

    I think the Conservatives will lose seats to both Labour and a few to tactical-voter empowered Lib Dems. A national share of 8% could still get a few seats if concentrated, as the SNP have shown with their 5%.

    Could be a small overal majority for the Conservatives, but I doubt it. They’ve been putting off their swing voters with one thing after another and now that Labour has signed up for Brexit, leavers have a choice. Whipping the vote for article 50 has been a very shrewd move by Labour.

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