There is only one GB poll so far today – ICM’s weekly poll for the Guardian, their penultimate of the campaign. Voting intentions are almost identical to their poll for the Sun on Sunday yesterday, with topline figures of CON 45%(nc), LAB 34%(nc), LDEM 8%(-1), UKIP 5%(nc). Fieldwork was Friday to Sunday, so will have been largely before the terrorist attack in London Bridge. Full tabs are here.

Survation will have a telephone poll out later tonight (probably midnight judging by past weeks’ timings) for Good Morning Britain, delayed for a day because of the terrorist attack. Other than that I expect most companies will now be looking towards their final call polls tomorrow, Wednesday or (if MORI stick their usual timetable) Thursday morning.


1,618 Responses to “ICM/Guardian – CON 45%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 5%”

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  1. What effect will the weather have on who turns out…not sure about the rest of the country but the north west is forecast heavy rain

  2. What effect will the weather have on who turns out…not sure about the rest of the country but the north west is forecast heavy rain

  3. baldbloke,
    ” of the 2 manifestos the one thats least believable is Labour’s.”

    Now here you are not attending to your own advice. In this election it is the conservatives who are presenting ‘project fear’. You just said Cameron was wrong to lead on how awful it would be if we left, but May is leading on how awful it will be if we leave too. Corbyn has the manifesto which says the economy will be OK under us because we will do it differently. He is the one offering hope of a better future. This is how opponents win, voters become disssastisfied with a government offering nothing but gloom and the tories have had two election wins to fix the economy already.

  4. @CANADA

    However, I think a Conservative majority is still a distinct possibility as the surge in Labour vote will only be in areas where they are already strong. It won’t create the vote shift in the shires that Tony Blair achieved in 1997.

  5. CANADA.
    hello to you and to Dexter.
    I think May has about 44% of the vote and is winning in many marginals, with Labour’s popular vote up in safe seats, which will help Corbyn in his next election campaign to stay on as Labour leader.

    You may know that in 1950, 1951 and 1955 Elections in UK that Old Labour did very well in its old heartlands but badly in very many marginal seats.
    Only Harold Wilson and Tony Blair have won elections in modern British History.
    Attlee, I think, belongs to an epoch which started around 1906 and finished in 1954

  6. As a canvasser, early in the campaign I got half a dozen or so older 2015 Labour voters saying they wont vote Labour this time cos of Corbyn (the odd one for Brexit).

    In the last 3 weeks I have had 1 from well over 100 I have canvassed and my fellow canvassers have had a similar drop off.

    Once canvassed, we don’t go back and so they will be in the returns as A or Tory so how many of those intending to borrow their vote to the Tories this time at the outset but in the end stick with Labour is significant and we have no way of knowing.

    Alternativley, It could be that old 2015 voters canvassed later intending to vote Cons were shier about this as the campaign unfolded as the narrative of My doing badly and Corbyn well took hold?

    I took the view based on the number of conservatives who said they would not vote Tiry again doing so in the end in 87 and 92 for example as evidence that many of the ‘ wont vote Labour while Corbyn is leader’ brigade would in the end vote for the party they had supported all their lives.

    Whether these drift back voters is enough with the former DNVs breaking heavily for Labour as well to stop a Tory victory I doubted but to prevent a land-slide yes .IMO, Majority less than 100 at the start and due to the campaign less than 60 on Thursday but let’s see.

  7. I wonder how reliable the exit polls are going to be?

  8. Just catching up on the comments from last evening, it seems the left have turned this into their own echo chamber and I think a few are going to be disappointed by the result on Thursday.

    @Spaceman is correct that posters on the right are drowned out by those on the left. Every Conservative party news feed I receive has already got 2000 Corbyn supporting comments, most nonsensical and with bad language. I simply don’t comment on them now, it’s pointless.

    I haven’t done my final forecast yet but I think @chrislane is on the money with his general forecast.

  9. Nowadays, I believe, there’s only one exit poll, jointly commissioned by the BBC and ITV and jointly carried out by a couple of pollsters (Mori and GfK, last time?). It was highly accurate in 2005 and 2010, less so in 2015 (but generally considered broadly successful – and certainly much closer than the conventional polls).

  10. to be fair and objective, corbyn’s audience was massive indeed but also it was
    a safe seat area

  11. There seems a lot of anecdotal evidence that door knocking feedback is not representative of the polls.

    So is the polling wrong…very wrong?

    Polling effected by cold calling?
    How does any pollster get any reliable telephone polling data when the vast majority of people just hang up when they realise its a cold call?

    Internet polling effected by activists?
    Surely as the campaign progresses activists get more involved and active anywhere they can. Even accounting for weighting and screening a massive influx of these on polling sites will surely effect the results

  12. In the last few elections my area has seen a large number of pro conservative posters but this time there are virtually none. I don’t believe those living there have changed their voting intentions but have either not been provided with posters because all the funding has been targeted elsewhere or they have been intimidated by threats of violence. Given the amount of money the Conservatives have generated in the last few weeks that spend must be going somewhere and linked to TM’s continuing visits to Labour constituencies suggests they are still expecting to pick up seats and don’t need to prop up votes in their existing seats. As with Brexit suggest the decision will be determined across the Midlands and North and you need to look there at where the spend is going.

  13. The Britain Elects Nowcast seem very odd.

    Their latest revision has a smaller con lead but they seem to have made no changes to the seat change probabilities?

    Many of these are at odds with Electoral Calculus as well, all very confusing?

  14. Hi all

    A newbie here…enjoying reading all the posts.

    Had a look at Reuters Factbox and they say a Kantar and Opinium polls are due today and Mori, Panelbase and Comres tomorrow.

    Not sure about the next Youguv one but I guess that should be pretty much all of them?

  15. Nicolas Bird,
    “They are issues I can certainly relate to as a labour voter.”

    The link you posted argues that people might lies to pollsters and therefore labour is getting too high a score, or pollsters are not being subtle enough in their questions to root this out.

    Another link yesterday talked about changes in the vote share between the parties, as if this was all the voters who existed, whereas it essentially ignores those stating they are undecided or so disengaged they will not vote. A third link observed that in US elections pollsters customarily post figures including an entry for the ‘dont knows’. (was it nate silver discussing why UK elections get it wrong so much?)

    Apart from disagreements about the policy itself, a big part of the war between Corbyn and his MPs has been about whether there exists a block of voters interested in left wing policies, hence the argument he could not win. His own contention is that such people exist, but have dropped out of politics all together for lack of anyone to support.

    Since this potential group isnt supporting anyone, they are currently being ignored by pollsters and can not be counted. Polls are plainly not representative of the electorate as a whole and are not asking enough disengaged people what they think. There are reasons why pollsters might want to do this, because if half your sample isnt voting for anyone it is escalating either the errors or the sample size needed to test the rest. But if there is any question these people might suddenly turn out, they have the numbers to reverse any election result.

    Whatever the arguments about turnout from declared voters, I dont see discussion about turnout from those who said they will not vote. Who are anyway being under sampled by pollsters.

  16. Many millions of voters are involved in small and medium sized businesses. Traditionally they have almost all voted Tory, and could be relied upon to do so.

    These people were the backbone of the party, supplied nearly all their local councillors and often canvassed, put up posters, leafletted, etc.

    The Tory national leadership has chronically neglected the interests of these people, preferring to curry favour with Big Business. HS2 rather than potholes.

    Brexit was very much a product of this neglect.

    In this election, small business owners remain very unlikely to vote for Corbyn, but they are distinctly unenthused by their Tory Westminster representatives. So they are not out canvassing, not putting up boards, not defending TM in the pub, and may not vote if it pours with rain on Thursday.

    Is it possible that Labour’s amazing performance in this campaign is largely due to an enthusiastic party membership, and that the Tories are suffering from disinterested local supporters?

  17. @Drmibbles

    I understand the YouGov turnout model just fine thank you.

    While turnout is weighted to 50ish % the 18-24s self reported certainty to vote is 85%. Which IMO makes it an unrepresentative sample.

  18. @Millie

    Must say, it’s interesting innit. Before the campaign, various people claimed that Labour’s big increase in membership didn’t necessarily amount to much. Now of course one wonders whether it’s had some real impact. it’s summat for the activistas to answer…

    Meanwhile it’s possible small business hasn’t just been neglected, but is none too enamoured of things like the business rates changes…

  19. I think the turnouts at Corbyn’s rallies are meaningless, in the same way counting the number of posters is meaningless. Considering this is a polling site, I can’t believe people are even talking about them. I think of all those massive rallies in support of refugees, while the polls showed that the majority of the country actually wanted LESS refugees not more. How about the Countryside Alliance march, hundreds of thousands of people descending upon London, yet the vast majority of people want fox hunting banned?

    If Labour win, it will be because of a desire for change amongst the great mass of people who don’t post political opinions on Facebook, who don’t put up posters, who don’t join rallies.

  20. @ Robert Newark

    There are lots of voices from the right on here but everything is relative I suppose ;). This voice from the left has felt for a week or two that this is a nine point Tory election, probably 42/3 to 33/34. That actually wouldn’t be so bad a result for Corbyn giving his starting position, though I am sure the Blairites will not see it that way.

  21. Nicolas Bird,
    ” If the labour activists thought that the election was going to be close then they wouldn’t be setting up for a party battle after the election ”

    And why not? This is an ideological war. There are two big issues at play at the same time, moving the party to the left and Brexit. Whatever the outcome, each faction will argue as it suits them that Brexit was the deciding factor or that policy was. Corbyn got his chance to fight on the policies he wanted, but everything in this election has been dominated by Brexit.

    Seems to me factions in both parties might not wish to win this election, whatever they are saying.

  22. It’s getting tiresome reading how the right is getting drowned out by the left on social media etc.
    My facebook page is full of attacks on the left from right wingers, many of it exaggerations or out right lies.
    Both sides of the argument have their idiots who are aggressive and abusive.Try the Daily Mail, Express comments section if you are from the left, hell even the telegraph can get feisty.

  23. I’ll be very surprised if the exit poll isn’t within 1.5% accuracy.

  24. One of the factors not being considered in the current UK election is that different cohorts of voters might turnout or not turnout for different reasons.

    The link to this Elections BC study, Who heads to the polls? Exploring the demographics of voters in British Columbia – March 2010:

    http://142.34.128.33/docs/stats/Who-heads-to-the-polls.pdf

    …discusses the fact that in the 2009 provincial election only 32% of the registered voters were actually consistent voters.

  25. Canada,
    I agree that Brexit was a vote for Change, specifically led by the outsider Nigel Farage, despite conservatives hijacking his campaign. Both labour and conservative have been at great pains to paint Corbyn as an outsider, and indeed engage a ‘project fear’ against hime.

    Freddo,
    I think May called the election as a test of public support for her brand of Brexit. yes, she might have been happy with a whopping majority, but losing completely would be the next best option for her. A choice would have been made. Getting back in on similar terms or worse and having suffered much loss of credibility would be a nightmare. It would leave her pushing economically questionable hard Brexit on only about 1/3 national support.

  26. PETE

    Yes both sides have idiots, its one of the sad things about this election is the lack of ability to actually debate and understand others point of view.

    For example, I am right leaning, I queried the tuition fees in the labour manifesto with a friend. All I asked was if it was a good idea to provide free tuition universally when so many go to university. By all means, means test or for selected courses etc.

    That is just my point of view. A couple of posts later and apparently I have been brainwashed because I don’t agree with that position followed by some phrase which would put this post into moderation.

    I am sure this is not a left an right thing but more symptomatic of the keyboard warrior mentality of social media.

    Just sad really, I genuinely like to understand others points of view even if I don’t agree with them I can respect them.

    Those response make this election so unpredictable, its hard to get a sense of perspective outside of your own bubble.

  27. Chrislane1945,
    “By the way on twitter there is a report the policeman who shot three terrorists has been suspended for an investigation into his conduct.”

    I thought the chief constable or whoever was being very defensive in his speech yesterday. Might just be procedure if you kill someone.

  28. The exit poll will be pretty much there so long as they have the right seats / polling stations like they did the last 2 times. there might be seats in play this time that have never been before so there will be some surprise results i’m sure. I’m inclined to go with the chap from the Mirror on Sky last night who dismissed Survation out of hand almost. Labour maybe piling up votes in safe London seats but it will be in the Midlands and North where this one is won. If they are in trouble in seats like Don Valley then there will be no hung parliament. My suspicion is that for all the shortcomings of the conservative campaign which has been too cautious and defensive from the off, is that Crosby has a handle on where the votes are and where the winnable seats are for them and they still remain confident of hitting those targets which is why there seems no sense of panic at all.

  29. @newforestradical

    That’s exactly my prediction for the Con/Labour vote

    Here in my SW London marginal it’s chucking it down but driving my wife to the station, then my son to one school for his GCSE and now my “It’s wet dad!” daughter to her school (so much for the Paris agreement) it’s noticeable how many Lib Dem posters are sprouting up. I think the three SW London seats could go either way.

  30. I put a post in another thread but I was talking to a Labour colleague who is helping campaign in a nearby seat in the North of England. Held by the Tories with a majority of under 4000 ( I got the figures wrong in my other post), he says that the Labour candidate is not hopeful at all, though he continues to fight. My colleagues prediction is a Tory majority of 60 or so, in fact I told him I was more optimistic about his party’s chances!

    That’s a view from one side, would be good to hear from any ground troops from the Tory side;-)

  31. @Danny

    Saw your posts a few thousand posts back about influence of polls on voting and read them with interest.

    Reflecting further on it, basically there’s the idea that if voters think their party is way ahead, they might become complacent and not turn up. Or if too far behind, might lose heart and give up.

    Whereas if it’s close, they might be motivated to vote to make sure.

    Consequently the theory would be that if this is the case, it might assist a party if peeps think it’s close. The problem with this of course, is that it being close might help the other party too…

  32. @Carfrew

    ‘Meanwhile it’s possible small business hasn’t just been neglected, but is none too enamoured of things like the business rates changes…’

    Indeed. The Tory manifesto promise was to make the business rate revaluations more frequent! So your rates bill will be upped more regularly. No respite! They thought we would be pleased. More visits, more expensive appeals, more form-filling. Great.

    No-one involved in running a small business read that manifesto before it was published – of that you can be quite certain.

    Which says it all really.

  33. I am mightily puzzled by this idea that factions within parties don’t want to win. All I’ve seen in Lab is people from across the spectrum shoulder to shoulder, determined to win, or give it our absolute best shot. With the exception of one paid (and very young) party employee I have met nobody who thinks Corbyn would make a worse PM than any conceivable Tory. If we can win, the party will be delighted, Blairites and Corbynistas alike, bar a very small rump of contrarians.

    I haven’t seen any energy for a ‘party battle after the election’ because all the energy is in the election itself. Of course, there will be positioning after the event: I’m sure this is always the case, in every party.

    IMO there are two types of non-voters, those who don’t have a candidate they can support and those who don’t give a monkey’s. The latter will never vote, and in any case are often not registered. I’d say they are the majority, even amongst those registered. Amongst the former group, I think the advent of Corbyn has made a considerable impact: I suspect Farage made a similar impact with a different group of non-voters in the past.

  34. http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/general-election-2017-seats-watch-13142522

    The MEN suggesting that Labour are having in problems in 5 fairly safe Greater Manchester seats, with only the (student-dense) Withington firming up. I’ve never had so many Labour leaflets through the door in a GE election and none of them have the party leader on them (in a 10k majority Red seat). What do both of those anecdotal facts indicate?

    It might explain why JC was campaigning in 10k majority northern seats yesterday where if he was truly at the game he would be in Tory marginals? Is JC just going for vote share at this point?

  35. @Carfrew

    I should have made it clear – more frequent rate revaluations will mean more bureaucracy and costs for business and government, and will mean increased rates bills earlier for small businesses – so a tax hike.

    Brilliant vote winner…

  36. @Millie

    I really don’t get the business rates thing. Small businesses already have it tough from property price hikes inflating rents, from utility bill hikes, from online competition… Why whack them with business rates as well? I’ve yet to hear a decent defence of it, or any defence at all frankly…

  37. @CambridgeRachel @Paul Croft

    “To be absolutely honest I wouldn’t be voting labour if it wasn’t for Corbyn.”

    Same here. I was going to join the thousands of WV if PLP ousted Corbyn.

  38. Scottish Westminster voting intention: SNP: 41% (-1) CON: 26% (-3) LAB: 25% (+6) LDEM: 6% (-) (via @YouGov) Chgs. w/ mid-May.

  39. @ DANNY and CHRISLANE

    As far as I understand it armed police are always put on suspension after they fire their weapon, let alone kill someone. I wouldn’t read anything in to it.

  40. Maybe there’s poling in it. I suppose it must be possible to find someone in favour. Amazon for example…

  41. Daniel,
    “While turnout is weighted to 50ish % the 18-24s self reported certainty to vote is 85%. Which IMO makes it an unrepresentative sample.”

    All the reported certainty to vote figures for different age groups seem too high.

  42. polling on it…

  43. LIZH

    the trouble is the PLP will remain divided after this and that might be the worst of all worlds for labour. JC might avert a blood bath and may even poll more votes than Milliband so can claim some success on that and so can avoid resignation, but he will lead a divided party at Westminster, and 5 yrs is a long time to stave off opposition like that. Also the UK doesn’t elect divided parties .. so labour will be stuck in no mans land however much you might like him.

  44. @Guymonde

    ” I have met nobody who thinks Corbyn would make a worse PM than any conceivable Tory”

    Possibly because you don’t go out canvassing or you move within the same group of people.

    If you look at Halifax, a seat the Tories are targeting , on the TV there were life long Labour voters who were going to vote Tory.

    There were also life long labour voters who were going to still vote for their labour MP as they liked them but thought Corbyn would make a terrible PM and would prefer TM , but couldn’t bring themselves to vote Tory regardless

  45. Hi. Using this tool https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2017/may/08/general-election-2017-poll-tracker-who-is-in-the-lead

    I have separated out the Survation and YouGov polls to June 3rd to see the trend and swing changes of those Polls.

    From Jan 17 to April Labour was consistently Polling close to -6% on the 2015 GE

    Conservatives were polling close to +5% on 2015 GE a differential of 11%.

    In April the Conservatives jumped to +11% – This coincided with a sudden drop in UKIP polling from 11% down to 5% – Con + 6% ~ Ukip -6% – At which time May then called the Election.

    The moment the Election was called Labour rose from -5% to -1.4% – UKip fell further to 3%.

    By mid-May the Con. rose slightly to +12% and have been falling ever since. By June the Conservatives are now somewhere between + 3 to +5% above their 2015 GE result.

    Ukip is now steady at 4% which is down -7% on the GE

    Combining these two shows a net loss on the 2015 GE of -3%

    Meanwhile Labour has moved from -7%, just before the GE being called, to be close to +9% higher than in 2015 – this is +16% from where Labour was polling in January 2017

    Based on two Polls Survation and YouGov and comparing apples with apples this shows or a Net turnaround (swing) of about 19% – or one in five being polled.

    That this has happened in 6 short weeks is incredible and obviously not expected by anyone, anywhere.

    No matter which Party ends up forming Government next, the real winner in this GE is the Voters and the UK overall.

  46. Anyone know whether we expect a final Welsh poll this week?

  47. @Thomas. Thanks for the link. If Labour lose any of those seats then they are in trouble. However, the article hints (albeit indirectly) that they MAY be able to hold onto them.

  48. @Millie

    That said, I don’t understand why Labour don’t do more for the self-employed, what with it being a socialist mode of production an’ all. Politicians should be made to undergo training and acquire a licence, passing tests in understanding what socialism is, and liberalism, and conservatism because they all seem very confused about it all…

  49. RE small business.

    The minimum wage increase to £10 will be business critical. Most will have to lay of staff that have become friends or shut their business down. Small business are NOT going to go to labour!

  50. “I’ve never had so many Labour leaflets through the door in a GE election and none of them have the party leader on them (in a 10k majority Red seat). ”

    This one is easily explained – the leaflets and the planned sequence of drops would have been arranged at the start of the election. There’s little (although there is some) room for movement after the start of the campaign, but most of the approach would have been in place shortly after the election was announced – so, at the end of April when the VI appeared to be massively in favour of the Conservatives.

    Many Labour MPs at this point, having no faith in Corbyn, decided that the best they could do is to not mention him on their leaflets. You’re seeing leaflets and an approach that was decided before the Corbyn surge.

    I think we can pretty much conclude that there has been a Corbyn surge, but whether it is large enough to overtake the initial Conservative VI or whether or not it is in the right regions of the country or whether or not it will materialise in the polls are all points up for discussion. The leaflets are not, in any way, evidence that can be presented to support one or another point of view on those three points.

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