There is only one GB poll so far today – ICM’s weekly poll for the Guardian, their penultimate of the campaign. Voting intentions are almost identical to their poll for the Sun on Sunday yesterday, with topline figures of CON 45%(nc), LAB 34%(nc), LDEM 8%(-1), UKIP 5%(nc). Fieldwork was Friday to Sunday, so will have been largely before the terrorist attack in London Bridge. Full tabs are here.

Survation will have a telephone poll out later tonight (probably midnight judging by past weeks’ timings) for Good Morning Britain, delayed for a day because of the terrorist attack. Other than that I expect most companies will now be looking towards their final call polls tomorrow, Wednesday or (if MORI stick their usual timetable) Thursday morning.


1,618 Responses to “ICM/Guardian – CON 45%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 5%”

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  1. So Conservatives holding steady in mid 40’s I am expecting then to end up on about 48 with Labour on 31% since Tory’s always do better than predicted and labour worse.

  2. Just a quick point on the YouGov model, not sure how much this has changed since it was launched, I’ve not really been checking there numbers.

    Saturday it has Torys confidence interval 38-44. Today its 39-45

    Labour was 36-42 but now dropped back to 35-41.

    Yet the torys seat share has still gone down.

    Would this mean YouGov has the tory vote share going up but losing more seats? so more tactical voting?

  3. Are they allowed to publish polls on Election Day before 10 pm ? Thought no reporting was allowed

  4. @RJM: I think ICM are already trying to account for that with some of their adjustments (reallocating past voters, turnout targeting)

    John Curtice has tweeted a Scottish poll by TNS / Kantar. As usual with them, the fieldwork is a bit dated because they carry out interviews face to face. Basically shows the same kind of picture as the YouGov Scottish poll in mid-May.

    “New @tnsbmrb #scotland #ge17 poll. Con 28 Lab 21 LD 5 SNP 43. Fwork 10-29.5.17. No previous recent reading.”

    https://twitter.com/WhatScotsThink/status/871797094662766593

  5. LMZDEE

    Answered on prev thread.

    Short Answer

    Don’t read too much into the numbers jittering around.

  6. @James

    Guardian leading article in tomorrow’s edition urging Labour voters to vote SNP tactically to keep the Tories out in Scotland.

    On those recent polling figures you published, I would think that’s a very sensible strategy if you’ve got your eye on the bigger, UK wide picture.

  7. Well one thing is for sure.

    Some of the polling companies are going to very happy.

    Some of the others are not.

  8. What would that Scottish poll mean seat-wise?

  9. Thursday for MORI, are they allowed to do one on Polling day ?

  10. Lots been said about the different turnout weightings. I’ve been doing some research and the average of the eve of election polls has always overstated Labour’s VI by around 3% points. The only election where this was NOT true was 2010, where it was pretty spot on. The average of the eve of election polls tends to get the Cons spot on (apart from 2015 where it underestimated the Cons by 3%).

    So my theory is that with all the changes in guessing turnout the average of all of the eve of election polls will be pretty much spot on, but if you have a hunch Labour is still being overstated knock 3% off that average (which is, incidentally where ICM are so they maybe the closest).

    In NO election since 1997 has the average of the eve of election polls understated Labour’s actual VI.

  11. 40-snp
    30-tory
    21-lab

    These are the crossbreaks in the iCM poll which basically is the same as the kantar poll tweeted by curtice. seems scotland has decided.

    if this gets moderated i am big trouble with AW !

  12. Tories 11% ahead? I don’t believe it! That’s great news. I expect the Lib Dems to gain loads of seats. This clearly shows Labour in the ascendancy. Theresa May can finally relax etc. etc.

    It’s getting to the point where the entire concept of polling is pointless when so many companies can do fieldwork so close together and yet come out with wildly differing predictions.

    I expect another massively public autopsy after the results on Friday.

  13. Adrian The pollsters have already taken this into account and may have overstated their weightings. With ICM the Con lead would only be around 4%. Having taken into consideration Labour overstatement such as ylunger voters not turning up at the polling stations the Con lead is stretched to 11%

  14. Billythefish. I concur.

  15. Steady, no movement

  16. Update on the Banksy “offer” (BBC):

    “An offer of a free Banksy print to people who vote against the Conservatives on 8 June is being investigated by police.

    Avon and Somerset Police have received a number of complaints over the secretive street artist’s offer. Applicants from six Bristol constituencies have to send him a ballot paper photo showing a vote against the Tories to get the print.

    A disclaimer states the print was “a souvenir piece” which was not in any way intended to influence voters but was for “amusement purposes only”.

    But police said anyone taking part in the offer could be prosecuted.”

  17. @Thomas:

    On UNS, that would give SNP 48, Con 8, LD 2, Lab 1.

    http://www.scotlandvotes.com/wshare/fgaxxlhtf0

  18. So the unweighted numbers put Labour slightly ahead, but the weightings bring the Tories a whole 11 points ahead? Is that credible? What assumptions are ICM making re: youth turnout relative to GE2015?

  19. @billythefish

    “I expect another massively public autopsy after the results on friday”

    Well, not that public. I expect a proportion of the public will be looking at the actual result with mixed feelings of elation or revulsion depending on their leaning. The rest of the public will just get on with their lives completely indifferent to the whole affair. The polls will largely be forgotten apart from people like us on here.

  20. Given the range of “fudge factors” (thats really what they are) that are applied by the different pollsters, the only useful info as far as I can see is in trends within the pollsters own polls; comparing different polls to each other seems pointless given the range of methodologies/fudge that is applied to each.

    So this poll tells us is that not much has changed over the last few days. Maybe people are settling into their position – I know I have, bored of the negative partisan narrative that defines politics now (and probably always).

    Not too much longer now, thank goodness.

  21. The only real thing to look at is the shift from the prior poll by the same outfit and how long ago that prior poll was carried out. So whether the gradual shift to labour is continuing or whether its stopped.

    The data is just useless for anything else. The context of the election is too different and the polling methodologies too untested to tell us anything more.

  22. @Billythefish

    I refer you to this article

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-the-u-k-polls-skewed/

    “On average among the various survey firms that published both results, the headline numbers have been 4 or 5 percentage points more Conservative-leaning than the raw version of the polls. By comparison, these adjustments moved the results by only 1 or 2 points toward Conservatives in 2015”

    So be careful about double counting, as that adjustment has already been done for you.

  23. STADIUS.
    good evening to you. I think the ‘youth vote’ will be small as it is normally.
    TONYBTG:
    Hello to you. I agree with you about political obsessives.
    Attlee, Wilson and Blair understood that the vast majority of English (and I mean English voters) are not overtly ‘political’

  24. @STADIUS

    That its exactly the same and unchanged.

  25. YouGov’s polling on the terrorist atrocities may be of interest to some.

    The public perception is that 18% believe they will benefit the Tories, 12% Labour, 30% nobody:

    https://yougov.co.uk/opi/surveys/results#/survey/0ede9370-49dc-11e7-a15d-5af2cb29c435/question/5f925db0-49dc-11e7-94a8-2ab0a50a8b9c/toplines

  26. It’s hard to say why the Guardian bothered commissioning their own poll, rather than just jointly commissioning one with the Sun. (I know, they perhaps don’t speak to each other that much.) But it is still nice to know that when ICM repeated the poll a day or so later, they got pretty much identical figures – this suggests that neither poll has a sampling error… Whether the methodology is correct, of course, is another question entirely, and you could tell from his comments that ICM boss Martin Boon couldn’t say for sure himself.

  27. stadius

    Either you or I need to go to specsavers. I read the ICM unweighted as having the tories 4 ahead of labour.

  28. Interesting checking some constituencies on You Gov against Odds
    Canterbury You Gov Toss up – Lab 43 Con 41 – Odds LAB 25-1
    Ipswich You Gov Lean Labour LAb 46 Con 40 odds LAB 9-1
    Peterborough YOU Gov Con 46 Lab 46 Odds Lab 12-1
    Northampton North yOUGOV Con 44 Lab 43 odds Lab 12-1
    Dover YOU Gov Lab 43 Con 42 Odds LAB 25-1
    Filton & Bradley Stoke Con 47 Lab 45 odds Lab 16-1
    Broxtowe Lab 45 Con 45 Odds Lab 10-1

    Some of these especially the south Coast seem so unlikely. Surely those working on the ground would detect this and the odds would shorten. Unless youGov detected something no one else is picking up seem to be fantasy results. We will see

  29. Just had a penguin…

    Why was the penguin so popular? Because he was an ice guy.

  30. Still no one has given me an objective reason for why they think the youth vote is going to be 55% (as in 2010) rather than 45% as in most elections. Just saying “Young people like Labour’s tuition fees offer” is not an objective reason for predicting 55% youth vote.

    Is the stated enthusiasm for Labour higher? Is the likelihood to vote higher? And when that likelihood is weighted to past ACTUAL voting is it higher? Those are objective reasons to predict the youth vote (which of course may turn out to be wrong.

    So far on these threads I’ve been told objective reasons are 1/ Corbyn is great, 2/ he was cheered at the Libertines concert and 3/ Tuition fees policy is great. None of these cut it for me.

  31. @SSSimon

    That underwhleming for all parties.

    Seeing as most people view things through the filter they already have, this incident will probably just reinforce the world view they already have.

  32. Underestimating the Conservative vote.

    The polls were massively wrong in 2015. Of several reasons given, one that resonated was “shy Torys”. In other words people who were a little embarrassed to actually admit they were going to vote Conservative.

    I think this may be even more accentuated in this GE.

    I’m not a huge face book user, but I have noticed that anyone who suggests they may be voting for the “Blue” team, is met with a diatribe of abuse. This simply doesn’t happen to those who say “I’m voting Labour”.

    If you’re a Tory you’re perceived as selfish, self-centred, uncaring, cold and heartless. So why would someone who is sensible, but sensitive, volunteer this information? They won’t; they’ll quietly mark their “x” next to their Conservative candidate and keep quiet.

    I think that TM will achieve an 80+ majority. No magical insight I’m afraid, just a sense that Jeremy Corbyn repels a lot of people.

  33. @ADRIAN

    Look at the register to vote data. If you did you’d find a a very marked uptick among the young when it should be going down, due to a smaller available pool or unregistered young voters due to having two major elections in the prior two years.

  34. Crossbat11: “Guardian leading article in tomorrow’s edition urging Labour voters to vote SNP tactically to keep the Tories out in Scotland.
    On those recent polling figures you published, I would think that’s a very sensible strategy if you’ve got your eye on the bigger, UK wide picture.”

    The Guardian has been howling about how Brexit will damage the Union – but recommends voting SNP to damage Brexit.

    Brexit is its big concern – and has always been basically comfortable with Scottish independence.

  35. If the Conservatives do well in Scotland, I think Ruth Davidson deserves huge credit. Seeing her speaking/campaigni next to May today, I thought she was absolutely marvellous. I hope May was watching very closely and making notes..

  36. @ CMJ

    Yes, seems people are pretty good at looking beyond party politics when it comes to incidents like this.

    Having said that, we know people are often poor judges of their own opinions. So there’s a chance it could have more impact than anticipated.

  37. Diane Abbott interview on sky earlier:

    https://twitter.com/Jamin2g/status/871812244014862336

    Not getting very good reviews on social media…

  38. JOSEPH1832
    Crossbat11: “Guardian leading article in tomorrow’s edition urging Labour voters to vote SNP tactically to keep the Tories out in Scotland.

    The SNP must be laughing their socks off. Not only taken all Labours voters and seats, but now picking up additional tactical votes from them. How Scottish Labour came to this I will never know.

  39. Thanks James.
    Tactical voting could make it interesting. If the Yoons gang up there would be seats to go around though with Blue gaining the most, whereas if the ABTs gang up then the SNP can more easily justify Indyref2 and thus a (semi)permanent Tory majority in rUK. For Labour that looks pretty unappealing either way.

    If Angus Robertson loses his seat I do hope the SNP parachute him back in somewhere else because he has been a highly effective Parliamentarian. Given how rattled TM has been by questions from the MSM and general public, it merely demonstrates how ineffective (IMHO) JC and Farron have been at PMQs for the last 12 months.

  40. She was on channel 4 as well, she’s not well I think

  41. I saw a post on here a few days ago that suggested polling companies receive public money, is this correct?

  42. “ADRIAN B
    Still no one has given me an objective reason for why they think the youth vote is going to be 55% (as in 2010) rather than 45% as in most elections.

    So far on these threads I’ve been told objective reasons are 1/ Corbyn is great, 2/ he was cheered at the Libertines concert and 3/ Tuition fees policy is great.

    None of these cut it for me.”

    That’s a surprise.

    As to your “question” – I imagine that it’s down to polling feedback.

  43. @Rich: “If the Conservatives do well in Scotland, I think Ruth Davidson deserves huge credit. Seeing her speaking/campaigning next to May today, I thought she was absolutely marvellous. I hope May was watching very closely and making notes…”

    I think we all know that May hasn’t been doing that.

  44. Thinking about odds in constituencies, and particularly those posted by Matt above – it seems that odds of 25-1 are not unusual. Now, if those odds are a reasonably accurate reflection of probability, in 650 seats around 26 of those bets will come off. If I could only identify which ones….

  45. Cambridge Rachel

    I think you’re right…

  46. ADRIAN B.
    Yes, i agree.
    The ‘youth’ are just not interested enough as a whole.
    They have far more going on ins their lives than going to vote.
    They do not do ‘dull’.
    Their culture seems to be formed by
    I phones. I pads/ misery gram/ snap chat/ face book and other things of which I am not aware/

  47. @rich

    “If the Conservatives do well in Scotland, I think Ruth Davidson deserves huge credit. Seeing her speaking/campaigni next to May today, I thought she was absolutely marvellous. I hope May was watching very closely and making notes..”

    ha ha – making notes as to who is gonner stab her in the back.

    But yes ruth davidson is one of the smartest of the tory team. Shes sharp, witty and personable. Definitely a contender for the leadership. Not sure the old school conservatives and ukipers will like her though – gay, social liberal, short hair – not the typical tory lady.

  48. Matt126

    Indeed that Filton Bradley Stoke ‘forecast’! Ditto Sheffield Hallam and Bristol NW. Plus others raised by those with actual local knowledge…

    The excuse given is that for every crazy forecast given in one party favour there is an equally crazy forecast in favour of the other party: simulated ‘tens of thousands if times’. So error is balanced out and only the underlying sentiment emerges through the fog of data.

    For me that’s not even the most tenuous aspect of their process. That would be these numbers and calculations aren’t based on random sampling. They recruited their ‘sample’ – a sample that very much so self selected (I observed one of YG invitations but chose not to respond).

    Anyway this argument has been done to death. 4 more days to see if YouGov have turned into polling maestros or not.

  49. For amusement, have we seen the tweet that Liam Gallagher sent about his brother not doing the Manchester benefit gig?

    https://twitter.com/liamgallagher/status/871629993020977152

    Warning: it contains strong language.

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