There is only one GB poll so far today – ICM’s weekly poll for the Guardian, their penultimate of the campaign. Voting intentions are almost identical to their poll for the Sun on Sunday yesterday, with topline figures of CON 45%(nc), LAB 34%(nc), LDEM 8%(-1), UKIP 5%(nc). Fieldwork was Friday to Sunday, so will have been largely before the terrorist attack in London Bridge. Full tabs are here.

Survation will have a telephone poll out later tonight (probably midnight judging by past weeks’ timings) for Good Morning Britain, delayed for a day because of the terrorist attack. Other than that I expect most companies will now be looking towards their final call polls tomorrow, Wednesday or (if MORI stick their usual timetable) Thursday morning.


1,618 Responses to “ICM/Guardian – CON 45%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 5%”

1 31 32 33
  1. @Paul Croft

    How many people do you know who have jobs, don’t bother to turn up and instead, hang around in town centres waiting for random visits from politicians, or sit at home waiting for knocks at doors? Or bunk off to rallies?

    The type of people Mrs May is aiming at are at work. Not sure what is “partisan” about pointing that out. It’s simply a fact. The person I was responding to didn’t seem to grasp that reality.

    You could argue that they were making a partisan point about Mrs May’s style of campaigning when they complained that she wasn’t trying to find people who weren’t at work in the middle of the day during the week. Why on earth would she be looking for people like that? They’d never vote for her in a million years, so it’s a waste of precious campaigning time!!!

  2. @ Candy
    @ Paul Croft

    I’m sure I’ve seen some polling data somewhere that there are lots of retired Cons voters who might have time on their hands in the middle of the day. Perhaps I was mistaken :-)

  3. @Paul Croft

    I was simply stating a fact. The type of people Mrs May is aiming at have jobs. They arn’t the type to bunk off and hang around city centres or at home hoping to meet random politicans. She knows that, which is why she is focused on her factory visits which will get covered in the local press, instead of knocking on doors in the middle of the day in a work week. The latter would be a waste of campaigning time.

  4. @Exile in Yorks

    She’s got the retired group in the bag already. It’s the in work folk she needs to turn.

    It’s not partisan to point out that she is focusing on a different audience to Corbyn. He’s aiming for students, the unemployed and people looking for freebies. She’s aiming for their opposites.

  5. Postal vote revealed!

    Dilemma for Bardin1!

    My wife is flying off to greece at 3am and she has left her postal vote for me to deal with.

    Before you even think it, no I didn’t peek…

    She told me she usually votes CON but has voted Labour because of the manifesto and Corbyn

    My dilemma

    It’s a CON / LibDem marginal

    So – should I post it or forget it?

    ………..only kidding, I will of course, with a heavy heart. post it.

  6. Candy
    If only working people voted in 2015, Ed Milliband would be PM.

  7. @aaron

    I presume your lauding of Bozza is equally sarcastic

  8. @ Candy

    “… she is focusing on a different audience to Corbyn …”

    Agreed, but your descriptions were getting a bit beyond demographic targeting and were straying into stereotyping.

    Anyway – there is a new thread.

  9. NEW THREAD

  10. @Candy

    “Most Tory voters work, they arn’t hanging around in city centres or at home, and they most certainly arn’t able to bunk off work to go to rallies, not if they want to get on in their job, promotions, good appraisals, payrises etc.”

    ———-

    Well, they could have rallies at weekends and during holidays!! The point being that it isn’t just whether they’re working, but the levels of enthusiasm and I’m sorry but Theresa didn’t quite see the same membership surge.

    The Momemtum peeps I met were working in the gig economy. Also, it may have escaped your attention but a lot of Tory voters are retired boomers with plenty of time it seems to hassle me in coffee shops and at gigs.

  11. @ Catmanjeff

    Thanks I understand.

    @Old Nat

    So there is not much in it between Con and Lab in Scotland and while SNP have dropped 9% since 2015, it is only about 5.5% since 2016 for the FPTP portion of the election.

    Labour are doing better than Conservatives in terms of 2016 election and so that might bode well for Glasgow?

    Looks like LD are done in Scotland with half decided support going to Conservatives.

    Note Ruth Davidson and Corbyn have same level of support, whereas TM and KD barely manage a quarter of the voters.

  12. I know we’re told to ignore the cross breaks on polls but I must say (as others have said) that Survation has some particularly wacky ones! I notice that Labour is down to gain around 35% or something in the South East (I’m sorry, I just can’t see that happening!) and I also noticed in the Remain/Leave tabs that they had a Leave percentage for the over 65s that was only in the 40s and below that of the group before them, despite the fact they actually voted 60% Leave! There were many other of these weird figures that make me take this with a huge pinch of salt.

  13. GEOFF
    Out of interest, and apologies for posting this question on here, but are they any UKPRers here living in America like myself? If so, do you know any way of watching the results at 9:55PM BST?

    If you have access to an android (pref KitKat or above) you should be able to download the app from Mobdro.com. There are problems with all the FilmOn channels, but currently a BBC ONE that’s not FilmOn exists. You may need to try both to find the “plain” one. If you get the FilmOn one first, back right out PDQ or power off the android and restart it.

    An alternate is to use https://robssatellitetv.com which is a web app that works on PC and android Chrome. It may work on other PC browsers. You have to register but the site is free to use and has most FTV UK channels.

    If both those approaches fail, if you have an Android, use a free VPN app, of which there are many. I usually use TouchVPN, available from the regular Playstore. You can then restart the android, and start the VPN. Then start the Playstore and it will wake up in the UK so that you can download both the BBC TV and Radio apps in their UK versions, allowing download of both radio and TV programmes, unlike the export versions. Off peak they work very well, but the system is likely to be close to capacity on the night you want it, so don’t hold your breath! Same process applies to the other UK channels’ catch-up apps.

    Finally, if you have a PC running 7 or above, you can get a number of free VPN connections? which allow you to run the regular BBC websites and watch live programmes. My laptop has just floated up to silicon heaven, so I can’t give you chapter and verse on how to set it up, but if you’re reasonably PC savvy it isn’t hard. If you aren’t, see if a teenager can help!

    Hope this helps.

    PS: I’m on my way back from my Spanish home to my Swiss one right now and hope not to need to follow my own advice as the Swiss are sensible enough to put the more important UK channels on all their cable networks. Not for us expats of course but for their own kids benefit.

  14. VPN: GATE to another country?

    Sounds like that might be useful for those wishing to portray themselves as being in another country.

    I’m sure a search might turn something useful up.

  15. Tonight’s Sun/Survey Monkey poll figures for best PM.

    Theresa May 55%

    Jeremy Corbyn 45%

  16. I’m not sure, but it’s possible the BBC site might allow worldwide streaming of news video for election coverage. I’m in the US and was able to watch in 2015.

  17. Mentioned on Monday it maybe worth looking
    at the LLOYDS share price in the run up to Thursday.

    Lloyds as a domestic UK bank is often viewed as a
    proxy for the wider UK economy, and in general terms,
    a Tory win is viewed as favourable to the share price.

    At the time of this post LLOYDS is trading Up just over 1%,
    there is also a slight tightening of the odds on a Tory
    overall majority. All subject to change!!.

  18. RE Million more voters, BBC lists highest uplift in the top 10 seats, I’ve looked into each one to see who holds each seat. My findings matches earlier thoughts that the uptake in new votes is already in labour safe seats. 6 of the top 10 are already safe LAB holds.

    Of the others, as an example. Canterbury had 53k turn out, BBC reports 10% increase here. So 5.3k extra votes, but the majority by the CON’s is 9.7k.

    Similar with Brighton, which is a heavy green hold and increase could not alter the green majority. (assuming green’s keep their vote)

    The only win for LAB could be Leeds NW?

    Leeds NW – LIB (36%) vs 30% Labour
    Bethnal Green and Bow – LAB 61%
    Poplar & Limehouse – LAB 58%
    Leeds Central – LAB 55%
    Wolverhampton SE – LAB 55%
    Bristol West – LAB 35%, Green 26%.
    Brighton Pavilion – Green 41%, LAB 27
    Canterbury – CON 42.9%, LAB 24%
    Tooting – LAB 55%
    Bath – CON 37%, LIB 29%, LAB 13%

    Thoughts? Do we have breakdown/source for all seats with voter increases other than top 10?

1 31 32 33