On the final Saturday night of the campaign I expect we’ll see plenty of polls. We already have figures from Opinium and ComRes. I know were are definitely due a new YouGov poll for the Sunday Times, ICM for the Sun on Sunday and Survation (presumably for the Mail on Sunday), and I’d expect a new ORB poll for the Sunday Telegraph too.

So far Opinium for the Observer shows topline figures of CON 43%(-2), LAB 37%(+2), LDEM 6%(-1), UKIP 5%(nc). Fieldwork was on Tuesday and Wednesday and changes are from a week ago. Again, we see the Tory lead continuing to drop down into single figures. Full tabs are here.

ComRes for the Sunday Mirror and Independent has topline figures of CON 47%(+1), LAB 35(+1), LDEM 8%(nc), UKIP 4%(nc). Fieldwork was Wednesday to Friday and changes are from a week ago. The Conservative lead is static at twelve points (currently the equal largest any company is showing). Some of the other questions in the poll are less positive for the Conservatives – asked if they have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of politicians and parties Theresa May now has a negative score. 39% have a favourable view, 42% unfavourable, giving her a net score of minus 2 compared to plus 9 in February. Jeremy Corbyn’s net score is now minus 15 – worse, but significantly up from minus 33 in February. Full tabs are here.

I’m out tonight, so will update on the other four polls tomorrow morning – though feel free to discuss them here as they come in.

UPDATE: A brief update on the other polls, not going to post anything else tonight:

  • ICM‘s poll for the Sun on Sunday has topline figures of CON 45%(nc), LAB 34%(+1), LDEM 9%(+1), UKIP 5%(nc). Changes are from the ICM poll for the Guardian at the start of the week.
  • YouGov in the Sunday Times has topline figures of CON 42%, LAB 38%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 4%. Fieldwork was Thursday to Friday
  • ORB for the Sunday Telegraph have figures of CON 45%(+1), LAB 36%(-2), LDEM 8%(+1), UKIP 4%(-1). Fieldwork was Wed-Thurs with changes from a week ago.
  • Survation for the Mail on Sunday has topline figures of CON 40%(-6), LAB 39%(+5), LDEM 8%(nc), UKIP 5%(+2). Fieldwork was conducted wholly this morning, and changes are from Survations previous online poll in the Mail on Sunday. Tabs are here.

2,192 Responses to “Saturday night polls”

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  1. @david,

    I feel the same way about the term ‘progressive’.

  2. LMZDEE – would a narrowing lead be intruiging?!? Thats the established trend! An increased Tory lead, or LD revival would be more so…

  3. @S THOMAS

    Markw
    Actually the army do have battefield nuclear weapons as do the airforce and Navy. Hope your research in other areas is better.

    If you are talking about the British Armed Forces then only the Royal Navy have nuclear weapons. Neither the Army nor the Airforce do. In fact they no longer even possess a means of delivery.

    (22 years, combat infantryman, fire control and air strike specialist)

  4. @ Neil A

    Colville is very active down here but he’s a remainer, he comes from a military family which is a plus. Going to be very tight.

    Cornwall isn’t up for grabs for Labour, absolutely no chance of a win here.

  5. @ LmzDee

    Yes I would imagine that means a Labour boost, and maybe something to do with leader ratings.

  6. @AR558,

    I haven’t looked at the YouGov figures. I felt their methodology was a little uncertain, using lots of pools of voters that were individually too small to be weighted accurately. But yes I think it’s about right for Moorview.

    Sutton & Devonport is harder for me to guess. Colwell isn’t especially popular. He has a bit of a “Tim Nice But Dim” feel about him (remember that great sketch? “Hello, I’m Tim, can I count on your vote on Thursday?” “No”. “Oh, how about next Tuesday then?”)

    If the reports of very high new registrations in university areas are true then that should seal his fate. Plymouth University has been expanding like a tumour in recent years, and of course this election is during term time.

  7. @andy willliams

    dems good qualifications to back up your statement. What do you think of the Daily Mail story

    From a polling perspective I would guess it might dampen ‘likelihood to vote’ a little

  8. Interesting how people are comparing this with previous elections.

    For me, the comparison is with 2010, rather than 1987. Corbynmania has replaced Clegg mania but it has had the same effect; motivating the youth and seeing a sharp upturn for the party in the opinion polls during the campaign.

    In 2010, the actual results for the LibDems was about 4% less than you would have expected from the polls. I don’t know what weighting was given to the youth vote by the pollsters then (would be grateful if anyone can help me on that point; I think that it may help predict which pollster has got this right).

    To me, the Yougov approach of using the 2010 youth turnout is a good approach for this GE – although possibly only with the benefit of hindsight! However, whether or not we should be knocking 4% off the Yougov LAB figure depends on how their method compares to 2010.

  9. Paddy power have labour @2/1 Sutton and Devonport while cons 1/3. In Moor View Lab 11/2 and Con 1/10.

  10. “intriguing numbers”

    I am trying to work out what numbers would not now be “intriguing” given we are now so close to polling day. At least to those who follow the polls.

  11. Just a small heads-up for those of Conservative persuasion…

    It might be worth bearing this in mind: the majority of young people who wont vote – ie. those who are not undertaking some form of 18+ education – already live in SAFE Labour seats.

    Those who are going to vote… are far far more likely to live in marginals or Tory seats.

    So any improved turnout amongst young voters will affect Tory seats and marginals the most.

  12. @ RICHARD – thank you for the link.

  13. @Neil A

    It’s Oliver Colvile, not Colwell.

  14. Rich

    Valerie as hard left … – I almost wasted a mouthful of very good wine.

    It’s more about you I suppose.

  15. PHIL WHITE
    “The ineptness of this Tory campaign is staggering”
    My wife came in from the kitchen at lunchtime having listened to ‘Any Answers’, spitting feathers at people who were going to vote Labour because they were afraid of losing their £100 heating allowance – all of them on minimum wage or benefits, and so actually needing it. Others were shifting from Tory because the £100,000 limit meant that ‘they would lose their house if taken into care’, apparently totally unaware that as things stand they would keep only £24,000.
    She’s normally not very interested in politics, but as we are of an age when this might affect us, we have followed the details. Her solution was that universal suffrage should be abandoned!

  16. ICM will be a large CON lead. They use the same turnout model as ComRes. It’s broken (for this election at least).

  17. David in France

    Evidence?

  18. NEIL A

    Plus there has been an app giving student’s advice where to register to give them biggest impact. As it is likely to be more marginal that 95% of students home towns there will be easily enough to overcome the 523 maj (1.1%) only needs 0.6% swing. I think we’ll see alot in University towns closer to 8-10%. So Lab could end up with a Big Maj there.

  19. David in France:

    Honestly! You said:

    “Just a small heads-up for those of Conservative persuasion…
    It might be worth bearing this in mind: the majority of young people who wont vote – ie. those who are not undertaking some form of 18+ education – already live in SAFE Labour seats.
    Those who are going to vote… are far far more likely to live in marginals or Tory seats.
    So any improved turnout amongst young voters will affect Tory seats and marginals the most.”

    Given all the fact in there its hard to ignore it. Your kind of saying that the youth who are most likely to vote are not based in London but based in teh Shires or more Tory areas.

    The other conclusion is that what you’re written, and my response, is just garbage given its plucked out of thin air

  20. @Bantams

    Thanks, and also thanks for correcting me on Oliver’s surname. I pass his office on Exeter St very often so should have it fixed in my head by now!

    I am less certain than you about Cornwall. I have a feeling St.Ives and Camborne&Redruth might be close. But you’re probably in a far better position to judge than me.

    A lot is up in the air at the moment. There is a bit of a Cleggmania feel around. It may subside but it may be that Labour have managed to get the timing just right to capitalise.

    The Tories don’t really seem to have anything available to throw at it. Their only decent campaigners are either muzzled (Johnson) or tied up north of the Border. It feels like they’re waiting for Labour to screw up in some way, but the public mood and media environment have become so much more benevolent for Labour in the past fortnight that I think this is unlikely.

  21. @mrdibbles

    It’s not a single survey though. If you sign up to yougov you’ll potentially get several a week depending on how ‘rare’ your demographic is.

    The bulk of these will be the marketing stuff (brand perceptions and awareness etc) that is the pollsters bread and butter but seeing quite a few political ones throughout a GE campaign would not be unusual.

  22. @BARDIN1

    I rarely pay much attention to anything in the mdia regarding the Armed Forces. ((% of the time it’s wrong, written by journalists with no military background and even basic things like naming the kit correctly in the photographs is usually wrong. (In fact it does my bl00dy head in – same as actors wearing kit in such a manner that I used to jail soldiers for less.)

    As for Corbyn and nukes, I am not an avid supporter of nuclear weapons. Generals and Air Marshalls don’t like them cos the Navy gets extra money because of them. Cash jealosy – they’d prefer more tanks and planes. Corbyn though is a plank. A nuclear deterrent only works if your likely opponents know that you will not hesitate to use it, first if necessary.

  23. My guess is that ICM will be CON +2

  24. (i mean +2 increase in lead)

  25. JAMESB

    nah, yougov have a massive panel – I’ve been signed up for years and not recieved a single VI poll

  26. @laszlo,

    I like you, but why ow why are you not picking up about the comment ‘JC in no 10’,??
    Yet you are more worried about me biting, which I probabaly shouldn’t have done granted. That JC comment was almost trolling though l? No?

    Rich

  27. We are livid at May, can tell you that.
    too polite to post what I would like to say.

    However I do expect we will win the day, the northern marginals
    are key for us, Scotland we could easily pick up 3/4 seats.

    No room for a fraction of complacency before Thursday.

  28. DRMIBBLES

    I agree, even yougov are being to conservative anyone still using 43% 18-24 turnout is pretty much worthless at this point.

  29. Regional figures

    Comres vs 2015

    North East
    Tories 38% +13%
    Labour 49% +2%
    LD 8% -1%

    North West
    Tories 45% +14%
    Labour 44% -1%
    LD 7% n/c

    Yorkshire and Humber
    Tories 48% +16%
    Labour 43% +4%
    LD 4% -3%

    West Midlands
    Tories 50% +9%
    Labour 37% +5%
    LD 4% -2%

    East Midlands
    Tories 56% +13%
    Labour 30% -2%
    LD 9% +4%

    East
    Tories 56% +7%
    Labour 29% +7%
    LD 8% n/c

    London
    Tories 39% +4%
    Labour 46%+2%
    LD 6% -2%

    South East
    Tories 51% n/c
    Labour 28% +10%
    LD 12% +3%

    South West
    Tories 51% +5%
    Labour 30% +13%
    LD 16% +1%

    Scotland
    Tories 32% +17%
    Labour 15% -9%
    SNP 40% -10%
    LD 9% +2%

    Wales
    Tories 43% +16%
    Labour 32% -5%
    LD 6% n/c

  30. DAVID IN FRANCE
    Just a small heads-up for those of Conservative persuasion…
    It might be worth bearing this in mind: the majority of young people who wont vote – ie. those who are not undertaking some form of 18+ education – already live in SAFE Labour seats.
    Those who are going to vote… are far far more likely to live in marginals or Tory seats.
    So any improved turnout amongst young voters will affect Tory seats and marginals the most.

    For what it’s worth I disagree with this. I suspect a lot are in Uni / urban towns.

  31. Phil

    I’m 100% with you. My hope, and actually expectation, is a 20-50 seat Tory majority, May leads the party til Brexit signature and then someone else takes over to give them a 2-3 year run before the next election. She cant lead the Con party into the next election

    Adam

  32. Seems the Tory private polling has made them quietly confident of a ‘decent but not historic’ majority.

  33. I wonder if the 18-24 vote could increase, but the under 40’s could decrease.

    Purely anecdotel, but I’ve never seen so little enthusiasm about an election amongst my peers (late 20s to mid 30s). They typically vote labour, but have too many doubts about Corbyn that can’t be turned around by a few weeks of good campaigning, but are still in a “never Tory” mindset. Quite a few people have said they simply won’t vote to me, and they’re the sort of people who typically always would.

  34. Mactavish – where do you get that from?

  35. Someone mentioned Bath Earlier. On YouGov model it is nearly a 3 way marginal Con 35 LibDem 35 Lab 27

  36. @ AR558

    A lot of students in Plymouth have already gone home or are finishing exams, my niece went home 2 weeks ago. She’s already voted Tory by postal vote as have quite a few of her friends and some voted Labour purely on the basis of the bribe.

  37. BAS75

    That’s interesting as I work with lots in the 25-30 age bracket and everyone of them is LAB. There might be a few keeping quiet who wont vote but I would still expect more enthusiasm for JC than EM ever got out of them.

  38. Corbyn’s policies are merely the common sense views held by the vast majority of people in successful countries like Germany and Switzerland. There’s nothing “hard left” about them at all. When Corbyn is advocating the dictatorship of the proletariat, it may be time to call him “hard left”.

  39. BAS75

    The so-called surge in labour youth vote is highly overestimated. Sure they will pick up lot of young voters but they will mostly come from inner city urban/university areas with negligible impact over the marginal seats most of which have pretty low lib dem/green votes to sweep.

    I still remember the so-called surge in Lab youth vote under Ed Miliband after the lib dem betrayal. It didn’t happen then, it won’t happen next week.

  40. @ Richard
    The increases in constituency electorates may not be down to increases student/youth registrations. Population growth in Manchester Central and other seats where new housing is being built will have played its part too. Then there are the vagaries of individual local authorities in their approach to registration practices, a clear out of the electoral register may result in a dramatic fall in one year which then eases off in the following year as some of those whose names were removed will start to creep back on.

  41. @Adam

    On the BBC website, I said this might be the case when TM didn’t do the debate. No point if you’re comfortably ahead in private polling.

  42. 18-24 registration is only up 3% from 2015, from 60% to 63%. It’s an increase, but not huge. For what it’s worth I think the 43% figure will be comfortably increased, but not enough for JC to win.

  43. Terminology dislikes:

    I’m unhappy about the term “Labour”. It sort of… um….well, it sort of implies…….err…. well, sort of like suggests …. well, the Labour Party I suppose.

    By the way, I can’t be bothered keeping tabs on this but i’d be generally interested if those of the above persuasion would indicate what they think is going to be the result on Thursday, given these four possibilities**:

    [a] Conservative clear majority

    [b] Hung: C most seats.

    [c] Hung: Labour [sorry about using that word] most seats.

    [d] Labour: clear majority.

    I will start off with my own thinking, which is [A].

    ** Please note that I have arbitrarily excluded a Lib Dem clear majority ‘cos it was all my idea in the first place.

  44. BANTAMS

    I presume they can still vote by post if they were organised and register in Plymouth if their exams were done.

  45. Survation
    Britain Elects? @britainelects 15s15 seconds ago
    More
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 40% (-6)
    LAB: 39% (+5)
    LDEM: 8% (-)
    UKIP: 5% (+2)

    (via @Survation / 03 Jun)

  46. A general note of caution about the youth vote.

    The more enthusiastic the youth are about the left, the more quiet right-wing youths become.

    We are well past the point now where being identified as a Conservative supporter is social death in youth culture.

    That of course may cause some young people to move left to “fit in”. But it may cause others to mumble to themselves and express their views in the polling booth and nowhere else.

    To some extent I feel the same way about posters in windows. Despite my profession, there is usually a Tory poster in my window (my wife is a party member so it would be “hers” not “mine”). There is no way we would consider putting one up this year. Too much zealoutry out there.

  47. Britain Elects? @britainelects · 1m1 minute ago

    ? More

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 40% (-6)
    LAB: 39% (+5)
    LDEM: 8% (-)
    UKIP: 5% (+2)

    (via @Survation / 03 Jun)

    Ouch!

  48. AD/AS
    Corbyn’s policies are merely the common sense views held by the vast majority of people in successful countries like Germany and Switzerland. There’s nothing “hard left” about them at all.

    Ow please. This really is partisan tosh.

  49. @Bantams

    Half time in Champions League Final. 1-1. Excellent game. Just dropped in to get latest polls.

    “………….some voted Labour purely on the basis of the bribe.”

    Daily Mail visits UKPR again. Dear oh dear.

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