On the final Saturday night of the campaign I expect we’ll see plenty of polls. We already have figures from Opinium and ComRes. I know were are definitely due a new YouGov poll for the Sunday Times, ICM for the Sun on Sunday and Survation (presumably for the Mail on Sunday), and I’d expect a new ORB poll for the Sunday Telegraph too.

So far Opinium for the Observer shows topline figures of CON 43%(-2), LAB 37%(+2), LDEM 6%(-1), UKIP 5%(nc). Fieldwork was on Tuesday and Wednesday and changes are from a week ago. Again, we see the Tory lead continuing to drop down into single figures. Full tabs are here.

ComRes for the Sunday Mirror and Independent has topline figures of CON 47%(+1), LAB 35(+1), LDEM 8%(nc), UKIP 4%(nc). Fieldwork was Wednesday to Friday and changes are from a week ago. The Conservative lead is static at twelve points (currently the equal largest any company is showing). Some of the other questions in the poll are less positive for the Conservatives – asked if they have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of politicians and parties Theresa May now has a negative score. 39% have a favourable view, 42% unfavourable, giving her a net score of minus 2 compared to plus 9 in February. Jeremy Corbyn’s net score is now minus 15 – worse, but significantly up from minus 33 in February. Full tabs are here.

I’m out tonight, so will update on the other four polls tomorrow morning – though feel free to discuss them here as they come in.

UPDATE: A brief update on the other polls, not going to post anything else tonight:

  • ICM‘s poll for the Sun on Sunday has topline figures of CON 45%(nc), LAB 34%(+1), LDEM 9%(+1), UKIP 5%(nc). Changes are from the ICM poll for the Guardian at the start of the week.
  • YouGov in the Sunday Times has topline figures of CON 42%, LAB 38%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 4%. Fieldwork was Thursday to Friday
  • ORB for the Sunday Telegraph have figures of CON 45%(+1), LAB 36%(-2), LDEM 8%(+1), UKIP 4%(-1). Fieldwork was Wed-Thurs with changes from a week ago.
  • Survation for the Mail on Sunday has topline figures of CON 40%(-6), LAB 39%(+5), LDEM 8%(nc), UKIP 5%(+2). Fieldwork was conducted wholly this morning, and changes are from Survations previous online poll in the Mail on Sunday. Tabs are here.

2,192 Responses to “Saturday night polls”

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  1. @huckle,

    Not on twitter, so not me mate!

  2. Tigertanaka – except, of course, that the Mirror’s Kevin Maguire writes today why Labour just can’t win.

  3. Thanks Trigguy

    I guessed it wasn’t his real name, but I enjoyed it anyway – setting any political bias aside anything which encourages my kids to get involved in the democratic process is fine by me

  4. @RICH

    In the spirit of non partisanship I’m gonna keep that to myself on UKPR.

    @ADAM

    I have put some money on it . If I’m honest not alot but that says less about my confidence and more about the fact that I’m a right skinflint!

  5. @drmibbles
    “— Since then AW says they have spent a lot of money attracting less politically engaged young people to join their panels.
    — At the start of the campaign, just 44% of 18-24 respondents to yougov were ‘certain to vote’. So their panel was clearly improved
    — Since then it has increased to 62%, with a further 10% saying they are ‘9/10’ likely to vote”

    What do yougov do to keep track of how politically interested people are? Is there a risk that they’ve gone and turned their new disengaged panellists into engaged ones by asking them many questions on politics and thus stuffed up the sample without being able to track that?

  6. Just anecdote, but when I came upstairs to my computer just now my nearly-18 son had a bunch of friends round, mostly new voters, to play cards. They were discussing the leadership debates and the QT as the main topic of interest.

    I have two older kids. This hasn’t ever happened before in my household.

    So I’m suspecting, if YouGov are wrong, it won’t be because they weighted the youth vote wrong, but because there is something deeper about their samples.

  7. It looks like the conservatives have just dropped their pledge to not cut the armed forces size, and now plan to reduce troop numbers between 2,000 and 17,000.

    Will that have an effect on conservative voting enthusiasm?

  8. @ Adam

    Re: Net leadership satisfaction scores.

    If you look at the party cross breaks you will see (not surprisingly) that usually the leader of party X gets high scores from their own voters. Although this is not always the case (Corbyn for most of his term as leader for example, but not his recent scores).

    Furthermore, for the two main parties the Cons leader is normally viewed very negatively by Lab voters, and vice versa for the Lab leader.

    This makes the net score a useful proxy / cross-check for VI. Where the net leader satisfaction is way out of line with the VI gap it is an indication that something may be up. This relationship doesn’t really apply for the minor party leader – only for leaders who are potential candidates for PM.

    This was one of the main elements of Matt Singh’s analysis (published on the eve of the 2015 GE) that the polls were wrong and we were headed for a Cons win.

  9. @Phil white

    The Tories were behind Labour every step of the way before the financial implosion, both on spending, which they’d promised to match, and financial deregulation where they were asking for more. All governments get spend happy in the good times.

  10. JAMESB

    the idea that you turn someone into a politics nerd, who wasn’t previously interested in politics, by asking them to complete an opinion poll is…. curious

  11. What times the next one due ?

  12. Wait I have that wrong. Its cuts of up to 27,000 that is being considered.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4568632/Army-numbers-slashed-thousands.html

  13. The Comres figure to me is not reflective if they are weighting the youth turnout to the 43% of GE15. I think a baseline of 63% is much more realistic based on (http://hopenothate.org.uk/2017/06/03/young-people-think-election/)
    that means that 12pt lead is more like 8 pts once the correct turnout for the <25 used. I would expect using a similar adjustment that Yougov will be vclose to a tie maybe CON+1

  14. @LANCS OBSERVER

    Don’t read the Mirror but I suspect the editorial doesn’t say that. Equally there are plenty of Tory bashing columnist pieces in the Times/Telegraph at the moment.

    Is there anything/anyone that Kevin McGuire actually likes? :)

  15. As Rich himself said on a previous thread, he often gets put into moderation aka the naughty step.

    I guess AW is busy and has better things to do than cull his posts.
    Just ignore them.

  16. @Alexw,

    Trying not to be drawn but ok I’ll bite. If people are worried about the army, I don’t think they’ll switch to Corbyn given concerns around the nuclear deterrent etc. It won’t change anything.

  17. The army don’t have any nuclear weapons.

  18. @ Luther Blisset & Roger Mexico

    Thanks for info. At the end of US election only two pollsters were showing Trump likely to win and in fact he lost the popular vote.

    Clinton continued to visit all the places she needed to win the election right up until E-Day.

    Trump went to Minnesota, Michigan and Pennsylvania and the pundits laughed at him.

    Turns out Trump was right and the polls were wrong, though he did not win Minnesota (-44,765), he did win Michigan by 10,704 votes and Pennsylvania by 44,292.

    So the question in my mind is May following a pre-ordained script as Roger says or is she following a test for an E-Day Get-Out-The-Vote focus.

    The polls are not showing the likelihood of any gains for the Conservatives, in fact the exact opposite.

    If May expands her majority she will be bucking the trend of every single centre right politician who has faced re-election this year that I have tracked.

  19. Quite interesting looking at the English crossbreaks. These are quite large samples. Comres having an 11 point Tory lead and Opinium 5. Considering the vast majority of seats are English the midpoint in between both suggests some Labour gains. Would be interested in thoughts on this.

  20. @Valerie,

    Please leave it out with your constant partisan hard left posts posing as informed comment. No poll has shown ‘JC in no 10’ as you say. If it has, please explain the numbers behind your analysis to everybody. We are all waiting.

  21. SgThowie

    I dont usually get into that level of detail when looking at polls however, and I caveat this with it also being a hope of mine, that there has to be a good chance that Labour stack up votes in safe seats

    The reason I say this is that London was a remain strong-hold, as is Labour. May is making a lot of noise about being tough on Brexit so remain votes will move to Lab

    Adam

  22. @RICH

    Not trying to draw just curious and want the perspective of a conservative voter, since it have the same effect on someone who is less defense focused. Also not talking about switching to lab but on enthusiasm and so voter turnout.

  23. For those interested in the new vote registrations, politics home has done some good analysis

    http://www.politics.co.uk/news/2017/06/02/exclusive-newly-registered-voters-focused-on-student-seats

    In summary, most of the increase is in student seats, many already held by Labour. Not sure if they will vote on campus or at home, but it is some very good analysis that shows it is not an even thing across constituencies, so is likely to only impact a few seats.

  24. “With one week to go, the Conservatives have a mountain to climb”

    “Latest Forecast: Tories pay the price of an inept campaign”

    Thought these headlines were interesting – both stories from YouGov’s 2015 Election site.

  25. @ Valerie

    “your constant partisan hard left posts” – Rich does make me laugh!

  26. I wonder how how much traction this kind of news report is going to factor in to influencing voters before E-Day:

    “An ex-Ukip MEP who is vice-president of Marine Le Pen’s far-right European Parliament grouping has been campaigning for the Conservative Party”…in Kent

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/outrage-far-leader-linked-marine-182922649.html

  27. @Rich

    Could well push them back into the UKIP fold though. Wouldnt take much slippage back to Ukip to make the difference between May enjoying a comfortable majority or facing a hung parliament.

  28. I’m amazed anyone is citing the youth poll commissioned by Hope not Hate and the NUT.

    They were way out on the previous contributions.

    Quite apart from the fact that even they admit that 18-24s mainly only swing Lab v LD fights in university cities such as Leeds, Cardiff, Norwich and so on.

  29. @reiver,

    Fair point yes.

  30. The polls are broadly correct. Conservatives in 40s. Labour in 30s. Splitting over 80% plus for first time since the 70s.
    Conservatives win most marginals. Labour build some super majorities.
    I think the interest on the night will be the relegation battle between The LibDems and Ukip. Ukip have squandered around 1.5 million votes from 2015 by not contesting around 250 seats with strongish Leave support.
    This means they have to do really well to get more total votes than the LibDems. This will determine Ofcom guaranteed media coverage on panels such as Question Time, Any Questions, and right to comment on News stories.
    Third place will still get access but fourth place with no seats can be treated like the English Democrats.
    But if the LibDems fall below Ukip and get almost zip seats, then their media access is potentially terminated.
    Indeed I predict with 100% accuracy the Monster Raving Looney Party will be fourth in Aldridge and Brownhills. Ukip are not standing even though they polled well in 2015 and there was big Leave vote in 2016.
    The two party system will be back stronger than ever under Ofcom rules if they poll over 80% combined. The other parties will get far far less tv and radio media in the forseeable years. Newspapers can at any stage ignore them as the Sun did up to 2010. It just excluded LibDem stories and comments.
    As regards the night, I think the Conservative party get home but I hear increasingly that if short of a 50 seat majority then a leadership change cometh swiftly.
    Corbyn will clean up in Remain areas and student areas and get a much bigger vote share than Ed or Gordon because of the bonus share from collapse of Ukip, LibDem and Green. But Corbyn lose Walsall North and
    Walsall South and other such seats which have been Labour since the 1970s.
    May’s vote share will be up around 7% on Cameron because of collapse of Ukip, LibDem, etc
    It will seem higher than Maggie Thatcher but then the SDP and Liberals were getting 26% from the big two. They were not splitting 80% plus vote share.
    Corbyn may stay but May will go.
    As Maggie Thatcher said after beating Heseltine in the actual vote in 1990 (but falling two votes short of a 15% lead and automatic victory), yet having to resign,’It is a funny old world’.
    The last LibDem MP standing will be leader. It might be John Hemming in Yardley.
    If Liam Fox emerges as Tory leader, Nigel Farge may join the Conservatives and thus finish Ukip as others follow swiftly.
    The DUP may join with the Conservatives as the Unionists only split from Tories over Ted Heath joining the Common Market in 1972.
    Of course I could be wrong.

  31. AR558

    In the ComRes poll the ridiculous 43% youth turnout filter they apply is one half of the error they are making. The other half is an outlier in their VI crossbreaks aligned to age – putting the youth vote 19% behind other LAB VI’s we have seen.

    Combine that and you get a whopping great outlier compounded by a crazy turnout weighting. It artificially pushes CON ahead by 8-10 points overall.

  32. DrMibles

    The 44 per cent likelihood to vote score of the YouGov 18-24 young people at the beginning of the campaign looks rather close to the 43 per cent of this age group which actually voted, Did YouGov provide data on how many of this group said they had voted? (And, ideally, how far these corresponded to those who said they were likely to vote/),

    I

  33. TIGERTANAKA

    Interesting but the difference between GE15 and 17 is in 15 the Young didn’t vote and will in massive numbers at least 80/20 for JC. If those headlines were true in 15 then the CON’s got away with it as their core vote of the elderly voted and young didn’t. For years, I have been saying the young can’t complain about free TV licenses, winter fuel payment and Triple lock as they never bother to turn up. As the old saying goes “Decision’s are mad by those who turn up” and it looks like the young have finally got it.

  34. LANCS OBSERVER

    The poll was conducted by ICM. Who commissioned it is irrelevant.

  35. @AlexW

    That article doesn’t really accord with your summary. The Tories have not “dropped a pledge”, they simply haven’t included it in their manifesto. And the “plans” to reduce troop numbers are not “plans”, they are options, and they do not belong to the Tories, but to the military. And all of that is assuming that the Mail’s source is correct, and that the options reflect actual military thinking and not some political game-playing to try and win more money from the Treasury.

    As I understand it part of the military’s problem is that with near-full employment and lots of better jobs out there in the economy, it’s quite hard to get anyone to take the King’s Shilling in the first place. If Corbyn manages to form a minority government I expect this problem will rectify itself in time…

    As to the views of a RoC voter on defence cuts, I certainly don’t want them, although as Rich says the last person on Earth I’d trust to maintain a strong UK defence is Jeremy Corbyn. I am a believer in deficit reduction, and so I swallow cuts across the board (even to my own pay and conditions) because I perceive it to be “for the greater good”. In my universe, more money for the army means less money for something else – and the pain is being felt pretty much everywhere.

  36. @ Rich
    @Alexw,

    “Trying not to be drawn but ok I’ll bite. If people are worried about the army, I don’t think they’ll switch to Corbyn given concerns around the nuclear deterrent etc. It won’t change anything.”

    I agree it isn’t much of a vote switcher (for the same reasons Corbyn’s no first strike isn’t). The significance is surely that it means that a strategy of attacking Corbyn on defence issues to motivate the core vote, also exposes a Cons weak spot.

    The fact the Mail is running with this so close to the election is, perhaps, significant. To say the least, it is unhelpful. Is Paul Dacre falling out of love with Theresa May?

  37. Markw

    Actually the army do have battefield nuclear weapons as do the airforce and Navy. Hope your research in other areas is better.

  38. @mrdibbles

    There’s a difference between being a politics nerd and simply being a bit more interested than they otherwise would have been.

    For a start it brings to their attention issues that they simply may not even been aware of had they not been asked a question on it.

    Influencing the respondent is a very real concern of survey design. Typically only within the same survey but there’s little reason that shouldn’t apply longer term.

  39. DRMibbles

    Interesting so it was a double blunder then. Sorry the link wasn’t on the Wikipage so I hadn’t seen the crossbreaks ( have updated that link now). They have 54-22 for 18-24. The other one Is saw earlier was 69-16 i think,.

  40. @CMJ

    Many many posts ago (but about 9 hrs ago..) you asked about Plymouth Moorview.

    It should be a Labour seat in the first place. It was taken from them by an above-average swing on account of a popular young Army officer from a locally based unit, with an energetic and attractive wife and a very savvy Facebook campaign. But before that northern Plymouth formed the basis of seats that were solidly Labour going all the way back to the retirement of David Owen (and obviously before him as well). It is a patchwork of ugly concrete estates that were spewed across stunning countryside after the war when Labour appropriated land from local landowners. It has quite a few factories and lots of welfare recipients. It has virtually no LDs and is a straight Labour-Con fight. However it is not the “university” bit of Plymouth and doesn’t have many students (there are a few, in accommodation near the College of St Mark and St John, but the vast majority are nearer the city centre, which is in Oliver Colwell’s seat).

    My gut tells me that Mercer will probably hold on narrowly, but that Colwell will be toast. Mercer has first term incumbency, is not a toff, and has a very active local association. Of course two weeks ago, both seats would have been good bets for 5 figure majorities, with Exeter looking vulnerable too. Now I expect one to go Labour, with perhaps one or two Cornish seats also vulnerable.

  41. JAMESB

    I agree that badly constructed, leading polls could influence people.

    But the idea that doing a single voting intention poll changes your likelihood to vote is really in the realms of extremely remote probabilities.

  42. Also looking at Comres’ question of who do people think are going to win the older demographics seem convinced CON’s will win (65+ 74-7 55-64 61-14) This could lead to lower turnout in these demos which CON’s now need to turnout massively if they have any chance of holding on to any sort of Maj (or even the 318+ Seats to rule as Minority)

  43. “hard left”

    Can the next person who feels their fingers typing this childish and meaningless phrase please just go and ……. …. either that or can they please (please!!!!) be put into endless moderation?

  44. From Twitter

    Exclusive ICM election poll in the Sun on Sunday, with some intriguing numbers – we’ll have the results at 10pm.

    I know they like doing this with polls and being nothing, But im betting on a single figure lead and highest labour score to date

  45. NEIL A

    You Gov currently has Moor View 44-42 CON but Sutton and Devonport 50-37 LAB which supports your view.

  46. David in France:

    Why? I haven’t typed it on here from recollection but it certainly applies to Corbyn’s policies.

  47. @David In France

    Agreed, but can half a dozen pejorative terms for Tories, RoC voters and Brexiteers be put on the same list?

  48. That’s a 7% CON->LAB swing in Sutton and Devonport.

  49. S THOMAS

    Do we really still have tactical nukes? I thought they were all decommissioned. I’m not saying you are wrong, I probably am. Got a link?

  50. @Neil A

    Thank you!

    Yes, I’ve heard Mercer speak on the radio. He came across very down to earth, and not a party puppet. I believe he was talking about service personnel having issues with malaria medication.

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