On the final Saturday night of the campaign I expect we’ll see plenty of polls. We already have figures from Opinium and ComRes. I know were are definitely due a new YouGov poll for the Sunday Times, ICM for the Sun on Sunday and Survation (presumably for the Mail on Sunday), and I’d expect a new ORB poll for the Sunday Telegraph too.

So far Opinium for the Observer shows topline figures of CON 43%(-2), LAB 37%(+2), LDEM 6%(-1), UKIP 5%(nc). Fieldwork was on Tuesday and Wednesday and changes are from a week ago. Again, we see the Tory lead continuing to drop down into single figures. Full tabs are here.

ComRes for the Sunday Mirror and Independent has topline figures of CON 47%(+1), LAB 35(+1), LDEM 8%(nc), UKIP 4%(nc). Fieldwork was Wednesday to Friday and changes are from a week ago. The Conservative lead is static at twelve points (currently the equal largest any company is showing). Some of the other questions in the poll are less positive for the Conservatives – asked if they have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of politicians and parties Theresa May now has a negative score. 39% have a favourable view, 42% unfavourable, giving her a net score of minus 2 compared to plus 9 in February. Jeremy Corbyn’s net score is now minus 15 – worse, but significantly up from minus 33 in February. Full tabs are here.

I’m out tonight, so will update on the other four polls tomorrow morning – though feel free to discuss them here as they come in.

UPDATE: A brief update on the other polls, not going to post anything else tonight:

  • ICM‘s poll for the Sun on Sunday has topline figures of CON 45%(nc), LAB 34%(+1), LDEM 9%(+1), UKIP 5%(nc). Changes are from the ICM poll for the Guardian at the start of the week.
  • YouGov in the Sunday Times has topline figures of CON 42%, LAB 38%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 4%. Fieldwork was Thursday to Friday
  • ORB for the Sunday Telegraph have figures of CON 45%(+1), LAB 36%(-2), LDEM 8%(+1), UKIP 4%(-1). Fieldwork was Wed-Thurs with changes from a week ago.
  • Survation for the Mail on Sunday has topline figures of CON 40%(-6), LAB 39%(+5), LDEM 8%(nc), UKIP 5%(+2). Fieldwork was conducted wholly this morning, and changes are from Survations previous online poll in the Mail on Sunday. Tabs are here.

2,192 Responses to “Saturday night polls”

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  1. @Mike,

    There is a heck of a lot of fake news on Facebook / twitter, embellishment, poor quality news, and general partisan politically motivated stuff. I think generally it’s a very misused platform. So I’ll disagree with you if you are saying long should that standard of material continue.

  2. The LLOYDS share price perhaps worth watching
    from tomorrow-Thursday in my view.

    As a domestic focussed bank LLOY is a play on the
    UK economy. A Tory overall majority is (generally) viewed
    as favourable to Lloyds.

    Blackrock are now major shareholders and would guess
    there may be private polling undertaken. Also expect some hedge funds would do the same.

  3. I’m guessing that a high proportion of people that buy newspapers are the elderly. Inevitably as they pass on the sales of newspapers will continue to decline. In a decade or so it may well be The Canary wot won it.

  4. Kentdallian – Ive been guilty enough myself , so no need for an apology

  5. Rich

    “There is a heck of a lot of fake news on Facebook / twitter, embellishment, poor quality news, and general partisan politically motivated stuff. ”

    There’s just as much of all that in the Daily Mail & The Sun every day.

  6. CARFREW
    @Rich
    More generally, a point you’re making is one that Anthony made. That reading two different biased sources doesn’t help.

    That is what am saying. A friend of mine on fbook who is very politically and aggressively active on the left is always moaning about the Mail, but then promotes incredibly biased anti Tory stories on her news feed. You can’t have it both ways!

  7. @Formister

    I didn’t expected you to read back, I thought it possible you might have remembered one of my posts. But anyway, I wasn’t snide, I very clearly indicated how you were wasting time, and your last post is more of the same.

  8. @Mike,

    Ok, sensible question. Do you think The Canary is quality balanced journalism? Just interested.

  9. Rich. The same misinformation and distortions have been ongoing in the printed media for many years. This is a primary reason why social media has developed in the way it has. Its a much needed counter balance

  10. Just a quick point on the YouGov model, not sure how much this has changed since it was launched, I’ve not really been checking there numbers.

    Saturday it has Torys confidence interval 38-44. Today its 39-45

    Labour was 36-42 but now dropped back to 35-41.

    Yet the torys seat share has still gone down.

    Would this mean YouGov has the tory vote share going up but losing more seats? so more tactical voting?

  11. @Rich

    She’s not having it both ways though. She’s reading the Mail and those other sources and then forming a view. As opposed to,just reading the Mail…

  12. Rich

    Its as balanced as The Daily Mail, The Sun, Express, Telegraph etc.

  13. Tafia

    I don’t think the You Gov model is very good at dealing with the smaller parties. Based on current polling I can’t see Plaid Cymru losing Arfon but I think Lab will hold Ynys Mon. The Ceredigion prediction is way off for Plaid Cymru, although I don’t think they will win it they will be well clear of Lab and Con.

  14. @SSSimon

    I’ve never trusted a word that anyone tells me on the doorstep since!

    Add to that don’t trust private polls or feedback from canvassers, and your BS deflector shield is suitably in place :-)

  15. LMZDEE

    the changes could be very small to trigger a jump of 1% due to rounding. A single days data would have to have a 7% jump over the week to effect a full 1% jump chances are it’s much smaller (Which is one reason to allow reporting to an additional digit)

    Also the number of seats moving about is very small, I wouldn’t read too much into it.

    New thread BTW

  16. Carfrew- Then my apologies if I missinterpreted the meaning in your comment

  17. @LMZDEE

    What you are observing there is random statistical noise in my view.

    If you want to know how much it is raining, don’t measure what falls in one second, measure what falls in one hour..

  18. @Rich

    Also, beyond the froth, on the net there is much considered, carefully argued alternative comment that counters many of the memes of the mainstream media. you can focus on the inevitable froth, but a lot of opinion is being swayed by the considered stuff.

    On here, I can’t discuss alternative economics stuff like MMT with many (well not at all now cos it dishappinates Anthony) and the same with energy sources like Thorium. But I can with the younger. They’ve read about it from sources outside the mainstream. They blog about it themselves…

  19. @graham

    My point exactly.

    If Canterbury goes red, Corbyn has a landslide bigge than Blair.

    Lol!

  20. @Formister

    No probs.

  21. Of course a poll that seems to show plausibility for an outcome previously thought impossible or very unlikely is going to get a lot more attention than one that does not.

    Tho at a purely anecdotal level, the only people on my facebook who share polls do it in a “this one poll proves the situation is now x” whilst wilfully ignoring all the other polls around the same time that imply that is not the case. So it wouldn’t surprise me if that Survation poll were being shared so much because it’s surprising and different, yes, but also because it assists people who want to mislead their less politically active friends as to how well one party is doing.

  22. Diane Abbott car crash on sky news, she did not know details of Harris report that came out in 2016…

  23. Great a back and forth going on about printed media vs. Social – wonder who started this off?

  24. @ Woody – from talking to voters on the doorstep and on the street. It was the personal feedback that I got from some pretty conservative voters, who I never in a million years would have expected to support someone with my radical political background.

  25. @ CambridgeRachel

    “Just watched the new labour party advert and I’m in tears.”

    Why, Is it that bad?

  26. CARFREW

    Many thanks for the Pilger link. Well worth a read for anyone posting here.

    The London Bridge stuff ITV & C4 both lead on is as good. If anyone here watches the late ITV news they may be a little shocked (not in an inappropriate images sense).

    If there is any more polling it may make a difference.

  27. I have a lot of Labour support friends being from Manchester and living in a safe Labour seat in Gorton South. Since the yougov poll came out a few days back suggesting it would be a hung parliament. I have seen that poll posted all over my Facebook feed while ignoring everything else.

    Most of them with post talking about how Corbyn can win. I haven’t seen the other polls really mentioned anywhere apart from on here. I guess people using social media outlets like twitter and Facebook are more likely to be in the younger generation who Corbyn seems to appeal to and people share the poll they want to be true, while ignoring the less favourable ones. E.G. The one that suggest Corbyn has a chance when on avarage it suggests a 7-8% lead to May enough to give her a safe but not overwhelming majority.

  28. @Edge of Reason

    Yes. You will get some sharing by activists seeking to influence, but plenty from people just sharing and trying to interpret info. among those they have come to trust.

    If I post summat here, I know I might get some partisan responses, but there are plenty whose opinions I’d value to add some value. And even partisan responses can inform. You learn the perspectives if others, even if you don’t agree.

  29. On the 3m extra voters in the EU referendum – do we know if they were mostly leave (I am guessing they were, based on the regions where the increase was)

    So the next question is – are polls weighted to EU referendum result?

    If yes, but we have many leave voters who don’t vote in a general election and won’t this time (no sense voting in a safe seat, ‘x’ is going to win anyway) , does that mean we have a remain majority actually voting in this election – which means the polls are incorrectly weighted?

    As most Brexit voters are voting Tory, does than mean they are overweighted to the Tories?

    Of course, if these 3m voters turn out this time to ‘seal the deal’ on Brexit, then it works the other way.

    Really just trying to understand how these voters could impact the result vs the polls if they turnout or don’t. How much would that move the goalposts

    3m voters is around 10% of people voting, so it sounds like a significant unknown?

  30. New thread

  31. @BZ (“If there is any more polling it may make a difference.”)

    if?
    Surely there will be!
    Two years ago, 8 of the pollsters had fieldwork going up to the day before the election (although in most cases the fieldwork spanned several days)..

  32. Diane Abbott – ” the general election is in 2 days ”

    No that’s Wednesday….

  33. LASZLO

    Just a thought but the Canterbury changes could be the result of some Con remainers switching to Lab and being replaced by ex-Kippers.

    New thread btw.

  34. “Tories still ahead” isn’t news, so won’t attract much further comment. “Possible hung parliament” IS news, so will likely attract lots of comment.

    It’s like the “Dolphins still gone” thing from Hitchhiker’s Guide…

  35. Just been talking to a Labour colleague who is helping campaign in a neighbouring seat with a Tory majority of about 6000 or so. The candidate he is helping doesn’t think he is going to win, but is still working hard.

    If this Northern seat isn’t going Labour, well I doubt a 9000 maj. southern one will, surely.

    Labour colleague predicts a majority of 40 odd for Tories

  36. @BBZ

    “Many thanks for the Pilger link. Well worth a read for anyone posting here.”

    ———-

    No probs, but it was Mike N who first posted it I believe. It’s very thought-provoking…

    Thanks for the Heads up about the London Bridge programme too…

  37. Via ScotGoesPop

    Scottish voting intentions for the UK general election (Kantar/TNS) :

    SNP 43%
    Conservatives 28%
    Labour 21%
    Liberal Democrats 5%

  38. Should have added that the fieldwork for the Kantar Scottish poll was between 10th and 29th of May, so pretty out of date in such a fast moving political environment as this election is proving to be.

  39. @Confused

    “The guardian is losing money hand over fist – and is quite likely to go bankrupt in the near future – it now resorts to begging to stay afloat. Whether you like it or not it is because the public don’t want to read its content.”

    ———-

    Lol, Lots of people want to read it, it’s just that the Graun hasn’t set up a paywall so they get to read it for free in their website…

  40. First post here; can anyone tell me why the Survation weighted number for female voters is around 110% whilst male voters is 90% leading to an inflated labour vote. Statitically men are more likely to vote are they not??

  41. You can now get 2/9 on a CON OM, it was 1/8 earlier.

    Oh my.

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