Ipsos MORI’s penultimate election poll has topline figures of CON 45%(-4), LAB 40%(+6), LDEM 7%(nc). Changes are from their previous poll in mid-May, hence the drop in the Tory lead here is probably largely just reflecting the post-manifesto drop that we’ve seen in other polls. The forty point figure is the highest Labour have recorded since early 2014 (though of course, back then it gave them a substantial lead… now it still puts them five points behind).

The UKIP figure isn’t in the Evening Standard’s write up – I’ll add it when the tables appear.

UPDATE: Tables are here. Note that there is a minor methodology change, filtering out unregistered people and adjusting turnout to account for overestimation. The effect of that was to increase the Conservative vote by one point, to decease Labour by one point, so without it we would have been looking at a three point Tory lead.


2,007 Responses to “Ipsos MORI/Standard – CON 45, LAB 40, LDEM 7”

1 38 39 40 41
  1. FLOATINGVOTE

    What does my personal opinion have to do with asking for evidence that those polled view Labour’s manifesto as unaffordable? And when did I ever state my personal opinion on the matter?

    As a separate matter, it still seems to me that an average of all the BPC polls will be closer to the mark than any individual’s preferred single poll.

  2. I think if it happens, 47% will be the best Tory result since 1959.

  3. I think YouGov’s last poll in 2015 put Labour and Tories on statistical tie.

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/05/08/general-election-opinion-polls-brief-post-mortem/

  4. Rich – I thought you were staying away from commenting until Thursday night? That promise seems to have lasted half a day

  5. It should be illegal to change your ****ing method in the middle of a campaign.

  6. Given the Comres hefty age weighting, perhaps the latest figures show the firming up (if not completely solidified) Con preference of the senior groups. That wouldn’t be very surprising at this stage and v unlikely to change

  7. JOSEPH1832
    YouGov figures would put Corbyn in No.10.

    Terrible post.

  8. Philotes – who has changed their methodology?

  9. Assume best leader/policies etc doesn’t go through the same level of weighting and distribution as top line voting intentions? Seems a disconnect between headline results and questions on leaders/policies which should point to the lead falling

  10. Favourable/unfavourable rating split for those not working:

    T.May: 23/57
    J.Corbyn: 42/36

    If Corbyn wins he’ll be able to keep the student vote into 2022 GE!!

  11. @smithy,

    Need to restore balance, and I am only commenting on polls or correcting blatantly inaccurate misleading posts like the one above.

  12. DRMIBBLES”

    “ComRes are hugely inflating the CON lead by applying a 2015 turnout model in an election with a completely different dynamic.”

    Thus may be so BUT…… you can’t know for certain or whether:

    a/ Their figures might end up being correct, or

    b/ That, if they are, it is because their methodology is correct or despite of it

    It does seem to me, more and more, that we are all mostly whistling in the wind.

    By the way, you’ll be please to see that, with huge wit, you are now being referred to as DRNIBBLES, DRSCRIBBLES and DRKIBBLES. What I wouldn’t give for a sense of humour as sophisticated as that.

    [I do suspect though that scriptwriters are being hired.]

  13. @Philotes

    But then pollsters couldn’t herd, and may look silly on election day..if you are all wrong it looks better than if you are the one sitting out there with a different result.

    Notice the subtle points AW makes in each article, “if they did not change their methodology it would show Labour higher”.. it is becoming routine now, many pollsters think their polls are wrong so are adjusting their methodology.

  14. @ Adam

    One of the posters above said that Survation have

  15. If May polls 47 percent this ones over. JC won’t be anywhere near number 10 no matter how many he gets from the rag tag and bobtail lib dems and greens who haven’t fought a serious campaign at all from what I can see. This reminds me of 1992 Major v Kinnock. People flirted with Kinnock but having stared into the abyss backed off on polling day and stuck with the conservatives. The other parties were nowhere too on that occasion

  16. rich

    Election safe area for our sn**flak* generation.They cannot deal with anything that challenges them.where is the resiilent generation of my youth.

  17. @Rich – thanks but think we’re ok mate – noticed some rather nasty stuff coming from you that rarely had nothing to do with the purpose of this site. It then leads to rather tiresome back and forth which bores the vast majority I’m sure – if you can keep this ‘trolling’ to a minimum, I would be grateful

  18. @Steve

    “Some pollsters are going to have egg on their faces come the election. Must be a scary time for pollsters given how damaged their reputation already is.”

    ———

    It’s one of those fault-tolerant careers though, because not exactly mission critical. And getting predictions right might come secondary to influencing the outcome, and influence is more likely at the expense of accuracy when publishing polls so soon after making the measurements. Encourages gaming the system. Meanwhile, volatility has its uses. If there’s no settled, reliable method, it keeps more of them in work…

  19. Does anyone know anything about this Claire Wright (independent) who the YouGov model predicts will win East Devon off the Tories?

    Imagine if she became the kingmaker!

  20. @smithy,

    New poll, but cut the rubbish please.

  21. @ Smithy

    Floatingvote has explained it, It wasn’t an actual exit poll but Peter Kellner said that re-contacting people on voting day itself still had Lab/Con around 37% (this was after the real exit poll was released)

  22. @S Thomas

    Evidence suggests it’s the oldies who struggle with challenge. I posted data a while back in how the young cover a broader range of sources and are hence less polarised. Whereas the older stick to the homogeneous mush of mainstream media and avoid having their views challenged online. (Even where they do discuss online, they might prefer places where modding safeguards their view…)

  23. @ Paul Scoffed

    Don’t blame me for this, I kept right out of it.

    How are Posie and Crazy today?

  24. @SThomas Don’t worry, we’re not all like that! I’m 28 and passionately Tory and I know quite a few others my age too who are on the right. Most of us (not me!) don’t like to draw attention to it though for fear of the abuse that we get from left wingers. They really do often give cause to question the truthfulness of their loud proclamations of “tolerance”.

  25. @Stadius

    Looking at Claire Wrights webpage, she is pretty much in line with Corbyn, so yes, I imagine she would be Kingmaker rather than Queen maker if her polices there are anything to go by.

    http://www.claire-wright.org/index.php/post/claire_wright_general_election_campaign_2017_more_information_here/#manifesto

  26. I cant understand why proff curtis was so feted for his exit poll. he got it wrong its just that he got it less wrong than others.But it was still lamentable as an exit poll. he got the locals wrong as well. Still the BBc have canonised him along with iFC so that is an end to it.

  27. So far yougov still the only polster to show a <5% lead for CON.

    Will the others to come show any great movement?

    One thing I am sure about given the polling throughout the whole campaign – CON will get at least 44%.

  28. I,m not sure how anyone thinks east Devon will go to this independent.. what good would an inde do at Westminster anyway all on her own with no party infrastructure. Would give that constituency no voice whatsoever. No way she could influence anything at all. Anyway just looked at the betting dads for that seat.. tories 1-20 to hold it. Not many 20 to 1 on shots lose. Maybe yougov need a rethink on that s one too.

  29. I have been saying it for several weeks…..and it’s becoming a hot topic on here now.

    The under 40s vote for Labour will be very very high for Labour, it will make pollsters like comres who are not picking up on it look ridiculous on Thursday.

  30. “RICH
    Serious question. How many momentum people do we have on here. It’s getting shouty again. ”

    Serious answer: how would any of us know that and, given that, why are you asking the question?

    Anyway, maybe i can start the elimination process to help you out so….

    not me.

    also:

    “Need to restore balance, and I am only commenting on polls or correcting blatantly inaccurate misleading posts like the one above.”

    AW has clearly pointed out that restoring “balance” is NOT our function here. Leaving that aside, how do you “correct” someone else’s opinion???

    Leaving that aside also this is what you responded to:

    “JOSEPH1832

    YouGov figures would put Corbyn in No.10.”

    Given that this is a site based on the analysis of polling evidence, and that you clearly disagree [surely not just dislike?] with what Joseph wrote, then why don’t you counter his view by explaining the figures behind your analysis, and the calculations you must surely have made before disputing it with “terrible post” comment ?

  31. Ditto Rich and we’ll get along just fine

  32. New thread.

    AW, please put some of the more partisan posters on pre-mod.

  33. @S THOMAS

    If they are the sn**wflak* generation doesn’t that make you the paras*te generation?

    After all you are each taking out ~£240K more in state provided benefits and services than you have ever paid in for via taxes over your lifetimes (paid for by the young who are net contributors).

    Oh and if you are going to throw insults around I’ll return the favour.

  34. PHILOTES
    It should be illegal to change your ****ing method in the middle of a campaign.”

    Polling isn’t a swear word you know.

    Maybe it should be……

    ……………………………………………………………………………………………

    BANTAMS
    @ Paul Scoffed
    Don’t blame me for this, I kept right out of it.
    How are Posie and Crazy today?”

    What a bonkers post, buntins.

    Actually off for their evening walk in the woods with them toot sweet the noo.

  35. @ Philotes

    “One of the posters above said that Survation have”

    They may well have, but is it not prudent to check first before letting it upset you?

    Remember, we have also had posters on here who have said,

    Theresa May pulled out of woman’s hour interview at the last minute.

    Theresa May has banned the BBC from interviews, following a leaked e-mail

    Theresa May forced Amber Rudd to do the debates after her dad died.

    There are others, but you get my point.

  36. Carfrew

    The wisdom of the tribe resides in its mature members. You are a fine example:-)
    The concern about youth arises from a perceived attitude that they do not wish to be challenged. The refusal to study certain books and the request for warnings about material which contradicts their views. This combined with an aggressive attitude to challenging opinions.

    The older generation may have made their minds up but are more open to hearing other views before dismissing them (Tancred excepted of course)

    By the way has anyone come across him on any other sites? apart from great little Austrians.com

  37. On the subject of independents, what are the prospects (based on past experience) of major-party MPs who are kicked out of their parties, yet decide to stand for re-election as MPs? Specifically thinking about Simon Danczuk in Rochdale.

  38. alexw

    I did not put you in the s**wfl*ke generation. I had you in the dementia tax generation:-)

  39. Rich

    serious answer

    Probably none

  40. Can someone more intelligent than me please help me understand the following?

    The opinium poll has either a Tory lead less than 2015 or slightly more?

    The opinion polls have the Tories massively up in Scotland and Labour significantly down?

    Does that indicate a swing in England to Labour? If not why not? So why does the poll say the Tories will have a significant majority? The Tories will pick up about a dozen seats in Scotland. Current polling must mean the Tories are due to lose seats in Engalnd. Or am I missing something?

  41. S Thomas

    My experience with youth (15 and 16 year old kids) is that they are far more widely read and capable of forming an opinion based on investigation, research and debate than I was at their age

    My 16 year old son forward this to me the other day – very funny but it does contain a lot of swearing , in case anyone is still offended by that

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=shIOZdEzkiU

  42. @ Ed G

    So voter turnout in Canada in 2011 was 61.1% and increased to 68.5% in November 2015

    Here are the Elections Canada comparison stats on voter turnout by age for 2011 and 2015:

    http://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=res&dir=rec/eval/pes2015/vtsa&document=table1&lang=e

    So what one sees is that while more voters over age 45 show up, they are more than counterbalanced by the large increase in under 35 voters, who in terms of number show up as a block at 57.4% .

    That is what some pollsters in Canada called the social media effect.

    If you have some two million more voters registered than at the BREXIT vote, then how close are you to having the same 17.7% increase in first time voters in 2015.

  43. bardini1

    My complaint against the younger generation is that they are too conformist to a limited number of views.
    In my days at school roughly comparable with TM my brother and his friends carried round the little red book at school. We were the punk rocker generation . Conformity was railed against but there was a toleration of social and political non conformity. i am not sure that it is still present.
    That is why whilst i disagree with Corbyn i still respect him as a man who genuinely holds the views that he does. I do not respect poli ticians who do not believe what they say.

  44. Just anecdote, but when I came upstairs to my computer just now my nearly-18 son had a bunch of friends round, mostly new voters, to play cards. They were discussing the leadership debates and the QT as the main topic of interest.

    I have two older kids. This hasn’t ever happened before in my household.

    So I’m suspecting, if YouGov are wrong, it won’t be because they weighted the youth vote wrong, but because there is something deeper about their samples.

  45. STHOMAS
    ” I do not respect poli ticians who do not believe what they say”

    All the remainers on the Tory front bench then?

  46. @MICHAEL

    I believe in 2015 the Tories had a net loss of 1 seat in England to Labour and they might lose more again this year. They only won a majority due to Lib Dem losses. Of course people only look at the headlines not the facts.

    Polls aren’t pointing to a majority necessarily by the way for the reasons I gave earlier!

  47. A 12% difference sounds nearer the mark to me.

    That’s landslide territory, not exactly what I want but as long as the Tories win, i’ll be happy.

  48. Sorry to return to the turnout of young people but I think it is now the crucial factor in this election.

    I am 59 ….and have never seen the under 40s as motivated to vote before as they are for Corbyn. I believe the under 40s level of voting will be unprecedented in modern times.

    Given that most polling organisations are not weighting this demographic accurately it makes the current polls unrepresentative.

    I can offer many reasons why I have come to this conclusion from working with young people across the country to members of my own family suddenly becoming Corbyn supporters, and observing the social media movement.

    I acknowledge many will question my conclusions and question if the under 40s will bother to vote. I can only say wait until 10pm on Thursday, when many will be shocked at the level of support.

  49. I’m not getting this younger voter turn out in my area (Cotswolds). It’s coming across no different from any other election around here.
    Cheltenham, different constituency, but the main shopping area, definitely has less posters than 2015 (of course there is still time).

  50. I wonder if the 18-24 vote could increase, but the under 40’s could decrease.

    Purely anecdotel, but I’ve never seen so little enthusiasm about an election amongst my peers (late 20s to mid 30s). They typically vote labour, but have too many doubts about Corbyn that can’t be turned around by a few weeks of good campaigning, but are still in a “never Tory” mindset. Quite a few people have said they simply won’t vote to me, and they’re the sort of people who typically always would.

1 38 39 40 41