Ipsos MORI’s penultimate election poll has topline figures of CON 45%(-4), LAB 40%(+6), LDEM 7%(nc). Changes are from their previous poll in mid-May, hence the drop in the Tory lead here is probably largely just reflecting the post-manifesto drop that we’ve seen in other polls. The forty point figure is the highest Labour have recorded since early 2014 (though of course, back then it gave them a substantial lead… now it still puts them five points behind).

The UKIP figure isn’t in the Evening Standard’s write up – I’ll add it when the tables appear.

UPDATE: Tables are here. Note that there is a minor methodology change, filtering out unregistered people and adjusting turnout to account for overestimation. The effect of that was to increase the Conservative vote by one point, to decease Labour by one point, so without it we would have been looking at a three point Tory lead.


2,007 Responses to “Ipsos MORI/Standard – CON 45, LAB 40, LDEM 7”

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  1. FLOATINGVOTE

    “Trouble is probably also means they don’t believe they are affordable”

    Please provide polling evidence to show this.

  2. A mixed bag from ComRes.

    Good lead for Cons on VI, good result for Lab on policies.

  3. I know gut instinct is a bit flat earth especially on a polling site where so many posters put a lot of time and effort researching there posts but it is still valid.
    having lived through the torment of the nightlyYG polling the 2015GE in which it was neck and neck every night with abuse flowing both ways (happy nights!) i remember on election day the ticket collector on a virgin train telling me that he he was voting tory to stop the SNP and i knew then that the poll were wrong. Likewise i was in a Aldi on the day of the Brexit referendum and i heard the woman on the checkout berating her colleague for not having voted. i knew then something was up.
    In contrast i drove through a small town i know well today and it took 5 mins. There was not a single peice of election material anywhere to be seem and i was looking out for some. The above is not to detract from the polls but i do not seem to be witnessing any enthusiasm for anyone and certainly no evidence of a surge.`it is as if the polls are having their own election.We are told of surges and excitement but it isa bit like new yrs eve. The best party always seems to be somewhere else.Perhaps the surge is happening in London or in Bristol but it certainly is not happening around here.most people are simply bemused by it.
    Hey-Ho

  4. 47% despite everything. Wow.

  5. Unless this is a thumping Tory victory, which is looking
    a less likely scenario atm, this campaign has changed UK
    politics going forward.

    May’s credibility has been badly damaged and the .. no
    deal is better than a bad deal mantra will also quietly
    be left behind.

  6. “Where have the 1 percent increases come from if none of the minor parties have dropped ?”

    There’s rounding, isn’t there? A 1 per cent increase could come from two minor parties each falling just under 0.5%.

    Or, the so-called 1 per cent increase could be an increase of 0.5% or even of less than 0.1% (for example, if a party had been on 40.49% previously, that would round to 40%, whereas 40.50%, which is 0.01% more, would round to 41%!).

  7. How many more polls are we expecting after Com res?

  8. They aren’t known as Comedy Results for nothing

  9. Sams

    If labour are ahead in preferred policies but double digits behind in voting intent what does tha tell you ? Nice policies..pity the magic money tree doesn’t exist !,

  10. YouGov model had been updated again, now showing:

    Con: 42% (308 seats)
    Lab: 38% (261 seats)
    Lib: 9% (10 seats)
    Ukip: 3% (0 seats)
    Green: 2% (1 seat)
    SNP: 4% (47 seats)
    PC: 1% (2 seats)
    Other: 1% (2 seats)
    NI parties: – (18 seats)

  11. S Thomas, the polls in Scotland weren’t wrong though in 2015! And the Tories had their worst ever result at just 15%. So your Virgin train conductor was unusual back then.

  12. Proffhoward

    what was her name?:-)

  13. Alexw is perfectly possible that we’ll negotiate next to no tariffs on cars and associated components whilst being outside the single market.

    Back to the people polls – I think the pollsters are still picking up younger voters who are too interested in politics. The Mori poll showing 63% of 18-24 year olds say they’re definitely going to vote – not a chance.

    The other thing I suspect although have little evidence of is that people are actively seeking to game the polls through setting up false accounts – there are certainly political hacks (computers not journalists) seeking my to use IT to influence the election.

  14. Two polls which they help me and other Tory voters breathe a sigh of relief

    re the leaders net approval results. Personally I dont look at the net score given that you can’t vote negatively – I focus on the % which approve given that you can vote for that party. I’m therefore focussed on the May 39% vs JC 32% however cant remember what the previous score was. ANyone know?

  15. joseph1832

    The “no deal is better than a bad deal” is perfectly logical unless your ideal result is for the EU to dictate terms. But I guess it has a negative ring to it.

    ____________________________________________________

    For it to be perfectly logical then a ‘Bad Deal’ would have to be worse than simply walking away with nothing. Since we already know quite a bit about what walking away would mean, and very little of it is positive, then a ‘Bad Deal’ would have to be amazingly bad.

    The elephant in the room of anyone who talks about a ‘Bad Deal’ is that they fear having to accept freedom of movement in order to get access to tariff-free trade with the EU. Maybe you can say that rejecting freedom of movement and walking away is better than accepting it and escaping the ecomonic pain WTO tariffs will bring but I’ll be damned if you can call it perfectly logical. Ideological? Yes. Logical? No.

  16. FLOATINGVOTE

    It tells you that ComRes are hugely inflating the CON lead by applying a 2015 turnout model in an election with a completely different dynamic.

    Their changes kind of made sense in light of 2015, because pollsters assumed certain voting behaviour based on the 2010 election which turned out to be wrong.

    But this election is nothing like 2015. Or 2010. Turnout patterns, brexit, increased voter registration. Using a 2015 voting behaviour model is frankly bonkers.

  17. S THOMAS

    I can relate to your post. I live in the Warwick and Leamington constituency (relatively high student population) which was a very marginal seat in the last election. I have only seen one election leaflet and absolutely zero posters. And this is despite the fact that Corbyn visited the area a month ago.

  18. .2 down 5 to go

  19. @MIKE

    All I can say is that this is what I have read is coming out from the car manufacturers themselves. They are warning big time over brexit and saying they really need single market tariff free access.

    http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/01/brexit-driving-car-manufacturers-to-consider-route-out-of-britain.html

  20. Adam I can imagine there are a fair few Cons voters who have a negative view of May right now – my folks are certainly 2 (they’ll still vote Tory)

  21. If the polls stay the same You Gov will cement there place as the best pollster in the UK or they will be a laughing stock.

    Remember their exit poll after the 2015 election had Labour very close to the Tories and look at how that turned out.

    But can you blame them? all they are doing is asking what way people will vote, if people lie or turn around and do something different they cannot be held to account for that.

  22. Got to hand it to yougov they must. Have thousands on the ground around the country in all thes seats detecting the subtle vote changes. 50 here, 100 there and moving the seats from one party to another throughout the day. The candidate themselves will be in a spin if they look at this during the day. You look in the morning your seat looks like a hold. Three hrs later the other party is favourite to take it. Hats off to them if it’s right,obviously

  23. S Thomas

    “what was her name?:-)”

    Haha.

  24. steve

    i was in England and the cut through message in england was milliband in the pocket of salmond

  25. FLOATINGVOTE

    I mean an actual question if voters think Labour can afford their policies. The difference in topline VI has far too many factors involved to point at that as proof people think Labour’s manifesto is unaffordable.

  26. FLOATING VOTER
    “If labour are ahead in preferred policies but double digits behind in voting intent what does tha tell you ”

    “Innovation adoption” theory rests on the concept that knowledge, attitude and practice are successive stages of adoption in which there are later and early adopters. A week may be a long time in politics but not enough for policy statements to get through to the electorate, to change attitudes and to lead to adoption in polling.

  27. ALEXW

    Of course they’re not going to be jumping up and down with joy, tarriffs are bad for everyone, but all I can say is I trade around the world under WTO terms and the effects of tarriffs, on most goods, are outweighed by the effects of movements in currency. Now services, that’s a different matter…

  28. bluebob

    “To be fair” [to borrow your innacuracy] I’m certain Rich is quite capable of telling the difference between a genuine joke, based on word-play, and an insult.

    ………………………………………………………………………………………………..

    CON: 47% (+1)
    LAB: 35% (+1)
    LDEM: 8% (-)
    UKIP: 4% (-)
    GRN: 1% (-)
    Comres
    ……….

    Wasn’t sure that enough of these figures had been posted.

    …………………………………………………………………………………………….

    “THOMAS
    If there was a party called the Apathy Party that got automatically the votes of those who did not go to the polls would that vote level translate into any seats?”

    That seems a fair system to me and, clearly, they should be entitled to form the next government in those circumstances.

    I can foresee a problem though………………………….

  29. Bluebob – the exit poll didn’t put labour anywhere near the Tories

  30. @ Drkibbles

    “They aren’t known as Comedy Results for nothing”

    LOL

  31. Well if you like it so much why not vote for it.. maybe cos you don’t quite believe it !

  32. @MACTAVISH + OTHERS

    If Corbyn is running an insurgent youth led campaign then its going to be conducted via social media, apps, etc. That won’t show up in the traditional ways you are looking for. I’d think that a personally connected way of driving the campaign such as that, would be far more successful then putting posters up. Its like canvassing and knocking on doors but far faster, cheaper, and can be done sitting on your couch.

  33. Floatingvote

    If labour are ahead in preferred policies but double digits behind in voting intent what does tha tell you ? Nice policies..pity the magic money tree doesn’t exist !,

    ______________________________________________

    Except it does and we used it to create hundreds of billions of £s for both the banks and to limit the economic damage of the EU Referendum result. We jave our own currency and central bank and we can ‘magic’ up as much money as we like. There are risks and potential consequences when we do but it exists and both Labour and Tory Governments have used it in the last decade.

    …so what it really says is that some people can be convinced, by carefully chosen party slogans, into disbelief of something that the party in question used themselves just last year.

  34. Favourable / Unfavourable ratings:

    T. May: 39 / 42
    J. Corbyn: 32 / 47
    T. Farron: 14 / 38
    C. Lucas: 15 / 23
    P. Nuttall: 8 / 45

    (@ComRes)

  35. ComRes tabs available here:
    http://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Independent-Sunday-Mirror_VI-and-political-poll_2nd-June-2017_654412.pdf

    As most will know ComRes will almost certainly show the highest CON lead due to methodology differences. So I suspect we’ve seen the “high” set at 12pts for the polls we’ll get tonight.

    Not sure if anyone else expected a tie in one of the polls. I said YouGov poll would be the most likely to out of all of them but had more faith in saying the range between high and low would be 10pts!

  36. The official exit poll last time was done by Mori and GfK. What is the “yougov exit poll” some people are referring to?

  37. @drscribbles,

    You can’t pick and choose the polls to suit! What I will say is YouGov are gone as a credible pollster if they are hugely out compared to the others.

  38. @ Smithy

    I seem to remember You Gov’s exit poll put them close to the Tories, cannot remember the exact figure but I thought it was close, if you have checked and I am wrong, no problem

  39. Which pollster is next in the firing line?

  40. Last time yougov repelled the same group they spoke to for their eve of poll poll on polling day to see how f they had changed their minds an none of the had. However it turned our both their polls were wrong anyway

  41. So im guessing ORB will be next out tonight.

    ORB will be down to 3 points lead
    YouGov 2 point lead
    ICM 8

  42. Rich, with the polls showing radically different patterns, and with those differences being due to different methodology rather than sampling variation, it’s legitimate for any of us to say “I believe ComRes’s methodology is better/more likely to be accurate, so will pay more attention to their polls” or “I believe YouGov’s is better, so…” etc. They can’t both be right.

    YouGov isn’t completely isolated – I think Survation has been in the same ballpark lately.

  43. ‘Likeable’ Cameron manages 36 and 37% with a dire Labour (and Lib Dems second time round)
    Blair at his most popular Cool Brittania/down with the Tories/she was the people’s princess does 43%
    Major man of the people does 42%
    Thatcher last Tory landslides does 42% twice

    Theresa May.. I’ll say that again.. THERESA MAY does 47% ?

    HA! Are ComRes looking to stay in business? Utter drivel. Please stop posting it!

  44. @Bluebob – think you may be confusing an exit poll and last polls of the campaign… yes last few polls were indicating a close run thing in yougov but the exit poll was clear Tory win

  45. IIRC, this time in the 2015 election (weekend before polling day) leaks occurred on postal voting intentions which spooked the whole ‘close run thing’ belief.

    What chance it happening this time around despite assurances it wont?

  46. Joshc:

    Let us suppose the EU say: it is either you stay in or no deal, plus you have the Euro and 50% of the Syrians who arrive in Greece?

    You only have to push the demands high enough, and you can find a deal worse than no deal.

    If you mean: the EU is sensible and they will not demand something worse than “no deal”, I understand the point, but I disagree with the premise.

    Anyone who demands £85bn as a non-refundable deposit for entering talks on an interim deal wants to know if they can just dictate terms. On your view they could double that and you’d still pay.

  47. Is there a danger that as pollsters retreat to online and phone polling and computer modelling and formulae they lose track of reality. Should a good polling organisation send people out into the real world to road test their models and if necessary alter them in light of human experience.
    For instance: my gut feeling of this election is that nothing much has changed. The tories were never 20% ahead in reality. Their margin at the locals was about 11%. it is said that in similar situations the party in power has always improved at the GE. However, Labour clearly made a good impression with its manifesto and Corbyn battle hardened from 2 years of campaigning to preserve his own job has done well. IMHO these cancel each other out
    prediction 45/34

  48. RP

    Survation are changing there methods I heard, so might not be as close

  49. Serious question. How many momentum people do we have on here. It’s getting shouty again. Comres in for some abuse no doubt on social media…

  50. YouGov figures would put Corbyn in No.10.

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