Ipsos MORI’s penultimate election poll has topline figures of CON 45%(-4), LAB 40%(+6), LDEM 7%(nc). Changes are from their previous poll in mid-May, hence the drop in the Tory lead here is probably largely just reflecting the post-manifesto drop that we’ve seen in other polls. The forty point figure is the highest Labour have recorded since early 2014 (though of course, back then it gave them a substantial lead… now it still puts them five points behind).

The UKIP figure isn’t in the Evening Standard’s write up – I’ll add it when the tables appear.

UPDATE: Tables are here. Note that there is a minor methodology change, filtering out unregistered people and adjusting turnout to account for overestimation. The effect of that was to increase the Conservative vote by one point, to decease Labour by one point, so without it we would have been looking at a three point Tory lead.


2,007 Responses to “Ipsos MORI/Standard – CON 45, LAB 40, LDEM 7”

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  1. ” I think even the Exit poll could be quite wrong, though more likely to be better than the current ones”

    Last time the exit poll said Con would be 10 seats short of an overall majority. This was clearly wrong (and significantly worse than the previous two GEs’ exit polls had been), although many elements of the broad picture were spot on – Lab being wll being; Lab+SNP+LD+Grn combined being behind Con; LD falling dramatically; SNP having a massive breakthrough).

    Have any changes been made to exit poll methodology since then?

    At any rate, at least the exit poll is likely to get the turnout right (since they only poll the people who have voted)! So insofar as that’s the main unknown variable (turnout among the young, etc) it’s easier for the exit poll to get it right.

    Now, if there’s been differential swing (instead of UNS) then that’s where the exit poll might become less reliable if it can’t fully capture all the variables in different seats.

  2. @Danny

    “I dont see any evidence of any results inconsistent with the public’s stated views about Brexit. Labour have piled up remain supporters and Conservatives have piled up leave ones.”

    I’m not so sure about that. If you look at the Britain Elects front page graph, you see a big shift from UKIP to Con exactly when the election was announced (there’s a better graph for this somewhere, but can’t find it now). But since then, the graph suggestions that votes have been bleeding from LibDem, Green and UKIP towards Labour. And finally maybe even some Con to Lab switchers.

    OK, it’s probably reading too much detail into the graph, but I think the pollsters numbers also back-up the UKIP to Lab move.

  3. “The exit poll is based on a fairly small sample (100–200) of voters at each of a fairly small number (100-odd, out of 40,000 in all) of polling stations.” – http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/sci/statistics/staff/academic-research/firth/exit-poll-explainer/

  4. @Canada

    “So I understand now why Ms May was in the North as even the May 30th to 31st YouGov poll gives the Conservatives 1.4% swing to them there. Not sure how many seats it nets them though?”

    It’s a test of the “Bluekip” vote in places like Hartlepool, but it’s also a test of whether some of the “Redkip” vote goes back to L in places like Stockton S.

    Middlesbrough S & E Cleveland just moved in the YouGov nowcast from Lean C to a tossup with a slight L advantage. That’s where May gave her Brexit speech; the local paper had a C advertising wrap yesterday. It’s clearly being treated as worth the investment of the PM’s time and party money.

  5. Re: turnout estimates in exit polls

    As an example, in the US election, most exit polls showed strong turnout amongst young and hispanic voters especially in key places within Florida which they thought would seal the election for Clinton. It won’t be a good indicator in this election in my opinion.

  6. ADAM
    “Relieved that Con continue to sit in the 43% – 46% range based on the first of today’s polls.
    Incredible that a party can run such an appallingly bad campaign in so many different ways and retain a relatively stable % share in polls”

    Could it be that it shows how strong their underlying support is? What do you think would have happened to VI if Labour had had their own equivalently dire manifesto?

    Irrespective of ones own views the single thing I think everyone can agree on is that the Con’s have run a campaign awful beyond memory. If they win it is despite May and her campaign, not because of it.

    The only thing certain I can see is that whenever the next GE is after 2017, May will not be leading the Cons.

  7. RP

    Turnout in England is usually known within an hour or so of the polls closing- as the ballots are brought to counting location and totalled first before being tallied per candidate.

    In other parts of UK can take longer due to constituency size and physical impediments to quick collation.

  8. ALEXW

    “hard brexit would mean a 10% tariff on car exports and due to the price sensitivity of car buyers that would destroy the export orientated car industry in the UK”

    I’m not sure I understand why that would happen as currency fluctuations have devalued sterling by more than the tarriff since last June. Surely, if your theory about price sensitivity is correct, we should be selling about 15% more now, and 5% more after a hard brexit?

  9. Serious question. Could a process similar to this be influencing the polls?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/02/bbc-debate-audiences-may-have-hijacked-labour-supporters-posing/

  10. Right, but I didn’t mean the overall level of turnout, so much as the fact that the uncertainty about the level of youth turnout, which drives the ICM v YouGov divide, won’t really be a problem when it comes to the exit poll, because they’re only polling people who’ve voted.

  11. Generally speaking if exit polls are a long way out it’s evidence of vote rigging, that’s why exit polls are used a lot by international observers in countries that have limited experience of free and fair elections. Having said that, in the democratic primaries the exit polls were often as much as 10 points out although in the Republican primaries no more than 3. Bernie was pretty much the same phenomenon as Corbyn so anything is possible, also the democratic primaries were a nightmare for pollsters, polls were wrong so often and always underestimated Bernie’s support

  12. trigguy,
    ” But since then, the graph suggestions that votes have been bleeding from LibDem, Green and UKIP towards Labour. And finally maybe even some Con to Lab switchers. ”

    why the ‘but’? My point is that remain voters have gone labour because it is one of only two parties likely to be able to influence Brexit, and it is the most remain. My further argument is that anyone who night have supported UKIP and leave who in fact favours a soft Brexit, would logically also go labour. All this stuff about ‘Brexit means Brexit’ post dates the referendum when leave were at great pains to leave the definition of what leave means as wide as they possibly could. A ‘norway option’ was quite plainly seen as a leave vote.

  13. “Generally speaking if exit polls are a long way out it’s evidence of vote rigging,”

    Are you saying 1992 was rigged?

  14. Two things :

    Turnout is known very shortly after the polls choose – it’s simply a question of adding up now many ballots were issued.

    The exit poll last time actually showed A Tory majority, but there was sufficient margin of error that they hedged their bets and called it as largest party.

  15. @ZACH

    “Does it matter if the right wing media attack Corbyn? Is the overall ability of print journalism to change people’s minds over?”

    ———

    Not yet, because the oldies still much prefer it. But the younger know its limitations and look more broadly, so over time as the boomers become a smaller proportion, it’ll likely change.

    This election is probably where we’re really seeing the impact. The old party memes and liberal press lines are losing their potency. The U.S. already has seen it of course…

  16. Great to see there will be a Full Scottish for me to wake up to in the morning.

  17. Comres lead still 12%

  18. Con lead at 12 still with comres

  19. *close

  20. Tories lead by 12 points on Comres!

  21. Britain Elects? @britainelects 36s
    More
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 47% (+1)
    LAB: 35% (+1)
    LDEM: 8% (-)
    UKIP: 4% (-)
    GRN: 1% (-)

    (via @ComRes)

  22. COMRES Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 47% (+1)
    LAB: 35% (+1)
    LDEM: 8% (-)
    UKIP: 4% (-)
    GRN: 1% (-)

  23. CON: 47% (+1)
    LAB: 35% (+1)
    LDEM: 8% (-)
    UKIP: 4% (-)
    GRN: 1% (-) (

    via @ComRes)

  24. Comres
    CON: 47% (+1) LAB: 35% (+1) LDEM: 8% (-) UKIP: 4% (-) GRN: 1% (-)

  25. Comres
    CON: 47% (+1)
    LAB: 35% (+1)
    LDEM: 8% (-)
    UKIP: 4% (-)
    GRN: 1% (-)

    The lefts won’t be happy…..

  26. Britain Elects? @britainelects 48s48 seconds ago
    More
    Replying to @britainelects @ComRes
    Fieldwork: 31 May – 02 June.

  27. Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 47% (+1)
    LAB: 35% (+1)
    LDEM: 8% (-)
    UKIP: 4% (-)
    GRN: 1% (-)

    (via @ComRes)

  28. @MIKE

    The components are generally imported. We are just a finishing plant to put them together. The value of the pound doesn’t really save much as those parts rise in cost equal to whatever the devaluation saves. There’s also what we do about our own tariffs. If its a hard brexit I can’t see us unilaterally disarming and making the importation of those parts tariff free.

    The car manufacturers have already been warning about all this. But given May keeps talking about a hard brexit either she is lying about it or she is ignoring their concerns.

  29. @Philotes

    I note there’s absolutely no claims the QT audience were biased or rigged, because the undecided there were obsessed with hypothetical nuclear war and kicking out Ken Livingstone!

  30. The particular problem is when party memes become toxic, which may possibly be happening with the spending meme. The more they use it, the more they take a hit for it, especially if own policies aren’t sufficiently costed…

  31. CON: 47% (+1)
    LAB: 35% (+1)
    LDEM: 8% (-)
    UKIP: 4% (-)
    GRN: 1% (-)

    Comres

    ……….

    Not sure who went down…. like that bit in Diary of a Nobody.

  32. Well ComRes is a result that the Conservatives can genuinely say they are delighted about. Of course, it’s just one poll, but if ComRes are right that most other pollsters are understating Con and we’re still looking at a likely Con landslide. If they are right.

  33. Philotes

    Anything is possible, but that Telegraph article is void of any kinds of reference, so it’s an argument from the vacuum really.

    It is highly unlikely that YouGov’s 800:000 panel could be hijacked.

  34. Philotes, I doubt it, it would seem unlikely that all different kinds of pollsters with different kinds of samples (both phone and online) would all show varying degrees of the same overall trend from some kind of “hijack” scenario.

  35. Of course I’m not saying that the 92 election was rigged, but if it was in an underdeveloped country it would have been closely looked at

  36. Some pollsters are going to have egg on their faces come the election. Must be a scary time for pollsters given how damaged their reputation already is. The massive difference between polls from different companies it quite astonishing.

  37. This one seems to include the tv debate she skipped so no obvious sign of any impact from doing that. Where have the 1 percent increases come from if none of the minor parties have dropped ? SNP ? I don’t get that

  38. There’s a poll that suggests that 63% of youngsters will turn out to vote.. and 68% of them are likely to vote Labour… Does any-one know how this will affect the over-all landscape?

  39. Cons at 47%! Not sure this passes the smell test for me – would be astounded if Cons exceed 42 on Thursday

  40. Britain Elects? @britainelects · 2m2 minutes ago

    ? More

    On who have the best policies for ‘people like me and my family’:

    Theresa May and the Tories: 38%
    Jeremy Corbyn and Labour: 44%

    (@ComRes)

  41. Comres combined LAB/CON vote now at 82%.

  42. This poll certainly isn’t all good news for the TM. Couple more snippits from Britain Elects:

    Favourable / Unfavourable ratings:

    T. May: 39 / 42
    J. Corbyn: 32 / 47
    T. Farron: 14 / 38
    C. Lucas: 15 / 23
    P. Nuttall: 8 / 45

    On who have the best policies for ‘people like me and my family’:

    Theresa May and the Tories: 38%
    Jeremy Corbyn and Labour: 44%
    __________________________

    TM having a net disapproval for the first time with ConRes, and Labour ahead on the best policies for ‘people like me and my family.’ Would love to see the full tables myself.

  43. Britain Elects? @britainelects · 2m2 minutes ago

    ? More

    Favourable / Unfavourable ratings:

    T. May: 39 / 42
    J. Corbyn: 32 / 47
    T. Farron: 14 / 38
    C. Lucas: 15 / 23
    P. Nuttall: 8 / 45

    (@ComRes)

  44. ALEXW

    The components may well be imported, but that’s only part of the cost. I can’t imagine the export price of a car is simply the sum of the cost of the components.

    I export to America and, whatever my feelings about Brexit, I can’t deny that I’m able to charge my customers less and still make a bigger profit since last June. And that’s under WTO.

  45. AARON

    It will make all polling companies under-state the LAB lead, but particularly ComRes and ICM who assume a 43% turnout.

    I believe ComRes weight down according to leader perception too, so they are producing some results which are extremely detached from the underlying demographically weighted data.

    Labour would have to be polling something like 48% and CON 38% in the demographically weighted data to produce a dead heat in ComRes. I personally think it is bonkers.

  46. Labour 2 points up over a week with Opinium; no increase in 8 days with ComRes…

  47. Sams

    All that means is they like in theory the sound of labour policies. Trouble is probably also means they don’t believe they are affordable or deliverable hence the voting split.

  48. How much was the Con shrinkage in the prior ComRes poll? That would give us some idea if we are seeing outlier effects in play, but this one certainly does look good for Con.

  49. …cue scrabble to ‘explain away’ with meaningless jargon.

  50. @Robin (“The exit poll last time actually showed A Tory majority, but there was sufficient margin of error that they hedged their bets and called it as largest party.”)

    I think you’re mistaken. “The exit poll strongly indicated the Conservatives as largest party, and the ultimate outcome of a small Conservative majority was clearly not ruled out. ” ( http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/sci/statistics/staff/academic-research/firth/exit-poll-explainer/ )

    Con were shown as 316 seats in the exit poll. To have an overall majority they’d need 326 seats (technically) or 322 once Sinn Fein absenteeism is taken into account.

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