Ipsos MORI’s penultimate election poll has topline figures of CON 45%(-4), LAB 40%(+6), LDEM 7%(nc). Changes are from their previous poll in mid-May, hence the drop in the Tory lead here is probably largely just reflecting the post-manifesto drop that we’ve seen in other polls. The forty point figure is the highest Labour have recorded since early 2014 (though of course, back then it gave them a substantial lead… now it still puts them five points behind).

The UKIP figure isn’t in the Evening Standard’s write up – I’ll add it when the tables appear.

UPDATE: Tables are here. Note that there is a minor methodology change, filtering out unregistered people and adjusting turnout to account for overestimation. The effect of that was to increase the Conservative vote by one point, to decease Labour by one point, so without it we would have been looking at a three point Tory lead.


2,007 Responses to “Ipsos MORI/Standard – CON 45, LAB 40, LDEM 7”

1 2 3 41
  1. Wow – 40%! First time since… when?

  2. I can’t remember if Ipsos are using 2015 demographics at all? Does anyone know off the top of their head?

    Never thought I’d see a poll put Labour at 40 this election at the start of May.

  3. Ho ho ho :-)

  4. Doesn’t change anything. 5% lead for Tories is probably a majority of 20-30.

  5. Expecting polls to be neck and neck by Tue /Wed at this rate.

    I feel the Tories will have done very well if they actually get 45%.

    Similarily, if Labour gets 40%…..

  6. Where’s TOH? Is he on holiday?

  7. Remind me what are IPOS/MORI doing with younger voters in their filters?

    Serious question as I have lost track of who is doing what. If they are down weighting the turnout of this group then this is big news if the are showing a high turn out less so.

  8. Hopefully people will stop blaming pollsters for inaccurate youth representation. There seems to be a consensus of opinion that females and the elderly are abandoning Con in huge numbers.

  9. Surely the point is that the poll shows a drop from a 15% lead to a 5% lead since mid-May. Now its the end of May ….it really is the end of May.

  10. Good afternoon to all at UK Polling.

    First 40% figure of the campaign for Labour – well done to all the foot soldiers.

    Now, can we have a poll showing evens stevens by Wednesday.

    Yes we can !

  11. I think this puts an end to the idea that manifestos don’t matter. The message from the Conservative one was in essence: “you will get less”, while Labour led with: “you will get more”.

    Of course economically things even out and everything received has to be paid for in the end. But after the last 7 years people aren’t – it seems – in the mood to vote for more immediate pain. The Conservatives made a huge error in thinking they could produce a manifesto that emphasised what was being taken away rather than what they intended to positively do.

    I agree that Labour will be ahead before too long in a poll or two. I can’t see any outcome other than a hung parliament.

  12. Conservative vote looks pretty solid to me. Reasonably confident of a small workable majority for the Conservatives.

  13. 40%…

    Breaking News…. Corbyn suffers from Altitude Sickness.

    before the campaign he was struggling to get 40% in his own house let alone his own Party!!!!!

    Oh has any one noticed you never see Teressa May and Grayson Perry in the same place together…..

    Peter.

  14. Do we know the dates between which this poll was taken?

  15. The pollsters have completely lost the plot, method changes half way through a campaign, just look very suspicious. I think they may have extinguished all credibility. It looks from the outside they are trying to form opinion.

  16. Can somebody explain to me all the Labour crowing when they are a full 5% behind and don’t even have the numbers for a multi party coalition with a majority of under 5. It’s rather amusing.

  17. This poll is only in line with other pollsters. Just before this poll broke I posted on the last thread that Ipsos would be showing Lab >40% because they always give the highest Lab scores. Nothing has changed, Lab aren’t catching up more than they had anyway according to other pollsters in recent days / weeks.

    @PHILOTES
    “Based on that poll YouGov should be showing a labour lead in their next one.”

    No, YouGov and Ipsos show very similar leads most of the time, so this is consistent with YouGov having shown Lab leads of 3 and 4% already. The day the last Ipsos one came out (15% Tory lead), 17th May, YouGov the same day was 13% Tory lead.

  18. Valerie,

    “Where’s TOH? Is he on holiday?”

    He’s patrolling the White Cliffs of Dover in his Pith Helmet carrying a pitch fork….Gerry don’t Like It Up Them!

    Peter.

  19. @RICH

    I think it’s the marginals, those few hundred votes either way, that matter.

    Fascinating. Really neck and neck now. If May loses her majority, she’s gone by this time next week.

  20. @Rich: bit of a partisan tone there. I think the reaction is in response to the perceived wisdom that a landslide victory for Conservatives was a foregone conclusion.

    I personally still think the Conservatives will win a majority of sorts, but a landslide is looking increasingly less likely now.

  21. did i see the kantar poll as well? tories up and labour down although slight change to methodology.Tories 43% and labour on 33%. Difference 10%

    exactly the same issue: tory vote steady; massive assessment differences about labour vote.Only june 8th is going to decide this.

    prediction 45/34

  22. The importance isn’t so much the exact figure, but the confirmation that yet another pollster has the election closing to a low Tory lead.

    It does look like the credible assessment is that the Tory lead has collapsed to a very small one. The main issue now is the extent to which Labour have momentum and the ceiling of their support.

    I make a comment when Corbyn was elected that at some point “in the next two years” that Labour would be ahead in the polls, and that this would lead to exuberance from their supporters here. Admittedly I went on to say I expected the lead to vanish again as voters swung back towards the government.

    I may prove to be right on 1) and 2). There isn’t all that much time for 3) to happen, but I have a gut feeling to some extent it may.

  23. @Jones,

    If May wins, yet still gets under 30 majority I think they’ll be moves to put her out to grass mid term by the Cons. A small workable majority is most likely still in my view but I do concede a larger majority looks pretty unlikely now.

  24. @DaveM

    I wondered the same thing, here’s the answer from a couple posts back:

    “Ipsos MORI haven’t added political interest weights directly, but have added education weights and newspaper readership weights, which correlate with political interest…. MORI and YouGov still base their turnout models on people’s answers rather than their demographics, but they have all made changes. YouGov and MORI now weight down people who didn’t vote in the past”

  25. *I made a comment

  26. @Bill,

    I agree! Not saying there will be a landslide at all, the polls are clear there.

  27. @Rich/Jones

    I disagree. The next parliament is going to be torrid, whoever is leader. I expect that if May is PM she will remain PM until at least 2020. Noone else is likely to want the job. However, I don’t expect her to lead the Tories into the next election.

    If I were someone like Priti Patel or Stephen Crabb, I’d keep my tongue still and my nose clean and wait for the position to open up in 2020-21.

  28. I reckon 45 tory and 41 labour means conservatives will be short of a majority.

    Not far off that now.

  29. We really are living in interesting times. The Conservative campaign does seem in real trouble and it is hard to see how it comes back from here. In 2015 there seemed to be a late swing towards the Conservatives but I do not feel that this time.
    Serious question, the whole turn out question is key to the result. The turn out models feel very backward looking. Has any work ever been done to see if turn out is influenced by ‘passion’ for the campaign? In 2015 I felt people were really fired up, particularly older people, by the whole vote Labour get the SNP line and that got the Toriy vote out. This time I sense the Tory vote is softer. I wonder if the accepted wisdom that pensioners alway vote will hold true? They seem to have been put off by triple lock and winter fuel payments. Is there any research into the extent to which turn out may be influenced by how different groups feel about the campaign?

  30. @RICH

    How does a 5% lead translate into a 20-30 majority when a 7% lead in the last 2 elections didn’t?

    Also your partisan tone is boring and perhaps a little insulting/pointless here where most posters have an ounce of intelligence?

  31. It’s interesting contrasting 2015 with 2017. One massive difference is just how singular both campaigns are in terms of personnel, and I think it’s making a difference.

    In 2015, Cameron had Osborne, who gave an air of realism, even hardnose-ness to let Cameron seem more personable. Milliband had Balls, who had the opposite effect. It seemed big beasts of cabinets were everywhere.

    But in 2017, it’s all about Corbyn (well now it’s not about Abbott) and May (despite her pushing Rudd forward the other night).

    In a battle of weakish leaders (supposedly) it’s surprisingly presidential- a mistake I think on TM’s part that is looking costly not only in seats won (or lost) but in credibility.

  32. The IPSOS Mori poll finally breaks the Margin of Error consistency between all of the various polls.

    ICM and TNS both had Lab at 33 (i.e max of 36 with 3% MoE)
    IPSOS Mori have Lab at 40 (with min 37 in MoE)

    Taking these we either have:-

    Opinium 45 35 (23-24th)
    ComRes 46 34 (24-26th)
    ORB 44 38 (24-25th)
    Survation 43 37 (26-27th)
    ICM 45 33 (26-29th)
    TNS 43 33 (25-30th)
    YouGov 42 39 (30-31st)
    Panelbase 42 38 (26-1st)
    YouGov MRP 42 38 (7 day rolling to 31st 40-45 and 35-41 95% Confidence)

    Con 43-45, Lab 36
    Con lead 7-9%

    or

    Opinium 45 35 (23-24th)
    ComRes 46 34 (24-26th)
    ORB 44 38 (24-25th)
    Survation 43 37 (26-27th)
    YouGov 42 39 (30-31st)
    Panelbase 42 38 (26-1st)
    YouGov MRP 42 38 (7 day rolling to 31st 40-45 and 35-41 95% Confidence)
    IPSOS Mori 45 40

    Cons 43-45, Lab 37
    Con lead 6-8%

    However, ComRes would now be the only one limiting Lab upper to 37 and Con lower to 42. So it will be very interesting to see their latest.

    You pays your money….

  33. My prediction of 150 Conservative majority forgone conclusion seems to coming apart at the seems . Maybe we are starting to get Canadian politics with massive changes and the election of Justin Trudeau.

  34. Does anyone have any idea what caused the jump in Tory lead between 7th-8th May? Was it a change in methodology? At the time we wrote it off as random error but looking at the curve it doesn’t look like that now. Compared to the other pollsters their results change at that point from being in the centre of the distribution to being at the very high end.

  35. Where have UKIP/ Greens gone? Could their absence be affecting the Con/Lab scores?

    Amazing turnaround for Labour from a few weeks ago though.

  36. FPT

    Rich – “Can somebody discuss with me what they think turnout will be? Is 70% fanciful??”

    I think turnout will be 70%+

    If you look historically, when it was 2 party politics, people turned out in vast numbers because they literally didn’t know who would win, so every vote counted.

  37. Thanks Jonm.

  38. CON voting intetntion was around 45% before the GE was called.
    It rose to around 47% and is now back to perhaps 44%.
    That is pretty constant.

    LAB, by contrast, were around 25% at the time the GE was called and polls have seem them steadily rise to as high as 40%.
    Very encouraging for LAB voters.

    But to put it in perspective: LAB are still comfortably behind CON. And with just 6 days to go… the best LAB can hope for is probably a hung parliament or small CON majority. Either of which would be a disaster for May. OTOH… she would take a majority of 40/50 and be very happy with that. And that is still the most likely outcome.

  39. In a funny sort of way I think the Conservatives might even heave a sigh of relief at this poll – after a ghastly campaign they are still 5% ahead and stubbornly in the mid forties. They will be thinking their vote is rock solid (not sure that it is), and they only need another point of two (shy tories perhaps possible) and a marginal flaking of the Labour vote (not convinced about that). I think I would give them a 6%-7% lead come June 8th, but nothing more.

    Problem is still whether the polls giving the lower leads are right. I still think they may all converge around a similar number in the end in a display of unity.

  40. @S Thomas

    The kantar was from 31 May. I posted it thinking it was more recent than that.

  41. I was going to go to bed early on election night as I thought it was all-over before the event.If it gets close might be worth staying up .

  42. @JONM

    Your MOE analysis is misleading. You should only include the most recent poll from each company, otherwise you are giving more weight to polsters who poll more regularly.

  43. It may be that the Uk electorate have decided to follow the lead of our American Cousins !

    Hell; if they can elect an Idiot…We can elect an idiot!

    Peter.

  44. Rich – “Can somebody explain to me all the Labour crowing when they are a full 5%”

    If you add the SNP vote to the Lab vote, then it’s neck and neck.

    I think we need to entertain the possibility that a) the polls are correct and b) Lab+SNP could do a deal.

  45. a 2% shift from Lab to Con directly changes a 5% to a 9% lead. In the quiet of the voting booth will people think: Do I want a hung parliament and a potential political stalemate or do I want some stable government. genuine question.

  46. I expect attacks about Labour being propped up by the SNP to start in earnest. JC looked very angry yesterday when Emily Thornberry gave details of their plans. He was trying desperately to stonewall in order to shut down the question but she didn’t seem able to help herself.

  47. Daniel, it isnt misleading, the way the calculation done is clear, if you dislike do your own, we all love stats here .

  48. @Lewbrew,

    Are you for real picking out partisan right wing posts amidst a sea of let wing crowing? lol.

    These polls show nowhere near a Corbyn Govt. That is a factual statement.

  49. Sorry my last post refers to the ICM figures.

  50. … wow.

    Don’t think any of us expected this a week ago.

    Campaigning in Battersea on Tuesday I thought I was just enjoying a sunny day.

    Campaigning (with Owen Jones, no less!) in Battersea on Thursday, it was with a spring in my step knowing that – if unlikely – it was possible the seat might swing.

    P.S. Peter Cairns (et. al), please stop with this overtly partisan nonsense. Many thanks.

1 2 3 41