Ipsos MORI’s penultimate election poll has topline figures of CON 45%(-4), LAB 40%(+6), LDEM 7%(nc). Changes are from their previous poll in mid-May, hence the drop in the Tory lead here is probably largely just reflecting the post-manifesto drop that we’ve seen in other polls. The forty point figure is the highest Labour have recorded since early 2014 (though of course, back then it gave them a substantial lead… now it still puts them five points behind).

The UKIP figure isn’t in the Evening Standard’s write up – I’ll add it when the tables appear.

UPDATE: Tables are here. Note that there is a minor methodology change, filtering out unregistered people and adjusting turnout to account for overestimation. The effect of that was to increase the Conservative vote by one point, to decease Labour by one point, so without it we would have been looking at a three point Tory lead.

2,007 Responses to “Ipsos MORI/Standard – CON 45, LAB 40, LDEM 7”

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  1. Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 40% (-6)
    LAB: 39% (+5)
    LDEM: 8% (-)
    UKIP: 5% (+2)

    (via @Survation / 03 Jun)

  2. I am confident that all the polls are showing similar raw data but it comes down to how those numbers are weighted, in particular the likelyhood of turnout.

    I assume those polls that show a very close result have models that predict a higher percentage turn out by the younger voters.

    I would expect a young and attractive candidate likeTrudeau in Canada would be able to inspire more young voters to participate compared to someone like Jeremy Corbyn or even the two candidates in 2015.

    I also might expect that some of the younger voters who didn’t participate in the Brexit vote may have learned their lesson.

    I am in Australia (where voting is compulsory) so anything beyond this would be guess work but I would think that just because yougov produce more polls than others doesn’t mean their adopted treatment of the youth vote is more accurate than other polsters. Going across the top 6 or 7 polsters you get results something like 44% to 36% which would put the Tories at the same point as when the election was called and Labour having consolidated as the opposition of choice.

  3. That survation poll is the same as theirs yesterday

  4. @tonybtg:

    The Republican rush of blood to the head in nominating Trump was gradual.

    The sudden overturning of views on Corbyn has happened in two or three weeks. I think that they s time to reveal one’s inner incompetent (as TM has done), but hardly to safely conclude that he, Abbott, Seamus Milne, et al are all total bricks, like they used to say in children’s books.

    Yet lots of people have done just that.

    Obviously his supporters think they have seen the real Corbyn. I imagine lots of people are projecting onto him what they imagine someone with his election campaign image will be like – and this (partly due to TM turning incompetent) has eclipsed all other information.

  5. Steve Hilton’s intervention is surprising – unless we assume it was made to benefit ‘chums’ positioning for the leadership.

  6. Anyone who is worried about the British spirit withering should watch this as posted above by the sheep.

    It is brilliant, and it was g and t indeed.


  7. Diane Abbott supposed to be on Sky News at 7.15 pm, not turned up yet ???

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