We have two new GB polls today, plus YouGov polls for London & Wales.

Firstly, the weekly YouGov poll for the Times has topline figures of CON 42%(-1), LAB 39%(+3), LDEM 7%(-2), UKIP 4%(nc). Fieldwork was Tuesday and Wednesday and changes are from the YouGov/Sunday Times poll at the weekend. The trend continues to be towards Labour and, given YouGov tend to show the most favourable figures for Labour, that’s now heading into hung Parliament territory. Tabs are here. YouGov also have a new election model on their site here, providing a seat estimate – currently that is also showing a hung parliament, with the Conservatives on 317 seats.

Secondly we have this week’s Panelbase poll. Topline figures there are CON 44%(-4), LAB 36%(+3), LDEM 7%(nc), UKIP 5%(+1). Fieldwork was conducted between Friday and today, and changes are from their poll conducted at the start of last week. A sharp narrowing of the Tory lead here, and Panelbase now weight their voting intention figures to the age profile of 2015 voters, not the whole adult population, so they are using a method that we’d expect to show a big Tory lead. When they changed their method last week it increased the Tory lead by seven points, so without the change they’d presumably have been showing a very close race indeed.

YouGov’s London poll for Phil Cowley at Queen Mary University London has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 50%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 3%. In 2015 Labour had a nine point lead in London, so this would reflect a swing of four points from Conservative to Labour, and would likely produce several Labour gains. That’s better for Labour than even the most favourable GB polls, but isn’t necessarily unfeasible. Given the different demographics in the capital the swing in London is increasingly divorced from the rest of Britain – there was also a sizable shift towards towards Labour in London in 2015, despite there being relatively little movement in England as a whole. It is also younger than the rest of England, and more anti-Brexit than the rest of England. Tabs are here. (For what it’s worth, there are actually two YouGov/QMUL London polls today – there was a YouGov London poll coming out of field at the time of the Manchester bombing, which given the timing was held back to release both together today. Not that there has been any real movement between them… the Conservatives are down one compared to last week. That does, at least mean we can be confident that the big shift towards Labour in London happened around the time of the manifestos, rather than in the last week).

Just out, there is also new YouGov poll of Wales, which has topline figures of CON 35%(+1), LAB 46%(+2), LDEM 5%(-1), Plaid 8%(-1), UKIP 5%(nc). I’ll update with Roger Scully’s commentary and the tables when they appear.

Finally, I have a longer piece over on the YouGov website about the differences between the polls, implied turnout figures, what is likely to happen at the election.


710 Responses to “Latest Panelbase poll and YouGov polls for Britain, London and Wales”

1 12 13 14 15
  1. Here’s the thing. That MORI poll suggests labour have added >10% to their VI numbers in a month. That would be unprecedented in UK politics.

    Jeremy was highly unfancied, seen to be weak on defence and the economy and all the talk was of the labour party splitting after the election.

    Either JC has run the best political campaign ever witnessed in the UK and has managed to completely turn the tide and convince the public that left leaning policies are the way to go.

    Or, something is up with the polls.

    Going to be very interesting next week!

  2. First 40 and movement still towards Labour. I still expect to see a neck and neck or a Labour ahead poll (probably from YouGov) in the next five days.

  3. Ipsos Mori had a 23% lead at the start of the campaign and 15% a couple of weeks ago. 5% now might be a bit of an outlier but it still shows Lab on the way up.

  4. 45% vote from ipsos mori is still very strong for the conservatives. Can’t see Labour getting 40% although they will probably get at least 335%.

  5. From a 15 point lead to a 5 point lead is pretty significant. Even with MOE that’s a lot of DKNs or Con -Lab shifts

  6. @Daniel

    I am sure Labour would be happy with even a quarter of that

    :-)

  7. @ Daniel

    I’d take 335% :-)

  8. @ DANIEL – Shy Tory versus unrepresentative samples and motivation to vote (aka “complacent” CON)

    Do polls accurately reflect busy working people’s views (by far the largest “demographic bucket”)?
    With landslide looking very unlikely and talk of hung parliament has the motivation to vote risen for busy working people?

    Close elections raise turnout from all sides (e.g. IndyRef, Brexit). Complacent elections see a large drop in turnout (eg 2001 GE).

    By raising the uncertainty due to narrow lead in the polls the press are getting the message out to “complacent” CONs and probably just about the perfect timing a well?!?

  9. 85% for the two main parties. Is that unprecedented?

  10. From Evening Standard – it is a telephone poll, and it isn’t the youth vote that is driving the movement.

    “Women and middle-aged voters are punishing Theresa May following controversies over the “dementia tax” and school meals, an exclusive poll reveals today.

    The Ipsos MORI research for the Evening Standard reveals significant shifts to Labour among women and the 35-54 age group — the “pinched generation” juggling caring for ageing parents and their own children.

    Today’s survey, the first full Ipsos MORI telephone poll since just before the manifesto launch, shows the Tories still suffering from their wobble as Labour narrow the gap to just five points — a quarter of the lead Mrs May enjoyed before campaigning began.”

  11. Daniel, no, not unprecedented.

    “https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election_records#National_two-party_swings”

  12. Paul Croft

    It’s possible as it is a larger research project.

    Some of these groups have thousands of members.

  13. Based on that poll YouGov should be showing a labour lead in their next one.

  14. Those demographics are really interesting. The youth can stay in bed now and let the middle-agers decide the election.

    There is logic to it – the sandwich generation all voting Labour. That’s me – aged parents and kids coming up to University age. I can see why my age group would turn towards Labour.

  15. @Mike

    No, 85%+ for the 2 main parties was the norm until 1974 when the Lib vote rose dramatically.

  16. ipsos mori is showing the same as other polls – there has been a significent improvment in labours vote since the start of the campaign and that the tory lead has narrowed.

    Until now this has been at the expense of the smaller parties – but this latest poll shows labour taking direct from the tories.

    Where the difference is in polling is the size of the gap. Is it 3% or is it 12%?

    Fascinating. First poll with labour in the 40s since …. 2013?

  17. @Daniel

    “Either JC has run the best political campaign ever witnessed in the UK ”

    Or TM has run the worst. My money’s on the latter.

    The expenses charges probably won’t cause too much of a shift (except perhaps locally), but may well lock in a few waverers. But it could easily affect the tenor of the rest of the campaign. The smell of corruption, whether justified or not, is not a good thing to have hanging around.

  18. So it it shy tories or complacent tories or is it both? And can anyone else by shy or complacent?

  19. I know the ‘tax avoidance’ ruling swirling around ingenious looks ugly but it’s easy to sneer, as someone who works in film and has worked on films partially funded by Ingenious (and other London based funds), I have to say that this ruling is disasterous for the U.K. film industry which will now see production plummet (again). The majority of films don’t make money. The only way to justify an investment from wealthy individuals is to pitch it to them as a tax right off and that’s how it us modeled. It’s almost a government grant to make art and that’s how the investors see it. They almost never make any money. If they gave the money to charity it would be deductible, so I don’t think they deserve to be vilified.

  20. How likely is 45/40 to give the Torries an OM?

  21. Omg, the famous squeezed middle

  22. *Torys

  23. In previous years I always though the consensus that polls carried out over bank holidays/school holidays were to be treated with caution? We’ve just had a bank holiday and half term with A level’s starting this week….I only presume the same caution is being applied here as it doesn’t suit the story.

  24. Well if you want a crash in the pound high inflation falling house prices crippling national debt – companies and the rich moving aboard the EU riding all over us you will get it.

  25. Re: social media & shy Conservatives

    I am one, I guess, in that the only material shared I ever see on Facebook is pro-Labour/Anti-Tory, with many invectives about how awful the Conservatives are from many of my acquaintances. I have never see any pro-conservative material.

    I’ve voted Conservative since 2005 (other parties before this), but I would never say anything that looked remotely pro-Conservative in identifiable social media. I say I’m non-political, if asked – which occasionally happens. There are other people like me on there, but are they all Conservative voters as well? I’ve no idea and I don’t intend to ask.

  26. If polling was wildly inaccurate during long weekends I don’t think the polling would be done.

    It has been speculated upon and I don’t recall a strong effect.

  27. re: 85% two party vote – thanks, I didn’t start voting til after that, but I should have googled.

  28. @ExileinYorks

    The school cuts are a very big deal around our way and parents are boilingly angry about them. School meals added fuel to the fire.

    I suspect if a few more of Theresa May’s overconfident SPADs had school-age children, this election would never have been called.

  29. Daniel,

    I’ve seen talk of “shy Labour” among people in City / finance jobs where there’s no less peer expectation of how political interests align. Question remains how that translates into polling and into swing on a constituency level. And City types are either likely to be in London constituencies or the commuter SE where there aren’t that many marginals.

    We’re well past the point where change in a single pollster’s numbers can be rationalised as being at the bounds of sample variability. I still think there’s going to be a hard “PM Corbyn?” ceiling that works for the Tories, but who knows?

  30. Don’t know if true or not, but Owen Jones has tweeted an anonymous email from a BBC journalist that TM is now refusing to do any interviews at all with the BBC, either national or local. He’s asked for confirmation/denail from teh Tories but heard nothing.

    This is getting ridiculous.

  31. @ROBIN

    The problem with blaming TM’s poor campaign on the closing gap is that the CON vote has been remarkably stable all through the campaign at ~45%

    Another element could be that the Lib Dem and Green votes are now going to Lab. JC’s campaign plus tactical voting leading to 2 party politics could account for the huge increase in Lab support.

  32. Robin, TM is one of these shy tories.

  33. Daniel, it may not be stable from now on, but sure it was remarkably so up untill recently.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017

  34. To chip in on the social media echo chamber discussion:

    Back during the EU referendum (and prior) on facebook I exclusively saw pro-remain things being posted – and any pro-leave link or musing I shared was either ignored or argued against. However, I have never added as a friend those who saw fit to use politics as a vehicle for abuse and shouting matches. I had a colleague who would always mutter “BNP-lite” as I walked past them – there’s no way I’d add someone like that to my friends list. Equally, though, whenever I saw people getting angry and abusive but were pro-leave, I would remove/not add them too.

    This time around I’ve seen almost all only pro-labour stuff, except for 1 anti-labour article. But the numbers have been drastically reduced compared to last year, amongst my social media circle the election is essentially a non-event.

    As a young person, my friends list is predominantly full of young people, so the pro-remain, pro-labour positions are to be expected.

    I think the main thing that is important for me is to not remove anyone I disagree with but only those who are nasty people. It’s a mistake I think people make all too often to cut ties with those they think are wrong rather than listening and discussing with them the different issues that lead us to believe what we do.

  35. One last thing, I have never felt afraid to share pro-leave things on facebook, despite being a lone voice in a sea of remain support. I can’t say the same for real life, however.

  36. “RICH
    @Daniel,
    Even in a Tory safe seat, a Tory poster in the window or flag in the garden would be asking for a brick. Agree the left is more aggressive than ever, but that’s where we are.”

    I assume that you base the above on numerous reports of bricks through windows? [Although, oddly, I’ve seen none.]

  37. MarkW

    Robin, TM is one of these shy Tories
    _____

    Ha! I’m going to use that line

  38. @Daniel

    Agree with you Daniel. Given the Tories undoubtedly poor campaign, it is remarkable that they are still polling mid-40s.

  39. “Either JC has run the best political campaign ever witnessed in the UK ”

    “Or TM has run the worst. My money’s on the latter.”

    I’d go for both based on the evidence.

  40. orrible left wingers being violent to torys eh?

    Just like to point out that the most serious political violence in the UK has been carried out by the far right against left wingers – like the assassination of Joe Cox.

  41. Opportunity for may if she feels brave – Corbyn has ‘invited’ her to do QT tonight at the same time so they could debate together

  42. New thread on the new MORI

  43. Rich – “Can somebody discuss with me what they think turnout will be? Is 70% fanciful??”

    I think turnout will be 70%+

    When elections are this close, people turnout. Especially as Brexit is in the mix.

  44. @ Shevii

    Yes you are broadly right, a bookmaker will have a position, he needs to cover that position so when a liability has built up on a certain result he will lengthen the odds on other outcomes to reflect that, he is basically wanting people to bet on all of the possible outcomes, even if the favourite wins he is still ok as the other bets help to cover the loss, of course they have analysts making the market up with information from polls etc.

    Again you are right that in a small market small amounts of money will have a more pronounced effect on the odds.

    Why were Ladbrokes offering bigger odds? it could be some of the above or it could be that he was simply slow in reacting to the market.
    At the end of the day you found value and that is 70% of the battle, if you can place a bet on an outcome that has a 50/50 chance of happening but you get odds of 2/1 in the long term you will make money.

    Spread betting is a different beast, I would suggest to stay clear of that.

    Betting exchanges can offer greater odds, but as you have found, not always.

  45. Since TM’s coronation as Cons leader last summer until she called the election, Cons VI was fairly stable in the low 40s.

    On calling the election there was an instant boost to Cons VI from a collapse in UKIP VI. The last few polls show that Cons are now pretty much back where they started before the election, and have shed all their net gains. No net movement, but a fair amount of churn.

    Without the churn, I might buy-in to the S Thomas shield wall, but the latest Evening Standard poll is just the latest indication of potential cracks in core Cons support. We shall see.

    Lab on the other hand had hit a long term low just prior to the election being called. Over the campaign they recovered to Corbyn’s pervious best of low 30s, and just kept on going. Part of this is certainly reconnecting with disillusioned core Lab who didn’t like Tory-lite, part is motivating the young who may not turn out, part is gathering in the LoC vote who don’t want to give TM a big majority, part is red UKIP returning, a small part is capture of Cons remainers. Will this big tent hold till 8th June – we shall see.

  46. @Sorrell

    Sounds to me more likely? you are not a Shy Tory but embarrassed by the way you currently vote and not prepared to defend that on Social Media?

  47. Not entirely sure the Shy Tory thing will materialise this time.

    Previous elections when this happened the Tories were polling in the mid-high 30s, this time they are around 10 points greater than that.

    It’s possible it’s still true and Tories are too shy to say they will vote Tory but don’t think it’s a given this time around

  48. @ SHELTS

    Thank you for making my point about online discussion for me.

  49. @Sorrel

    So you are embarrassed by how you vote then?

  50. Martin Lloyd
    Paul Croft
    Rich

    Martin wrote
    “If I was a tory living in say lambeth and someone knocked my door to canvass my opinion I think I’d say labour too for fear of finding a brick through my window or worse.” and Paul and Rich both commented that this was likely (Even in a strongly Tory seat for Rich).

    As a Labour supporter I am sorry that you feel this way and so it’s prompted me to stop lurking.

    I’ve no doubt the anxiety is real and genuinely expressed but I wonder how well founded it is I’ve done a quick search of Google news sources in the past month and found nothing that sounded like what you describe. Can you point to anything similar, my search may have been too narrow/literal.

    Sadly I think these concerns have been fed by the internal struggle in the Labour party where (I think) one side was keen to delegitimise the the other. So i am not complaining that your posts are partisan.

1 12 13 14 15