We have two new GB polls today, plus YouGov polls for London & Wales.

Firstly, the weekly YouGov poll for the Times has topline figures of CON 42%(-1), LAB 39%(+3), LDEM 7%(-2), UKIP 4%(nc). Fieldwork was Tuesday and Wednesday and changes are from the YouGov/Sunday Times poll at the weekend. The trend continues to be towards Labour and, given YouGov tend to show the most favourable figures for Labour, that’s now heading into hung Parliament territory. Tabs are here. YouGov also have a new election model on their site here, providing a seat estimate – currently that is also showing a hung parliament, with the Conservatives on 317 seats.

Secondly we have this week’s Panelbase poll. Topline figures there are CON 44%(-4), LAB 36%(+3), LDEM 7%(nc), UKIP 5%(+1). Fieldwork was conducted between Friday and today, and changes are from their poll conducted at the start of last week. A sharp narrowing of the Tory lead here, and Panelbase now weight their voting intention figures to the age profile of 2015 voters, not the whole adult population, so they are using a method that we’d expect to show a big Tory lead. When they changed their method last week it increased the Tory lead by seven points, so without the change they’d presumably have been showing a very close race indeed.

YouGov’s London poll for Phil Cowley at Queen Mary University London has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 50%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 3%. In 2015 Labour had a nine point lead in London, so this would reflect a swing of four points from Conservative to Labour, and would likely produce several Labour gains. That’s better for Labour than even the most favourable GB polls, but isn’t necessarily unfeasible. Given the different demographics in the capital the swing in London is increasingly divorced from the rest of Britain – there was also a sizable shift towards towards Labour in London in 2015, despite there being relatively little movement in England as a whole. It is also younger than the rest of England, and more anti-Brexit than the rest of England. Tabs are here. (For what it’s worth, there are actually two YouGov/QMUL London polls today – there was a YouGov London poll coming out of field at the time of the Manchester bombing, which given the timing was held back to release both together today. Not that there has been any real movement between them… the Conservatives are down one compared to last week. That does, at least mean we can be confident that the big shift towards Labour in London happened around the time of the manifestos, rather than in the last week).

Just out, there is also new YouGov poll of Wales, which has topline figures of CON 35%(+1), LAB 46%(+2), LDEM 5%(-1), Plaid 8%(-1), UKIP 5%(nc). I’ll update with Roger Scully’s commentary and the tables when they appear.

Finally, I have a longer piece over on the YouGov website about the differences between the polls, implied turnout figures, what is likely to happen at the election.


710 Responses to “Latest Panelbase poll and YouGov polls for Britain, London and Wales”

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  1. @ Guymonde

    LOL.

    If we get the narrow Cons majority that currently looks like the most likely outcome. The struggle for control within Lab will probably resume. The left will go with we came close, it just needs one more push. The right will go with that’s the best the left will ever deliver we need to change. If Lab somehow mange to maintain party discipline either strategy could pay off next time around as the challenges of dealing with Brexit will drag the Conservatives down.

  2. @Nestacres
    Yes, you called?

  3. Ah, I see Daniel, the odds are not moving fast and are some contradict as shown,

    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/hung-parliament

    If they the odds indicators all go red / blue then something is really shifting.

  4. @markw

    Betfair flows are starting to see a no tory majority drift out and money is starting to shorten the 50-75 bucket.

    It’s not a significant move yet – but the drift is there.

  5. EXILEINYORKS
    @ S Thomas
    Only a few more days to hunker down behind the shield wall.
    Will it hold, will your side make a late break-out and rout the opposition, or will it crack and your side take a beating?
    To paraphrase Thunderbirds – “Anything could happen in the next 6 days”.
    Which side will need International Rescue on 9th June?

  6. @Daniel

    Could it mean that more money is being put onto a hung parliament so the bookies are covering their position by adjusting the odds?

  7. @Aaron
    I think anyone who is afraid to tell a pollster the truth because of peer pressure is probably also likely to bow to that pressure in the polling booth as well. I could perhaps understand the phenomenon occuring with phone pollsters, where you may have family or friends in the same room while you are answering. I don’t see why you would lie on an internet survey though.

  8. @ Blue Bob (also Rich)

    Last night you asked which betting company I used for my little flutters (wasn’t quite sure why unless you fancied those unquoted odds) which prompted me to go look at other sites on constituency betting and I was amazed at the difference on odds in many seats.

    So for example (the one I have commented on in the Chorley thread) Lab were shared odds on to win with the Tories (something like 4-9 each) on one betting site but on Ladbrokes were 13-8 (slightly reduced now I think).

    It was either you or Rich or maybe both who were talking about sizeable bets you had made so maybe you can explain why the odds would be vastly different? Surely that type of spread doesn’t happen on the gee gees?

    Is it just the case that there isn’t that much constituency betting going on and if one punter puts a big sum on one party with one betting company then that betting company needs to get that back on the other party by offering more favourable odds? I thought those chappies at Political Betting would be all over any variation in odds in the blink of an eye.

  9. If anybody wants an idea of how hard it’s going to be raising £50bn from ‘the rich’ take a look at this article, and surprisingly some of the names using these tax avoidance schemes.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40120027

  10. Maybe Anthony could moderate Facebook as well!

    I think the divergence in the polls this time is healthier than the herding we had in 2015. Hopefully one of them with be right this time!

  11. @ BARNY – the “reasoning” is more likely that the model maker wants to avoid the need to make a subjective justification for taking a non-uniform regional/national decision. Although slightly subjective you could put parameters around the seat specific shift and use VI versus 2015 vote as a guide. For sure in seats currently held by LDEM where UKIP have pulled a candidate, simply ignoring the UKIP issue and moving CON/LAB/LDEM votes by regional/national swings is going to miss the specific seat detail. UKIP held 12.8% nationally so seats where they had 16%+ and have pulled a candidate are going to be different to seats where they held a much lower % and can be more safely ignored via regional/national swing assumptions.

    I see it as making an important difference on around 10seats, which given the wide difference in polls and models isn’t a big deal at a national level but if we end up close to a hung parliament it should give CON a few more seats comfort (even if you ignore the motivational aspects that may come into play as UKIP voters faced with a pulled candidate come out of landslide complacency and see they do need to get out and make their vote count). It is possible to argue that the LAB and Green supporters will vote tactically to keep LDEM in but that is certainly a larger drift into subjectivity.

    FWIW Martin Baxter at Electoral Calculus is taking the UKIP pulled candidate issue into account but his “maths” is behind the scenes so I can’t work out exactly what he is doing but at a seat specific level it comes out closer to my model.

  12. EXILEINYORKS
    Which side will need International Rescue on 9th June?

    Whichever it is I doubt that David Miliband will be providing it!

    PS: Sorry to have pasted your whole post – my laptop just died and editing on a tablet is more challenging than I expected!

  13. @RICH

    So you are saying that it will be hard in the immediate term, but easier once they take them all to court? or you think it will be hard regardless and they will always look at alternative methods of tax avoidance? I personal think the latter.

  14. MARTIN LLOYD

    “If I was a tory living in say lambeth and someone knocked my door to canvass my opinion I think I’d say labour too for fear of finding a brick through my window or worse.”

    Yes. I expect that happens a lot.

  15. @Daniel,

    The latter. It’s not even a Cons or Lab thing. If these celebrities paid the correct top rate instead of all these endless schemes designed to pay less tax,
    am sure it would equate to tens of billions…

  16. Laszlo

    Would be droll if all your facebook contacts had, like you, made up a false identity and were studying peoples’s reactions themselves, just as you are.

  17. Roger Scully’s comment piece on his blog about the latest Welsh political barometer poll is now available:

    http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2017/06/01/one-week-to-go-the-latest-welsh-poll/

    as with the previous poll it suggests a Labour gain of two seats from the Conservatives, but it’s also possible that the movement from Lib Dem and Plaid to Labour shown in the tables:

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/k8bsh35yh0/WelshBarometer_May31st_W.pdf

    may be tactically directed and we may see other gains (assuming the polls are correct of course).

  18. I had considered the shy tory effect recently. Corbyn has energised the young left and his Momentum group are known to be aggressive to right wing views (or just views not the same as them).

    Could this mean we will see the biggest shy tory effect ever? I wouldn’t dare put pro tory media on facebook. A friend of mine does and is constantly hounded by his own freinds. I find it remarkable that an apparent liberal group find it acceptable to call someone a f***ing Tory.

    On a personal note, I work in academia and letting anyone know I vote tory would be tantamount to career suicide.

  19. Mori poll later today according to Ben Page

  20. BritainElects has one huge flaw: it apparently takes no account of the Brexit vote in individual seats. No amount of VI polls on a national or regional basis compensates for this. What they are doing is just another version of UNS with more data behind it, more regional variations etc.

    Ipsos – they fairly consistently show Labour’s highest numbers (though not always the smallest Con-Lab gap), so if they have a poll out today we can expect the first Lab VI of the campaign that is >40%.

  21. The CPS decision to charge Craig McKinley over 2015 election expenses, probably won’t get a big focus from the media as other issues will take soon take priority. It won’t in itself move many votes.

    However, within an election campaign the broadcast media at least cannot/will not bury it either. The timing of the decision is awkward for Cons as it gives Lab a fresh attack line to disrupt Cons media narrative plan for the closing phase.

  22. @Daniel,

    Even in a Tory safe seat, a Tory poster in the window or flag in the garden would be asking for a brick. Agree the left is more aggressive than ever, but that’s where we are.

  23. @ VARIOUS – hung parliament odds:

    Almost always going to be best on betfair:
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.119040708

    currently equivalent of 11/2, slightly better than y’day

    @ GOAROUNDNOW – yes, bookmakers (or betfair programmers) will lay off large bets on certain scenarios in other linked/opposing scenarios. The “big money” is being placed on/against a conservative majority and that mathematically has to balance with hung parliament (and small chance of LAB majority) otherwise you’d be able to arbitrage the difference. Other slightly more complicated relationships would be well within the realms of the bookmakers/programmers.

  24. https://twitter.com/KantarPublic/status/869935631471972353

    Latest #KantarPublicUK #GE2017 #polling: #Conservative 43% (+1) #Labour 33% (-1) #LibDems 11% (+2) #UKIP 4% (nc)

    http://uk.kantar.com/ge2017/2017/despite-being-trusted-most-on-the-nhs-labour-remain-behind-in-the-polls/

  25. @Daniel
    That still doesn’t explain why they would lie to pollsters though. I think a more convincing explanation would be shy-nonvoters. The sort that say they will definitely vote, and definitely vote Labour, but in reality will think of an excuse on the actual day not to turn up.

  26. Jesus! What is up with the 30 years out of date views of Lambeth on this site?!

    Anyway, I have a contrasting idea to most here. Based on the enthusiasm seen by older voters when this election was called and the fact that the Conservative campaign hasn’t really done much to inspire enthusiasm, could the polls be overestimating the older turnout?

    Will a lot of the 4 million people who were enthusiatically voting for UKIP last time be bothered to turn up in that number for the Conservatives?

    In my own young person Facebook echo chamber, there is a significant increase in people commenting and voting even on the referendum last year. My brother who has never bothered voting is now flying back early from his holiday to do it. Anecdotal I know so not much concrete to go on but at least the election’s interesting now

  27. ExileinYorks

    MacKinlay is top headline on the BBC news website right now. Not sure how long it will last there, but it means news will filter through to the public to some extent. Surely not a vote-changer, but helps Labour build a negative picture about Tories

  28. Daniel, I think it is more interesting to look at what is behind the social media storm, I think it reflects a level of dissatisfaction that is leading to engagement, and that is sometimes ugly on all sides, very much so given the high entropy of the system.

    This shy tory thing is being grasped like a pillow by some and I do understand, I recall the last election well, my pillow was wet with tears.

  29. I don see how labour can say anything. He hasn’t been found guilty of anything and if they try and suggest otherwise it could jeopardise his chances of a fair trial. Can’t see how they can talk much about it at all

  30. There seems to be 2 Daniels around here So I will change my name to Daniel C to avoid confusions.

  31. A point about methodology. In the 2015 campaign a lot was made about the difference between online and phone polls. The phone polls seemed to better reflect the eventual outcome I think.

    I haven’t seen any of this discussion this time round. Does anyone know whether the polls are mostly online or phone polls now?

  32. @Rich
    The increased level of anger leads me to believe that more people will vote on the left. I don’t agree with people being aggressive as a tactic to change people’s vote, but I can imagine that some older people hearing how passionate their grandchildren are about Corbyn will abstain rather than vote Conservative. I think that’s more than enough to compensate for any shy-Tory effect.
    That doesn’t mean I think that ICM etc have it wrong. I just think it will be to do with turnout rather than people being “shy” in answering surveys.

  33. Candy

    That looks like the poll from 2 days ago.

  34. I agree there is no reason to lie to an online poll if you’re a shy tory. However, I imagine shy tories would be far more likely to refuse to answer.

  35. Daniel, I think the trend is for more internet but there is a mixture, unsure of details, and the results are not divergent of normal expectations.

  36. Trevor Warne
    I have my own seat model. In it, there are around 10 seats where the remaining UKIP vote (now they are on 4/5% nationally) is larger than the predicted Labour majority and UKIP have withdrawn. Obviously, the particular seats change as the national figures change, but the number of them is pretty consistent.
    That’s assuming 100% of these voters go blue. In all likelihood, some will abstain and some will vote Labour. I think adding half these voters to Con is more likely to be accurate. In which case, Cons add around an extra 5 seats.

  37. Steven Wheeler,

    Habit, perhaps. Or they might just find the experience of politics very unpleasant/alienating, and thus not respond to pollsters at all.

  38. Can somebody discuss with me what they think turnout will be? Is 70% fanciful??

  39. Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard:

    CON 45 (-4)
    LAB 40 (+6)
    LD 7 (=)

  40. Daniel, I can concur with your findings from attacks of the opposition parties.

    I had put up a post here, not sure if it ever got out of moderation, it was a quote from a friend who we go way back and how he was calling out anyone for not voting for corbyn as total c words.

    I did reply on who I was voting, and said I was not ashamed to stand by my democratic choice – just to be shot down as still being a c word.

    It really has enraged, what otherwise would be normally placid and not engaged with politics type people.

    I am not the sort of person who won’t speak my mind, and I’m not afraid to get into a heated debate. But I have felt, even on this campaign, its just better to not say anything as I really can’t be bothered with the tirade that will come my way if I do…

    It will be a sorry state if this continues.

  41. I mean, I’ve had to unfollow most of my friends on Facebook just to stop the aggravation of “Nobody Likes a Tory” posts and the like. I suppose that, if people don’t want to live in an echo chamber, they have to be careful about the tunes they sing.

  42. Daniel,

    That’s a very good point. Conversely, someone who has changed their mind from Conservative to Labour is probably more likely to want to share their opinion with a pollster. New converts to anything are always the most enthusiastic. That could magnify the effect you mentioned. Perhaps there’s more to the Shy-Tory effect than I had imagined.

  43. Ipsos MORI phone poll has CON lead down 10. Now CON 45% LAB 40%

    From Mike Smithson.

    Labour on 40%. Gamechanger – this is one of the most favourable pollsters for Tories. YouGov might show a Labour lead soon.

  44. I think there’s a major problem with electoral calculus. If you perform the simple check of inputting exactly the same percentages that were recorded 2015, you get a Tory majority of 64.

    As we clearly don’t currently have a Tory majority of 64, this says to me that something about the way that their algorithm apportions seats to national voting percentages is very wrong.

    Obviously, the same national vote split can be apportioned to give all manner of combinations of seats, but I would assume that the last election would have to be the most logical starting point. to do this. Again, this is based on exactly the same inputs as the result of the last election, so its not about how the UKIP vote is redistributed.

  45. First 40% for Labour

  46. So 5 point lead for Cons in Ipsis Mori. No sign of a Corbyn Govt despite the increase. Ps; I honestly can’t see Lab getting 40% but we shall see..

  47. @Bill
    While I completely sympathise with not wanting to have offensive posts on my timeline – isn’t unfollowing people you disagree with part of what causes the echochamber?

  48. @ExileInYorks

    I don’t think Labour will be able to make much of the Thanet story – all the parties have had their own rogues. Had it been several sitting MPs that would have been different.

    I think its effect will be small but certainly not a good one for May

  49. So Conservatives still at the 45 mark, which they pretty much have been all election period. I think the Lib Dem vote is being under represented – not sure about Labour at 40 though.

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