A variety of new and newish polls today.

Starting with the newest of the regular polls, Kantar‘s latest topline figures are CON 43%(+1), LAB 33%(-1), LDEM 11%(+2), UKIP 4%(nc). Fieldwork was between Thursday and Tuesday. The changes are not significant in themselves, but unlike most recent polls don’t show continuing movement towards Labour. Note also that there is a methodological change – Kantar now estimate how people who say don’t know will vote based on upon their demographics and whether they find May or Corbyn more trustworthy. The impact of this chance is to decrease the Labour vote by a point (so without it, the Conservative lead would barely have changed at all). Tables are here.

We also saw a Panelbase poll today. This is not actually new – it is the poll that was in the field during the Manchester bombing last week, which Panelbase made the decision to withhold in the light of the tragedy. Topline figures are CON 48%, LAB 33%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 4%. Fieldwork was back between the 19th and 23rd of May. I’ve not included changes as there are significant methodological changes here – Panelbase have tightened their turnout filter to only include people who say 10/10, and they reweight their voting intention question so the age matches the age profile of people who voted in 2015. As with other companies whose turnout model is based upon replicating the age profile of 2015 voters this has a substantial effect. Panelbase say without it their poll would have shown the lead narrowing by 6 points from their previous poll (implying they would otherwise be showing an eight point Tory lead on their old method!). Panelbase tabs are here. In their comments Panelbase also say they will be releasing a new poll in the next day or two which again has the Tory lead falling.

Thirdly there was a new Ipsos MORI Scottish poll. Topline voting intention there is SNP 43%, CON 25%, LAB 25%, LDEM 5%. As ever, the SNP are in a clear first place, but down from the last election. Where it had appeared that the Scottish Conservatives were now the clear second placed party, this suggests that Labour may have recovered into joint-second place (that would also be very good news for the SNP – under FPTP the SNP benefit from being the dominant pro-independence party when the unionist parties are split three ways). Full details are here.

There was also a new SurveyMonkey poll for the Sun. This has topline figures of CON 44%(nc), LAB 38%(+2), LDEM 6%(nc), UKIP 4%(-1). Now, SurveyMonkey are not members of the British Polling Council and we don’t have any tables or further methodological detail to examine. However, they did poll at the 2015 election so have a record to judge. Their method is unusual – sample is gathered by randomly selecting people at the end of other surveys hosted on the surveymonkey platform. Back in 2015 they were the only company whose pre-election poll got the Conservative lead about right…but because they got both Labour and the Conservatives too low their average error across all parties was the highest (and the BPC inquiry found that their sample was still heavily skewed towards the politically interested… though they may have corrected that since then). In short, make of that what you will – it may be that their approach does do something that traditional polling does not… or it may be they just got lucky in 2015.


770 Responses to “New Kantar, Panelbase, MORI and Surveymonkey polls”

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  1. Craig

    If Curtice has more information, then my opinion is irrelevant.

    Looking at around a 100 constituencies, I would say that there is a very heavy influence of tactical voting (not really tactical, just against the Blue team) in those figures.

  2. I though Amber Rudd did well tonight even before I heard about her father’s death. Now I am really impressed.

  3. Ah- so its over.

    It would appear from my Twitter feed and the news websites that I did not miss anything of any consequence at all.

    I suspect what there was to miss will all be forgotten after May and Corbyns individual sit-downs on Friday night. Then those ones will be forgotten when people are actually in the polling booth : the ones registered and who show up that is.

  4. Exile in Yorks

    Last night I said “Get back to me after a Full Scottish poll”. So …..

    You asked if Unionists would rally around SCon (or words to that effect). The answer would seem to be a clear “No”.

    Davidson’s strategy was to make SCon the main Scottish opposition party (in votes as well as seats) and in that she seems to have failed. With SLab and SCon in a dead heat at 25% of the vote in this poll, that objective is far from being attained.

    Indeed, SCon (in this poll) are even more unpopular than the last time I saw a “I’d never vote for party X” question. This time Scon 60% : SNP 46% : SLab 41%.

    Unsurprisingly the “Wisdom of Crowds” question as to which party will gain most votes produces a very clear result – SNP 81% : SLab 6% : SCon 5% – and that is the context in which the election is being fought in Scotland.

    Part of the SLab recovery would seem to be down to how Jeremy Corbyn has come across. On the “Best PM” question, he gets 40%, while May is only within moe ahead at 42%.

    While the numbers saying they might change their mind on VI are quite small, the SLab vote appears the softest – SCon 12% : SNP 17% : SLab 42%.

    As to how they might go –

    SCon – Slab 43% : SNP 11% : SLD 27%
    SNP – SCon 1% : SLAB 54% : SLD 10% : SGP 4%
    SLAB – SCon 10% : SNP 17% : SLD 19% : SGP 23%

    (Though these SLD and SGP possibilities seem rather unlikely, or even unfeasible).

  5. Danny

    ‘No deal is better than a bad deal’ is literally obvious’

    Not to me.
    ‘A bad deal’ is meaningless. It is just a deal that Theresa may says is a bad deal. She is not going to elaborate on what that might be.
    But “No Deal” is something very clear: exiting the EU with no agreement of any sort on anything, and trading on WTO terms.
    I find that pretty scary. Not informing the British Public what the consequences of this might be whilst flagging it up as a strong possibility seems to me irresponsible. Journalists failing to press politicians to explain what it would be like is disappointing, To say the least.

  6. Candy

    “There are loads of weird results like that. Not sure what is going on.”

    The more you delve into the YouGov ‘nowcast’ pool (not poll) results per individual constituencies the more threadbare and absurd it becomes.

  7. I expect there to be a further narrowing of the polls. May does seem to be very much on the defensive.

  8. I note the BBC led with Rudd accusing Corbyn of having a magic money tree, and with her claim about the ‘coalition of chaos’. That may hit home quite effectively. What will the papers go with I wonder?

  9. I was a touch too young, but did Foot back in the 80s get these big crowds that Corbyn is getting?

  10. @ Old Nat

    Thanks for the analysis.

  11. Totally agree PatrickBrian. Its not good enough. May should be pressed on this as it may well impact upon voter intentions

  12. YouGov tonight have a poll from last 2 days showing a 3 point lead for CON

  13. See the new YouGov weekly poll has a 3pt lead to the Conservatives – which would mean a hung parliament.

    I think we may see a Labour lead before election day now.

  14. @PatrickBrian

    Regarding the deal or no deal: they’ll simply calculate the costs. So if the EU demand £100bn (the cost of running the NHS in England for a year), but no deal would simply cost about £15bn in tariffs, then no deal is a no-brainer.

    It also depends on how well-prepared UK industry is in 2019. If they’ve won lots of new business in the rest of the world, and rejigged their supply lines, then no deal becomes more attractive than paying a load of dosh for business that we’re no longer doing with the europeans.

    If the EU were not demanding an exit fee at all (because we have paid everything we owe already as per the treaties), then yes, walking away from the table in a fit of pique would be silly. But it looks like there are holes in their budget due to fraud and they have the choice of a) tackle the fraud and retrieve the money b) get Germany, Netherland, the Scandies etc to cough up to fill the gap or c) try to scam the money off us.

  15. @MIKE

    Normally its the conservatives that run a good campaign and labour a below average one, but this time its been labour running circles around the conservatives. The difference between the two isn’t even remotely close. There has been talk of them having drafted in folks from the Sanders insurgent campaign in the US which was also brilliantly run, I wonder whether that is where they are getting their brilliantly run campaign from?

  16. YouGov/Times:

    CON 42 (-1)
    LAB 39 (+3)
    LD 7 (-2)
    UKIP 4 (=)
    OTH 8 (+1)

    Changes vs 26th
    30th-31st May
    N=2,003

  17. CON: 42% (-1)
    LAB: 39% (+3)
    LDEM: 7% (-2)
    UKIP: 4% (-)

    (via @YouGov / 30 – 31 May)

  18. TM looks very worn out and haggard. I’ve just received £100 M&S vouchers from BT for signing up to BT Infinity for 18 months. Should I donate the vouchers to May?

  19. I agree with what other posters have said about Amber Rudd’s bravery in turning up tonight but I don’t think it’s too partisan to say she doesn’t know anything about how Monopoly is played!

  20. Tweets by Britain Elects:

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 42% (-1)
    LAB: 39% (+3)
    LDEM: 7% (-2)
    UKIP: 4% (-)

    (via @YouGov / 30 – 31 May)

  21. I said it would take a Lib Dem collapse for Labour to go any higher. Is that what we’re starting to see, or is this just normal variation?

  22. Mike,
    “yes, that would have been a very good move by the Con team, to drop May in at the last minute to stand in for a grieving colleague.”

    Not if May then messed up.

  23. Woof, dat YouGov poll. 20% lead down to 3%!!!

    Either YouGov has gone barmy or the Tories really are in freefall.

  24. @Ssimon – Telegraph and DM both featuring May’s no show in their online editions, along with a DM attack on Corbyn’s immigration stance.

    BBC also saying the big story is May, with clips of her laughing unconvincingly while trying to brush off her decision not to attend.

    Having not seen the debate, my first impressions are that May is the story.

  25. (fpt)
    Well, I sat through the whole thing and quite enjoyed it. Corbyn I thought was quite strained and subdued. Farron better than expected, but lacking gravitas. For me, Lucas and Robertson were the most effective. Lucas was clear, passionate and coherent. Robertson was composed, calm and made good points. Nuttall too ranty, and Rudd too much of a cold fish. Oh, and Leanne Wood was rather sweet, if that’s not too condescending. (Actually, of course it’s too condescending. I was impressed that she made the case for Wales, effectively conveying that it’s overlooked by the UK. And she got in a telling point about the contrast between Corbyn’s fine words and what his party actually delvers in Wales).

    The audience was supposed to have been selected by polling companies to be representative both on party allegiance and Brexit vote. So was it unrepresentative, or was its reaction a genuine response to what was said? I don’t know.

  26. SSIMON

    If Con are down to 42% and Lab up to 39% then Lab are picking up Con voters

  27. Lucas was highly articulate. She is a bright lady.

  28. @ ALEXW

    Re: Labour’s excellent campaign. My guess is that those in the Labour Party positions of power have had decades of practice with campaigning. Now they are putting it all into the election campaign.

    What they have less practice with is running a government – which I would expect them to run like it was a political campaign. But with the FTPA they will last five years, as none of the other non-Conservative parties will be prepared to appear to be supporting the Conservatives by brining the government down (unless economic armageddon is occurring).

    I would also expect no Brexit at all now – it will be removed by the helpful ruse of a second referendum with the option of staying in or punitive terms from the EU.

  29. As mentioned, at least one pollster will be heating their hat in nine days.

    Experiences on the doorstep tell me there is an enthused youth vote (note Corbyn’s poorly contextualised appeal on tuition fees), a middle aged vote that’s worn out, but also an old Labour vote that is currently cautious. A strong ground campaign on the day is what wins or loses this for Labour.

  30. I understand we’re going to be getting some London polls tomorrow, which should throw light as to whether the Lab surge is confined there, or perhaps spread out in the country.

  31. ALLAN

    No evidence Tories in freefall. Labour on the up, more so.

    Strange times.

  32. It’s the trend that matters.

    YouGov have not been especially generous to LAB in the recent past. They haven’t changed their methodology.

    Take this poll for example:

    CON: 48%
    LAB: 24%
    LDEM: 12%
    UKIP: 7%

    (YouGov / 18-19 Apr)

    So we’ve gone from a 24 point lead to a 3 point lead. Crikey. No-one expected this.

    And I can’t exactly see CON VI picking up after today…

  33. Well it’s going to be interesting to see whether tomorrow’s rumoured Panelbase poll shows the predicted reduction in the Tory lead and if so by how much.

  34. Candy
    Forget the tarrifs. What about elaborate border controls, Eu-centered businesses relocating, needless queues at ports and airports, no flights from smaller airports, visas, hard border in Ireland; repatriation of four million people, with split families; visas for holidays; a general hostility towards us from our nearest neighbours; end of student exchanges, collaboration on security, Euratom etc etc.; fishing wars…. I could go on a long time.
    Perhaps not all of these would happen. But even if just some of them…

    The government need to EXPLAIN how it would work.

  35. Which polls do we expect tomorrow? Could be in for a good bit of fun over the next week and a half.

  36. PHILOTES
    @RICH

    “Can you easily tell the difference between the sound of 40 or 50% of the audience clapping enthusiastically, vs say 80%.
    Just because a lot of people were clapping Corbyn, doesn’t mean there weren’t an equal number of Conservative supporters there sitting quietly.”

    I think it’s just the thought of people clapping ole Jeremy at all that upsets Rich………..

  37. Drmibbles

    Does the trend really matter though, there’s not much time left for the trend to continue and if CON are still ahead on polling day then they’ll win won’t they?

  38. Here are the YouGov changes since April 19th:

    CON: -6
    LAB: +15
    LDEM: -5
    UKIP: -3

    There is an underlying trend of LAB are hoovering up undecided voters and converting DK’s, as well as a definite CON -> LAB switch which is outside margin of error.

  39. Kester Leek

    ALLAN

    No evidence Tories in freefall. Labour on the up, more so.

    Strange times
    ___________

    You’re absolutely correct. It’s the Tory lead that is in freefall according to YouGov but more to do with Labour on the up and not so much the Tories losing VI. However just a few weeks ago they were pushing 50% then TM trashed her lead with her manafesto disaster.

  40. @Candy – “Regarding the deal or no deal: they’ll simply calculate the costs. So if the EU demand £100bn (the cost of running the NHS in England for a year), but no deal would simply cost about £15bn in tariffs, then no deal is a no-brainer.

    It also depends on how well-prepared UK industry is in 2019. If they’ve won lots of new business in the rest of the world, and rejigged their supply lines, then no deal becomes more attractive than paying a load of dosh for business that we’re no longer doing with the europeans.”

    I think this demonstrates the fundamental failure to understand reality that benights many of those proclaiming the ‘no deal’ mantra. It really is nothing much to do with tariffs or whether or not we end up on WTO terms, although that is a significant issue.

    It’s about how we actually do stuff, in a myriad of practical ways.

    ‘No deal’ means Dover ceases to be an effective export location, as it cannot physically accomodate the additional customs checks without removing a chunk of the white cliffs to create more space.

    ‘No deal’ means a cessation of all sorts of police and security cooperation, which would be a disaster for everyone.

    ‘No deal’ means that the UK loses half it’s EU exports of meat, because there isn’t a license port that can handle the quantities currently being exported.

    These are three rather small examples, but there are so many more. ‘No deal’ means vastly more disruption than simple tariffs, and I suspect many people simply don’t understand what 44 years of integration actually means.

    The lunacy of May’s uniquely vapid and empty slogan is that ‘no deal’ actually is a bad deal.

  41. CONNOR

    No. At the last election CON were 7% ahead of LAB.

    To ‘win’ the election, bearing in mind CON have picked up extra votes in Scotland and Wales, they need to be 9-10% AHEAD nationally, to gain any seats from Labour in England on a uniform swing.

    Those YG numbers put the election result firmly in hung parliament territory with CON losing perhaps 30 seats or more.

  42. Listen, I’ll go on record and say if that audience was absolutely proportional and non partisan, then really it should be a landslide for Labour, lol. I just can’t see it. As a I said, he was cheered hugely for saying he won the labour leadership election, which was borderline irrelevant.

    I do like Ian’s turnout bet. If the youth finally vote, 70% is possible, but does election fatigue count against that? Anyway, Betfred near me at 8-1 seems rather generous??

  43. Here is You Gov’s VI data from the EU Referendum to May 30th (tonight’s poll).

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BzTTW1ecy-NDSTY1aXlzem0wWjRpcGN3eENVMFZXS0U5YVJr/view?usp=drivesdk

    Some slightly obvious trends…

  44. Alec

    @Candy
    Thank you! Just what i wanted to say,but you put it better!

  45. As AW is you gov it would be churlish to question what the hell is going on. at least in 2015 all the pollsters were wrong and it was just a question of by how much.
    but now labour are either at 33 and static or 39 and climbing and the tories either at 43-46 or 41. Yougov is the outlier at both ends of the spectrum with lowest tory and highest labour.

    By polling day next week i expect labour to have lead in you gov but other polls to all show a tory lead ranging from 6-12.

    My prediction: 45/34

  46. @ CMJ

    Looks like a process out of control ;-)

  47. @alec

    “No deal” also means no financial passporting for financial services, a hard border in Northern Ireland, and so on.

  48. Kensington was very Remain so perhaps Gina Miller having an effect and lots of anti brexit tactical voting.

    Even City of London & Westminster Only leaning Conservative. Finchley only shows 1% gap between Labour and Con.

    Richmond Park is down as Toss up between Tories and Lib Dems
    Twickenham LibDem Gain Kingston & Suburtiton Leaning LibDem

  49. Having some fun on Minitab there CMJ?

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