A variety of new and newish polls today.

Starting with the newest of the regular polls, Kantar‘s latest topline figures are CON 43%(+1), LAB 33%(-1), LDEM 11%(+2), UKIP 4%(nc). Fieldwork was between Thursday and Tuesday. The changes are not significant in themselves, but unlike most recent polls don’t show continuing movement towards Labour. Note also that there is a methodological change – Kantar now estimate how people who say don’t know will vote based on upon their demographics and whether they find May or Corbyn more trustworthy. The impact of this chance is to decrease the Labour vote by a point (so without it, the Conservative lead would barely have changed at all). Tables are here.

We also saw a Panelbase poll today. This is not actually new – it is the poll that was in the field during the Manchester bombing last week, which Panelbase made the decision to withhold in the light of the tragedy. Topline figures are CON 48%, LAB 33%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 4%. Fieldwork was back between the 19th and 23rd of May. I’ve not included changes as there are significant methodological changes here – Panelbase have tightened their turnout filter to only include people who say 10/10, and they reweight their voting intention question so the age matches the age profile of people who voted in 2015. As with other companies whose turnout model is based upon replicating the age profile of 2015 voters this has a substantial effect. Panelbase say without it their poll would have shown the lead narrowing by 6 points from their previous poll (implying they would otherwise be showing an eight point Tory lead on their old method!). Panelbase tabs are here. In their comments Panelbase also say they will be releasing a new poll in the next day or two which again has the Tory lead falling.

Thirdly there was a new Ipsos MORI Scottish poll. Topline voting intention there is SNP 43%, CON 25%, LAB 25%, LDEM 5%. As ever, the SNP are in a clear first place, but down from the last election. Where it had appeared that the Scottish Conservatives were now the clear second placed party, this suggests that Labour may have recovered into joint-second place (that would also be very good news for the SNP – under FPTP the SNP benefit from being the dominant pro-independence party when the unionist parties are split three ways). Full details are here.

There was also a new SurveyMonkey poll for the Sun. This has topline figures of CON 44%(nc), LAB 38%(+2), LDEM 6%(nc), UKIP 4%(-1). Now, SurveyMonkey are not members of the British Polling Council and we don’t have any tables or further methodological detail to examine. However, they did poll at the 2015 election so have a record to judge. Their method is unusual – sample is gathered by randomly selecting people at the end of other surveys hosted on the surveymonkey platform. Back in 2015 they were the only company whose pre-election poll got the Conservative lead about right…but because they got both Labour and the Conservatives too low their average error across all parties was the highest (and the BPC inquiry found that their sample was still heavily skewed towards the politically interested… though they may have corrected that since then). In short, make of that what you will – it may be that their approach does do something that traditional polling does not… or it may be they just got lucky in 2015.


770 Responses to “New Kantar, Panelbase, MORI and Surveymonkey polls”

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  1. JSB

    I believe AW works or at least worked/assisted You Gov, so kind of unfair to ask him to do that, IMO

  2. People complain the audience was too left wing.

    Then it’s revealed that ComRes picked them.

    Well if they applied their harsh demographic weightings to try to gain 50/50 balance, then the audience probably was 90% LAB.

  3. Can anyone tell me what the turnout figure is expected to be, I want to have a bet on over 70% at 9-1 , is it worth it ?

    Thanks

  4. @ Danny

    We discussed the relevance of Brexit to this election on a previous thread, and we clearly have divergent views on how influential. However, while being a dog that (mostly) hasn’t barked, Brexit still lurks menacingly in the background and it has influence on VI.

    Take the mantra “No deal is better than a bad deal”. This plays well to the Cons leaver vote and to blue UKIP so is holding part of the core vote. However, for Cons remainers the mantra has little appeal – they didn’t want Brexit anyway, and are likely to view both no deal and a bad deal as undesirable outcomes. If they are sufficiently negative about the as yet undefined path, they might consider other options….

  5. The debate tonight HAS to hurt TM and the Tories… They were savaged.

    I can’t see them being able to spin it to her taking a step back and watching it unfold.. They were baying for blood.. Surely the electorate will notice this too?

  6. General verdict from the media is there was no clear winner, but one clear loser: TM

    Long after we have forgotten anything that was said, we will remember that May did not show up.

  7. @Ian,

    Wait until Saturday for a better long range weather forecast. Could be heavy showers.

  8. As expected, all the noise on social media is about May “not turning up” for the debate. Stitched up like a kipper by Corbyn, in the move of the campaign so far.

    Can’t imagine anything else will filter through from the debate, so job done for Labour.

    ComRes? Can’t imagine they’ll be asked to pick an audience again.

  9. Rich

    Thanks

  10. ExileinYorks

    The problem I have with “the no deal is better than a bad deal” is where on earth does that leave us? It has not been properly challenged and would lead to further market uncertainty and likely damage to the economy. We cannot just magic up trade deals.

  11. On the audience, let’s just assume for arguments sake polling is currently 40% Cons, 40% Lab, and let’s assume the EU referendum was 50% / 50%.

    Can anybody honestly tell me they feel the Conservatives and Leave were represented correctly based on those polls.

    I know I’ll be called partisan, but it honestly didn’t feel like that. Corbyn even got a rapturous thundering applause for saying he convincingly won the Labour leadership election.

  12. TM delegated it, good call.

  13. Mike Pearce
    @Exile in Yorks

    Totally agree about “no Deal” I find it frustrating that no politicians or journos are willing to go there to tell us what “no deal” will look like. it wasn’t tackled tonight.

  14. Danny and Tom –

    Really interesting points. Pollsters clearly either got it wrong in 2015 (or got lucky), and are using this election to adjust their weighting and make progress in the “science” of gauging public opinion by means of 1000 samples and weighting. The pool is evolving, I hope, and traditionally apathetic voters are getting more involved, thereby adding bumpiness to the pitch, as it were.

    It reminds me of scientific researchers who appear to be making progress towards a provable (or at least disprovable) solution, but are mainly interested in the funding that will allow them to continue to exist.

    The result on 9th June will earn some pollsters future clients’ funding, and send others back to the drawing board (not that they make most of their money from political polls, but it helps their kudos if they get them right)

    For what it’s worth, I thought Tim Farron did best (or had the best writers), but the closing speeches lacked personality (because they’d been written before the debate)

    The moderator did reasonably well considering the fact that she didn’t have a mute button (or the threat of one) to shut them up when it wasn’t their turn.

  15. @Ian,

    But, if it’s looking dry, and we feel the youth vote will finally come out, could be a good bet…

  16. The major papers Sun, Guardian, Metro, Mirror are all reporting the death of her father as true.

    I can’t believe that May asked her to attend. That’s just repugnant.

  17. Dr Mibbles

    There you are – even you’re doing it! Theresa May didn’t “not show up”, she was never going in the first place, and nor was Corbyn. But, as you say, that’s the message the average punter is going to get, so it’s a very slick bit of footwork by the Labour campaign team.

  18. Drmibbles

    Don’t think her being missing will lose her diddly squat. There’s is another to event on
    Friday when she will be there.. so not a long time to talk about this .. it will be all about that starting tomorrow.

  19. Apparently, Survey Monkey had a sample size of 19,000! It would be interesting to know what bias corrections they use, if any.

  20. @RICH

    Can you easily tell the difference between the sound of 40 or 50% of the audience clapping enthusiastically, vs say 80%.

    Just because a lot of people were clapping Corbyn, doesn’t mean there weren’t an equal number of Conservative supporters there sitting quietly.

  21. AlexW

    Agree, that won’t play well with the public. Of course it’s not a game changer, but it’s all part of the general negative noise about the Tories which is starting to feed into the opinion polls IMO.

  22. Theresa May not turning up and then sending a grieving colleague…I cannot see this going down well with voters at all. Quite unlucky for her but all the same. Amber Rudd deserves a lot of credit.

    I can only guess that Theresa May’s Conservative enemies briefed the press.

  23. Phil

    On ComRes picking the audience

    They might have done a bad job, though I doubt it. They are professionals. If they had that error of unrepresentative sample, then they would have it in their polls too. So, no worry for Tories then.

    I really think that it is ABT plus annoyance with TM. It was interesting how the others chose the pick on Rudd. It wasn’t arranged, they just knew that it was coming. So, they shared the job. While Rudd did what she could (and probably deserves some praise), she was in an indefensible position. The whole thing falls on TM – the only question is if it falls on the Conservatives.

  24. JSB,
    “AW
    Please, please use your wisdom, experience, intuition and just tell us which poll to trust.
    Big difference.”

    Well he can’t, can he. But I expect he believes in his own brand.

  25. Mike

    The only way they could have got a more balanced audience would have been to bus people in from outside Cambridge

  26. Jim Messina being rather uncomplimentary on twitter about the Yougov -I mean what does he know about polling .

  27. @Ian

    Well recent turnouts have been as follows:

    EU Ref 2016: 72%

    General election 2015: 66.4%

    IndyRef1 2014: 84%

    General election 2010: 65.1%

    General election 2005: 61.4%

    General election 2001: 59.4%

    General election 1997: 71.3%

    General election 1992: 77.7%

    General election 1987: 75.3%

    General election 1983: 72.7%

    General election 1979: 76%

    People turn out when they think something big is at stake – the eu and scottish referendums, or to prevent a lefty lab from getting power in the 1980’s and 1992.

  28. Rich

    I won’t call you partisan on this one! (though you usually are) I found the make-up of the audience quite odd too; there didn’t seem to be any conservatives at all.

    Perhaps there aren’t any left in the country? (except here obviously) :)

  29. @ Mike Pearce

    Whether no deal is (or isn’t) better than a bad deal, is not really a discussion for this site.

    However, its influence on VI through it’s effect on Cons leavers and Cons remainers is relevant. In my opinion it drives a wedge when they need a unifying slogan, so is bad politics.

  30. Philotes

    Fair point, it could well have been 50/50 but the Con 50 were sitting quietly, and the Labour 50 were the opposite.

    Another reason not to have an audience for this kind of thing, as I really don’t think it should be an X Factor type event. Or is that just me being middle aged?

  31. drmibbles,
    “ComRes picked them.

    Well if they applied their harsh demographic weightings to try to gain 50/50 balance, then the audience probably was 90% LAB.”

    logically they would not apply a de-rating, thats about whether they vote not who they support. The companies seem to agree on who wants what quite closely. So an industry standard sample sides with Corbyn?

  32. Hawthorn

    What’s it got to do with the voters. According to the sun Amber insisted on doing it. If that’s what happened.. that’s what happened. You need to get out more

  33. @AARON

    And even worse for May Amber Rudd’s father died on Monday. Its pretty obvious how that is going to play out and the narrative that is going to used – May was too scared to attend and forced a grieving colleague to attend. Now I have no idea how true that is, and there’s a good chance Rudd herself thought it better that she attend, but that doesn’t matter, it matters how it can and will be spun.

    May should have took Rudd’s place then told everyone why. It would have won quite a bit of support from wavering voters, and help firm up the narrative about her.

  34. I just got 13/8 for Cons on 40-45% and 9/4 on Lab 35-40%

    Presumably lots of money has already been placed on Cons over 45% and Lab under 35%
    Con Maj still 1/5 !

  35. All the BBC or anyone else can do is ask people their political affiliations and background and hope they don’t lie.

    The left do seem more likely to turn up for these things in general, even when I have been at hustings in areas where they are quite strong.

    Given that May wasn’t going to be there there may even have been fewer Tories wanting to turn up if not almost boycott the event.

    Add to that we know that people who are on panels like Yougov or comes are more likely to be interested in and active in politics.

    Once it goes live there isn’t much the BBC can do. If it turns out to be too partisan they are onto a going over from the other side.

    Having said that as I noted a few days back, there does seem to be a tendency of the left to react to challenge by getting angry and giving as good as they get while the right tend to get indignant and stomp off.

    At the end of the day if your side doesn’t turn up or walks off half way through, you can’t really complain about the result.

    Peter.

  36. I did hear Nuttall get some loud applause on at least one of his points.

    But in general I suspect the left-wing of the audience was simply more vocal and inclined to clap.

    I’ve heard the same tendency in QT debates going back for decades, and used to find it quite amusing/predictable.

    A good politician tries to ignore the tiny vocal audience and instead look to the camera and direct their message to the wider viewership.

  37. Exile in Yorks,
    if you have followed m other posts, you will gather I think this may become about what the leave voters think rather than the remain ones. If soft Brexit leave start deserting May then she is sunk. ‘No deal is better than a bad deal’ is literally obvious, but as generally understood, it might also scare away the soft Brexit vote.

  38. Perhaps a question for Anthony:-

    Can the divergence in pollsters be simplified by stating those asking but ignoring youth stated turnout are showing the >10% leads but those asking and factoring in youth turnout are well under 10%?

    Or is it more complex.

  39. Amber Rudd prepping for it and performing like that 2 days after her dad died , I don’t know how she did that!

  40. Phil

    If Amber Rudd did insist then that is a credit to her.

  41. AlexW

    yes, that would have been a very good move by the Con team, to drop May in at the last minute to stand in for a grieving colleague.

    Again, seems to illustrate the huge gulf in quick thinking between the two campaign teams. If anything has suprised me, it’s been the brilliance of the Labour campaign, considering how chaotic they seem to have been over the past year.

  42. Candy, Rich

    Thanks , gonna go for it…

  43. @Brilliant Smith

    The YouGov prediction thing has some odd results,

    They had Kensington down as Con 43%, Lab 41%. This is a seat the Cons have held since inception and at the last election it was Con 52.3%, Lab 31.1%.

    They also had Copeland (home of Sellafield and nuclear power) as Lab 45%, Con 44%. It was won in a by-election just six months ago with Con 44.3%, Lab 37.3%.

    There are loads of weird results like that. Not sure what is going on.

  44. Did anyone actually enjoy the debate?, it was by far the most chaotic debate since they started in 2010 imo.

    Also it what the most partisan audience by far, and before anyone attacks me with the usual lines don’t bother, back in 2015 Ed Miliband suffered at the hands of a clearly partisan right leaning audience, I stated on this blog that it was wrong to allow that to happen as it added nothing to that debate and nor did it add anything to this.

  45. Re: my above post

    “The decisive factor is for me to see that YouGov assume that young voters will show up on election day,” said John Curtice.

    Is it this simple? So if we assumed it was likely to jump but nowhere near as stated we could simply split the difference between, say, YG & ICM’s leads?

  46. News leading on May explaing why it was more important to chat to a few voters elsewhere.

  47. The odds on boris being PM after the election are coming in really quickly

  48. “if we assumed it was likely to jump but nowhere near as stated we could simply split the difference between, say, YG & ICM’s leads?”

    Yes. That’s what I do.

    [partisan comment] I love it when Thornberry gets intemperate[/partisan comment]

  49. On the audience: they really should make it a rule that the audience must be quiet until the end. If the audience cannot handle it, then simply pause the remove the audience, and continue without them.

    CRAIG

    Taking an average of the polls will probably be pretty close to the full result.

  50. Anymore polls tonight, or is that it?

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