A variety of new and newish polls today.

Starting with the newest of the regular polls, Kantar‘s latest topline figures are CON 43%(+1), LAB 33%(-1), LDEM 11%(+2), UKIP 4%(nc). Fieldwork was between Thursday and Tuesday. The changes are not significant in themselves, but unlike most recent polls don’t show continuing movement towards Labour. Note also that there is a methodological change – Kantar now estimate how people who say don’t know will vote based on upon their demographics and whether they find May or Corbyn more trustworthy. The impact of this chance is to decrease the Labour vote by a point (so without it, the Conservative lead would barely have changed at all). Tables are here.

We also saw a Panelbase poll today. This is not actually new – it is the poll that was in the field during the Manchester bombing last week, which Panelbase made the decision to withhold in the light of the tragedy. Topline figures are CON 48%, LAB 33%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 4%. Fieldwork was back between the 19th and 23rd of May. I’ve not included changes as there are significant methodological changes here – Panelbase have tightened their turnout filter to only include people who say 10/10, and they reweight their voting intention question so the age matches the age profile of people who voted in 2015. As with other companies whose turnout model is based upon replicating the age profile of 2015 voters this has a substantial effect. Panelbase say without it their poll would have shown the lead narrowing by 6 points from their previous poll (implying they would otherwise be showing an eight point Tory lead on their old method!). Panelbase tabs are here. In their comments Panelbase also say they will be releasing a new poll in the next day or two which again has the Tory lead falling.

Thirdly there was a new Ipsos MORI Scottish poll. Topline voting intention there is SNP 43%, CON 25%, LAB 25%, LDEM 5%. As ever, the SNP are in a clear first place, but down from the last election. Where it had appeared that the Scottish Conservatives were now the clear second placed party, this suggests that Labour may have recovered into joint-second place (that would also be very good news for the SNP – under FPTP the SNP benefit from being the dominant pro-independence party when the unionist parties are split three ways). Full details are here.

There was also a new SurveyMonkey poll for the Sun. This has topline figures of CON 44%(nc), LAB 38%(+2), LDEM 6%(nc), UKIP 4%(-1). Now, SurveyMonkey are not members of the British Polling Council and we don’t have any tables or further methodological detail to examine. However, they did poll at the 2015 election so have a record to judge. Their method is unusual – sample is gathered by randomly selecting people at the end of other surveys hosted on the surveymonkey platform. Back in 2015 they were the only company whose pre-election poll got the Conservative lead about right…but because they got both Labour and the Conservatives too low their average error across all parties was the highest (and the BPC inquiry found that their sample was still heavily skewed towards the politically interested… though they may have corrected that since then). In short, make of that what you will – it may be that their approach does do something that traditional polling does not… or it may be they just got lucky in 2015.


770 Responses to “New Kantar, Panelbase, MORI and Surveymonkey polls”

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  1. How come Theresa May is in Middlesbrough today with the polls so close? It has a 12,000 majority. Shouldn’t they be focussing on shoring up marginals? Does anyone else know about where the Tory campaign is most intense now? Has it shifted back to ultra marginals?

  2. The other day i saw a poster which said ‘I am labour and lending my vote to the liberals’. This was a logical thing to do in that constituency where my son will be voting liberal for that reason.

    In most places the logic is the other way – it is more logical or liberals to vote labour since they themselves have no chance of getting in and on the whole labour are closer to them than are the tories,

    Exactly the same applies to the Greens – although my other son is voting Green for a different reason. No one but a conservative is going to get in where he lives and he wants to make a point.

    And obviously the same kind of thing applies to UKIP and the conservatives.

    So for Labour to do well they must foster tactical voting even though in theory they disapprove of it. And whether or not the leaders of UKIP, Greens, and the LibDems approve of that is what seems to be happening.

    So Labour’s best chance, it seems to me must be to ‘smoke out’ May on Brexit, claim that if she has no clarity on ‘no deal’, is fudging the issue on an interim deal and that this amounts to economic incompetence. May then has the choice between keeping her UKIP voters or upsetting sensible Brexiters such as Sea Change who believe that wise heads will prevail.

    Actually I predict doom, not enough UKIP people will desert the Tories, not enough Tories will hold their nose and vote for Labour, and given this sscenario the chance of wise heads prevailing is zero.

    Come to think of it a few old people might feel May has deserted them and abstain, perhaps that is the best thought for the likes of me to ponder over at night.

  3. Question: have there been any polls that show how Tory Remain voters are leaning and intending to vote?

    There are seven voters in my immediate family of whom five traditionally vote Conservative.

    Four of us voted “Remain” and three “Leave”.

    Of the four “Remain” voters three are not voting Conservative in this election.

    So from a traditional five out of seven votes, the Conservatives are sinking to 4, assuming the one non-Conservative person who voted “Leave” supports Conservative this time.

    If the non-Conservative person who voted “Leave” reverts to another Party and the two traditional Conservative voters do not vote Conservative, then Conservative support shifts from five to three votes.

    That’s a forty percent downward shift in support that TM and her party have to make up by picking up UKIP and other “Leave” support

    Even if the shift in Conservative support in our family is only from 5 to 4 that is still a 20% downward shift, and all of the Conservative supporters in my immediate family live in traditionally safe Tory seats.

    One of my strongly pro-Conservative family members told me that on the morning after the Brexit vote there was dead silence on the train commuting in to London.

    This previously strong Conservative family member is seriously thinking of voting Liberal Democrat in an attempt to oust one of the stronger pro-Brexit Tory MPs, and if all those on that commuter train are thinking the same thing then they may get their wish.

    So without knowing how many people still are undecided I would suggest that counting your chickens that TM is going to get a bounce on E-Day may be a bit premature.

    As I have said previously the bounce this year in the elections I have observed is going to the centre and centre-left parties, in what I believe is a reaction to the election of Donald Trump last November.

    Now the UK may buck that trend, as I have said before, but unlike 2015 the “shy tories” in this election may not turn out to be “Tories” at all.

    One thing I found very interesting in the election in British Columbia was that very early on in the writ period 1:5 voters 55 and older said they were not voting for the either the BC Liberals or the NDP, and even more interesting was that 70% of that age group were firm in their commitment to maintain how they voted.

    The volatile voters were the ones under 35 and a large percentage of women in particular took a long time to make up their minds how they were going to vote.

    The NDP by the way on an overall province wide swing of just 0.6% in support took every seat off the BC liberals that had a swing of 5%or less because voters in those seats chose to vote very strategically, and that gained them eleven seats, while the BC Liberals only managed to pick up two seats from the NDP where they were strongest and the BC Greens 2 from the NDP as well.

    So if I were a betting man in the UK I would look at the regional swing to Labour and Conservatives in the sub regions and then calculate which seats are likely to fall to whom.

    In 2015 I calculated that the Lib Dems would fall below ten seats and that the most of them would be picked up by the Conservatives, but did not have the courage to state that on either this site or elsewhere.

    In this election I have not been close enough to get a true feel, whereas last time I was in the UK and working to help re-elect Caroline Lucas and could see the collapse of the Lib-Dem support with my own eyes on the door step and elsewhere.

  4. Probably should have introduced myself! I’ve been reading this blog for a while and thought I’d get involved! I’m just interested as there seem to be so many conflicting accounts of what is going to happen. I’m a 28 year old Tory and it has to be said, the polls look very bad. However, I do have some sympathy wiring the argument some have made here about “shy Tories” especially among the young. I know quite a few other people my age who vote Tory and UKIP and none of them are “out” – as in they only like to talk about it with those like me who agree and never on Facebook, etc. I myself am very vocal and don’t particularly care what people think of me but I’m an exception among my young right wing peers! I don’t know if this is affecting the polls at all but just wondered what you all think.

  5. @BOBINNORFOLK

    But Crick is right. Have you seen her interview with the Plymouth Herald? My God…..

    For those that have not seen it here it is.

    https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/870174112852975616/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fs.yimg.com%2Fos%2Fyc%2Fhtml%2Fembed-iframe-min.7f33a83d.html

  6. LASZLO

    Many thanks. The Sky News clip on the May Q&A is at
    http://news.sky.com/video/digi-141712th-may-journalist-questionsm2t-10900999

  7. Via Slugger’s comes this opinion of Patrick Maguire of the New Statesman on the potential for the clout of the DUP in a close outcome.

    “with the polls narrowing, the Tories could be on course for a majority of under 50 seats. At that point, the Northern Irish MPs – particularly the unionists – will really begin to matter to the narrative again.

    The DUP could, on a really good night, increase its representation from eight to 10 with victories in South Antrim and South Belfast. On a bad night, it might lose Belfast East to the cross-community Alliance and fall to seven (though this looks rather less likely).

    He continues..

    But regardless of the result, its MPs will provide May – of whom they are an enormous fan – with valuable insulation against the unpredictable whims of her backbenchers.

    Nobody drives a commons bargain like the DUP, and in the last parliament, this sort of leverage proved useful in debates over Troubles legacy prosecutions.

    Should Stormont remain mothballed and the slow return to direct rule continue, the DUP – plus one or two Ulster Unionists – could again wield outsized influence over the tone and direction of government policy on Northern Ireland..”

    https://sluggerotoole.com/2017/06/01/56-per-cent-of-northern-irish-electors-who-voted-remain-could-end-up-underrepresented-in-brexit-debates/

  8. Crick is a prize b*****n. That last word is for Barbazenzero to work out! LOL on your last reply.

  9. @ Mike 88

    I grew up as a young Tory, but left the fold in my early twenties and emigrated to Canada.

    Do you have any sense of the percentage of people in your circle who are UKIP and Tory who voted “Leave” and “Remain” who are voting TM in this election.

    By the late sixties very few of the friends and acquaintances I had in England were Tory, so I felt like a bit of an odd duck.

  10. @CANADA

    I am Tory Remainer, 27 years old

    I would vote 10/10 if pollster asks me, but I won’t really because I won’t be in my constituency on Thursday and I couldn’t be bothered to go through the application for a postal vote since where I live it is a very safe Labour seat and it wasn’t worth the hassle.

  11. How reliable do you guys think this is?

    http://britainelects.com/nowcast/

  12. My observations over the last few days:

    1) either YouGov are away with the fairies or are the second coming

    2) if the latter, all other polling companies and methodologies are without basis

    3) Even the latest You Gov poll gives a Tory majority of 12

    4) For Labour to get a working majority, they would need a 10+ point lead

    5) Aside from the You Gov poll it is over a week since a 5 point outlier

    6) For Labour to even be close to forming a government they would need to be in the lead.

    Forecast still stands at 10 point lead on the day but LOL moment would be seeing all the thousands of posts, VI related pontification and partisan accusations and then the result being a 12 seat majority for TM!

  13. @ Mike 88

    I think that the Conservatives are a tad on the high side and Labour a tad on the low side, but the issue really is what is going on in the regions and sub-regions of the country.

    A number of posters surmise that Labour are wracking up huge support in their strongholds, while forgetting the Conservatives could be doing the same.

    The question is are Labour going up in Conservative strongholds and vice versa, because it is in the marginals that this election will be won not the safe seats.

    In the last election I found a UK Parliamentary report on various parties marginal seats and then looked at the supposed swing seats in each sub region.

    In the South, outside London, for example the Tories are on 50% – no surprise there. But if both Labour and the Lib Dems are up over 2015, then certain Tory marginals are in trouble. I also observed that the Greens in one poll were on 4% in the South, so wondered if they might pick up a second seat in Bristol.

    Labour and Lib Dem support is very concentrated in the Southwest and unless one knows which seats to look at it is very simplistic to say Labour’s up therefore x seats will fall.

    I found it very interesting that the Large You Gov poll had the Lib Dems 2% higher than the regular one, so does that mean the larger survey is picking regional variation in Lib Dem support or is it just a blip that has gone away.

  14. “Craig Mackinlay (Con, South Thanet) has been charged with election offences for the 2015 election campaign in the South Thanet constituency.” – Britain Elects

  15. I watched the debate on Wednesday, and with the heavily partisan audience, thought it didn’t reflect well at all on Corbyn and his supporters because of their yob behaviour.

    Last night got to thinking whether that was Corbyn’s, 1992 Kinnock Sheffield moment. With him also talking about government positions yesterday such as Abbot at the Home Office, has crystallised the realistic possibility of a Corbyn led government.

    Maybe the Con vote will now begin to solidify and minds will be concentrated as we approach next Thursday.

  16. Some Takeaways from the Ipsos Mori poll:

    1. More Conservative voters are now considering changing their mind than Labour voters: 23% versus 21%

    2. More Lib Dem voters are thinking of changing their mind than voting Lib Dem: 48% versus 46%

    3. Among those who would change their mind 23% would vote Labour, 22% Conservative and 20% LD.

    4. During the campaign Corbyn has closed the gap on May as best person to be Prime Minister from 38 points to 15.

    5. Corbyn is now only 5 points behind Blair in 2005, 6 points ahead of Brown in 2010 and 8 points ahead of Miliband in 2015 in terms of voter satisfaction with him.

    6. May has squandered a 19 point lead ahead of Cameron in 2015, down to a 8 point one as the campaign nears it’s end. She has lost the support/satisfaction of more than 1:10 voters during the campaign, so no wonder the Tory campaign team are pulling her out of the media spotlight.

    Conclusion: If Ipsos Mori have got the turnout filter wrong then May and the Conservatives could be in real trouble on E-Day night and we still have five days to go to E-Day.

  17. Responding to Andrew Myers

    “3) Even the latest You Gov poll gives a Tory majority of 12”

    What are you using to translate vote share to seats? Tories would have hung parliament using uniform swing, so you are using another method? The Electoral Calculus site maybe? Not sure if that is accurate. No one knows what the best method is right now.

    “5) Aside from the You Gov poll it is over a week since a 5 point outlier”

    What do you mean by this? Ipsos MORI just showed the Conservative lead at 5 points yesterday. Do you mean something else by a 5 point “outlier”?

    6) For Labour to even be close to forming a government they would need to be in the lead.

    No they don’t, they can be a minority government with fewer seats with outside support from the so-called “coalition of chaos.”

  18. Oh, sorry, I just saw that Andrew’s comment was a couple days ago, before the Ipsos MORI poll showing Conservatives 45%, Labour 40%, so that explains why he wrote only YouGov had shown a “5 point outlier.”

  19. What really surprises me looking at some of the
    elections odds is how long odds are
    on a Labour minority government – you can get up
    to 16/1.

    Perhaps I am confusing my definitions. My definition
    of a minority government is no party winning an
    overall majority, but securing the agreement of
    another party/parties, but without entering a formal coalition.

    So as an example a LAB minority government supported
    by the SNP.

    Can anyone confirm is my definition correct, and if so
    why the odds appear so low?. Many thanks in advance.

  20. I am from china?

    Do you think about percentage of voter turnout?

    I bet percentage of voter turnout between 60% and 65%
    and over 63.5%,is it like good bets?

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