A variety of new and newish polls today.

Starting with the newest of the regular polls, Kantar‘s latest topline figures are CON 43%(+1), LAB 33%(-1), LDEM 11%(+2), UKIP 4%(nc). Fieldwork was between Thursday and Tuesday. The changes are not significant in themselves, but unlike most recent polls don’t show continuing movement towards Labour. Note also that there is a methodological change – Kantar now estimate how people who say don’t know will vote based on upon their demographics and whether they find May or Corbyn more trustworthy. The impact of this chance is to decrease the Labour vote by a point (so without it, the Conservative lead would barely have changed at all). Tables are here.

We also saw a Panelbase poll today. This is not actually new – it is the poll that was in the field during the Manchester bombing last week, which Panelbase made the decision to withhold in the light of the tragedy. Topline figures are CON 48%, LAB 33%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 4%. Fieldwork was back between the 19th and 23rd of May. I’ve not included changes as there are significant methodological changes here – Panelbase have tightened their turnout filter to only include people who say 10/10, and they reweight their voting intention question so the age matches the age profile of people who voted in 2015. As with other companies whose turnout model is based upon replicating the age profile of 2015 voters this has a substantial effect. Panelbase say without it their poll would have shown the lead narrowing by 6 points from their previous poll (implying they would otherwise be showing an eight point Tory lead on their old method!). Panelbase tabs are here. In their comments Panelbase also say they will be releasing a new poll in the next day or two which again has the Tory lead falling.

Thirdly there was a new Ipsos MORI Scottish poll. Topline voting intention there is SNP 43%, CON 25%, LAB 25%, LDEM 5%. As ever, the SNP are in a clear first place, but down from the last election. Where it had appeared that the Scottish Conservatives were now the clear second placed party, this suggests that Labour may have recovered into joint-second place (that would also be very good news for the SNP – under FPTP the SNP benefit from being the dominant pro-independence party when the unionist parties are split three ways). Full details are here.

There was also a new SurveyMonkey poll for the Sun. This has topline figures of CON 44%(nc), LAB 38%(+2), LDEM 6%(nc), UKIP 4%(-1). Now, SurveyMonkey are not members of the British Polling Council and we don’t have any tables or further methodological detail to examine. However, they did poll at the 2015 election so have a record to judge. Their method is unusual – sample is gathered by randomly selecting people at the end of other surveys hosted on the surveymonkey platform. Back in 2015 they were the only company whose pre-election poll got the Conservative lead about right…but because they got both Labour and the Conservatives too low their average error across all parties was the highest (and the BPC inquiry found that their sample was still heavily skewed towards the politically interested… though they may have corrected that since then). In short, make of that what you will – it may be that their approach does do something that traditional polling does not… or it may be they just got lucky in 2015.


770 Responses to “New Kantar, Panelbase, MORI and Surveymonkey polls”

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  1. @Rich
    80%?? Is that the number YouGov are actually predicting will turnout or just the number that claim they will?

  2. @Steven,

    I heard Anthony use those ranges on newsnight and assumed YouGov is towards that 80%. I think ICM is 40%. Big big difference.

    Be interesting to see who is right.

  3. @MikeB

    “I am enjoying this site immensely, but what I am particularly looking forward to is the post mortem. Who’s tweaking of methodology will pay dividends this time? Six weeks ago the challenge was to predict the extent of a landslide. Now it’s déjà vu. My toes are curling.”

    Indeed!

    If 2015 and 2010 provide any insight then (2) things will happen around the early morning of June 9th.

    (1) those who predicted (broadly speaking) the result will be in UKPR non stop
    (2) those who didn’t will disappear for weeks if not months.

    (1) and (2) won’t occur around or just after the exit poll- as matters are still unclear for a good 1-3 hours.

    It is during this hiatus when things get the most nasty. In 2010 the wonderful @LabourEoin (in pre Green Benches photoshop diagrams epoch) threatened to sue me for defamation (!!) as I’d disagreed with his take on the campaign and GB performance as PM (he was a Brownite at that time).

    Prepare for fireworks next Thursday night. Or get the popcorn in and simply lurk…

  4. One thing appears to be pretty much for sure. Some Tory supporters are hoping that Labour is piling up useless votes in London (where there is only one ultra-marginal which is relatively easy to pick up, Croydon Central) and will fall back elsewhere. The Wales poll is the second consecutive one in the principality to show a very small swing to Labour, and is unlikely to be a fluke. There is still a possibility of major regional variation, but I find Labour’s goodish figures in Wales instructive since it was one of the parts of the UK where the Tories were most optimistic of all.
    I still think that Labour may well lose some very marginal seats in some parts of England outside London, but not many now even if I try to put my most pessimistic hat on. Any losses are likely to be balanced to some extent by some gains, from Conservative & also from Nick Clegg. Question is, how many of each. Sure some of you will continue to predict a landslide, but it’s not what the average of the polls says at all. Not at the moment.

  5. I have spoken to a Tory candidate today. Asked him outright if they were worried.. no was the firm reply. According to their internal polls they are doing best where they are trying to do best.. and yougov have lost the plot as he put it. Genuinely didn’t seem worried at all. He did concede labour will pile up votes on parts of London, Manchester ,Liverpool .. places like that but in the main it’s just making safe seats even safer and not where the tories are competing. Just his view but seemed genuine to me.

  6. Daniel

    One person has suggested that, otherwise we are excited but still sceptical

  7. WRT the postmortem, polls have been changing a lot over the past couple of weeks – the general assumption is that this is because people’s opinions have been changing.

    Therefore, the only polls that can be considered “wrong” are those from the final week of the campaign – i.e., from now – as there isn’t room for so much change of opinion at this point.

  8. @ Rich

    Wouldn’t bother trying to get any point across, it will just be shouted down.

    We will find out in a few days anyway, this site will then return to normal and we will be reading why it all went wrong for the loser.

    Not that it matters but I am sticking with my 399 seats for the Tories and sub 200 for Labour.

  9. SEA CHANGE @ POLLTROLL

    I doubt that more than a very few posting here believe that Lab can reach an overall majority next week.

    You should also recognise that in a hung parliament Con are likely to be the billy nomates party with the possible exception of the DUP.

    In such a situation, which is now a real possibility, Lab should be able to get C&S agreements from the SNP and others.

  10. @Blue bob,

    Yes for now I am going to tend to my newly dug out and installed garden pond to act as a conservation area for all the amphibians at the bottom of my garden. Loads of frogs and toads, the odd common/smooth newt, but if only I could attract the elusive great crested…

  11. Amongst all the disagreements on here, might there be a consensus that the laugh out loud outcome of the election would be round about what we have now?

  12. The inherent problem with any model is that the factors underpinning your assumptions can change. The issue for the pollsters here is the assumptions behind the actual electorate we will see turn up on the 8th June. The youth vote may or may not turn up, it may or may not be in sufficient numbers in marginal to make a difference. Trad older Tories may abstain in large numbers due to May’s Social Care policies – this may or may not happen only in seats where the Tories have large majorities anyway.

    What I do know is that the excitement seen on this site is not mirrored in society at large, and perhaps its a reflection of how modern elections are run going about my general business it does not feel like it used to back in the day.

    The Tories seem to be sticking to their game plan – so perhaps their own polling is giving them cause to be confident. Labour are throwing everything but the kitchen sink into the game. The LD’s are praying they benefit from anti-Tory tactical voting and UKIP look like they are in their last days.

  13. @Rich
    I’ve just read the article that Anthony wrote and he says;

    “After we had weighted our sample, taken account of how likely people say they are to vote, and weighted down the answers of those people who didn’t vote last time, we were left with a sample that implies turnout of 51% among people under 25 and 75% among people aged 65+; a turnout gap of 24 points between young and old.”

    So the 80% must be pre-weighting.

  14. I think I have seen only one serious poster on here, maybe two, suggesting JC might get a majority. No one else thinks it is likely. Even a hung parliament is only just coming into view (YouGov poll aside).

  15. @Mushypea
    If I was the “maybe two” I can assure you that isn’t my prediction. I was just asking if anyone knew how many votes/seats he would actually need to become PM. I wasn’t saying I thought it would happen.

  16. @Rich

    The 3% gap You Gov poll is based on 51% of under 25s voting and 75% of 65+ according to AW himself

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/06/01/pollsters-experimental-election/

  17. @Daniel

    “I haven’t seen a single agressive partizan post from the right.”

    If you’re not noticing right wing posts it’s because you are all spending your time complaining about the balance of opinion instead of contributing. One third of the posts on the page I am looking at right now are posts from just a small handful of out-and-out right-wingers, and maybe another by people whose opinions aren’t clear.

    Just a selection of the non-aggressive posts by right-wingers in the past hour:

    “The left are far more politically active because they always have something to shout about. Tories just go quietly about their business getting on with things.”

    “Wow, this place has turned into a offshoot of Momentum”

    “Just watched the Corbyn press conference. It could have been straight from the student union. The crowd reminded me a bit of the muppet show when they cheer and the entire body, arms and legs are waving in the air.”

    “I haven’t been able to keep up with the deluge of propaganda, but this caught my attention as particularly ridiculously unsubstantiated.”

    “Believe it or not I am trying to keep out of any partisan posts and be balanced. It’s difficult as today has been a pretty strong day of left angled posts. lol!”

  18. @ Rich

    We have palmate newts now occupying our new pond, we brought some tadpoles down from West Yorkshire but no sign of success with them yet. We’re having a lot of trouble with masses of blanketweed choking other plants, we keep pulling armfuls out and we’ve treated as well. Any ideas?

  19. Robin, thanks for those quotes, it need to be done i think.

    As for frothy predictions, I am a long time supporter of the lab leader and my only guess at the result is for lab largest party, not om.

  20. @PROSPERO

    The true LOL result would be one seat less and the lost seat would be May’s.

  21. Alexw

    Think TMs maj is near the 30000 mark or are yougov predicting that as a labour gain too….

  22. As far as I can tell only 1 (one) poster has claimed LAB would get a majority.

    I am of the view that this is currently in the realms of complete fantasy.

    However, what is completely undeniable, is that CON need to be 8-9% ahead nationally to be sure of ANY gains on a uniform swing in England.

    In the majority of polls, they are not. This indicates that is it entirely possible that they will not improve on the 2015 GE seat numbers.

    It is not partisan or left-wing to say we are entering hung parliament territory. It is a statement of the bleeding obvious to anyone who remotely understands polling.

  23. @wb “by the way change the US to UK English spellcheck, its actually partisan.”

    Pedant point. Its not to do with US dictionary. Partizan is a more archaic version of spelling it – and how it is spelt in Italy and eastern europe (i.e Patizan Belgrade).
    I prefer Partizan cos i am in a band called Radio Partizan and z’s look cooler.

  24. The election’s just one week away now. I’m trying to decide upon my prediction. I still expect Tories over 350 given the solid 40%+ VI, but I think I’ll wait until tonight’s polls (if there are any) before having another stab at it.

  25. @MARKW

    Don’t forget Jeremy Hunt’s seat… any polling on the NHS candidate running against him?

  26. @PHIL

    Yes I know its extremely extremely extremely unlikely. Just pointing out the most humorous potential result come voting night.

  27. Anecdote alert!

    Both my parents – lifetime Conservative voters – have just sent off their postal votes.

    Both, for the first time in their life, have voted for Labour: this off the back of:

    – Mutual disdain for Theresa May and a UKIP-filled Conservative Party;
    – Admiration, on at least one side, for Jeremy Corbyn;
    – Dislike of the local Conservative candidate (and I assume ambivalence towards the Labour candidate).
    – Brexit. Not to remain, but to punish the Conservative Party for calling the referendum in the first place.

    I’m not saying this will be commonplace, but I do think there are plenty of dissatisfied traditional Conservative voters out there. Will they vote on election day?

  28. Carfrew
    “Am most interested to see how this Shield Wall thing holds up, or whether it’s more of an ego defence wall kinda thing.
    A lot hinges on it, including Robert’s return!!

    Carfrew you are such a wag. You have this knack of puncturing some of our more pompous postings, in a humorous way.
    Ps I am not the only one who can be guilty of pompous posts on occasions. Plenty of others can wear the hat too.

    But I am genuinely worried, as someone posted earlier, the result will be between hung and 100 majority. And if it’s hung there will be someone hanged and it won’t be JC.

  29. @Bantams,

    Yep forgot about that, 3 newt species with palmates.

    So, I have never had problems with small garden ponds and tend to go for the following; (but need to know size of yours)

    – small amount of plant/weed oxgygenaters in the pool underwater.
    – marginal plants on the shallows and steps.
    – 1-2 water lilies per square meter. My current pond is small so one main water Lilly then one Pygmy Lilly (pygmaea rubra) in the shallows.
    – small solar pump (£30). More oxygenation.
    – small amount of water snails to eat the algea, but keep them under control.

    Hope this helps.

  30. We really need polling in the Midlands marginals. Its been scant in this election.
    Anyway I am sticking with my forecast of a Con maj of around 50 based upon a split in the vote share of Con 43% and Lab 35%.

  31. As we are heading towards the business end of the campaign, all we know for sure is that the gap between Lab and Con seems to be narrowing, and hasn’t steadied yet.

    The main question surely is whether this direction of travel will continue? Because, if it does, there appears to be no outcome that would be favourable to the Cons. In fact it’s unlikely that there could be an outcome favourable to either side, as a minority Labour govnt would struggle to enact its relatively radical manifesto promises, and a minority Cov govnt would be damaged beyond repair.

    Personally, I’m loving this campaign. Particularly as I have no overall majority (at odds of 14-1), Labour at over 200 seats, Con under 387 seats and no Con majority or a Con majority of less than 100 with William Hill.

    My worry is that, having collected my winnings, the country will be in a pretty static situation, with the Brexit clock ticking.

  32. Trying to be non partisan for once.. isn’t this going to come down to the don’t knows who make their minds up on the day as they enter the polling booth. Some of these seats must be so tight that surely it will come down to that in a lot of cases. Do we know how many do decide on the day usAlly and how many change their minds on the day from what they may. Have previously said they would do ? If those numbers are of any size at all, predictions will be impossible in an election like this one. One of the earlier posts talked about pensioners abstaining this time and not voting Tory. I can’t see that when it comes to the crunch. With the polls like this they will surely realise abstention may give them Corbyn plus the snp and however fed up they are with some of the manifesto they surely will not want that if they are life long conservatives. If anything this poll disagreement might prompt more to return their postal votes rather than take the risk of not voting.

  33. @ DRMIBBLES

    Just to play devils advocate. If in 2015 the result was

    CON 37
    LAB 30

    And in 2017 it is

    CON 45
    LAB 38

    Both are 7% leads, but could the later result in a different outcome in terms of seats?

  34. @ROBERT

    I thought knives in the back was the usual tory method? Come on you’re supposed to be traditionalists!!

  35. Prospero,

    Repeat of 2015 results would indeed be amusing, if only for the baffled responses from the parties, factions and pundits. No one could claim a victory the way Cameron did because he outperformed expectations at the time. No one would have momentum (with a small m) on their side, everyone would have to eat humble pie. There would be much talk of how many doctors/teachers/police could have been paid for with the £143 million that a general election costs.

    Even funnier might be a hung parliament where the only mathematically possible coalition is between Leavers and Remainers.

  36. I just went in to moderation for commenting on the name of the current No1. Its political correctness gone mad.

  37. Lols, it is a trigger word on the bad list.

  38. Barbazenzero

    The video stream (May and Crick) I watched was on Sky (checked my browser history).. There is a clip on the Independent (…), of the first half, but not the follow up on the downside.

  39. I think this election result will be almost exactly the same as that predicted in 2015 (but didn’t happen).

    I’m going for approx:
    Cons: 297
    Labour: 269
    Liberals: 15

    Labour to be in government, making no deals but putting their manifesto into effect. The other parties accepting whatever they do for the first year or so – and then making trouble after that.

  40. @MarkW

    I better not post the lyrics then – I’d get barred

    Must say Gryme aint my bag, but [snip]

  41. If only there were weekend polls on alternative Conservative leaders. The Theresa May pitch that only two people can be Prime Minister in a few weeks time (i.e. Corbyn or her) is incorrect.
    The Conservatives can remove a sitting Prime Minister and Party leader even with a 100 majority. It takes 15% of Conservative MPs to write to Chief Whip calling for Vote of No Confidence. this secret ballot can take place 48 hours later.
    Margaret Thatcher was challenged in 1989 and held on. She was defeated in 1990 even with a 100 seat majority.
    John Major pre-empted an Autumn challenge by resigning and calling for a vote of confidence in a leadership contest in 1995.
    David Cameron resigned on June 24 because he expected a vote of confidence which he might lose.
    IDS was removed in 2003 without being allowed to fight a General Election.
    Theresa May could win and still be gone against her will within 7 days.

  42. Oh, Gryme is it, I quite liked it. Once.

  43. @ edge of seat

    Not to mention another million or two she could have saved by having the GE at the same as the recent local polls which was rumoured to be the case amongst election offices in local authorities, instead of having her expensive finger in the air

  44. From tomorrow I will be holding each June poll to account on June 9.

  45. Robin – “So Lab is up by around the same as (or less than) their improvement in the naitonal polls. Rather indicating that suggestions that Labour are stacking up votes in their heartlands are wide of the mark.”

    Actually no.

    If you gain in a region you already dominate, then it’s very hard to translate those extra votes into extra seats.

    For example, Lab is 9% up in Wales compared to how it did in the 2015 general election. Putting the current welsh poll into the electoral calculator gains them 2 seats.

    But a similar increase for the Cons in Scotland nabs them 5 seats, because they are starting from a low base.

  46. New thread

  47. @ Lazlo, BBZ

    I thought that the most worrying sign for TM wasn’t Crick’s question itself, but the way it is being reported. Yes this is from the Guardian, but it isn’t an isolated example and it rings true. Yesterday we had Laura Kuenssberg (of all people) getting tetchy with TM unwillingness to move beyond slogans, and Evan Davies praising Amber Rudd by mocking TM. Turning round a struggling campaign with the press against you is a lot harder.

    This is the comment from the Guardian’s live feed that caught my eye.

    ———————

    May’s Q&A – Summary

    Journalists covering Theresa May’s campaign are getting frustrated at her refusal to answer questions and the highlight of the Q&A came when Channel 4 News’ Michael Crick delivered a mini-diatribe on their behalf. Addressing May, he asked her:

    ‘Isn’t the reason that you are doing so badly that whenever people ask you about policy, all they get are cliches and platitudes, and we’ve seen the same today. People think there is nothing there. Now, let’s get something straight, shall we? You mentioned £8bn for the health service. You mentioned managing money. Where is the £8bn coming from?’

  48. @Candy

    Try reading what I wrote again. Then what you wrote. Then please explain what the latter had to do with the former.

  49. Well I wouldn’t take any lectures from Crick.

  50. No she will ignore him and I don’t blame her. Left wing loser. She should have called him a pompous p£at and see how he dealt with it.

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