A variety of new and newish polls today.

Starting with the newest of the regular polls, Kantar‘s latest topline figures are CON 43%(+1), LAB 33%(-1), LDEM 11%(+2), UKIP 4%(nc). Fieldwork was between Thursday and Tuesday. The changes are not significant in themselves, but unlike most recent polls don’t show continuing movement towards Labour. Note also that there is a methodological change – Kantar now estimate how people who say don’t know will vote based on upon their demographics and whether they find May or Corbyn more trustworthy. The impact of this chance is to decrease the Labour vote by a point (so without it, the Conservative lead would barely have changed at all). Tables are here.

We also saw a Panelbase poll today. This is not actually new – it is the poll that was in the field during the Manchester bombing last week, which Panelbase made the decision to withhold in the light of the tragedy. Topline figures are CON 48%, LAB 33%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 4%. Fieldwork was back between the 19th and 23rd of May. I’ve not included changes as there are significant methodological changes here – Panelbase have tightened their turnout filter to only include people who say 10/10, and they reweight their voting intention question so the age matches the age profile of people who voted in 2015. As with other companies whose turnout model is based upon replicating the age profile of 2015 voters this has a substantial effect. Panelbase say without it their poll would have shown the lead narrowing by 6 points from their previous poll (implying they would otherwise be showing an eight point Tory lead on their old method!). Panelbase tabs are here. In their comments Panelbase also say they will be releasing a new poll in the next day or two which again has the Tory lead falling.

Thirdly there was a new Ipsos MORI Scottish poll. Topline voting intention there is SNP 43%, CON 25%, LAB 25%, LDEM 5%. As ever, the SNP are in a clear first place, but down from the last election. Where it had appeared that the Scottish Conservatives were now the clear second placed party, this suggests that Labour may have recovered into joint-second place (that would also be very good news for the SNP – under FPTP the SNP benefit from being the dominant pro-independence party when the unionist parties are split three ways). Full details are here.

There was also a new SurveyMonkey poll for the Sun. This has topline figures of CON 44%(nc), LAB 38%(+2), LDEM 6%(nc), UKIP 4%(-1). Now, SurveyMonkey are not members of the British Polling Council and we don’t have any tables or further methodological detail to examine. However, they did poll at the 2015 election so have a record to judge. Their method is unusual – sample is gathered by randomly selecting people at the end of other surveys hosted on the surveymonkey platform. Back in 2015 they were the only company whose pre-election poll got the Conservative lead about right…but because they got both Labour and the Conservatives too low their average error across all parties was the highest (and the BPC inquiry found that their sample was still heavily skewed towards the politically interested… though they may have corrected that since then). In short, make of that what you will – it may be that their approach does do something that traditional polling does not… or it may be they just got lucky in 2015.


770 Responses to “New Kantar, Panelbase, MORI and Surveymonkey polls”

1 12 13 14 15 16
  1. Not exactly scientific, but the BBC comments section on the recent political stories seem to show a very different story to the recent narrowing of the polls.

  2. ROB SHEFFIELD

    Kensington voted heavily for remain. The YG model accounts for this.

    I’d suggest that, while it isn’t truly marginal, it will be closer than anyone expects.

  3. Am I the only one who thinks these tight polls don’t pass the common sense test?

    We are not in a recession, the Prime Minister is relatively popular, the opposition leader is relatively unpopular, elderly people are reliable voters, young people are not, there was a substantial swing towards the governing party in the local elections not a month ago, a large percentage of the nearly 4 million UKIP votes from 2015 will likely go to the Conservatives, and no polls are showing some sort of Lib Dem collapse in Labour’s favour. (Yes, I am aware of the irony of using polling evidence to back up by claim that polling is faulty).

    In short, where are these new Labour voters coming from? The Greens? I haven’t heard Corbyn talking about the environment lately. Who is this person who voted for David Cameron two years ago but who now thinks Jeremy Corbyn is the way to go? I’d like to meet him or her. Where are all these youngsters with posters of Jeremy Corbyn on their parents’ bedroom walls?[snip]

  4. Former Labour MP, Eric Joyce has been looking at the Labour campaign in Edinburgh South. This is Ian Murray’s seat, the sole Labour representative in Scotland.

    A person called Mr Roden is the campaign director for SLab. He is also ex Daily Mail. Joyce has his suspicions about Roden.

    http://www.ericjoyce.co.uk/2017/06/scottish-labours-enemy-within/

  5. It now seems like labour really believe they can win, they are a Tory party in meltdown and think the polls will continue to move their way. Do the Tories have time to stop the rot and turn this around?

  6. @PORROHMAN

    Good question regarding a government of national unity. With Brexit around 20 months away already, negotiation time is dwindling. The problem is that the original brexit referendum was framed so vaguely, that people really don’t know what it means (despite TMs vacuous statements about Brexit meaning Brexit), and so picking parties on that basis is hard. I think that it will be politically impossible after this election, whatever the result. If a hung parliament comes, I would expect another election before March 2019… Oh Theresa, why couldn’t you have just stayed strong and stable?!

  7. Rob: “If you’re referring to a new Tory leader, who would they pick?”

    David Davis would certainly be up for it…

  8. PHILOTES

    ” I don’t understand why people are so sure of a Conservative majority based on recent polls.

    In 2015 CON were 7% ahead of LAB. So they need to be >7% to increase their majority. <7% lead suggests hung parliament."

    Welcome to my world. I have tried explaining this so many times ;)

    All signs are we are heading for a possible – perhaps even probable – hung parliament unless there is a shift back to CON.

  9. @Rob

    He can get away with it because Soft Brexit isn’t Brexit at all! If we remain in the Single Market then you must accept Freedom of Movement, which is the biggest reason we voted to leave!

    Strictly speaking the main issue for Brexit was supposed to be ‘sovereignty’. You can say if you like that that means ‘ control of our borders’ and hence comes down to ‘we don’t so much immigration and we are determined to stop it’. However, most people did not choose to be blunt and prefered to say things like ‘we want our country back’.

    In practice as I see it the only choice is between ‘no deal’ and ‘interim deal’ with as much sovereignty as we can get or buy and then a long process of negotiation while we try to find accommodations and reorient ourselves to the brave new world of unfettered international trade.

    I suspect that you would see the second option as not Brexit at all. More importantly irrespective of what you think, I suspect that a lot of the British people think this and UKIP clearly do.

    And from my point of view the danger is not that a majority of the British people want ‘no deal’ but that no deal is what we get. And that is because as AlexW has said, it’s incredibly difficult for people to get down to discussing what the realistic options are as opposed to what they would like in a real world.

  10. Welsh Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 46% (+2)
    CON: 35% (+1)
    PC: 8% (-1)
    LDEM: 5% (-1)
    UKIP: 5% (-)

    (via @YouGov)

  11. Daniel, yes, bbc comments as a polling proxy is just rubbish, and as pointed out earlier they are seen as reactionary and rightist by many.

  12. Both Tories and Labour up a little in Wales, at the expense of all other parties.

  13. Wow, this place has turned into a offshoot of Momentum

    I foresee many tears on June 9th

  14. Welsh poll

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/870294063215464448

    Welsh Westminster voting intention: LAB: 46% (+2) CON: 35% (+1) PC: 8% (-1) LDEM: 5% (-1) UKIP: 5% (-) (via @YouGov)

  15. JC’s pitch for soft Brexiteers and for Remainers is clever.

  16. @MIKE N

    And now Corbyn the clever chap (his top notch team really) is sticking his oar in saying no deal is a bad deal, which reduces May’s room to be wooly and make meaningless soundbites on the issue. She’ll either have to go further in on no deal and risk more alienation of soft leave or leave his attacks unchallenged. I expect this is what we will see from team Corbyn for the next two days. Boxing May in on brexit and giving him further big MO.

  17. “A lot of internal opposition to Corbyn came from the fact he was a bonafide vote-loser (which was, at the time, a very reasonable belief).”

    ——–

    Well, it wasn’t necessarily fair or rational to believe this.

    It was fair and rational to consider it a POSSIBILITY.

    But from a scientific perspective, you have to account for all the variables before settling on it. Including the possibility Corbyn might do ok if not held back by the party for a change, or during a GE when he can use his campaigning skills and the policies might get a better airing in the media.

    Also, the possibility Brexit might galvanise the youth etc.

    In other words, an argument has to take into account the disconfirming before one settles on it.

  18. @ Carfrew

    Thanks :-)

  19. @POLLTROLL

    Labour are on 232 seats now.

    They would need to win around 100 more seats to get a majority that could withstand a few rebels at most.

    To achieve that Tory VI would need to be around 35% and Labour around 45%.

    It seems Rudyard and others fail to understand the scale of the win needed by Labour to get a majority.

  20. Just for reference, here is the result of the 2015 Gen election in Wales:

    Lab 36.9% 25 seats

    Con 27.2% 11 seats

    UKIP 13.6% 0 seats

    Plaid 12.1% 3 seats

    LibDems 6.5% 1 seat

    Green 2.6% 0 seats

    So is Lab is sharply up in Wales according to the latest poll – stacking up votes in their safe seats?

  21. Why the poll volatility ?
    I think the Conservative brand could have won this big. They could have plundered all the Ukip vote. Ukip basically formed by a breakaway part of the Tory Right after Margaret Thatcher was politically asassinated in late 1990. The name changed but this is where Ukip emerged.
    However, the Conservative brand has not contested this election. This has been a brand new party The Theresatives which is a kind of New Conservatives akin to New Labour. All the old tried and trusted Conservative brand faces and all the highly recognisable Conservative party principles were erased from history a bit like Blair ditched Clause 4.
    However, unlike Blair and New Labour this was not done publically but stealthily.
    Initially this policy free (except for Brexit) Theresative party seemed to have wide appeal but as I flagged up five weeks ago it was only inch deep surface commitment. It was bland. People could project all their hopes on to it.
    The local elections were a triumph on the back of an anti-EU speech outside Downing Street.
    But then suddenly the Theresative policies were announced all at once. These shocked the traditional Conservative base and the flirty floating voters.
    The lack of depth of the Theresative appeal was exposed.
    The frontwoman for the brand was not able to articulate the policies.
    The Theresatives dared not field the old guard 1980s and 90s Tory grandees, the big Cabinet beasts, the stars of Vote Leave, the Conservative MPs or council leaders. This would destroy the Theresative party and its ownership of the 2017 election triumph.
    Moreover, most were aghast and confused by the Theresative manifesto which seemed gleefully anti-Conservative.
    The Theresatives could not field the two people who understood and believed in the Theresative policies and goals. These were unelected advisors.
    The advisors just could not brief the frontwoman well enough to cope with anthing other than delivering a speech. A debate, Q and A, were just too much.
    The poll lead started so strong and Corbyn was so very weak (and all his strong seasoned media performers refused to support him in the campaign).
    Surely they could get to the election victory before the game was up.
    But now the Theresatives have been found out even by an increasingly hostile media who scent blood.
    The obvious move for the Theresatives is change the frontwoman but they can not without permission of Conservative MPs.
    The Conservative MPs and activists want the Conservative brand and policies back immediately and Theresativism ended.
    If Corbyn takes a poll lead this weekend, then can the Conservatives get Theresa May to resign and the 2017 manifesto be jettisoned in favour of the 2015 policies which at least got 37% and can now get the 7% of Ukip to make it 44% ?
    Meanwhile Jeremy Corbyn refuses to ditch CND, pacifism and borders to seal the deal with traditional Labour voters. He shows a lot of leg with promises to increase police by 10 000, renationalise railways, deal with energy companies, protect pensions and social care, give teachers smaller classes and more pay, pay nurses more and get people a GP quicker. He goes up and down with people who think about voting for him.
    Young voters have things called exams, 21st birthday parties, Britains Got Talent, but they are attracted by free college courses rather than £60 k debt. If only they could vote on smartphone or laptop as with Britains Got Talent and I’m a Celebrity Get Me Out of Here.
    So voter intention is volatile. It is moving like a paper in the wind.

  22. I am enjoying this site immensely, but what I am particularly looking forward to is the post mortem. Who’s tweaking of methodology will pay dividends this time? Six weeks ago the challenge was to predict the extent of a landslide. Now it’s déjà vu. My toes are curling.

  23. I always thought it was absurd to assume JC was a vote loser. The evidence was thin and hyped.

  24. @Carfrew
    “an argument has to take into account the disconfirming before one settles on it.”

    That neatly links to a question I have about the changes ICM have made to their methodology. Is it the case that no matter how respondents reply the changes will always cause a shift to the Conservatives? If so, it seems to be making a prediction that cannot be disconfirmed, which makes me very suspicious of it.

  25. @bluebob

    ………………which is why online polling will always be biased against the tory vote.

    The left are far more politically active because they always have something to shout about. Tories just go quietly about their business getting on with things.

    I expect many tears on 9th June and the Blairites magically rediscovering their voice….

  26. Mr Wells makes the poll volatility clearer
    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/06/01/pollsters-experimental-election/

    Thanks AW

  27. @TRIGGUY

    Labour are already promising electoral reform via a constitution convention (something I heartily approve of), so there’s no point in Farron asking for something he is already going to get.

  28. Sea Change

    I am informed that in a hung parliament scenario, Jeremy would enlist the help of the Scottish Nationalists for the major manifesto projects in return for an immediate independence referendum north of the border.

    He particularly wants to drive forward the public ownership platform – as mentioned by my goodself earlier – with Royal Mail first on the list.

    The thinking is that Mrs May would resign and the Conservatives would be in chaos, so a progressive alliance would prosper.

  29. So Labour vote share up sharply in London and Wales, where they already hold majority of seats. I expect you would see exactly the same in Manchester/Liverpool.

    GB picture says Tories ahead anywhere between 3-12%. This would indicate a huge win for Tories outside of traditional Labour strongholds would it not?

    If the midlands and north fall to the Tories we’re in 80-100 seat majority territory.

  30. BANTAMS @ BZ

    He asked the question to which May gave the response to which LASZLO referred.

    Where should I look to translate k**b into English?

  31. What we’ve learnt so far today:

    Lab is up 6% in London compared to it’s general election result in 2015, and Cons are down 2%.

    In Wales, Lab is up 9% compared to general election result in 2015 and Cons are up 8%

  32. One of the most amusing things on this site is the almost total lack of self awareness displayed by many on the right.

  33. There are clearly more CON voters on this site than Lab voters, and confused I don’t know what you’re talking about there are many, many loud CON voters shouting about Brexit and immigration and the fact that Corbyn is one thing or another.

  34. Short marking break.

    Some hot-off-the-press light reading

    https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/labours-reliance-on-non-voters-9f88c516310a

    “So who’s right?

    I think the true Conservative lead probably lies in between these figures, but closer to ICM’s figures than YouGov’s figures. I’ve got three reasons for thinking this.

    The first reason is a boring one: in the absence of any good reason to prefer one pollster over another, we should assign all their figures equal probability. I think I have some reasons for preferring ICM’s figures, but they’re not conclusive, and so there’s a very mealy-mouthed part of me that assumes the true figure lies somewhere in between.

    The second reason is systemic: I think that the polling industry as a whole will over-estimate Labour (and under-estimate the Conservatives) to the same extent that it historically has (see the 2015 Polling Inquiry report, ch. 4).

    This means that I think the average Conservative lead in the polls is an under-estimate of the eventual Conservative lead on the day. If the average Conservative lead in the polls is equidistant between YouGov and ICM, I tilt towards ICM.

    The third reason, though, is particular to those polls which show Labour within touching distance. Looking at these polls, support for Labour seems to rely to a large extent on those who either did not vote in 2015, or voted for a minor party. Since I am skeptical that many of those who did not vote in 2015 will vote now, I am skeptical of any figure which relies heavily on these people.”

  35. @Rudyard,

    A ‘progressive’ alliance as you put it, couldn’t possibly prosper as you say based on the numbers even from YouGovs 3% gap poll. They would do well to have a majority of 1-5. It’s another election as it would be near impossible to get anything through.

  36. However if you prefer a more Machiavellian view, Con sources are suggesting that at the time TM called the GM their internal polling was showing a 50 seat maj – absolute tosh – she would have only gone for it on an 80 seat minimum suggesting that it is now a case of expectation management and their polling is showing something around 60 seat maj which can then be claimed as a successful campaign

  37. @DANIEL

    I noticed that on facebook too, yesterday. I thought I was on a Conservative page story and then realised it was BBC. There were a lot of anti-Corbyn comments.

    Strange you mentioned it too regarding BBC.

  38. Rudyard, it looked to me as if the progressive alliance was assimilating during the leaders debate.

  39. “Lab is up 6% in London compared to it’s general election result in 2015, and Cons are down 2%.
    In Wales, Lab is up 9% compared to general election result in 2015 and Cons are up 8%”

    …but the YouGov panel ‘nowcast’ ?!

  40. *GE not GM

  41. DANIEL

    No need to speculate that LAB are crashing and burning in the North and Midlands – we have polls for that. An aggregate of cross-breaks shows they are performing just fine.

    CON have picked up useless votes in Scotland and Wales, which at least equal the number of votes LAB has picked up in London and Wales.

    CON need to be about 8-9% ahead nationally to win seats from LAB in Midlands/North.

  42. @Prospero,

    Yes he was on newsnight last night and explained it. Under 24 turnout in different pollster models ranges from 40% to I think 80% in YouGov. That’s the main difference in these numbers.

  43. “I always thought it was absurd to assume JC was a vote loser. The evidence was thin and hyped.”

    Eighteen months of polling data, during which IIRC there were three Labour leads in rogue polls and the rolling average was never in hung parliament territory, not even when the Conservatives were ripping each other to bits during the referendum.

    The evidence was there. It turned out to be misleading, but it existed and was bloody convincing. If young earth creationism were somehow revealed to be true that wouldn’t have retroactively made Richard Dawkins an idiot for being wrong, nor the “God just put the fossils there to test you” guys geniuses for being right.

  44. @Candy

    “Lab is up 6% in London compared to it’s general election result in 2015, and Cons are down 2%.”

    So Lab is up by around the same as (or less than) their improvement in the naitonal polls. Rather indicating that suggestions that Labour are stacking up votes in their heartlands are wide of the mark.

  45. I do think the Tories would be in a much better position now had Boris not failed in his attempt to pick up the ball when it came loose at the back of the scrum. He’d be able to fight Corbyn much more effectively in the battle of personalities, and he benefits from the same kind of teflon unflappability which May really seems to struggle with. I think the Conservatives probably would have produced a manifesto under him that seemed a lot less like a dose of tough medicine from matron as well.

    Still, once the results come in it seems likely that the Tories won’t be enjoying anything like the majority they were hoping for when they launched this election. As a party they’ve always been nothing if not ruthless, perhaps he’ll be a little less butterfingers next time around.

  46. MIKE N
    “Might there be some in her party who would prefer there not to be a large Tory majority?”
    There might, but while a landslide might crush Labour altogether, a majority of 30-40 is plenty for passing legislation to run the country while small enough to keep any Tory rebels in line.

  47. @Rich

    Lol, they’re not all saying the polls show Labour will get elected. They are just speculating about various issues and difficulties for Labour IF polls improved further. How would they deal with SNP etc.

  48. Let me put this really simply for those not getting it.

    CON are +8% in Wales
    CON are +10% in Scotland – maybe will gain 3 seats

    LAB are +6% in London – maybe will gain 3 seats
    LAB are +9% in Wales – maybe will gain a few seats

    So you see. Both parties are piling up equal number of seats outside England. But LAB probably gain more from it.

  49. @DRIMBLES

    I think you’ll find that CON just need to be 1 vote higher than LAB in those constituencies to win them. National vote share means nothing in GB elections.

  50. The evidence was thin and hyped to the point where a faulty narrative gained traction, abetted by the media.

    The polls reflected this but there were other indicators that clearly supported an alternative possibility but this was less discussed.

1 12 13 14 15 16