A variety of new and newish polls today.

Starting with the newest of the regular polls, Kantar‘s latest topline figures are CON 43%(+1), LAB 33%(-1), LDEM 11%(+2), UKIP 4%(nc). Fieldwork was between Thursday and Tuesday. The changes are not significant in themselves, but unlike most recent polls don’t show continuing movement towards Labour. Note also that there is a methodological change – Kantar now estimate how people who say don’t know will vote based on upon their demographics and whether they find May or Corbyn more trustworthy. The impact of this chance is to decrease the Labour vote by a point (so without it, the Conservative lead would barely have changed at all). Tables are here.

We also saw a Panelbase poll today. This is not actually new – it is the poll that was in the field during the Manchester bombing last week, which Panelbase made the decision to withhold in the light of the tragedy. Topline figures are CON 48%, LAB 33%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 4%. Fieldwork was back between the 19th and 23rd of May. I’ve not included changes as there are significant methodological changes here – Panelbase have tightened their turnout filter to only include people who say 10/10, and they reweight their voting intention question so the age matches the age profile of people who voted in 2015. As with other companies whose turnout model is based upon replicating the age profile of 2015 voters this has a substantial effect. Panelbase say without it their poll would have shown the lead narrowing by 6 points from their previous poll (implying they would otherwise be showing an eight point Tory lead on their old method!). Panelbase tabs are here. In their comments Panelbase also say they will be releasing a new poll in the next day or two which again has the Tory lead falling.

Thirdly there was a new Ipsos MORI Scottish poll. Topline voting intention there is SNP 43%, CON 25%, LAB 25%, LDEM 5%. As ever, the SNP are in a clear first place, but down from the last election. Where it had appeared that the Scottish Conservatives were now the clear second placed party, this suggests that Labour may have recovered into joint-second place (that would also be very good news for the SNP – under FPTP the SNP benefit from being the dominant pro-independence party when the unionist parties are split three ways). Full details are here.

There was also a new SurveyMonkey poll for the Sun. This has topline figures of CON 44%(nc), LAB 38%(+2), LDEM 6%(nc), UKIP 4%(-1). Now, SurveyMonkey are not members of the British Polling Council and we don’t have any tables or further methodological detail to examine. However, they did poll at the 2015 election so have a record to judge. Their method is unusual – sample is gathered by randomly selecting people at the end of other surveys hosted on the surveymonkey platform. Back in 2015 they were the only company whose pre-election poll got the Conservative lead about right…but because they got both Labour and the Conservatives too low their average error across all parties was the highest (and the BPC inquiry found that their sample was still heavily skewed towards the politically interested… though they may have corrected that since then). In short, make of that what you will – it may be that their approach does do something that traditional polling does not… or it may be they just got lucky in 2015.


770 Responses to “New Kantar, Panelbase, MORI and Surveymonkey polls”

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  1. @Danny:

    “I thing May took that walk on the moors and decided she was not willing to push through hard brexit against the wishes of the British people. So she decided to test it. All the rest is window dressing.”

    Hard Brexit/soft Brexit is just a rhetorically appealing gloss put around by those aching for No Brexit. Soft Brexit is taken to mean EEA membership, which Remainers presented in the referendum campaign as pointless Brexit.

    Anything else exists on a continuum of better or worse deals, closer or more distant relationship.

    Labour claims to want to end Freedom of Movement. The EU’s position is that this makes them no different from TM. So either Labour is going to throw in its hand, or it is also going for a Hard Brexit, whatever that means.

  2. I find the comments about MOE amusing when we are being continually told that there are two distinct approaches to demographic weighting going on in reponse to 2015. Separating the groups to work out the averages would be a better solution (and make the two separate probabilities stronger independently), and then just accept that there is no way of knowing which correction will prove correct.

    The pollsters themselves are the ones who should know best which correction is likely to work. My hunch is that YouGov polls are more likely to be on the right side given their late switch, the resources they have poured into the MRP, and the qualitative data they must be obtaining. That said, the other pollsters must also be thinking the same thing and Panelbases switch the other way suggests the possibility that they have evidence to think that the younger demographics are less honest about their willingness to vote…

    Either way it is fascinating, but also suggests that the 7-9% should perhaps be more like a bimodal reading of 4-6%% or 10-12%. In fact, that approach suggests that 7-9% may be less likely than the other two ranges!

  3. @philotes
    I gather from what others have said that the difference in terms of seats between 37% vs 30% is very different to 46% vs 39%. I’m not sure how solid the evidence for that is though.

  4. Robin

    Thanks for the explanation about how the Yougov election centre works. I’d sort of understood that (that’s why I referred to non-predictions) but you clarify it nicely.

    I still think there are a lot of factors at play and we may see a lot of surprise losses and gains.

    I’ve been wrong about almost everything to do with this election so far though!

  5. Just put Panelbase into my spreadsheet. I average the polls in batches – roughly Mon-Thurs and Fri-Sun. The graph shows that the gap initially narrowed because the Lab vote was rising. More recently it has been because the Con vote is falling as well.

    The last 6 averages for Con are 47.5, 47.4, 45.5, 44.6, 44.8, 43.4.

  6. @GB

    To be honest we might have bigger concerns, like people saying you got the wrong Robert when you clearly DIDN’T GET THE WRONG ROBERT!!

  7. @MIKE N

    The problem for May with respect to brexit is that she needs both the hard and soft brexiteers to vote for her and specifically choosing one automatically alienates the other.

    Its why I though her “No deal is better than a good deal” argument was extremely poor tactics. She has now signaled that she is more inclined to a hard brexit which pushes some of the soft brexit camp towards Corbyn.

    Corbyn can get away with aiming for a soft brexit because the remainers know soft brexit is about the best they can hope for at this stage, and any governing coalition labour enter into gives them a chance to push for a second referendum on the end negotiated deal and thus negate the whole thing.

    The best thing for May is to be as wooly as possible but unfortunately voters are catching onto that and are demanding an answer, and she’s slowly bleeding votes by not answering, hence her “no deal is better than a bad deal” statement.

  8. I have not posted for a day or so because I am very concerned at the wide divergence between polling companies. Is something amiss somewhere? My gut feeling on the ground having visited Reading East and Reading West (plus living in Maidenhead!) is that there is a hardening up of both Conservative and Labour support. Both Conservative and Labour friends seem quite fired up and these are not politicos like we UKPR brethren. Two Conservative Chamber of Commerce businessmen I spoke to today shared being appalled that their “idiot” children had seperately announced at home that they were voting for Corbyn – causing apoplectic reactions in their respective homes! Anecdotal, but a sign of the times perhaps. My two friends said when challenged their children were just going along with the excitement amongst their friends for Corbyn -” it is almost as if he has a cult following amongst the young” bemoaned one.
    Whilst the young supporting Labour is not knew, what is new is that it is filtering into staunch Conservative families this time. Peculiar? It gives me just a hint that the Yougov figures might be correct? But who knows?

  9. @ STEVEN WHEELER

    Ok thanks I hadn’t considered that.

  10. Robin

    ” It calls all seats at once, many many times, and then averages the results…. (its ) just the median in a wide range of values from e.g. 280-360″

    (IMHO) this really is just noise.

    If you want seat level predictions that are worth anything you need seat level polling.

    It’s very good click bait and its given YG a huge amount of publicity (and the Times too). But my pet dog nosing an arrow on a piece of cardboard could come up with a 280-360 prediction range.

    FWIW I think a balanced average of ALL polling companies- and their contradictory methodologies- is the least error strewn (and they are all chock full of errors lets be honest). Though I fully understand why there are pollsters on here clutching for absolute dear life onto the YouGov panel model.

    Talking of things that are error strewn I need to get back to marking final year examinations.

  11. I’m happy to accept real position is 44/36 in favour of Con – but I think Lab could eat away at that over the next week.

    But I still think there is a chunk of unpollable possible voters out there. Who knows what they will do?

  12. Extract fro the main article on Panelbase’s pre-Manchester poll:

    “Panelbase have tightened their turnout filter to only include people who say 10/10, and they reweight their voting intention question so the age matches the age profile of people who voted in 2015. As with other companies whose turnout model is based upon replicating the age profile of 2015 voters this has a substantial effect. Panelbase say without it their poll would have shown the lead narrowing by 6 points from their previous poll (implying they would otherwise be showing an eight point Tory lead on their old method!). ”

    Given that the latest Panelbase poll shows an additional 8 pt swing to Labour, would their old method now put things neck-and-neck?

  13. Just as an aside, are Labour candidates now going to put JC on their final tranche of election leaflets!?

  14. GB
    “Admin can I object that……”

    lol

  15. Just watched the Corbyn press conference. It could have been straight from the student union. The crowd reminded me a bit of the muppet show when they cheer and the entire body, arms and legs are waving in the air.

    Not a criticism, he is clearly doing a good job getting them all going which May is struggling.

  16. “Talking of things that are error strewn I need to get back to marking final year examinations.”

    ———

    Sounds like a plan!! Try not to get their names mixed up though…

  17. AlexW
    Agreed, almost entirely. But…as she was originally a Remainer prior to conversion to Leaver, it is not at all impossible that if she were to obtain a large majority her position to pursue a soft Brexit would be strengthened in her party. There seems to be a lack of clarity – perhaps even ambivalence – in her Brexit aims.

    Might there be some in her party who would prefer there not to be a large Tory majority?

  18. Rob Sheffield

    “If you want seat level predictions that are worth anything you need seat level polling.”

    While YouGov could be wrong for three reasons – you really don’t understand what they are doing, and you are making assertions that contradict merely the last 200 years in development of social (or natural) science. You could be right, but then you are likely to get the Nobel Prize in physics, chemistry, medicine, and economics. Maybe even in literature looking at some of the metaphors.

  19. Rich

    Whether you agree or disagree with his policies, it has to be acknowledged that Jeremy is a fine “on the stump” man.

    He is enthusing audiences wherever he goes and the public is responding via the polls.

    He did this during his first campaign fior the Labour Party leadership, and is doing so again.

    I fear too many people underestimate Jeremy. He sees the main prize within his grasp now, and will not be deflected.

    Our country is about to undergo some major change, as Jeremy will enact his manifesto.

  20. “Sounds like a plan!! Try not to get their names mixed up though…”

    It’s usually numbers nowadays, as knowing the names might bias your mark. Of course, you can usually tell by the handwriting…

    There may be a lesson in there for elections and polling, but I can’t think of it.

  21. @Robsheffield

    If Yougov are showing LDems on 11% and they scored 8% in 2015 then they are up 3%, not down 3%!

    That could be quite important in South West London…

  22. ROBIN & LASZLO

    Many thanks but no sign of relevant video. I’ll try the C4 news later.

  23. @Rich

    Corbyn is providing an approach beyond the household economics of the usual liberal echo chambers and mainstream media that are being rejected by the young, on account of being liberal echo chambers and stuff.

    There has always been interest in policies like Nationalisation anyway, tends to poll well. Polling doesn’t always explore how many buy into the household economy thing, indeed Yougov’s questioning has bought into it before now.

    We could do with explicit polling on it really.

  24. “While YouGov could be wrong for three reasons – you really don’t understand what they are doing, and you are making assertions that contradict merely the last 200 years in development of social (or natural) science”

    ————

    This may be the case but at least he got YouGov’s name right!! I think we should try to be positive…

  25. panelbase poll has halved the gap

  26. MikeN

    If the Tories scrape home with a small majority (an outcome which seems as likely as any other at the mo, in my opinion given current apparent churn) TM must be open to challenge from within the party, she might even go voluntarily given we would have been through the whole GE process for nothing. This would leave it open for either Rudd or Boris to take over. Rudd has had a very good campaign, and obviously Boris wants the job….
    Under same scenario, Corbyn’s position is undoubtedly strengthened hugely as he will be able to argue that left wing policies previously buried by New Labour are electorally popular.
    We live in interesting times….

  27. @SHELTS

    “Could the same argument not be applied to the Tories as you are applying to Labour in London?”

    It’s possible but Labour’s vote has always been concentrated. I read somewhere Labour typically have much larger majorities in their seats than Tories. They also tend to take university towns, so I see their vote being heavily focused in fewer seats.

  28. @ALEXW

    “Corbyn can get away with aiming for a soft brexit because the remainers know soft brexit is about the best they can hope for at this stage”

    He can get away with it because Soft Brexit isn’t Brexit at all! If we remain in the Single Market then you must accept Freedom of Movement, which is the biggest reason we voted to leave!

  29. @MIKE M

    That is why May came out with her no deal bad deal statement.

    Hardcore leavers know she was remain and a substantial portion believe exactly as you said, that she wants a bigger majority to push through a soft leave. Thus her statement was a reassurance to them that that wasn’t her aim.

    Without reassurance or clarification they are becoming ever more suspicious of May’s intentions, and that means a potential drift of blue hardcore leavers back to UKIP, and for hardcore red leavers, some to UKIP and the rest, well, if its a soft brexit we are getting then they might as well get the red economic policies they want as well as the soft brexit and so go labour.

    May has trapped herself on the brexit issue between two competing and at odds groups making it a no win scenario.

  30. Theresa May’s credibility is shot to pieces and now Corbyn swings round to Brexit. The no show was a major event because it allowed the change of focus

  31. @Rudyard

    What would be the minimum amount of seats that Labour would need to have a chance at forming a coalition? Presumably even if the current YouGov is correct and MAy fails to get a majority she will still be PM?

  32. @BFR

    Re: “If Yougov are showing LDems on 11% and they scored 8% in 2015 then they are up 3%, not down 3%!

    That could be quite important in South West London!!”

    ———–

    With maths like that it’s possible it could also be quite important to those whose papers he’s marking…

  33. Carfrew

    ” I think we should try to be positive…”

    I’m trying to meet your expectations :-)

    And I’m missing your more philosophical musings in the last few days.

  34. HertsAndy
    Agreed.

  35. SW: “Presumably even if the current YouGov is correct and May fails to get a majority she will still be PM?”

    For about a week, yes, as Tory MPs sharpen their knives…

  36. @ROB

    I’m not going to argue if you are correct or not because its irrelevant to what is going on. Its the perception of a substantial portion of the leave voting group that soft brexit exists and its possible and its the best outcome for them.

    Ergo Corbyn stating that such a thing is what he is aiming for gains him VI from them.

  37. lol Carfrew, though looking on the bright side there may be a plus or minus margin of error!

  38. @Rudyard, “Our country is about to undergo some major change, as Jeremy will enact his manifesto.”

    I haven’t been able to keep up with the deluge of propaganda, but this caught my attention as particularly ridiculously unsubstantiated.

    On what evidence can you possibly point to (on an ostensibly non-partisan polling site) that Jeremy will win a comfortable enough majority that would be needed to enact his manifesto?

    He’d need to win around 100 more seats.

  39. @ Barbazenzero

    What has that total k**b Crick been up to now?

  40. AlexW
    “May has trapped herself on the brexit issue between two competing and at odds groups making it a no win scenario.”

    Agreed. She was seduced by the dark side, sorry, I mean the large VI leads.

    Her position was difficult, and if the Tory party achieves a small OM she is toast/history, IMO.

  41. SW. If May fails to get a maj she is in deep trouble. The Tory hierarchy wil not be best pleased. In any hung Parliament scenario the Tories couldonly realistically expect to coalesce with the DUP.
    I suppose Farron might agree to a coalitionbut it would come at a high price……another EU Referendum.

  42. @Laszlo

    I’m keeping out of the fray because being so tightly modded, and in the process others get their posts modded too so I can’t really take the risk. I’m still following things though. I especially like reading peeps’ views of debates and interviews before watching them myself….

  43. @ALEXW

    “I’m not going to argue if you are correct or not because its irrelevant to what is going on. Its the perception of a substantial portion of the leave voting group that soft brexit exists and its possible and its the best outcome for them.”

    I agree what is being seen has nothing to do with Brexit. However, pretending Soft Brexit is a form of Brexit IS wrong.

    Anyway, what we’re seeing is the effects of whatever idiot included fox hunting and the social care policies in that manifesto, instead of raiding Foreign Aid to have more police, nurses, doctors and social care workers.

    Had they done the above, you’d be looking at 52%

    May’s current behaviour is similar to a footballer who has lost confidence (due to the collapse in polls).

  44. I forgot to include in my previous post, they should have left free school dinners alone.

  45. Believe it or not I am trying to keep out of any partisan posts and be balanced. It’s difficult as today has been a pretty strong day of left angled posts. lol!

    Looking forward to polls tonight.

  46. “I suppose Farron might agree to a coalitionbut it would come at a high price……another EU Referendum.”

    Not going to happen, but that would be a stupid thing to ask for. No matter what the result of this election, I’m fairly sure another referendum would end up with the same result. The only thing worth going into coalition for now would be a guaranteed reform of the electoral system (and not another vote on a silly half way step).

  47. Am I the only one that sees the scenario where it becomes very difficult to form a government and we go through it all in 18 months time ?

    Would Lab and Con ever sit down and form a government of national unity? I know that is a daft notion.

  48. @MIKE PEARCE

    If you’re referring to a new Tory leader, who would they pick? I was looking at the cabinet and the only “leaders” I could see were Michael Fallon or Priti Patel and even the latter I’m dubious about.

  49. @SEA CHANGE

    What I am most interested in about in Corbyn’s manifesto is his aim to call a constitutional convention to come to a national consensus on modernizing our governance systems, which god knows need modernizing.

    Some sort of proportional representation system and English parliament are all on the table, I would presume.

    That would really shake up things on the political front.

  50. Sea Change: “On what evidence can you possibly point to (on an ostensibly non-partisan polling site) that Jeremy will win a comfortable enough majority that would be needed to enact his manifesto?

    He’d need to win around 100 more seats.”

    I’m not sure he would. A lot of internal opposition to Corbyn came from the fact he was a bonafide vote-loser (which was, at the time, a very reasonable belief). The Ben Bradshaw types in this party might vote against some of his measures, but they only constitute a handful of MPs – not “hundreds”.

    He probably has the same about level of support for his manifesto from his MPs that May does.

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