A variety of new and newish polls today.

Starting with the newest of the regular polls, Kantar‘s latest topline figures are CON 43%(+1), LAB 33%(-1), LDEM 11%(+2), UKIP 4%(nc). Fieldwork was between Thursday and Tuesday. The changes are not significant in themselves, but unlike most recent polls don’t show continuing movement towards Labour. Note also that there is a methodological change – Kantar now estimate how people who say don’t know will vote based on upon their demographics and whether they find May or Corbyn more trustworthy. The impact of this chance is to decrease the Labour vote by a point (so without it, the Conservative lead would barely have changed at all). Tables are here.

We also saw a Panelbase poll today. This is not actually new – it is the poll that was in the field during the Manchester bombing last week, which Panelbase made the decision to withhold in the light of the tragedy. Topline figures are CON 48%, LAB 33%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 4%. Fieldwork was back between the 19th and 23rd of May. I’ve not included changes as there are significant methodological changes here – Panelbase have tightened their turnout filter to only include people who say 10/10, and they reweight their voting intention question so the age matches the age profile of people who voted in 2015. As with other companies whose turnout model is based upon replicating the age profile of 2015 voters this has a substantial effect. Panelbase say without it their poll would have shown the lead narrowing by 6 points from their previous poll (implying they would otherwise be showing an eight point Tory lead on their old method!). Panelbase tabs are here. In their comments Panelbase also say they will be releasing a new poll in the next day or two which again has the Tory lead falling.

Thirdly there was a new Ipsos MORI Scottish poll. Topline voting intention there is SNP 43%, CON 25%, LAB 25%, LDEM 5%. As ever, the SNP are in a clear first place, but down from the last election. Where it had appeared that the Scottish Conservatives were now the clear second placed party, this suggests that Labour may have recovered into joint-second place (that would also be very good news for the SNP – under FPTP the SNP benefit from being the dominant pro-independence party when the unionist parties are split three ways). Full details are here.

There was also a new SurveyMonkey poll for the Sun. This has topline figures of CON 44%(nc), LAB 38%(+2), LDEM 6%(nc), UKIP 4%(-1). Now, SurveyMonkey are not members of the British Polling Council and we don’t have any tables or further methodological detail to examine. However, they did poll at the 2015 election so have a record to judge. Their method is unusual – sample is gathered by randomly selecting people at the end of other surveys hosted on the surveymonkey platform. Back in 2015 they were the only company whose pre-election poll got the Conservative lead about right…but because they got both Labour and the Conservatives too low their average error across all parties was the highest (and the BPC inquiry found that their sample was still heavily skewed towards the politically interested… though they may have corrected that since then). In short, make of that what you will – it may be that their approach does do something that traditional polling does not… or it may be they just got lucky in 2015.


770 Responses to “New Kantar, Panelbase, MORI and Surveymonkey polls”

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  1. First?

  2. Any view on the YouGov seat prediction today?

  3. Sorry, I know that’s a bit childish..

  4. I wonder if Labour’s rise in Scotland will continue to the point where they benefit from strategic voting in a number of seats.

  5. @James Mackay

    We’ve all done it ( or tried to do it)!

  6. Labour have improved in Scotland as they have in the UK. Question is, is it spread thin or can it win seats?

  7. Just been out leaflet dropping in sunny and warm north east Somerset. No posters, no bad feedback everyone very friendly.

  8. The Tories are polling at about 45% and if this holds they will have a clear majority. History suggests that they will poll slightly above this at the election( and gain a little from UKIP switches on the day). If Brexit matters TM will win reasonably well. If Brexit does not matter then what has everyone worried about for the last year?

    Strange times, and the polls are still not consistent.

  9. Quite a lot to take in here but I’ll start with the Scottish poll.

    SNP VI quite a bit down from 2015 but according to Scotland votes the SNP would win 51 seats, down 5, Tories 4 up 3, Labour 2 up 1, Lib/Dem 2, up 1.

    Considering the Westminster election is nothing more than a little sideshow for the SNP, they look set to have another incredible night.

  10. This has not turned into a Brexit election. No one can be sure which pollster has got this right.

  11. So can we take SurveyMonkey seriously? Perhaps no worse than the official providers, in the sense that the movements compared to last time should be reliable, if not the absolute numbers. If so, the numbers do suggest a recent calm period, after the now well established (I think!) surge in the Labour vote from initial landslide territory. I’m tending towards the gap still being around 10%, with some polls overstating the narrowing, but it’s just a gut feeling based difficulty to believe so many people have changed their minds.

  12. Thank you Allan Christie. Those results in Scotland would be a relief for the SNP I think, but also would offer some grounds for hope for the other parties.

  13. Not sure Emily Thornberry’s intemperate language is helping Labour.

  14. Well I doubt if many are watching the “reaction” show.

  15. ANDY T

    What decides a majority is not if the Tories are ‘in the mid 40’s’ but how close they are to Labour in England.

    They need to be about 10 points ahead nationally to be sure of a LAB -> CON swing and win marginal seats.

  16. At least Tim Farron can get a job in stand up after the election.

    Thanks AC for your analysis of the Scottish poll. There were some straws in the wind about this movement in the Scottish crossbreaks so it’s good to get confirmation.
    That’s 5 less seats for the Cons in Scotland than we were looking at a couple of weeks ago. Reducing their possible majority by 10.

  17. So still in 70/100 May majority territory.

  18. Think TM owes Rudd big time -very brave of her to participate in the week her father died.

  19. I gave up watching the spin room. Way to much shouting. Pretty much like the debate.

  20. Hmm, just having a wee troll through the cross breaks for Scotland. Certainly looks to be a shift back to the SNP.

    PB SNP 48% Tory 26% Labour 17% lib/Dem 7%

    Kanter SNP 47 Labour 23% Tory16%

    Meanwhile The Sun’s response to Survey Monks and Yougov

    “The poll was conducted among nearly 19,000 voters over the past week, and has a margin of error of 1.5 points”

    “It comes in the wake of a highly controversial YouGov analysis predicting that the Tories will fall short of a majority.

    “That poll, based on a complex computer model, flies in the face of every other survey carried out in the past year.”

    “Although the Tories’ lead has been falling for the past 10 days, the party is still expected to stay in power after June 8.”

  21. The polls are interesting in that they’re still predominantly suggesting a comfortable Tory lead of 10% or more.

    The outliers are even more interesting, in so far as they keep the race interesting and pollsters on their toes. The divergence between them should be pretty concerning for the companies involved though.

    However in all likelihood it still looks like we’re headed for a decent Tory majority next week.

  22. Are you sure he died this week Brilliant Smith – what reference do you have?

  23. ALLAN CHRISTIE

    Cross breaks are small and vary massively. Stick to the Scottish polls.

  24. The Yougov prediction model kind of implies an ABT thing, and I think it’s fermenting. It’s not picked up by other pollsters as their question is different (as they don’t actually ask if you would vote for the Conservatives).

    I’m not yet committed, but I have an inclination that it exists.

  25. Quick question, the new YouGov rolling poll says it will update every day until the 8th. Anyone have any idea at what time the update will happen? The first version was released late last night, so should we expect an update late tonight, or do we have to wait until the morning?

  26. Ah, found it on the sun:
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3693764/amber-rudd-stands-up-to-debate-jeremy-corbyn-despite-death-of-elderly-father-just-days-before/

    Very impressive from her. Not so good for Theresa May really…

  27. @ DrMibbles

    It is a little strange how so many people can’t seem to get their heads around the fact that both Lab and Cons are polling above 2015 their GE result.

    Another common misconception is that UKIP is breaking uniformly and overwhelmingly for Cons. Cons are still doing better than Lab from this source, but it has evened up a lot since the start of the campaign.

    From examining the YouGov model results, it seems that they expect (i.e their data shows) strong regional effects in how the UKIP vote splits between Lab and Cons – in a way that helps Lab in the old heavy industrial heartlands.

  28. Tactical voting will definitely be a bigger factor in the 2017 GE for the simple reason that the Lib Dems are de-toxified.

    This is shown clearly in the YouGov seat modelling – a lot of ex-LD seats the Tories took in 2015 are back in contention for them, indicating LAB voters willing to switch to LD in those constituencies.

  29. DRM

    If Tories poll 45% I think you can be very confident that Labour will poll at about 35%.

    That in itself would be a clear return to 2 party politics away from Scotland.

    A 45/35 split would be a very good result for both TM ( who would have a very nice majority) and Corbyn ( who would have lost but fraught the good fight).

  30. Brilliant smith

    I agree Amber took one for the team there and held her own despite some shameful abuse. Don’t thInk JC covered himself in glory at all.. in fact he might lose some votes back to Farron

  31. Andy T, Mike Pearce, and all,
    I have posted this before, that I do not understand why everyone is ignoring Brexit in their analysis. The dog that didnt bark, the elephant in the room, the dead cat which no one dares to speak its name.

    I dont agree Brexit necessarily favours May. May has espoused hard Brexit, labour’s policy is rather more soft Brexit. In principle the leave vote is therefore split between them. Although the initial break was conservative=leave and labour=remain, I thought I saw in the most recent yougov data that this had unwound a little. I await with interest whether conservative vote remains polarised, whereas labour becomes less so, implying they are getting some cross brexit support.

    Labour seems to have thoroughly grabbed the remain vote. Its pretty obvious that no one has forgotten about it. If they get remain plus half leave, that is a landslide and perfectly explains what has been happening.

    Of course, Labour have some confounding issues, but Corbyn has done quite well about neutralising some of them.

  32. The under 40s are very very determined to vote predominately for Corbyn. The combination of young voters, social media and the connection towards Corbyn is turning into a powerful force but it is generally outside mainstream media and I don’t think this is getting picked up by most pollsters.

    The idea they will not be bothered to vote is wrong. Survation had 84% of 18 to 24 year olds as definite to vote. 2.3 million registered to vote after the election was called, Labour is expected to benefit the most.

    It really is a generation vote.

  33. Apparently Amber Rudd’s dad died in 2003, fake news. Some sickening comments online saying TM forced her to appear tonight.

  34. @ EXILEINYORKS

    Agree completely. I tried highlighting this and was called a Labour shill.

    Considering this is a polling discussion forum quite a few people don’t get basic concepts like regional differences and swing.

    If YouGov’s data is showing UKIP breaking to Labour in places where it matters (and looking at their modelling, it must do), then even if the final tally is 44-36, it’s unlikely CON would take many seats from LAB, since that would be a negligible swing in England.

  35. drmibbles,
    ” indicating LAB voters willing to switch to LD in those constituencies.”

    LAB voters or remain voters?

  36. ANDY T

    Considering current polling in Scotland and Wales, 35-45 nationally is a 1.5% swing from CON -> LAB in England. Not huge majority territory if Red Kippers are falling back to LAB where it matters.

  37. DANNY – good point, could be either/both, probably a mix of the two

  38. profhoward

    Thank you Allan Christie. Those results in Scotland would be a relief for the SNP I think, but also would offer some grounds for hope for the other parties.
    _____________

    The Lib/Dems and Labour would see their seats double to 2 each. The Tories would more than quadruple their seats to 4. It’s quite an extraordinarily good night for the 3 of them. ;-)

  39. Tom Chadwick,
    “The combination of young voters, social media and the connection towards Corbyn is turning into a powerful force but it is generally outside mainstream media and I don’t think this is getting picked up by most pollsters. ”

    I don’t really know how it can be picked up. These votes are marked down because of the voters past track record nowtithstanding what thee say about being determined to vote. It is based upon what they did last time, so how can it be revised until this time becomes last time?

  40. Labour has got a UKIP friendly manifesto, kippers are more in favour of renationalision than voters of any other parties as I recall

  41. @ Drmibbles

    “…the Lib Dems are de-toxified.
    This is shown clearly in the YouGov seat modelling”

    Yes, I think you’re right that it shows that the YouGov model believes the LibDems are de-toxified. Whether that’s actually the case is another matter.

    To answer my own question about YouGov rolling updates, it appears it has already updated since last night, but of course the differences are small given that most of the sample is the same. In terms of seats:

    Con 310->311
    Lab 257->255
    SNP 50->51

  42. Yes Alan it looks like another exceptional night for the SNP. If they come close to holding around 50 seats its another landslide for them.

  43. “Allan”

  44. Cloudspotter

    At least Tim Farron can get a job in stand up after the election.

    Thanks AC for your analysis of the Scottish poll. There were some straws in the wind about this movement in the Scottish crossbreaks so it’s good to get confirmation.
    That’s 5 less seats for the Cons in Scotland than we were looking at a couple of weeks ago. Reducing their possible majority by 10
    ____________

    Absolutely, I just had a look at the cross breaks and they do hint at some movement back to the SNP. I know cross breaks are quite volatile but they can hint at something.

  45. No scientific analysis here, just a gut feeling that Labour will do better than expected and may prevent the Tories making any gain and may even cause TM to do worse than they did in 2015!

    In 2015 I had a gut feeling the Tories would get a small majority, think I predicted on here they would be the largest party but just fall short of an OM.

    As I said nothing scientific but just think it will be much closer than people think it will be. Time will tell…..

  46. Just because it came up – the audience of the leaders plus Rudd debate was picked by ComRes …

  47. It looks like people are looking at the wrong Tony Rudd on Wikipedia. Her father was a stockbroker, not an engineer.

    According to an Independent article, Tony Rudd was still alive in 2011.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/analysis-and-features/poacher-turned-discreet-gamekeeper-2274013.html

    There has been material on the Rudds in Private Eye which is how I heard his name.

    Amber Rudd did well to keep it together in the circumstances.

  48. AW
    Please, please use your wisdom, experience, intuition and just tell us which poll to trust.
    Big difference.

  49. Laszlo

    Didn’t do much if a job then. It felt more like they were picked by Len McClusky

  50. So, who won?

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