Two new polls today:

Survation for Good Morning Britain this morning had topline figures of CON 43%(nc), LAB 37%(+3), LDEM 9%(nc), UKIP 4%(nc). Fieldwork was on Friday and Saturday and changes are from the previous week. Tabs are here.

ICM for the Guardian had topline figures of CON 45%(-1), LAB 33%(+1), LDEM 8%(nc), UKIP 5%(nc). Fieldwork was from Friday to Monday and changes are from the ICM/Sun on Sunday poll at the weekend. Tabs are here.

Both of today’s polls continue to show movement in Labour’s favour, thought the overall lead is different. A six point Tory lead would represent a small swing towards Labour, a twelve point Tory lead would still give them a stonking great majority.

The key difference between polls showing large and small leads is, as I wrote at the weekend down to how pollsters are treating turnout. There are lots of differences between different polling companies methods: they sample differently, weight by different things, do different things with don’t knows and so on. However, right now the one really huge difference is turnout. Weighted with all its normal demographic and political weights, ICM would have shown a Tory lead of only 3 points – that was transformed into a lead of 11 points by the turnout model, which predicts how likely respondents are to vote based on the estimates of turnout by age and class at the last election (the change from 11 to 12 points was the reallocation of don’t knows). That’s a big change, but given the errors in the polls in 2015 that may be necessary. On the other hand, if Jeremy Corbyn has managed to enthuse young people and there is a higher rate of turnout among younger voters than in 2015 then it risks understating Labour support. We shall find out next week…


1,134 Responses to “Latest ICM and Survation polls”

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  1. Osbourne not going to forget the sacking….Doubt it will change much as Labour look strong in London already.

  2. Tory- leaning posters here seem mostly convinced that the polls are skewed against Con who will win comfortably. A few brave labourites think the same for their guys, though bitter experience has taught us the Tory-leaners may well be right.

    All the same I’d say the consensus, especially among those who actually know something about what they’re talking about, is that we don’t have a clue and anything could happen.

    This is far more interesting than I expected!

  3. @Phil

    Your seats changes in the South:

    Thurrock – Move from Con to Lab
    Plymouth Sutton & Devonport – Move from Con to Lab
    Brighton Kemptown – Move from Con to Lab
    Bedford – Move from Con to Lab
    Plymouth Moor View – Move from Con to Lab
    Peterborough – Move from Con to Lab
    Waveney – Move from Con to Lab
    Clacton – Move from UKIP to Con

  4. The times thing is a load of stinky stuff. It must be a ploy to GOTV for the Tories, it’s simply not believable

  5. Allan Christie

    Osborne is a little boy crying in the dark.. his opinion is irrelevant now. He just looks like a sad and bitter character who can’t accept he s days in the limelight have been and gone. I suspect
    TM thinks she is well rid

  6. YouGov Seat estimates are saying Con down 20 seats compared to 2015, Labour up 28. Curious what poll they’ve got.

  7. @ Garj

    This is over simplified, but it is illustrates why a Cons lead of around 7% is unlikely to deliver a big majority.

    Most of the seats Lab won in 2015 (212 of 232) they won with a vote share above 40%. Lab’s national vote share has gone up (by about 1/7th per the recent polls) so on UNS 40% in 2015 is equivalent to around 45% in 2017.

    It is very rare to lose a seat with over 45% of the vote as even in a nominally two party contest the minor parties pick up some of the vote so 45% almost always gets a win.

    This is the too weak to win, too strong to die scenario that someone (John Curtice I think) wrote about earlier in the year.

  8. Taking the Times tweet at face value, it leaves Corbyn just a few seats short of being in a position to try to form a minority government with a confidence and supply agreement with SNP and the various “progressive alliance” parties.

    Whether that could actually happen – or work – is another matter

  9. According to Laura Kuenssberg on BBC news, she found strong evidence “where it matters” (Midlands) that the broad principles of where this campaign started pretty much remain with May a more popular choice for PM despite Corbyn having run a superb campaign. In reference to my last post, that’s why I’d love a more directed and specific poll.

  10. Just imagine for a second if that poll was right. What a mess it would be. Numbers not there for a rainbow coalition, and if so it would be the weakest Govt in history. And as for Cons, they can’t talk to LDs so what???

  11. Catmanjeff

    I love the optimism. Clacton obviously and I suspect Brighton Kemptown might go it probably ought to have last time.. although the incumbent has benn there for a while now. The rest I can’t see labour getting anywhere.

  12. @confused

    On what grounds do you suggest that engagement was highest when the election was announced?

  13. I’m surprised YouGov get involved in the seat prediction game. I’d’ve thought getting the vote shares right was hard enough without venturing into seats.

  14. @Paul Croft

    “HOORAY !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    No silly posts yet.”

    That’s a relief. I was fearing we might get some geezer pretending to be a couple of gormless pooches!!

    :-)

    P.S. Arsene’s staying for a couple more years, I see. Maybe he’s sticking around until the conclusion of the Brexit negotiations. I suspect he’s a fan of the free movement of labour. When that goes, he’ll be stuck to put a squad together!f

  15. @AlexW – a libertines concert! Seriously … please tell me you are kidding. That is not even representative of 18-24s, let alone the country as a whole. Ed M got the endorsement of Russell Brand yet the “don’t vote” voted in their usual numbers.

    The 18-30s are as pro-Labour as they have always been. Not particularly more because of Corbyn. Their likelihood to vote seems about the same as always too.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-39965925

  16. @Phil

    Those are based on a model, entirely mathematically derived.

    There is no subjective optimism or pessimism – just number crunching :-)

  17. Paul h-J,
    “What it also probably means is that the Lab vote is soft.” well i dont know. yes, I can see why arguably converted undecideds might be converted back, but I think it depends upon the nature of that conversion. I see Brexit as trapped between the immoveable object of the nature and rules of the EU and the unstoppable force of the demands of the UK economy. Government can neither simply walk away from the EU, nor ignore the needs of the economy. Something will give in the end.

    Just so the problem of voting for your Brexit choice or your party choice. I personally see this as remoresless logic pushing a majority way from hard brexit tories towards soft brexit labour, even if they dont much like what they see of the labour party. But once voters have accepted they have to go that way the warts of the labour party are not going to dissuade them.

  18. ON – IIRC it was ICM who ran a ‘wisdom index’ and I seem to recall that the Cons regularly did better in that index than the polls so some merit in the idea perhaps?

  19. “According to Laura Kuenssberg on BBC news”

    I know many people who would not consider Kuenssberg to be non-partisan, but nevertheless, what she says rings true on this occasion.

  20. I think yougov have had the pollster equivalent of a nervous breakdown. All this from a poll of 2000 people on the internet and they can suddenly predict every seat in the uk. Why are the
    Times publishing this rubbish ?

  21. @ Phil

    To scare the Tory vote and drive up turnout.

  22. Phil,
    Sam Coates of The Times is now claiming the seat prediction is “based on complex model and 7,000 sample over 7 days”.

  23. That Times poll would really throw things up in the air

  24. @phil

    Ask L Crosby

  25. Is it a tactic to get out the vote for Cons??

  26. A well-sampled and -weighted poll of 2000 online should be no different to a phone poll… shouldn’t it?

  27. @Alex F
    The Survation poll shows a very high 10/10 certainty to vote figure – 81% (it was 76% a wk ago).
    ======================================
    I’m with you – I simply cannot believe that we are going to see a turnout of 81%. That means that almost every single adult in the UK who hasn’t moved house, hasn’t, forgotten a postal vote, isn’t working away, isn’t on holiday, doesn’t have a hard day at work etc. is going to go out and vote on June 8th.

    There hasn’t been a turnout over 80% since 1974, back in the days when we only had 2 TV channels so everyone knew there was an election.

    I’d love to know how the Labour Party is going to get into every Tory/Lab marginal and in there get every person under 25 to go out and vote Labour – something that hasn’t been done in the past 20 years at the very least.

  28. The yougov seat projections suggest a swing of 1.5% from Con to Lab in England.

    Quite a number of polls recently have shown this (bearing in mind the increased Tory vote share in Scotland and Wales).

    Not fanciful at all. It will be based on regional swing data. Lots of denial happening in this thread.

  29. Times frontpage sensational. Theresatives falling short of majority.
    Some outfit called YouGov did the poll. anyone heard of them ?
    Time for senior Conservatives to open talks with DUP for coalition on June 9, just in case.

  30. It does seem the BBC is going all out in support of May today. Corbyn’s fluff wasn’t good, but it was hardly earth shattering. And Kuensstory’s “strong evidence” sounds like no more than talking to a few people and then extrapolating. And from what she quotes, there doesn’t seem anything to back her conclusions. It’s a puff piece.

    It’s already yesterday’s news anyway. Most of the papers have other stories – Hunt admitting Brexiot will damage the NHS, Times on their “shock” poll. I really think it’s newspaper front pages that set the agenda – they are what people see on the bus and train in the morning, in the supermarkets and corner shops.

    The Metro has “I’m sorry I hadn’t a clue”, but that’s making a joke of it, and the subliminal message is that it doesn’t matter.

  31. @David

    “According to Laura Kuenssberg on BBC news, she found strong evidence “where it matters” (Midlands) that the broad principles of where this campaign started pretty much remain with May a more popular choice for PM despite Corbyn having run a superb campaign. In reference to my last post, that’s why I’d love a more directed and specific poll.”

    I’m always loathe to rely on anything very much that Kuenssberg ever says, but I fear her analysis is right. I live in the West Midlands, a marginal rich part of the world where the Lib Dems and UKIP are historically weak and where most seats are straight Labour v Tory fights. I feel in my water that the swing to the Tories will be bigger in this part of the world and a 6-7% Tory lead in national VI may well this time deliver them a far bigger overall majority than it did in 2015.

    That’s why this feels so much like 1992 to me. I also think there are still shy Tories lurking in the shadows who will unmask themselves in the privacy of the ballot booth on June 8th. Unpopular Labour leader fighting a good campaign against a play-safe and lacklustre sitting Tory PM looking for a mandate of their own. Wobbles in the Tory campaign a week or so before polling day, one or two rogue polls, some spasms of optimism in Labour ranks. As I say, 1992 all over again.

    Vincent Hannah, where are you when we need you??

  32. catmanjeff

    @AC

    I kind of have seven Tory gains pencilled in for Scotland.

    It looks like the best region for gains for the Tories to me
    ___________

    They held 1 seat and if they gain 7 that = 8. That leaves 51 none Tory seats in Scotland. It’s hardly an endorsement for TM. The SNP went from 6 to 56 in 2015 but no doubt if the Tories gain just 7 then Scottish policitics will have been totalty transformed.

  33. It’s rather difficult to comment on the Times/YouGov prediction without knowing more about their methodology. Hopefully this will be explained a little better!

  34. @Drmibbles

    I don’t quite get the numbers of the latest YG output, but my own data shows a much smaller Tory lead than I think many assume, when using regional swing data.

  35. Anyway according to April to May polls, the Conservatives will be somewhere between twenty seats short and a hundred and fifty majority. Let us ignore them and focus only on June polls which must be held accountable on June 9.

  36. If true, and I am very sceptical of that seat projection based on poll of polls over the weekend, but if true, I think it’s fair to say, and partisan, that that would be a very bad situation for the UK and lead to a very weak Govt either way (rainbow coalition with majority of 1-5 let’s say), or Con Govt with DUP confidence and supply, same thing majority of say 1-5. It’s another election in Sept if you ask me.

  37. I may have missed something, but is this much derided YG seat projection based on published polls, or one of their own polls yet to be released? For those being very disparaging, I would think this is an important point to clarify.

    On the turnout debate:

    AW’s point about the ICM turnout filter really is a bit of an eye opener, with a 8% difference before and after. While we can ponder for another nine days or so whether of not the young will actually rise up from their arses and take back their country, no one seems to be thinking much about the wizened old buffers.

    Given that the big hits that holed the Tory manifesto below the waterline were largely impacting older voters (or at least on issues they really care about) and the manifesto fiasco was the start of the poll tightening, I wonder if there is a case to be made that older Con voters may be less inclined to vote for a party that they perceive has thrown them under the proverbial bus?

    A turnout squeeze at one end and a boost at the other would be right up Labour’s street, if they could pull it off.

  38. Cross bath

    I live in the Midlands too.. labour are nowhere here. There is n way they will hold some of these seats.. they are hardly trying either. I presume yougov has labour gains here then .. lol

  39. Non partisan I mean? Everybody agree or not?.

  40. Phil

    Allan Christie

    Osborne is a little boy crying in the dark.. his opinion is irrelevant now. He just looks like a sad and bitter character who can’t accept he s days in the limelight have been and gone. I suspect
    TM thinks she is well rid
    __________

    I know I know but he makes good reading. ;-)

  41. @AC

    In Scotland Labour and the Tories are bald men fighting over a comb.

    :-)

  42. JimJam

    Thanks for that. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if the Wisdom of Crowds was a good predictor of “the public mood”.

    It does require an acceptance that people’s judgments are based on a huge array of inputs – that they themselves can’t identify – but maybe means that they are more able to judge the “feel” around them : often better than they can explain why they themselves te the way they do.

    More research is required, and the task should be allocated to Dr Hari Seldon.

  43. Isn’t that the first BBC news bulletin since the Manchester attack that they haven’t led on it?

  44. @Rich,
    New election Thursday 21st September 2017 ?

  45. cross batty 11

    ” I was fearing we might get some geezer pretending to be a couple of gormless pooches!!”

    That would definitely be silly.

    Actually I do have two little doggies myself and they are far from gormless as a glance at some of their many photos on my fb pages would prove.

    21 more years for me as far as Arsene is concerned. I like him very much.

  46. How would the Tories end up losing 20 seats despite consistently polling in the say 43% – 46% range? Just doesnt feel as though it passes the smell test unless the votes stack up ideally for Lab

  47. What poll in the times?

  48. I wonder if May would call this again if she had a rewind button?

  49. I am checking the betting odds, and there are no drifts or shortenings occurring. I would’ve thought that if they believe this to be true, betting markets would show immediately. Will also need to look at the £ tomorrow, how it fares against €

  50. The YouGov estimates are based on 42-38 poll.

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