Two new polls today:

Survation for Good Morning Britain this morning had topline figures of CON 43%(nc), LAB 37%(+3), LDEM 9%(nc), UKIP 4%(nc). Fieldwork was on Friday and Saturday and changes are from the previous week. Tabs are here.

ICM for the Guardian had topline figures of CON 45%(-1), LAB 33%(+1), LDEM 8%(nc), UKIP 5%(nc). Fieldwork was from Friday to Monday and changes are from the ICM/Sun on Sunday poll at the weekend. Tabs are here.

Both of today’s polls continue to show movement in Labour’s favour, thought the overall lead is different. A six point Tory lead would represent a small swing towards Labour, a twelve point Tory lead would still give them a stonking great majority.

The key difference between polls showing large and small leads is, as I wrote at the weekend down to how pollsters are treating turnout. There are lots of differences between different polling companies methods: they sample differently, weight by different things, do different things with don’t knows and so on. However, right now the one really huge difference is turnout. Weighted with all its normal demographic and political weights, ICM would have shown a Tory lead of only 3 points – that was transformed into a lead of 11 points by the turnout model, which predicts how likely respondents are to vote based on the estimates of turnout by age and class at the last election (the change from 11 to 12 points was the reallocation of don’t knows). That’s a big change, but given the errors in the polls in 2015 that may be necessary. On the other hand, if Jeremy Corbyn has managed to enthuse young people and there is a higher rate of turnout among younger voters than in 2015 then it risks understating Labour support. We shall find out next week…


1,134 Responses to “Latest ICM and Survation polls”

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  1. Pathetic control by Bbc, better get Bercow in to do it.

  2. Constant reminding viewers of the dementia tax + TM’s absence won’t help CON VI.

    But agree it’s a silly shouting match. Poorly moderated.

  3. @phil
    Oh dear, the ‘BBC are biased against us’ meme – whether from left or right this just makes you look silly….

    This is such a bizarre election – anything from 100 seat majority to hung parliament depending on how you model voter turnout.

    The supposed 44% Tory shield wall (copyright SThomas!) appears to be a papier mache number… if the Tories trend down to or below 42% it will get really interesting, as that suggests that Labour will have narrowed the gap on them and start winning additional seats.

    Who would have thought that when Corbyn started the campaign on 25%?!

  4. AARON

    I agree with that, but the debate makes little difference. Its the Media narrative afterwards. If that is favourable to her it can be said to be a “good” move.

    Corbyn doing okay but getting attacked left right and centre on Immigration.

    Its a total mess of a debate though.

  5. Robert Peston just tweeted feels the audience is rigged…now if he is saying that, got to be worth exploring.

    Hugely pro immigration which isn’t really indicative of the UK based on things like Brexit.

  6. Saying that the debate itself does not matter is wrong, the debate does matter just as much as the headlines. Many people in the UK don’t necessarily believe the Press anymore but being told that a gaggle of backstabbing politicians were at each other’s throats each other all night is very believable. It will play against Corbyn as he has now lowered himself to that level.

    Before he could say that he was a gent and had the impenetrable armour of a reasonable geography professor as he professed his ‘new politics’.

    Now he will be tarred by a brush he will not want to be associated with and the element of whether he is trustworthy may even raise its head.

    Bad move

  7. This debate would be better if they were sitting on sofas

  8. Based on the polls( apart from You Gov who i still expect will speedily track to the herd) about 44% of the population have decided who they want to be PM. We need a leader of govenrnment and to lead negotiations as we exit EU.

    This is a very critical time for the UK, seriously everything else is noise.

    I will sit quietly now and wait for the result( I am in Greece on 8\6). Are the polls wrong and we live in the mad house.

  9. Amber Rudd is doing well in the face of a bias audience and Leanne Wood bellowing in her ear but we’ve switched off, too much out of control arguing.

  10. What’s the point of keep reminding the audience of her absence.. are they all sat ther with guide dogs ? We can see . Just looks like a load of repetitive whinging. Why not remind them that Sturgeon isn’t there either. Just in case no one spots the snp representative is a bloke

  11. I would also hasten to say that narratives from the media did not help with the US Election or the EU referendum. If anything it seemed there was a natural tendency to assume that whatever the narrative was one should think the inverse of it to get the truth.

  12. What a load of tosh demeaning to the participants.It’s like listening to a dumbed down PMQs with children taking the main roles – where on earth is the the chair person? What we need is a constantly moving drivel-ometer and if you drive it off the scale with tales of your sick mother (you know who you are Farron) then you should be buzzered off the stage like on BGT.Now that would be worth watching.

  13. Will posters stop criticising the moderation! You’re talking about my future wife, though she’s not aware of that yet (nor her husband)

  14. Good evening all from a very sunny Winchester.

    Just tuned into the leader’s debate on BBC.., Staggering amount of politicians.

    Extremely impressed with Angus Roberston and ol Corby over terrorism and some of the causes.

  15. This is in Cambridge which had the highest remain vote in the country, I think the audience reflects that

  16. prospero

    Ha ha!

    Has anyone been in the audience for these sorts of things? What checks are taken place?

    Interesting to know.

  17. I haven’t been watching, but here’s a thought. Maybe they should run it like Just a Minute, with each ‘contestent’ getting a limited time on each question, losing it if they deviate. Actually, getting Nicolas Parsons to host might lighten the tone too.

  18. I also think that Corbyn will now also have a more difficult time persuading the electorate he is able to lead Brexit effectively. If he cannot control this lot then he has no hope against Brussels. That may be a narrative we see from the Con HQ

  19. Switched to Sunderland Ladies v Manchester City Ladies – no score with 20 minutes left if anyone’s interested

  20. I am on a 20 minute delay, but I will bet a large sum that Jeremy Corbyns next comment will get rapturous applause.

  21. Sounds like Cambridge may have plenty of left wing loonies living there too if this audience is typical. They certainly don’t have much in the way of manners

  22. As someone fairly new to this board it does seem that the ‘no partisan comments’ rule is not widely observed…

  23. I don’t honestly think it’s as bad as some are making out. The cross-talking and applause is annoying, but I’ve seen far worse on any average QT.

    As for the debate, I think they’re all getting in a few shots. Farron’s performing better than I expected, and Lucas as well. Rudd is also deflecting attacks fairly effectively. If it goes on like this, it’ll just be a draw I think.

  24. SSSimon

    I agree with it being a draw. Farron doing very well.

  25. I think they should do it on a knock-out basis. Every five minutes a hooter goes off and whoever is speaking is out. The final two standing have a dance-off, winner gets to be PM for the day. Maybe give them a small crown or something.

  26. David West

    Thanks for the tip.

  27. bantams

    “Amber Rudd is doing well in the face of a bias audience and Leanne Wood bellowing in her ear but we’ve switched off, too much out of control arguing”
    ____________

    BBC bash Labour = good BBC

    BBC bash SNP = good BBC

    BBC leaders debate audience disagrees with Tory stand in = Bad BBC.

    Amber is way out of her depth. She’s sinking and Nuttall should throw her some sort of lifeline, otherwise, she drowns.

  28. I agree with the comment anyway about Lucas.. I like her.. but it’s easy being a green you don’t really get picked on

  29. Helen

    Stick with UKPR though.

    After the election most of the newbie partisan posters will return from whence they came (and god knows where some of them came from!) and the site will return to its normal affable self.

  30. Asking questions is good, but I’d prefer a mute audience, ideally.

  31. @ Allan

    Think we were watching different programmes. By the way, Springwatch is on BBC2.

  32. I use a form of weighting on here, like the pollsters do. If the post is by certain people, I discard it, with others I divide it by two, and with a few I listen carefully.

  33. Sneaky new thread!

  34. bantams

    @ Allan

    ” By the way, Springwatch is on BBC2″
    ___________

    Thanks for the heads up. I’ll catch it on the iplayer. :-)

  35. Bantams

    “Springwatch is on BBC2”

    Thanks – any good tweets?

  36. If the BBC bill the event as a balanced audience and then there is a noticeable bias it’s not about good/bad for whatever party, it’s about the fact they have not done their job properly. A factor which probably adds to the relative anarchy of the debate. They will clearly have to rethink these events in the future

  37. not watching the debate – may catch up on it later. Is nuttal going after the tories? Tactically Id have thought thats there best bet for getting some voters back to UKIP.

  38. HELEN

    It is always worse during the lead-up to a GE. Between elections the comments section attracts far fewer partisans and the regulars adhere to the policy rather well.

  39. Last question is killer

  40. I also think that Corbyn will now also have a more difficult time persuading the electorate he is able to lead Brexit effectively. If he cannot control this lot then he has no hope against Brussels. That may be a narrative we see from the Con HQ

    Linking JC’s ‘lack of control’ of the debate to the ability to negotiate Brexit is a crazy tangential Rowntrees Random idea, if you don’t mind me saying so.

  41. Anyone not watching the debate is missing nothing. It is appalling; everyone talking over each other, a totally useless chairman and an audience which is about 90% Corbyn supporters.

    May has missed nothing, I bet half the country will have switched off by now anyway. Not sure Corbyn will have gained anything by trying to play clever politics. Yes I’m going, no I’m not, yes I am.

    I hope this is the death of this format.

  42. @rich

    Peston is just bitter because of the absolute drivel he now presents on ITV (and he knows it) Without commenting on whether this audience is representative or not, I honestly believe the vast majority of people in this country are broadly liberal and open to liberal arguments but, as all on here know, it that few moments alone in the polling booth that will make all the difference next Thursday

  43. Let’s hope they have vetted the audience for the Friday q time thing so we don’t see this again. Either that or get some security in there and warn them not to shout abuse or risk being thrown out.

  44. Helen,
    The boss is off working on polling and the kids are playing.

    There are some posts earlier about the potential errors of the polls and which might be more accurate, but the truth is we dont know. Thus we all fall back on anecdotes, how debates are being received and so on. The is a lot of rubbish being posted here, but some gems.

  45. @phil

    There should be some armed police available now the security rating has been dropped

    I wonder who they’d be shouting for

  46. I doubt there is a single Brexiter or Conservative voter in the audience.

  47. Again, just to reiterate I am non-aligned, but this audience vetting is a disgrace. Whichever party you support, how on earth can a debate take place in which every utterance by one leader is cheered and every utterance by the other, currently at over 40% in the polls, is met with either silence or heckling?

    It’s just apalling.

  48. I am watching a Perigrinne Falcon chick on spring watch as I had to turn over. I know you’ll all say I am biased, but something isn’t right about that audience. It felt very very liberal / pro immigration. Nuttall for example is getting treated like the devil.

  49. @ Catmanjeff

    I’m not saying it would be true, I don’t think it is. But if the narrative can be driven that he is not able to be in/take control then it could prove undermining to him. Just as the ‘weak and wobbly’ narrative proved for May. Narratives are rarely true these days so I wouldn’t be surprised if a more nuanced version of that kind of talk is circled for voter consideration is all I was saying.

  50. BANTAMS

    “@ Paul Croft
    I try to play but it always sets our cats off in chorus mode!”

    Try mentioning catgut for guitar strings and you might get a bit more respect.

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