Two new polls today:

Survation for Good Morning Britain this morning had topline figures of CON 43%(nc), LAB 37%(+3), LDEM 9%(nc), UKIP 4%(nc). Fieldwork was on Friday and Saturday and changes are from the previous week. Tabs are here.

ICM for the Guardian had topline figures of CON 45%(-1), LAB 33%(+1), LDEM 8%(nc), UKIP 5%(nc). Fieldwork was from Friday to Monday and changes are from the ICM/Sun on Sunday poll at the weekend. Tabs are here.

Both of today’s polls continue to show movement in Labour’s favour, thought the overall lead is different. A six point Tory lead would represent a small swing towards Labour, a twelve point Tory lead would still give them a stonking great majority.

The key difference between polls showing large and small leads is, as I wrote at the weekend down to how pollsters are treating turnout. There are lots of differences between different polling companies methods: they sample differently, weight by different things, do different things with don’t knows and so on. However, right now the one really huge difference is turnout. Weighted with all its normal demographic and political weights, ICM would have shown a Tory lead of only 3 points – that was transformed into a lead of 11 points by the turnout model, which predicts how likely respondents are to vote based on the estimates of turnout by age and class at the last election (the change from 11 to 12 points was the reallocation of don’t knows). That’s a big change, but given the errors in the polls in 2015 that may be necessary. On the other hand, if Jeremy Corbyn has managed to enthuse young people and there is a higher rate of turnout among younger voters than in 2015 then it risks understating Labour support. We shall find out next week…

1,134 Responses to “Latest ICM and Survation polls”

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  1. SurveyMonkey for the Sun

    Con 44 (-)
    Lab 38 (+2)
    LD 6 (-)
    UKIP 4 (-)

    No fieldwork dates or sample size information yet


    The reason the debt skyrocketed was because there was a collapse in economic activity and thus tax revenues due to the banking crash in 2008. On the flip side that also meant increased expenditure to those forced out of work by the crash as economic demand collapsed.

    But in truth the rise in gov debt was/is necessary. The household sector was and still is overleveraged with too much debt. Because of the way the economy works its not possible for the debt to just disappear and can only be transferred from sector to sector. Thus the gov needs to run a debt to provide the income for households to fix their broken balance sheet and take the debt on in their place. Of course Osborne has utterly screwed this process up by causing households to releverage upwards via further inflating the UK’s housing bubble, which has resulted in a foreign goods based consumption boom with resulting increases in debt we owe to our foreign creditors.

  3. Sun erroneously reporting that this would equal a CON majority of 46.

    In actual fact this poll would indicate a swing to LAB in England of approx 2%.


    “rub the Right’s nose in diversity”

    is a direct quote. And given what has happened since, its pretty obvious Labour intentionally did this.

    Thatcher could claim she made an economic decision to close unprofitable industries. What economic decision exists to flood your country with cheap low-skilled workers during a technology boom?

  5. Still closing! I might even start to believe this

  6. I’ve been looking through the YouGov model results for the NE England area.

    Their model seems to be showing that they expect Lab to locally pick up much higher proportions of UKIP than the national figures suggest. Intuitively this feels right as red UKIP would be likely to be a high proportion of the UKIP vote in old industrial areas.

    As a result they predict that Stockton South will be close (but still a Cons hold), and Darlington will be a comfortable win for Lab. My simpler model had James Wharton increasing his majority in Stockton South, and Darlington being a narrow Lab hold.

    The only prediction that differs in outcome from mine is Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland where they have a narrow Cons win to my narrow Lab hold. In reality we are both making a too close to call prediction.

    Edinburgh West is interesting – there are very wide confidence bands on the Lib Dem vote. In effect, it looks like the model “knows” about the uncertainty of tactical voting

  7. @hireton:

    What Neather said at the time was crystal clear. What was remarkable was that he didn’t realise at the time how indiscreet he was being.


    FYI the taking on debt of the gov was and is necessary. Households have too much debt and because of the way the system works it cannot just disappear. It has to be paid down but given that new money is created via debt (all money is borrowed into existence) the practical result is that if overleveraged households are to pay down their levels of debt gov debt levels must rise to provide them the income to do so.

    What really matters is not the level of gov debt but the combined levels of gov+household, and that is continuing to rise because we run a continual trade deficit. In other words we continue to borrow from other nations. In practice that means the only choice the gov has is in deciding which part of the economy takes on the debt. Foolish Osborne decided to con the public and convince them it was gov debt that mattered more than anything else and so inflated our already overinflated housing market as a means to get households to take on that debt or at least as much of it as possible.

    What really needs to happen is long term investment by both gov and the private sector to enable our trade deficit to correct so we nolonger owe ever more money to foreigners. Unfortunately the conservative party is inimical to government led investment or interfering the workings of the private sector so I don’t expect this to change anytime soon.

  9. Just seen a retweet from Lord Ashcroft quoting the range of estimates of Conservative majorities by Matthew Goodwin:

    Electoral Calculus 98
    Fisher et al. combined 100
    Nigel Marriott 109
    ComRes 100+
    Ashcroft Model 142
    YouGov Hung

    Somebody is going to be looking silly on June 9th.

  10. Smithy. Good luck next season. That is a great price for an ST.
    My Reading ST is £320 and my teenage son’s is £89. If we make the play offs ever again I will give them a swerve. Thats four play off final defeats and two semi final failures on top. Sick of them

    Latest Survey Monkey shows a six point Con lead.Con holding firm on 44%. Lab moving up to 38%. We really are back to two party politics.

  11. The media seems to be turning, Davis is being clobbered on channel 4

  12. @Peter Cairns

    “I remember coming away from some discussions with the clear sense that the policy was intended – even if this wasn’t its main purpose – to rub the Right’s nose in diversity and render their arguments out of date.”

    Using the above and given the choice between some mystical, unknown reason for admitting the world’s poorest migrants and a deliberate intent to diversify the country, the latter seems more likely.

  13. Does look like yougov is operating on a different planet looking at all those other figures.

  14. Electoral Calculus has continued its inexorable decline to 88 since then.


    Very silly indeed. Especially if YouGov has got it right!

  16. That tweet also conveniently ignores Survation and ORB.

  17. If Ukip or LibDems or Greens poll over 40% on June 8, the polls will all look very silly.
    As it is Tory lead in 40s, Labour closing but still in 30s. Margin of error broadly covers the picture.
    Ukip pulling out of nearly 250 seats to help Tory Leaver candidates will give Tories an edge.
    Needs SNP collapse to Labour to give Corbyn any chance other than respectable defeat.

  18. I don’t think the tories will worry about left wing channel 4 bias.. they are always like that. They are still sore cos that election expenses rubbish didn’t lead anywhere and they initiated it all.

  19. That was quite funny by Farron.

  20. Yeah its going to be a firing squad on May……

  21. Thanks Mike – very gracious of you

  22. Alexw

    Bit difficult to fire at someone who isn’t even there. I doubt she will be bothered. Probably sat watchIng BGT on itv

  23. This debate is not looking good for CON…but how many will watch?

  24. I don’t quite know why Farron gets such a bad press and accused of weak etc, I think he is pretty good. Best opening statement by far, I laughed out loud.

  25. @PHIL

    Oh she is there. Not in body perhaps but certainly in spirit.

    Her body absence just means she is not there to defend herself. Rudd will help but it won’t be the same. We can clearly see that on show right now.

  26. The balance on this debate is here for me;

    Rudd is already getting hammered by everybody and it’s hard to watch. But they need to be careful not to look like bullying in the end.

  27. Survey in from North Somerset. Warm, sunny evening, kids out playing. Not one single election board, poster or leaflet to be seen. Seriously. It’s like the election isn’t happening down here.

  28. Rich.

    Surprised Rudd is fronting tonight for Con. She has a relatively marginal seat. Surely Con had others who could have been handed the reigns tonignt?

  29. Oh dear God, this whole debate is cringe.. I personally think that TM has done well to stay out of it. They are all squabbling like children!!

  30. @Rich

    Criticism about policy is fine – that’s debate.

    As long as it does not get personal, something I suspect that will not happen.

    Play the ball not the person!

  31. To be clear I expect all the people debating to stick to policy only.

  32. Unfortunately for TM, it’s a bit hard to defend yourself at a debate you do not attend. Will be interesting to see what the headlines are at the end.

  33. Aaron
    That’s why these things don’t work. It meant to be a debate but it can’t be..I think JC dropped a clanger stooping to join in with this.

  34. Even as a lefty I’d have to say right-wing whining about audience bias might actually have a point here.

    Corbyn starting strongly, I think.

  35. @AARON

    What matters is not the debate but how it is portrayed in the media, and its certainly not going to be portrayed as children squabbling.

  36. Why do they have an audience for these debates? It’s ridiculously partisan. Actually, why do they have these debates at all?

  37. Actually, on a quick look, I think Phil has a point. The audience are clearly on JC’s side, but he should have given the whole thing a swerve, it’s shoddy and childish.

    Mind you, the only thing that matters is he turned up at the last minute. Check mate in today’s battle for headlines.

  38. @ Paul Croft

    Completely off topic, but since you mentioned guitars…

    I bought Richard Harvey’s Concerto Antico the other day, and I now can’t get enough of it. What’s your opinion? I feel I might be biased by my previous exposure to prog rock.

  39. @MIKE

    The audience is partisan but there’s really no way to positively *spin* the idea of removing people out of the UK.

  40. Trying to listen to the debate on the radio, can’t make out coherent sentences because of the crosstalk and applause/booing. :(

  41. I really think they should do this sort of thing without audiences or require them to be silent, as is done in the US presidential debates.

  42. Complete waste if f time. Smart move from TM to stay away. Been taken over by union activists. Yet again no audience vetting by the look of it or the BBC have deliberately let them in.

  43. This debate is really embarrassing to be honest. I doubt Theresa May is going to suffer much from not being there.

  44. I think it will benefit her. Staying above this sort of behavior.

  45. Having so many candidates in one discussion without a strong moderator is a mistake. No one comes out smelling of roses.

    It might be ok in a two-person debate (runoffs in France or post-primaries in USA) but more than that needs some kind of pass-the-mic system.

  46. @Edge of Seat

    They need a conch!


    Again the debate itself does not matter. Its tonight’s and tomorrows headlines.

    Now how do you think those headlines will play out?

  48. I have to say, I think my point earlier on may be correct.. This is turning into the other parties just squabbling among themselves and just underlying her Coalition Of Chaos theme.. She’s done well to dodge this bullet..

  49. Agreed Sam, the audience bias is clear, but, will not be the fault of pollsters or the media, people lie on who they support and why.

    Only way to sort that is like you say, to not allow any applause or booing, so much virtue signalling going on I may have to grab a bag.

  50. What should be happeñing here is that each politician should be given a certain amount of time to answer without interruption otherwise it descends into chaos.

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