Two new polls today:

Survation for Good Morning Britain this morning had topline figures of CON 43%(nc), LAB 37%(+3), LDEM 9%(nc), UKIP 4%(nc). Fieldwork was on Friday and Saturday and changes are from the previous week. Tabs are here.

ICM for the Guardian had topline figures of CON 45%(-1), LAB 33%(+1), LDEM 8%(nc), UKIP 5%(nc). Fieldwork was from Friday to Monday and changes are from the ICM/Sun on Sunday poll at the weekend. Tabs are here.

Both of today’s polls continue to show movement in Labour’s favour, thought the overall lead is different. A six point Tory lead would represent a small swing towards Labour, a twelve point Tory lead would still give them a stonking great majority.

The key difference between polls showing large and small leads is, as I wrote at the weekend down to how pollsters are treating turnout. There are lots of differences between different polling companies methods: they sample differently, weight by different things, do different things with don’t knows and so on. However, right now the one really huge difference is turnout. Weighted with all its normal demographic and political weights, ICM would have shown a Tory lead of only 3 points – that was transformed into a lead of 11 points by the turnout model, which predicts how likely respondents are to vote based on the estimates of turnout by age and class at the last election (the change from 11 to 12 points was the reallocation of don’t knows). That’s a big change, but given the errors in the polls in 2015 that may be necessary. On the other hand, if Jeremy Corbyn has managed to enthuse young people and there is a higher rate of turnout among younger voters than in 2015 then it risks understating Labour support. We shall find out next week…


1,134 Responses to “Latest ICM and Survation polls”

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  1. When comparing YouGov’s VI estimate under an MRP model using a 50000 pool and their poll of 2000 for a VI survey it is like comparing apples and oranges.

    One is used to try and predict the actions, based on probability, of every single voter in every single constituency, whereas the other is using a stratified group of individuals to give an VI of the parties as a whole.

    Both are as statistically valid as each other, but both can give different results. That is why I was using the 95% prediction interval for the YouGov MRP model and the 3% MoE for the normal polls.

  2. @Rich
    As in ‘a person who sows discord on the Internet’

  3. Debate due at 7.30pm. I wonder if the outcome will have any effect on the polls? I’m inclined to think not, not least because the 7-party format is a mess.

    I suspect the format would work *much* better as a 1-1 debate (especially now the Lib Dems are diminished), and I’d prefer they do that even if they can’t get the leaders to attend.

  4. Laura putting the boot into May on the BBC. Is the media starting to swing behind Corbyn again?

  5. Rob

    “the majority who are low-skilled”

    Most EU8 migrant workers do low skilled jobs, but 60% of them are graduates. Compare this to UK and EU 14 which is 20%.

  6. Sorry Rich – just spat my tea out laughing at your last comment… think there’s a sense of lack of self awareness here

  7. rich @robin,

    “Pot, kettle. why don’t you stop masquerading as an informed poster.
    As you know, I just read your last 10 posts and every one was why Yougov is right, Corbyn is right and May is awful….boring..”

    On a classical guitar site that I contributed to there was a function in which you could block posts by people that you found irritating.

    I always found it simpler just to not read their posts in the first place and I can recommend that idea to you.

    As a corollary it always saves you time in responding to them so it’s win/win.

  8. Expecting any more polls tonight anyone?

  9. ROB
    “But the British birth rate has been constant or even declining for a while, therefore the native British population don’t require new houses to be built. ”
    1.People are living longer – how is the (birth – death) rate going?
    2. How is the divorce rate (and breakup of unmarried partners) going?
    3. I seem to recall a lot of high rise flats being bulldozed. Have they been replaced?

  10. @ PAUL CROFT
    “Why is it that so many people here seem to be so exercised about the opinions of others?”

    Being a polling site, that’s what I would expect everyone to be interested in.

    Most people must have a reason for their interests. While some might be like those who love watching TV viewing figures every day (yes, forums exist for them, too) others will be partisan people/peeps who have a keen emotional investment in the result and want to see the “spoilers” in advance.

  11. @SSIMON

    The debate won’t have much effect. The narrative of it the media plays on the news and the next mornings papers will.

    There is really a few ways it can go.

    Corbyn bombs and that becomes the story for the next few days.

    The other left wing leaders gang up on Corbyn (unlikely in my view as they would prefer a hung parliament).

    The other left wing leaders cuddle up to Corbyn and attack May for not attending and that becomes the narrative.

    The other left wing leaders cuddle up to Corbyn and the conservatives are able to turn that into a coalition of chaos narrative.

    Corbyn does well and the lack of May raises his favorables and lowers hers.

    Rudd goes full attack dog on “nice man Corbyn” and that plays poorly with voters.

    These are the possibilities (or some combination thereof) I see at play.

  12. @Paul,

    Agreed, that would work, as I would prefer to read comments on the polls purely from non partisan posters, and am sure they would say the same to me, which is fair enough.

  13. JC campaigned today in Reading. Checked Yougov shows Reading East as toss up.

    Yesterday he was in Watford which shows Leans Conservative. Whether they have data showing these seats in play

  14. How are the respective models taking into account protest votes but within a safe seat?

    I suspect there maybe substantially more of them this election due to Tory remainers who are still angry at the result.

    Anecdotally friends who are under normal circumstances die in the wool Tories are going to vote labour as a protest vote. They were fierce remainers and are still very much smarting at the result.

    The catch is they are in a very safe Tory seat and therefore feel their actions are safe.

    My sister is also doing this in a very safe seat but voting Green for her protest vote.

    If the YouGov drills down too deeply into the data might this effect not underestimate the situation?

    I asked them if they would do the same in a marginal seat and they said absolutely not – they would mark the tory box.

    Is the Tory hard core remain vote responsible for throwing the picture?

  15. Alan

    I don’t exactly now what their inputs are, but when I played around with the software, it gave me the equivalent of between 4.5% and 6% MoE.

    But it is really not the purpose of the model (as you know). It is reducing systemic errors in the prediction model – but as it is always with such models, it may even introduce systemic errors. They try to improve their sample distribution, but they may introduce bias in this way.

    I mentioned earlier that in an epistemological sense it’s impossible to do both what the model aims at. In March I spent three hours on this with business professionals, but they just refused to accept it as they want both: precise prediction, and high probability of the prediction. It’s not a technological problem, it’s the problem of different questions.

  16. @Paul,

    Incidentally, can classical guitar discussion really get out of hand! lol.

    I also am very active on another forum nothing to do with politics and it’s incredibly cordial and friendly, really tight knit. Maybe it’s just the nature of politics…

  17. @peter cairns (snp)

    We didn’t give the banks £1trillion, we didn’t give them anything, they paid the government for guarantees which were never activated, this isn’t the kind of place where partisan spun will go unnoticed

  18. Not convinced that Corbyn doing the TV debate is a good idea.
    Yes it makes May look weak but, it could just be likely that Corbyn is doing it because those around him are so weak. Also there’s a good chance Corbyn will mess it up, he really isn’t that good (mind neither is May, Farron or Nuttal, possibly the 4 weakest leaders the political parties have ever had?)

  19. Smithy.No idea if any polls out tonight.
    Have you bought a Huddersfield ST for next season yet?.

  20. Had it bought a couple of weeks ago £200 bargain

  21. If he keeps his clothes on he should do okay.

  22. sorrel

    “@ PAUL CROFT
    “Why is it that so many people here seem to be so exercised about the opinions of others?”
    Being a polling site, that’s what I would expect everyone to be interested in.
    Most people must have a reason for their interests. While some might be like those who love watching TV viewing figures every day (yes, forums exist for them, too) others will be partisan people/peeps who have a keen emotional investment in the result and want to see the “spoilers” in advance.”

    I don’t understand your point. Mine was to simply question why it should matter to poster [a] that poster [b] – largely through different political affiliations which are not going to be changed by debate or argument – has a different viewpoint/”analysis” of polling.

    What that has to do with “spoilers” I don’t know and I just think people need to be a bit more laid back about it all.

    It won’t change opinions, it won’t change the result and it’s very, very boring to read – even when skipping through the posts at high speed.

  23. @Smithy
    If YouGov are doing daily polls now maybe that will mean we’ll get one at midnight? Or maybe not til tomorrow day time.

  24. I was a season ticket holder when Leeds won the title, the last ever First Division Championship. To think somewhere the size/catchment of Huddersfiel can have overtaken Leeds is really depressing, but I hugely wanted them to win the play off final.

  25. @DAVE @ROB

    The data I have seen suggests that ~2/3 of new housing demand comes from internal sources. It arises from a combination of longer life spans, increasing number of single adult households (both due to divorce, non-marriage, and elderly living alone), and changes in where people want to live due to economic growth/decline (e.g. more people want to live in SE and less in the welsh valleys). Only ~1/3 of demand actually comes from increased immigration despite the headline numbers because they largely live in high density households (6 poles to a house etc).

  26. @rob

    “We all know a senior Labour advisor admitted recently it was done intentionally to affect the ethnic makeup of the country.”

    I don’t know that. Could you link to the quote please?

    And are you talking about immigration from the EU? If so, how does that affect the ethnic composition of the country?

  27. REGGIESIDE

    You have got into a bad habit by quoting text without showing who posted it. Please show who your posts are in response to so that we can all read the whole post.

    BZ will do fine for any reply to me.

  28. The TV debate is causing a considerable stir – will be interesting to see how subsequent polls move.

    My prediction for tonight; Rudd will open by reminding the audience that Corbyn bayonetted Belgian babies during the First World War.

  29. @ AlexW

    Good summary.

    I expect the weakest showing to come from Farron and Wood, Corbyn will probably stumble and sound less fluid/blokey than he does in the chat-show type interviews.

    Nuttall will probably support Rudd and deflect a lot of the flack directed at her (and TM by proxy), while Sturgeon will come across as comfortable as usual and attempt to stand apart from the others.

    But you’re right, it’s the media narrative in the day(s) after that will determine any impact.

  30. rich

    “@Paul,
    Agreed, that would work, as I would prefer to read comments on the polls purely from non partisan posters, and am sure they would say the same to me, which is fair enough.”

    Bliemy !!!! I hadn’t realised you were partisan Rich !! You kept that quiet.

    Re Classical Guitar sites and dispute I was a serial offender.

    The difference was that I really do know what I am talking about on this subject and the misinformation, masquerading as “professional” advice, especially from players in the USA, was really detrimental to inexperienced players so I felt there really was a genuine need to intervene.

    Guitarists, unfortunately, often seem to assume that anyone who can play better than they can [which isn’t hard to do if you’re advising an inexperienced beginner] knows a lot more about technique and music than they do in reality.

  31. On a lighter note – just finished watching “A Very British Coup” and “Secret State” on C4 catch-up.
    Well worth watching again.

    Does anyone know if Chris Mullins managed to write his sequel.

    …he might have to get on with it pretty sharpish!!

  32. @ Smithy

    Can we have Nakhi back? You don’t need him now! And Hiwula. Congrats through gritted teeth by the way, well deserved.

    Wagner’s been seen over at VP a few times on a consultancy basis. Hope it rubs off!

  33. it’s Angus Robertson on the debate tonight not Nicola Sturgeon

  34. @ Paul Croft

    I try to play but it always sets our cats off in chorus mode!

  35. Thanks Bantams – really wanted you to beat Milwall as always had a soft spot for Bradford – look to be good shape for promotion next year

  36. Apparently the Yougov rolling report has an average of 75 responses per constituency. I cannot state this as fact as it is just what I was told but it occurs that it would only take a bias of 2-3 in that case in favour of Lab (which I think is possible given the online youth engagement) for it to be wildly inaccurate compared to the actual GE result.

    Will be interesting to see.

  37. @SSIMON

    I thought sturgeon was not attending tonight. Just checked – its Angus Robertson I have no idea on him so no idea how he will do.

    I agree on Farron and Wood doing poorly. They have past record on this.

    Caroline Lucas as usual will do well.

    About Corbyn do we have any examples of him being in this sort of format before?

  38. Laszlo

    Well the answer to that dilemma is “pay for more data”. I guess business professionals wouldn’t like that answer either. To rephrase what they want is that they want is to be 100% sure of lying inside a 1% Credible Interval. If I could do that, I wouldn’t be working for them (or anyone for that matter )

    They way to turn it on it’s head is to ask they what sort of size 95% Credible Interval they would like, and then calculate the size of sample which would allow for that, they almost certainly won’t like the answer though!

    Precision
    Reliability
    Price

    Pick 2 from 3.
    ———————————————————————————————————–

    If Yougov’s prediction interval is due to uncertainty in the model, it is interesting that this is vastly outweighing the errors due to sampling.

  39. Forever Unpolled,

    “We didn’t give the banks £1trillion, we didn’t give them anything, they paid the government for guarantees which were never activated”

    So what caused debt to rise from around 40% to gap to over 100% if it wasn’t the bank bail out?

    Peter.

  40. New SurveyMonkey poll

    Tory lead 6 Torys 44 Labour 38 Lib Dems 6

    Huge sample were close in 2015 but not part of the polling council

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3692220/theresa-mays-poll-lead-tightens-to-six-points-but-she-remains-on-course-to-win-election-sun-survey-reveals/

    Are we due a YouGov poll tonight?

  41. Reports on Twiiter that Panelbase are saying that their poll to be published tomorrow will.show a further reduction in the Tory lead.

  42. @HIRETON

    Given the context I believe he was referring to non-EU immigration 1997+

    “The huge increases in migrants over the last decade were partly due to a politically motivated attempt by ministers to radically change the country and “rub the Right’s nose in diversity”, according to Andrew Neather, a former adviser to Tony Blair, Jack Straw and David Blunkett.

    He said Labour’s relaxation of controls was a deliberate plan to “open up the UK to mass migration” but that ministers were nervous and reluctant to discuss such a move publicly for fear it would alienate its “core working class vote”.”

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/law-and-order/6418456/Labour-wanted-mass-immigration-to-make-UK-more-multicultural-says-former-adviser.html

  43. % who trust CON / LAB on…

    NHS: 21 / 34
    Economy: 33 / 23
    Brexit: 36 / 16
    Security: 34 / 16
    Immigration: 25 / 19

    (via @TNS_UK)

    Some of the figures are awful for the Tories. Only 25/19 on immigration?? I suppose it’s a case of not knowing what to do vs not wanting to anything… 33/23 on the economy against Corbyn??

    Btw It was Andrew Neather who wrote in a very matter of fact way in the Standard about eight or nine years ago that Labour had pushed immigration up because they wanted more Labour voters and more diversity. He said such attitudes were just taken as obvious high up in the party. The article itself was about how Labour needed to be honest to win the debate on immigration – he did not even oppose the results of the policies only the sneakiness.

    I read it and the time and it was every bit as awful as it has often been recounted. He clearly did not understand that he was saying anything that wasn’t common knowledge, the tone was so matter of fact and his real appeal was for an honest defence of immigration.

  44. interesting looking the bookies odds for some seats you gov have for Labour so the bookies don’t see these in play
    Reading East – Toss up you gov – 10-1 odds
    Hastings & Rye Leaning Labour – 12-1 odds
    Croydon Central – Leaning Labour 3-1 odds
    ipswich – likely labour – 10 -1 odds
    South Swindon Tossup 16-1 odds

  45. @PETER CAIRNS (SNP)

    How about Gordon Brown pumping the deficit up to £168billion per annum (fy 2009/10 value) to try and buy growth to win the election. More than 10% of UK gdp was borrowed money.

  46. MIKEB

    @”My prediction for tonight; Rudd will open by reminding the audience that Corbyn bayonetted Belgian babies during the First World War.”

    ….then Corbyn will respond that Tories bayonette British babies-now.

  47. @Rob

    “Neather objected to this exaggeration of his comments. “Multiculturalism was not the primary point of the report or the speech”, he clarified in a follow-up published three days after his original article. “The main goal was to allow in more migrant workers at a point when – hard as it is to imagine now – the booming economy was running up against skills shortages. But my sense from several discussions was there was also a subsidiary political purpose to it – boosting diversity and undermining the Right’s opposition to multiculturalism.”
    “Somehow this has become distorted by excitable Right-wing newspaper columnists into being a ‘plot’ to make Britain multicultural”, he said. “There was no plot. I’ve worked closely with [Barbara] Roche and Jack Straw and they are both decent, honourable people whom I respect (not something I’d say for many politicians).”

  48. I wonder about the merits of Internet polling. A significant percentage of voters don’t have access or aren’t IT confident. Similarly, phone polls – it’s very easy to not asswer due to modern technology.

    In recent elections, by far the most accurate polls are the Exit Polls – i.e. Canvassing votors who have actually voted, rather than trying to factor in those who may or may not vote.

  49. Rob,

    He also said this;

    “I remember coming away from some discussions with the clear sense that the policy was intended – even if this wasn’t its main purpose – to rub the Right’s nose in diversity and render their arguments out of date.”

    So what you are portraying as Labour policy, is in fact one former and not senior advisors personal opinion of a possible motivation from reading early drafts of a paper while preparing a speech.

    That’s not a smoking gun, it’s not even a smoking fag.

    Still what do you expect from a DT article other than spinning anything they can find not an anti EU/Labour conspiracy.

    Peter.

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