Two new polls today:

Survation for Good Morning Britain this morning had topline figures of CON 43%(nc), LAB 37%(+3), LDEM 9%(nc), UKIP 4%(nc). Fieldwork was on Friday and Saturday and changes are from the previous week. Tabs are here.

ICM for the Guardian had topline figures of CON 45%(-1), LAB 33%(+1), LDEM 8%(nc), UKIP 5%(nc). Fieldwork was from Friday to Monday and changes are from the ICM/Sun on Sunday poll at the weekend. Tabs are here.

Both of today’s polls continue to show movement in Labour’s favour, thought the overall lead is different. A six point Tory lead would represent a small swing towards Labour, a twelve point Tory lead would still give them a stonking great majority.

The key difference between polls showing large and small leads is, as I wrote at the weekend down to how pollsters are treating turnout. There are lots of differences between different polling companies methods: they sample differently, weight by different things, do different things with don’t knows and so on. However, right now the one really huge difference is turnout. Weighted with all its normal demographic and political weights, ICM would have shown a Tory lead of only 3 points – that was transformed into a lead of 11 points by the turnout model, which predicts how likely respondents are to vote based on the estimates of turnout by age and class at the last election (the change from 11 to 12 points was the reallocation of don’t knows). That’s a big change, but given the errors in the polls in 2015 that may be necessary. On the other hand, if Jeremy Corbyn has managed to enthuse young people and there is a higher rate of turnout among younger voters than in 2015 then it risks understating Labour support. We shall find out next week…


1,134 Responses to “Latest ICM and Survation polls”

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  1. Unfortunately for Theresa May, “She ran way”, or similar is going to be tomorrows headline. Too many zingers against her on the last question.

  2. The itv one was a bit late added against ukip.. but nothing like this. Probably cos JC didn’t go do the militant left didn’t turn up either. No point. But this is ridiculous and just shows the sort of hangers on he’s got if he ever gets to Downing Street.

  3. @MIKE

    There should simply be no clapping or cheering allowed. Its just annoying.

  4. New thread guys, second call!

  5. Well that debate hasn’t changed my voting intentions. In fact, they all went down in my estimation, but none more so than the BBC. Clueless. In mitigation, looking at the BBC website, they have put up negative comments about the debate and the audience, which at least shows some honesty.

  6. Farron definitely the winner, by miles

  7. Has Amber Rudd got her iPad in front her!? She just quoted my last post “in the quiet of the polling booth…”

  8. According to the Guardian via the Sun, Amber Rudd’s Father died on Monday.

  9. Thank god its over. Off to find the election debate strong painkillers!

  10. “an audience which is about 90% Corbyn supporters.”

    Interesting that. I do not believe it is anything to do with deliberate BBC bias.

  11. I was about to write a post saying I didn’t agree with posters praising Farron, but after that last line I’m not so sure. Genuinely funny.

  12. That maybe the death of these things now. A total shambles and totally biased. That won’t cost TM any votes.. might even gain her some when people see how the others behave not t to mention Corbyns so called supporters. They belong in a zoo. I think this will backfire on
    JC big time. You wonder if he was tipped off about the audience which is wh he changed his mins so suddenly.

  13. The 7-way format just doesn’t work comfortably – too many opportunities for cross-talk. 3-way max, but preferably 2-way when an election is so clearly between 2 dominant parties as it is now.

  14. I do think the solution is to simply have no audience reaction allowed. I’m inclined to think the Conservatives will always be at a disadvantage even with a neutral audience (which I don’t believe tonight’s was) because their message is never going to elicit an excited response, even from their own supporters.

  15. @PHIL

    Again what matters is the clips played in the evening news and the headlines of tomorrow’s papers.

    I wish people would stop making partisan comments as if the debate itself changes VI, it doesn’t.

  16. AARON
    “Oh dear God, this whole debate is cringe.. I personally think that TM has done well to stay out of it. They are all squabbling like children!!”

    Maybe they’d like to join UKPR ?

  17. Wellytab

    And that’s why she didn’t attend.. she knows that and tonight proved her bang on. I bet she’s quite happy now.

  18. There’s also the age and demographic distribution thing to think of. The sorts of people who attend these types of events are young to middle aged and educated middle class. That’s always going to be labour territory.

  19. @PHIL

    How many times do you need to be told that the debate itself is irrelevant its tomorrows newspaper headlines and news clips that do?

  20. @RICH wrt Nutall: if the shoe fits…

  21. People so confident the debate changes nothing have a short memory. It gave Nick Clegg an almost overnight boost of 5-10 points. You’re not telling me that was just due to the headlines and news snippets.

  22. YouGov’s model has tightened on the VI to 41/38 but ironically predicted seat count for Tories is up 1 to 311, Labour down two at 255.

  23. PHIL – I don’t think not attending looks good either though. Rudd actually gave a pretty composed performance under heavy bombardment – if May could do the same I think that would be vastly preferable to the bad headlines she will get for not attending. But she can’t, she is a poor debater.

    I do think it’s a bit sneaky of Labour to throw Corbyn in at the last minute, but not sure voters will care.

  24. Nick Clegg’s boost was an unique event likely never again to be repeated. He was relatively unknown, spoke clearly and persuasively directly to the camera and audience, and Cameron and Brown both kept effectively deferring to him (‘I agree with Nick’).

    He thus came across as fresh and unburdened with baggage, and played himself as the honest outsider in touch with the common man in a 3-way contest in which he was more than equal to leading the country.

    No party leader will ever again allow themselves to be so easily played.

  25. @WELLYTAB

    There is word of mouth too, but I’m doubtful that many actually watch the debate so I can’t see how actual viewership can swing it by that much.

    With respect to Corbyn’s attendance I think most will see it as a sort of well played chess move so I doubt his change of heart on attending will have any negative effect on swing voters perceptions of him.

  26. The Cleggasm was a one of, I’m not saying that I expect the polls to move by 5-10%. But even a 1% swing is very meaningful in the current context (especially if the Yougov end of the polling is correct)

  27. TM delegated it, good call.

  28. Well, I thought the whole thing was dreadful, folks.
    I had made up my mind that I wasn’t going to watch any of these multi debates, because (as others have said), I just don’t think that format works – too many people, not enough time, questions get lost along the way, and it’s confusing. Tonight’s effort confirmed all my earlier beliefs.

    I don’t think it was particularly directed against any party in principle, so not prejudiced in that way, but the audience were someting else. If you can’t get a balanced group, at least get a polite one. This was like a poor episode of Top Gear. The BBC need to get a grip, or better still drop this.

    I don’t think it will have damaged most of the participants, or those who were not there – Nicola Sturgeon, as well as Theresa May. For my money, I didn’t think Tim Farron came over particularly well. The jibes and ‘funnies’ felt a little cheap to me, and not very professional. A criticism of how the individual behaved, not of the individual (or party). Otherwise they were all on script – when not squabbling!

  29. Well, I sat through the whole thing and quite enjoyed it. Corbyn I thought was quite strained and subdued. Farron better than expected, but lacking gravitas. For me, Lucas and Robertson were the most effective. Lucas was clear, passionate and coherent. Robertson was composed, calm and made good points. Nuttall too ranty, and Rudd too much of a cold fish. Oh, and Leanne Wood was rather sweet, if that’s not too condescending. (Actually, of course it’s too condescending. I was impressed that she made the case for Wales, effectively conveying that it’s overlooked by the UK. And she got in a telling point about the contrast between Corbyn’s fine words and what his party actually delvers in Wales).

    The audience was supposed to have been selected by polling companies to be representative both on party allegiance and Brexit vote. So was it unrepresentative, or was its reaction a genuine response to what was said? I don’t know.

  30. What would you give the Tory campaign out of 10 so far?

  31. People do like Corbyn and the Labour manifesto, but there has been very little written about how damaging it would be for the UK economy which is already a trillion quid in debt.
    Lets just add to that by clearing student debt, nationalising everything and paying more to everybody.
    Inflation will become rampant, we will spend more servicing the debt and interest rates back to 5%…Nice
    Read the small print in the Lab manifesto folks, then decide if you want to make yourselves poor again.

  32. The London poll would match the election model

    The London poll must be why Battersea, kensington, Finchley, Cities of London & Westminster showing close

  33. 7 point swing in a week from PanelBase.
    Britain Elects @britainelects
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 44% (-4)
    LAB: 36% (+3)
    LDEM: 7% (-)
    UKIP: 5% (+1)
    GRN: 3% (+1)

    (via PanelbaseMD / 26 May – 01 Jun)

  34. I posted – it appeared – now vanished? Funny, nothing partisan or rude therein – I wonder why Anthony?

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