Saturday night polls

We should have a truckload of polls tonight. There is a new Opinium, a new ComRes for the Indy & Sunday Mirror, YouGov for the Sunday Times, probably an ORB and perhaps an ICM for the Sun on Sunday. I’ve seen rumours of Survation too (they normally poll for the Mail on Sunday) and we’re overdue a Panelbase poll. The thing to look for is whether polls continue to show a narrowing of the Conservative lead – keep an eye on the fieldwork dates, more recent polls could be showing an impact from reactions to the bombing (or, indeed, the effects of the dementia tax row fading). Also remember the house effects I wrote about earlier – ICM and ComRes tend to show larger Tory leads anyway, so even if they show a significant movement towards Labour it may still leave the Tories with a good lead.

The first poll we actually have figures for is Opinium, who have topline figures of CON 45%(-1), LAB 35%(+2), LDEM 7%(-1), UKIP 5%(nc). Changes are from the previous week and fieldwork was on Tuesday and Wednesday, so just after the Manchester bombing but before political campaigning had resumed. We have movement towards Labour, but the Conservatives still managing to cling onto a double-digit lead. Tabs are here.

ComRes for the Sunday Mirror and Independent have topline figures of CON 46%(-2), LAB 34%(+4), LDEM 8%(-2), UKIP 5%(nc). Changes are from a fortnight ago, and fieldwork was between Wednesday and Friday. The Tory lead has dropped by six points, but ComRes tends to give the Conservatives some of their better figures, so this still leaves them with a twelve point lead. Tabs are here.

ORB for the Telegraph have topline figures of CON 44%(-2), LAB 38%(+4), LDEM 7%(nc), UKIP 5%(-2). Changes are from a week ago and fieldwork was Wednesday to Thursday. Once again, we have a narrowing of the Tory lead, in this case down to six points.

YouGov for the Sunday Times have topline figures of CON 43%(nc), LAB 36%(-2), LDEM 9%(-1), UKIP 4%(nc). Changes are from the Times poll earlier in the week and fieldwork was Thursday to Friday. This is the most recent of the polls we’ve seen so far tonight, and it has Labour falling back a bit from the YouGov poll in the week. That said, it is only one poll, so don’t read too much into that unless we see other polls showing a similar pattern.

ICM for the Sun on Sunday has toplines of CON 46%(-1), LAB 32%(-1), LDEM 8%(-1), UKIP 5%(+1). Fieldwork was on Wednesday to Friday, and changes are since the ICM/Guardian poll conducted over last weekend. Changes here seem quite steady (ICM’s previous poll already showed a sharp narrowing of the lead). As I said earlier, ICM and ComRes tend to show the largest Tory leads because of their demographic based turnout model.

I’ll update this post through the evening as other polls appear.

1,864 Responses to “Saturday night polls”

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  1. As I live in France, the brexit deal is of prime importance to me but as my income comes mostly from the UK, the state of the UK economy is also important.

    In terms of Brexit I see three possibilities depending on the election outcome.

    1, Conservative majority above 50 = sensible brexit. The EU know that May can’t be knocked back by the zealots and thus agree to a sensible compromise on market access, immigration and exit bill with the EU court only being involved in matters of EU law interpretation.

    2, Very small Conservative majority = no deal, or second referendum with worse EU membership terms on offer. The EU know that May is in a weak position and offer nothing in the belief that the UK will have to ‘re- join. Not a good outcome.

    3, Hung parliament with Corbyn as prime minister = semi brexit. We have market membership but also EU immigration rules and EU court jurisdiction. We continue to pay in but no longer receive EU payments back. We have no say in EU decisions but are bound by them and UKIP are back on the march.

    Of course only one of these scenarios can be tested in practice.

  2. @Tony Dean

    That’s what I noticed last night, one third of the audience cheering the “no deal is better than a bad deal” very enthusiastically and another third with a really horrified look on their faces. That leaves a third that are like me, it’s just a sound bite which means nothing

  3. A major problem with any effort to use the “no deal” line against May is that

    1. Corbyn effectively supports a hard Brexit as well by calling repeatedly for the end of freedom of movement. Yes he wants to stay in the Common Market but you cannot do that without freedom of movement

    2. Any effort to use the “soft Brexit” line against May would require Labour clarifying whether it prefers the Common Market to controlling immigration. Choosing the former will do enormous damage to Labour among the UKIP voters it has clawed back with the debate over manifestos. Choosing the latter would split the party between MPs and the leadership.

    Labour has far more to lose on Brexit because any discussion of Brexit will restart the internal party civil war.

  4. Corbyn and Abbott will prevent Labour climbing higher. This is despite having some very popular policies such as renationalising rail (and they should add British Airways), stopping zero hour contracts for the unwilling to have them, etc
    The Tories will win because of Brexit and despite Theresa May. The mood to replace her as leader is sky high among activists and MPs. Just takes 15% of MPs to write to the Chief Whip for automatic secret ballot vote of no confidence.
    Only needs around 50 MPs and it seems they have their letters ready.
    Farron fighting for his party’s continued existence and in important battle with Ukip or third place in vote share and future ofcom TV and Radio media guaranteed coverage. Ukip will need to massively outperform LibDems where they are actually standing because they have pulled out of seats which yielded over 1 million votes in 2015 to help Tory Leave supporters.

  5. Back in moderation. Cruel. :-(

  6. Wear it as a badge of pride Rich :)

  7. Well overdue Rich if you ask me

  8. And I’m breathing a sigh of relief at the drop off in the number of highly partisan comments being made.

  9. I wasn’t my mistake.

    And @smithy, nearly every one of your posts is left biased so isn’t that a bit rich!

  10. There are plenty of partisan comments from both sides Alex.

  11. Anyway. What polls are tonight?

  12. I’ll be careful, it’s my own fault for rising to other sly comments!

  13. Jeremy Corbyn coming across pretty well on The One Show. A good format for him, I think.

  14. any poll tonight?

  15. James Brokenshire, Secy for State at NI has launched the Conservative manifesto across the water. He has declared, regarding the prospects of a Unity referendum:” I remain satisfied on the basis of all reliable indicators of the continued support for the devolved administration, the principles and the structures and institutions that are underpinned within the Belfast Agreement (1998) and its successors, and I am very clear that the requirements for a border poll are not remotely satisfied,” he said.”

    This stance did not find favour with Brian Walker (former BBC journalist and manager) blogging at Slugger’s. He said: ” Will Brokenshire favour us with an explanation of why he thinks the requirements are not “remotely satisfied” and state his criteria for satisfying them, as a properly accountable minister should?

    He has to demonstrate better than stating the negative that he is able to reconcile his instincts as a conservative and unionist politician supporting a party that won 0.3% share and 2,399 votes in the March Assembly election, with the duty of a British minister to administer all aspects of the GFA impartially as the law requires, including fulfilling his obligations to his Irish partners. No decision requires more fair mindedness and diplomatic skill than this. I’m not at all convinced that the outspoken Leo Varadkar will be satisfied, if this is all we get.”

    The comments section of Walker’s blog is, so far, mostly nationalist in tone. The first one gives a flavour.
    “The broader and more fundamental question is how NI will adapt to the increasing weight of Nationalism within the six counties over the next two decades. Nationalists are going to continue to flex their muscles over time in various ways.

    A potential complication is that thanks to the DUP’s “gatekeeper” stalling, Nationalists have started to move past “equality” and are thinking more in terms of a UI. This is was the same pattern as you saw in the 19th century: by the time London had eventually answered the Irish Question, the Irish had changed the question.

    For Unionists, NI will feel increasingly claustrophobic and prison-like. It’s as if Carson and Craig locked everyone in a cage with a baby crocodile, and now it’s reached adolescence, taking more and more space for itself every year as it grows. Hence the recent complaints over SF becoming active in “Unionist Towns”.

  16. @bob

    True. But you will have to admit Rich is one of the most extreme and most frequent of the partisan posters. I have been reading this site for the past few weeks before finally deciding to take part and its just annoying.

    Its true that a lot of election related topics can’t help but be partisan to some extent, because we see them through the prism of our own bias, but there is no need to knowingly and purposefully push CCHQ lines or similar. I’ll also add that the same holds true for narratives of the left.

  17. Are any of these polls factoring in the ‘shy tories’ who come out of the woodwork at pretty much every general election?

  18. Lab have still not decided on who will take part tomorrow in the leaders debate. Apparently its between Thornberry and Corbyn with the decision to be made on Weds morning.

    If Corbyn takes part what are your thoughts? How do you think it will play out? Will it harm May that she won’t be there and Corbyn would be? Particularly if he does well?

  19. Rich – care to point out a partisan post from myself please rather than the childish “you do it, so I do it” which is likely to be exactly what Antony wants to avoid IMO

  20. ‘Back in moderation ‘ What does that mean?

  21. I think if Corbyn does the debate and performs well it could be very good for him if people actually watch it but I suspect they won’t and that most people have already made up their minds by now. But I think he could take votes from Green, UKIP and Lib-dems.

  22. alexw

    I would say it opens Corbyn up to a great deal of risk, and that Miliband taking part in the last BBC debate and according to polls “winning it” made very little difference to his VI.

    Its on Up against BGT, on a school holiday, Why do it?

    He’s doing Question Time on Friday, just prepare for that, don’t give the Tories ammunition for Friday.

  23. “If Corbyn takes part what are your thoughts?”

    I think there are two potential downsides. Firstly he’s already said “no”, so that will look bad. Not sure how that will play out. Secondly, it could be he’s getting a bit exhausted (hence today’s blunder), and to appear in that state could go badly wrong for him.

    But otherwise I think he’s got everything to gain, and he needs another boost. I think it will look bad that May isn’t there, and those who haven’t been following all the many TV debates, but tune in just for this one, will find it rather puzzling. Rudd will probably put in a good performance, but it would look far from ‘strong and stable’ for May not to be there.

  24. Just to add, good tactic by Labour to hold back as it mean the Tories don’t quite know what they are up against.

  25. People just get passionate when a GE is called, I have been visiting this site since 2010 and it has always been this way, it will calm down after the election.

    I see plenty of partisan posts from the left (and from myself) but I just let them go, they really do not bother me, although that is not how AW wants this site to run so just because its ok with me does not mean its ok.

    This site is also overwhelmingly populated with people with left leaning views, whilst that is fine it can make those with different views feel like they have to make up that difference.

  26. @alexw

    My feeling is that it would benefit Labour to have JC do it. The more exposure he gets, the more good it seems to do him (mainly because even a bad performance is not as bad as a lot of the media interpreation of him). Also, it would make Theresa May’s absence very conspicuous and perhaps also seem cowardly. On the other hand, though, it might make it seem like JC doesn’t have any faith in his cabinet and is a ‘one man band’. So difficult to call.

  27. My last post was to Alexw…

  28. @ Trigguy

    I agree, if he does do it random people tuning in will wonder why May is not there and could conclude she is scared to debate him.

    I hope they put Diane Abbott in, but that’s just the Tory in me :)

  29. @VALERIE

    Its the naughty step of a blog.

  30. @rmj1:

    I would only add the possibility of a Labour govt being invited to collusive negotiations where EU standard operating procedure of meaningless, oversold compromises leading to second referendum.

    But their current position would be to exact a price. Loss of rebate would be the best case, end of all opt outs being the worst.

  31. If people replay the big TV debate last June on Leave versus Remain, then Amber Rudd has several big pro-Remain anti-Leave quotes which even Tim Farron can exploit.
    Brexit is the big Conservative card and yet again having an arch-Remainer going into bat for them seems bizarre.

  32. Blue Bob

    Didn’t Damage Cameron though did it?

    In fact you could argue due to the vast array of left leaning leaders Corbyn could have his vote split by increasing interest in the debate if he takes part.

    If I was the Campaign Manager I would say no, get Thornberry and talk about policy, which is Labours strong point apparently.

  33. Jonathan Stuart-Brown

    Equally, the Leave supporting Conservatives would be tasked with the £350 Million for NHS and all the old Vote Leave pledges.

    So I’d say there are equal risk either way, the best way to mitigate them it to put your best player up front, and I’d say Rudd is a strong Debate performer.

  34. @TerryP

    It would be amusing if on Weds morning Lab announce that Corbyn is attending and Cons suddenly change to having May attend too.

    In truth I really would like it if they both attended. It strikes me as taking the voters for granted if they don’t. If you are not willing to defend your plans and record in front of the public why should we give you our vote? You serve us, remember…

  35. @Blue Bob

    Corbyn does the debate and announces Abbot will not in his cabinet. Labour proceed on to a landslide win.

  36. alexw

    I Disagree. This is a Parliamentary system, its much more important that you are canvased by the local candidate.

    And anyway, they both have two big appearances this week. One with paxman and the other with OT. These big leaders debates lead to spewing out endless soundbites.

    The question and answer and Long interrogation interviews are much better at testing the leaders and exposing flaws. The debates are a thoroughly boring affair.

  37. Hawthorn: “my ideal outcome would be a hung parliament or a Conservative majority less than it is at the moment. Brexit will be nothing but trouble, and I want all the ordure to stick to the culprits.”

    Precisely. As the US saying has it: you break it, you own it. Every step along the Brexit way so far has a Tory label firmly pinned to it, and if that remains so, the judgement of history will be unequivocal.

    Sam: “For Unionists, NI will feel increasingly claustrophobic and prison-like. It’s as if Carson and Craig locked everyone in a cage with a baby crocodile, and now it’s reached adolescence, taking more and more space for itself every year as it grows.”

    A striking bit of imagery. It’s hard at the best of times to think yourself into the Unionist mindset, but I imagine it must feel pretty beleagured in there right now. Few of their countrymen in the ‘homeland’ give a damn; no-one in the rest of the world understands them; they are a diminishing minority in the island they live on; and quite soon they will be a minority in their own province. I wonder if we will start to see significant migration to Britain?

  38. That should be QT of course.

  39. I still think putting Corbyn up would be a mistake.

    It may come across desperate.
    He would be the target
    He looks tired

    I’m against measuring these for the potential gains – more about how the downside risks could be managed. The first could have a narrative, the third can be dealt with – but the second? Unless Labour is willing to completely change the campaign.

    One of the things on Monday was that Corbyn talked as the leader of the LP rather than as JC. As I can see tomorrow’s debate, there could have been a regression in that.

  40. Some thoughts, or questions perhaps, on the swing (or lack thereof). Of course the race has narrowed, with some pollsters showing a lead smaller than in the last election, but there have undeniably been enormous swings – Con are up somewhere in the region of 6-10 points on their 2015 result, Lab more like 4-7, that’s an enormous shift. As others have pointed out, we haven’t seen the main parties taking such a high share of the vote since something like 1970.

    What does this mean? Well, surely models based on UNS and only a couple of seats changing hands are bunkum. If this is back to a two-party election, then won’t we have a result like a two-party election? The last time we had that kind of situation, back before the Liberals were in double figures, 6 point leads on high turnouts were enough to deliver 100 seat majorities. Even a lead of a couple of points would produce a solid majority in double figures. Is there a good reason why we might not see the same kind of thing again?

  41. @LASZLO

    I don’ think Corbyn would be the target. The rest of the left leaning pack have no incentive to take him down and make it a conservative majority.

    The best outcome for them is a hung parliament and a coalition where they can push some of their priorities. Especially in light of the pledge of a constitutional convention in the lab manifesto and the door that opens to a PR voting system. Above and beyond anything else PR is the holy grail for the smaller parties. Additional seat wins are there to be squeezed and lost next time around, PR is for life.

  42. @Laszlo
    I agree with the factors you mentioned by I’d add a few that might balance them out:

    He will be the target anyway and by attending he has a chance to defend himself
    It allows him to attack May for not turning up
    Currently the polls show him behind – what’s he really got to lose?

    I imagine you are right though and he will take the “safer” option.

  43. AlexW

    Can you remember what happened to Milliband?

    None of them are interested in hing Parliament (ok, maybe the LibDems – since when have they become lefty?)

  44. Crystal Ball time again.

    Based on the latest polls I predict no seats change hands in NE England.

    Closest seats:

    1) Middlesborough South: Lab Hold (majority under 3%)

    2) Darlington: Lab Hold (majority under 5%)

    3) Bishop Aukland: Lab Hold (majority under 7%)

    Cons hold Berwick, Hexham, and Stockton South with increased majorities.

  45. Steven Wheeler

    Yes, convincing arguments.

  46. No sign of the BBC Election Call programmes this time whereby viewers and listeners can speak direct to leading politicians. . Is this the first time since 1983 that we have not had this?

  47. Bishop will be closer than Darlington imo Exile based on the candidates.

  48. Those first results from Middlesborough South are going to be huge, Could set the tone for the whole night.

    Very much like in the EU REF.

  49. It happens I didnt catch womans hour today, but listened to the clip from it on the evening radio. They stated that conservatives had described it as a car crash. Corbyn didnt have his figure handy for the cost of child care, but really the interviewer jumped in and suggested this was an example of why labour could not be trusted with the nations finances. On the news they said he had replied ‘a lot’, which rather made me laugh. Now someone who dislikes Corbyn might see this as rambling incompetence, but someone who does like him might see it as a very pushy interviewer drawing a highly unreasonable conclusion from someone trying to find the right briefing note to be helpfull.

    So i dont think it is going to persuade anyone who has already made up their mind, and quite which way it might persuaded anyone undecided isnt clear. They might decide they didnt like the interviewer!

    Anyone posting here should know better than to decribe it as a car crash, as some did above.

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