Saturday night polls

We should have a truckload of polls tonight. There is a new Opinium, a new ComRes for the Indy & Sunday Mirror, YouGov for the Sunday Times, probably an ORB and perhaps an ICM for the Sun on Sunday. I’ve seen rumours of Survation too (they normally poll for the Mail on Sunday) and we’re overdue a Panelbase poll. The thing to look for is whether polls continue to show a narrowing of the Conservative lead – keep an eye on the fieldwork dates, more recent polls could be showing an impact from reactions to the bombing (or, indeed, the effects of the dementia tax row fading). Also remember the house effects I wrote about earlier – ICM and ComRes tend to show larger Tory leads anyway, so even if they show a significant movement towards Labour it may still leave the Tories with a good lead.

The first poll we actually have figures for is Opinium, who have topline figures of CON 45%(-1), LAB 35%(+2), LDEM 7%(-1), UKIP 5%(nc). Changes are from the previous week and fieldwork was on Tuesday and Wednesday, so just after the Manchester bombing but before political campaigning had resumed. We have movement towards Labour, but the Conservatives still managing to cling onto a double-digit lead. Tabs are here.

ComRes for the Sunday Mirror and Independent have topline figures of CON 46%(-2), LAB 34%(+4), LDEM 8%(-2), UKIP 5%(nc). Changes are from a fortnight ago, and fieldwork was between Wednesday and Friday. The Tory lead has dropped by six points, but ComRes tends to give the Conservatives some of their better figures, so this still leaves them with a twelve point lead. Tabs are here.

ORB for the Telegraph have topline figures of CON 44%(-2), LAB 38%(+4), LDEM 7%(nc), UKIP 5%(-2). Changes are from a week ago and fieldwork was Wednesday to Thursday. Once again, we have a narrowing of the Tory lead, in this case down to six points.

YouGov for the Sunday Times have topline figures of CON 43%(nc), LAB 36%(-2), LDEM 9%(-1), UKIP 4%(nc). Changes are from the Times poll earlier in the week and fieldwork was Thursday to Friday. This is the most recent of the polls we’ve seen so far tonight, and it has Labour falling back a bit from the YouGov poll in the week. That said, it is only one poll, so don’t read too much into that unless we see other polls showing a similar pattern.

ICM for the Sun on Sunday has toplines of CON 46%(-1), LAB 32%(-1), LDEM 8%(-1), UKIP 5%(+1). Fieldwork was on Wednesday to Friday, and changes are since the ICM/Guardian poll conducted over last weekend. Changes here seem quite steady (ICM’s previous poll already showed a sharp narrowing of the lead). As I said earlier, ICM and ComRes tend to show the largest Tory leads because of their demographic based turnout model.

I’ll update this post through the evening as other polls appear.


1,864 Responses to “Saturday night polls”

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  1. @Patrick,

    I like Starmer. He is one of the very few in the shadow cabinet I can say this about!. I find him credible and he talks in a measured way and no gesture dog whistling whatsoever.

  2. Commentary on the 2015 UKIP vote movements showing in the ICM poll. The days of a 9:1 split in favour of Cons seem to be well in the past.

    Matthew Goodwin [email protected]

    A clear plurality of former Kippers (34%) are going Con, but the rest break evenly between Lab (20%), Ukip (20%), & “don’t know” (18%)

    4:44 PM – 30 May 2017

  3. @SMUDGE the cat

    Sorry but the chap made a partisan comment with respect to approving the abolishment of tuition fees.

    I just posed him some questions. I didn’t make a statement of fact like he did.

    Don’t be so sensitive.

  4. PM with Eddie Mair leading on Corbyn’s shambolic interview from earlier.

  5. After a very good few weeks campaigning Corbyn is looking tired. It could be the reason for a bad day today. Maybe he needs to have a break and recharge his batteries? Keir Starmer would be a good choice for the debate.

  6. Having spent some time door knocking of late I think if there is going to be a divergence between the polls and the outcome the election, it will be because labour does not get its vote out.

    I have never in previous elections seen such a reluctance of traditional labour voters to vote. I am not sure whether this is being picked up in polls, or adjustment made to raw data, but I am staggered by the number of core labour voters implying they will stay at home this time.

    I am based in West Midlands and canvassing has been done in marginal. .

  7. Aberdeenangus
    It would be interesting to know where, consituency?

  8. Confused

    What was my partisan statement of fact? That abolishing tuition fees is an attractive sweetener from Labour? Is that in doubt?

    The only fact is Labour have promised drop tuition fees. Your reply consisted of variables, uncertainties, and suppositions.

  9. @MIKE

    Yes free tuition fees are absolutely in doubt as an attractive sweetener IF you look beyond the short term!

    And that was my point by posing the questions.

    But that’s clearly lost on you.

  10. Re Jim Jam, Smithy, Craig

    Individual pollster trends in the latest 5:
    ICM now have 14% and 12% gaps, from 14% before – stabilising?
    Survation has gap narrowing from 9% to 6%, but You Gov has gap widening from 5% to 7%
    ComRes biggest change, 18% down to 12%, but the 18% was two weeks ago.
    I have in mind that if the surge has petered out, it may have happened only over the last week or so.

  11. @Aberdeenangus

    Are you canvassing for a candidate or conducting a covert survey to find supporters? I used to find it made an enormous difference to attitudes. Covert canvassing for a mythical “Opinion Poll” gives a far better and more useful canvass return than flying the flag for one of the participants I used to find. Labour supporters sometimes regard it as rude to seem too keen to come out and vote against who you are knocking for, so I would be wary of how reluctant they may seem. You may be right, but after 45 years of knocking on doors I am always sceptical.

  12. Daniel

    Except when they get written off, they will pick up the tab a second time. It saddles young people with high payments, means the government still has to pay for universities in the short run, then has a black hole later on. It is a dog’s dinner.

  13. Confused

    Or perhaps the meaning of a sweetener is lost on you? Something offered as an incentive to take a certain action which you might otherwise reject? Whether you accept the sweetener is a subjective decision, that the offer has been made is an objective fact.

  14. Sooty the YG 5% was clearly inaccurate and just sample variation favouring Labour.
    A modest narrowing in the last week 10 days which may have petered out but the polls are registering that yet.

  15. Presumably another YouGov tonight? Don’t they move to nearly every day soon??

  16. I’d be interested to know how the various polls would look without the methodological changes since 2015. Has anyone looked at such a comparison?

    (Apologies for being dense, I am new to this whole polling malarky).

  17. As things stand, if Labour can get their vote out, the Tories will probably finish about 8 pts ahead; majority 50-70 (although given Brexit related volatility, I am reluctant to put much weight on the latter prediction). Perhaps C 43 – L 35.

    I think the young might have finally learnt their lesson from Brexit, they should be up for it. If not, I despair for the young of today (and I am not an old codger yet).

  18. Chrislane
    ‘The poll of polls published by John Rentoul suggests a 5% swing to the Cons from Lab since 2015- this would give the Tories on a uniform swing about 50 Tory gains from Lab’

    That poll of poll must be out of date because a 5% swing to Con from Lab would imply a Tory leadd of 16.6%. No pollster now gives them a lead greater than 12%. The average lead is probably closer to 8.5% which would represent a swing of just 1% since 2015. Moreover. it would suggest very little swing at all in England & Wales given the Tory surge in Scotland.

  19. As a disclaimer (and to help with anyone detecting bias), my ideal outcome would be a hung parliament or a Conservative majority less than it is at the moment. Brexit will be nothing but trouble, and I want all the ordure to stick to the culprits.

    Please note that is not my prediction of the result.

  20. There are some of the Blair inclined journalists who I rate to be honest. John Rentoul is not one of them.

  21. @ Helen
    No you are not being dense at all! I think that every election is exceptional in some way or another and am far from convinced that tweaking the methodology to get the right result for the last election does not necessarily get you anywhere closer to the result of an election to come. What I learned under Andy Ellis, Michael Key (probably the greatest canvass analyst in recent political history!) and Chris Rennard back in the 1980s at national campaigning analyst level is that momentum and dynamics of different electoral cohorts will very from election to election. Therefore it is vital to plot trajectory of each cohort of electors to give canvass analysis reports of any value to campaign managers. Opinion Polls do not do this – they establish pre-conceived treatment of cohorts and take a snapshot. In answer to your question, I have no idea as they do not make comparisons easy. I suspect we would be seeing the parties neck-and-neck?

  22. Hawthorn

    What makes you think the ordure will stick where it belongs?

  23. Sorry NOT very but VARY

  24. After 2015 I think we’d begun to anticipate a whole gamut of constituency, regional and national polling to discuss daily during the election campaign. Instead this time things have been rather sparse…

  25. @SSSimon

    Yes, I am noticing the same. There is a dearth of polling this time. I cannot remember comments getting close to 2000 in the week before polling! So much happening out there, and we havent got much more than anecdotal clues! Suspect the polling industry is being funded by fewer clients this time after the 2015 debacle?

  26. Sorbus

    Even Paul Dacre would have difficulties pinning a Brexit ordure-spinning object collision on to Labour.

    The Conservatives colours are firmily pinned to Brexit. That colour will turn to brown if it all goes wrong.

    If it does not, they are a shoo-in next time around whatever Labour does.

  27. iCM poll

    1. Labour static(same %as iCM poll before last)

    2. Tory shield wall unbroken and burnishing in the sun

    3. Perhaps Yougov,survation and Orb will make some technical adjustments to weighting to bring them into 10% territory. After all to be wrong in one election is careless….

  28. S Thomas

    I love your certainty.

    Perhaps you also know how easy it is to be wrong?

  29. @Patrick

    He does it all the time.

  30. @Hawthorn
    ‘As things stand, if Labour can get their vote out, the Tories will probably finish about 8 pts ahead; majority 50-70 (although given Brexit related volatility, I am reluctant to put much weight on the latter prediction). Perhaps C 43 – L 35.’

    But a 8% Tory lead in GB as a whole would imply almost no swing at all in England & Wales. Very few Labour seats would change hands with Tory gains largely coming from the SNP.

  31. @AlexW

    I am inclined to agree. However, what does polling show? I have seen no polling results for the now binary choice of Soft or Hard Brexit – I wonder why not? Presumably those who commission polls do not want that stark answer out there because it would make a nonsense of the May position which is founded on the internal dynamics of the Conservative Party rather than the balance between Hard and Soft within the population? If such a poll were conducted I would suspect it to come out 65/35 Soft/Hard

  32. S Thomas.

    1. Cons have lost 2 points from the last ICM poll.

    2. The trend is obvious if you plot all of the poll results – the cons vote has been trending steadily downwards for the last two weeks. They are losing voter share. Some soft lab/cons voters are going back to labour.

    https://ig.ft.com/elections/uk/2017/polls/

    3. Why is it that the Yougov/Orb/Sur are wrong? Please share with us your non-anecdotal evidence that proves this so I can pass it onto the polling companies.

  33. @MIke

    But it was you that decided to define the sweetener of free tuition fees as “attractive”. That was your adjective. Therefore you made it partisan.

    A sweetener’s attractiveness or unattractiveness is in the eye of the beholder.

    I see the sweetener as a poisoned pill. It may be a sweetener but it isn’t attractive to me. Why? Because it has to be funded from somewhere else.

    And isn’t it a statement of fact that the labour manifesto is full of more tax, borrowing and spending commitments than the tories? Pointing out a fact is not being partisan.

    Back to the polls.

  34. @ Graham

    The vote retention (or non retention) in the ICM tables suggest that the UKIP bonus for Cons is fading away. Lab are picking up about 3 votes from UKIP for every 5 that Cons are gaining. This puts Lab in a much stronger position to hold on to seats in areas like North East England than looked likely earlier in the campaign.

    I haven’t analysed in detail, but if this poll turns out to be accurate, there won’t be many Cons gains in the NE.

  35. There will a good few.

  36. i believe there could be a turnaround for labour

  37. I have been following this site since 2010 and would like to think I have grasped a few fundamentals. But I have a problem,

    To me the Conservative VI is holding and the Labour party VI figures seem be fluctuating from one polling company to another.

    The Labour increase has been explained by an increase in DK and DNV now declaring their intention to vote for Labour. I also understand that neither DK and DNV usually do not vote in large numbers and are therefore regarded as not usually politcally engaged.

    However the Labour party’s VI figures appear to have increased since the announcement of the Labour manisfesto so the DK and DNV are now “engaged poltically”. I have a problem with this.It is said voting intentions are not usually affected by manifestos and also different polling companies seem to have different methodologies. But Labour VI figures have increased by 10 to 13 % and nothing seems to have changed with reference to the perception of Jeremy Corbyn’s profile and policies.

    I also understand (or at least it seems to me ) that Labour figures are “soft” . My problem is that I think (IMO) the figures for Labour are overstated. I have a feeling the election figures for Labour will return to 25 % to 30 %. History has revealed that when Labour expects a good result the result shows the optimism to be misplaced. I welcome any constructive feedback or to point out if I am incorrect in my thinking.

    For the record I have voted Labour since 1979 but this time I will not be voting Labour.

  38. @Tony

    The hard brexiteers are sure to be a minority of the population. My guess is its somewhere between 25-35%, and the no exit and soft exit make up the remainder.

    This is why I think May made a mistake last night with her “No deal is better than a bad deal line”. That only resonates with a substantial minority of the population. Somewhere around 2/3, perhaps more, will hear that and be aghast. She should have done what she has generally been doing, and kept her answers woolly enough that both soft/hard brexiteers could interpret her answers in their own preferred way.

    So if team Corbyn is smart they will pick up on this and chip away at May with it. Force her further into the hard brexit corner and by default pick up soft brexit conservative voters. That’s a winning strategy for them and a losing one for may.

  39. @Redpoll

    PM with Eddie Mair leading on Corbyn’s shambolic interview from earlier.

    Funny that.

    I listened to PM tonight and it led with the Manchester charity gig.

    Maybe PM where you live is different.

  40. The ICM poll was before last nights TV debate which was regarded as close in terms of winning the debate, JC”s Gaff on the radio and the announcement of the Labour Garden Tax…

    Conservatives have dropped 2%, Labour have stood still..

    Hard to see how a lots going to change in the next few days ?

    Labour need new momentum….

  41. @ S Thomas

    2. Tory shield wall unbroken and burnishing in the sun

    I cannot get the thought of Boris dressed up as a Spartan out of my head now :)

  42. Catmanjeff, redpoll,

    There was a fourish second clip at the start of the program of the JC interview, then the lead story was the concert.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b08rp30h#play

  43. @ Hawthorn

    “Brexit will be nothing but trouble, and I want all the ordure to stick to the culprits.”

    So the majority of British people who voted then?

  44. Thanks @TonyDean for that really interesting insight :)

  45. @Blue Bob

    We all know they’ll blame the politicians. It doesn’t matter if they voted for brexit they’ll still blame the politicians. Like it or not its never the voters fault and they never take responsibility for what their votes lead to.

    It’ll be “we were lied to”, “they made promises they knew they could not keep”, “they never told us the truth”, etc, etc.

    We can all see the excuses coming from a mile away. You know it too.

  46. Gap still closing on polls – but we need to see another YouGov – more than 7 widening less than 5 closing anything else your guess is as good as mine

  47. @ AlexW

    Very much agree, it’s always somebody else’s fault, as a nation we have got rather good at it.

  48. Bobinnorfolk

    “There will a good few.”

    I love these random collections of words with no clue what they relate to. They make me laugh every time.

  49. Will be interesting to see if Corbyns ‘gaffe’ has the reverse effect of drawing more attention to the free childcare policy…and potentially more votes.

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