Saturday night polls

We should have a truckload of polls tonight. There is a new Opinium, a new ComRes for the Indy & Sunday Mirror, YouGov for the Sunday Times, probably an ORB and perhaps an ICM for the Sun on Sunday. I’ve seen rumours of Survation too (they normally poll for the Mail on Sunday) and we’re overdue a Panelbase poll. The thing to look for is whether polls continue to show a narrowing of the Conservative lead – keep an eye on the fieldwork dates, more recent polls could be showing an impact from reactions to the bombing (or, indeed, the effects of the dementia tax row fading). Also remember the house effects I wrote about earlier – ICM and ComRes tend to show larger Tory leads anyway, so even if they show a significant movement towards Labour it may still leave the Tories with a good lead.

The first poll we actually have figures for is Opinium, who have topline figures of CON 45%(-1), LAB 35%(+2), LDEM 7%(-1), UKIP 5%(nc). Changes are from the previous week and fieldwork was on Tuesday and Wednesday, so just after the Manchester bombing but before political campaigning had resumed. We have movement towards Labour, but the Conservatives still managing to cling onto a double-digit lead. Tabs are here.

ComRes for the Sunday Mirror and Independent have topline figures of CON 46%(-2), LAB 34%(+4), LDEM 8%(-2), UKIP 5%(nc). Changes are from a fortnight ago, and fieldwork was between Wednesday and Friday. The Tory lead has dropped by six points, but ComRes tends to give the Conservatives some of their better figures, so this still leaves them with a twelve point lead. Tabs are here.

ORB for the Telegraph have topline figures of CON 44%(-2), LAB 38%(+4), LDEM 7%(nc), UKIP 5%(-2). Changes are from a week ago and fieldwork was Wednesday to Thursday. Once again, we have a narrowing of the Tory lead, in this case down to six points.

YouGov for the Sunday Times have topline figures of CON 43%(nc), LAB 36%(-2), LDEM 9%(-1), UKIP 4%(nc). Changes are from the Times poll earlier in the week and fieldwork was Thursday to Friday. This is the most recent of the polls we’ve seen so far tonight, and it has Labour falling back a bit from the YouGov poll in the week. That said, it is only one poll, so don’t read too much into that unless we see other polls showing a similar pattern.

ICM for the Sun on Sunday has toplines of CON 46%(-1), LAB 32%(-1), LDEM 8%(-1), UKIP 5%(+1). Fieldwork was on Wednesday to Friday, and changes are since the ICM/Guardian poll conducted over last weekend. Changes here seem quite steady (ICM’s previous poll already showed a sharp narrowing of the lead). As I said earlier, ICM and ComRes tend to show the largest Tory leads because of their demographic based turnout model.

I’ll update this post through the evening as other polls appear.


1,864 Responses to “Saturday night polls”

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  1. Anyway, Tories need to go after those Labour voters that don’t like Corbyn as PM but they feel so sure that he had no chance of becoming PM that they were willing to stick to their local Labour MP.

  2. Daniel, this boost in younger voter registrations is in addition to previous surges, so we might be seeing a return to pre 1996 voting patterns.

  3. @Robin “IMHO one of the strongest arguments I’ve seen for the view that Art50 cannot be revoked other than by the mechanism (unanimity) specified in Art50.”

    The unanimity bit is only to extend the talks beyond the two-year time period. There is no verbiage on revoking A50 and it is a legal grey area. Lord Kerr who drafted it, believes it could be revoked. I personally have my doubts.

  4. Phil, it might remind a fair number of Labour voters that they do not think their current leader is up to the job. The polls already suggest that Corbyn is not liked by some traditional Labour voters.

    I doubt that many would jump ship to the Tories but they could just stay at home on Election Day.

  5. Mike

    It is housing that is the biggie along with fees. Tuition fee repayments are the coup de grâce.

    I was in the first cohort to have tuition fees in 1998. I was not that bothered at the time, but I would have been if had been more had there been top-up fees, then £9000/year.

    When I was on about £25k, I was paying £100/month in repayments (okay, that was for maintenance but it makes no practical difference). This in effect was a marginal tax rate of 42% if Repayments, Income Tax and NICs were included. That was also with soft loans at very low interest.

    And they wonder why young graduates are rebellious!

  6. Confused,often young people rebel against their parents politics, as they seek to form their own ideas, sampling far and wide.

    This applies to all political shades equally I would expect.

  7. @ ANDY T

    Such as the owner of the SME from Manchester at yesterday’s debate who was tradition Labour but couldn’t vote for Corbyn/Labour this time due to the effects of 4 of his policies on his business/family.

    1. how many are like him in the country?
    2. how many of them would encourage their employees to vote one way or another knowing some of their jobs might be on the line?

  8. Hawthorn

    Yes of course, housing. The young can’t see how they’re ever going to afford to buy property, or rent anything reasonable, particularly in London and the South East.

    The tuition fees offer resonates not just with the young – I have two children going off to Uni in the next couple of years, and it’s is a massively attractive sweetener for this father anyway.

  9. Daniel

    He said his family voted Labour. He was obviously part of the Conservative one third of the audience.

  10. “BBC website: Online abuse directed at the BBC Woman’s Hour interviewer
    The caring left strikes again”

    I have seen a recent trend for any criticism, warranted or not, being branded as ‘abuse’. I have been following this closely on twitter (nerd that I am), and there is certainly passionate criticism but abuse? I don’t believe so. Just my opinion, obviously.

  11. The last 5 polls, by date of research, show 10.2% average Con/Lab gap. Con average 44.6%, Lab 34.4%

    The previous 5 polls had an average gap of 7.4%. Con average 43.6%, Lab 36.2%.

    Has the perceived Lab surge petered out, or even been reversed?

  12. Mike

    Tuition fees is a mess. They are both supposed to fund universities well, but then they argue that most people will get them written off.

    Massive time bomb in funding but long after the current politicos are snoozing away in their free care home (the House of Lords).

  13. Daniel, not sure many bosses would try to tell their employees how to vote, a bit Dickensian.

  14. @HAWTHORN

    Universities in Scotland where tuition is free for EU and Scottish students, prefer to fill their classrooms with English and Overseas students as they get more money per student that way. This really disadvantages Scottish students. Current system is fair to everybody be they rich or poor, everybody can go to university and will only pay once they have a good paying job.

  15. So, the 18-24s and their VI really are responsible for the tightening lead in the polls. Aside from whether they will actually vote, there are a couple of points here:

    – 20% of votes are postal votes and I suspect most have already been returned. With an older generation bias, a good Tory lead will already have been crystalised despite the dire manifesto launch
    – 18-24s are the most shy-Tory bracket of them all (totally concur with what you’re saying CONFUSED)
    – 18-24s most likely to vote are students in largely heavily Lab territory anyway, and not in places like Dewsbury, Wakefield, Bridgend etc where the UKIP collapse is handing it to Con.

    I think the polls are about right now but the swing won’t be uniform. Con lead of 9-10 and a majority of 100+ is still very much on the cards imho.

  16. Helen

    No, I’d class some of it as abuse. Shouting her down as a “Zionist shill” and calling into question her impartiality just because JC tripped up over an answer is disappointing.

  17. Sooty, possibly but maybe a case of accidental cherry picking.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cherry_picking

  18. @ Helen

    I am not on twitter so cannot check.

    To be fair all parties have idiots that follow them and you cannot control what they do so Corbyn cannot be blamed for that, what I cannot figure out is why people get so upset about what sort of questions are asked.
    It would be like me writing into the Daily Mirror everyday telling them how awful they are.

  19. The other thing about this s student vote is this s right there in the middle of uni exams. My son is at uni and he has an exam on Election Day itself. I don’t think his mind will be on racing to the polling station. Some may have done exams already and gone home.. it’s hard for any pollster to be sure how many of these will really vote or where they will vote

  20. ‘JC seems to be campaigning in Watford for some reason’

    It was the launch of the LP’s manifesto on race relations and the right to a nomadic way of life.

  21. Just happens 2 x ICM and a Cons Res in the last 5 Sooty and the previous batch had that YG 5% which was clearly favourable too Labour towards the edge of MOE

    Look at the trend by pollster all show a narrowing except YG ironically due to the 5% lead followed by 7%.

  22. “No, I’d class some of it as abuse. Shouting her down as a “Zionist shill” and calling into question her impartiality just because JC tripped up over an answer is disappointing.”

    Fair enough – that is abusive – I hadn’t seen that and totally see your point. That said, I do not think the majority of it falls into this camp. Journalists cannot be above criticism.

  23. Hawthorn – “It is a long time since the young have had much of a programme aimed at them.”

    Umm… 2010 general election and the LibDem pledges?

    I looked up Ipsos-Mori’s profile of the 2010 election:

    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2010

    Turnout was 44% for the 18-24’s

    And that cohort voted 30% Con, 31% Lab and 30% LibDem

  24. “It would be like me writing into the Daily Mirror everyday telling them how awful they are.”

    Or like Sun writers attacking teachers every day….

    More on topic:

    “Has the perceived Lab surge petered out, or even been reversed?”

    Yes, I already had the feeling that the gap had stabilised at (say) 8-10%. We can perhaps pin-point the surge on the manifesto launches and aftermath, but that effect has just about run it’s course. It’s going to need something big to change things again I feel.

  25. Sooty – those polls in last 5 were ones from companies tending to show higher con leads… general trends, indeed with these ones too, showing gap narrowing

  26. @Sooty

    Not seeing many polls having Labour go backwards, usually holding steady or advancing by a pp. It all depends on what pollsters are reporting (and their weighting) in a given week – some like YG are under 10 lead, some like ICM are above it.

  27. Something big? It would be exciting if JC decides he will do the leaders debate.

  28. Will, many Students use postal votes and postal voting starting before the Manchester atrocity when May’s stock was arguably at its’ lowest and the demetia tax high on the agenda.

    NB) I still think 10+ lead in the end and probably over 12%.

    I did think 15% but – well maybe I am letting sentiment and current polls rule my head like I did in 2015.

  29. Here is Ipsos-Mori’s profile for the 2015 general election:

    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2015

    Turnout for 18-24’s was 43%

    And they voted Con 27%, Lab 43%, LibDem 5%, UKIP 8%, Green 8%, Other 9%

  30. I think JC was likely to do the debate tomorrow until the car-crash this morning.

    Maybe he’ll send Tom Watson instead?

  31. One thing I have noticed over this election is that Labour seem to be capturing a lot of headlines in comparrison to other parties in general. It’s like they’re constantly banging pans to make as much noise as possible and not let any-one else get in their way….

    For example today – Labour are all over the news for their gaffe and event – yet in comparrison very little has been said about the SNP manifesto launch or the Conservatives Brexit speech…

    I don’t want to say there is a coverage bias in favour of Labour, but that’s the only way I can describe it..

  32. I doubt we will see Tom this side of next week . He’s fighting for his life in his own seat.. that’s why you aren’t seeing him even though he’s the deputy leader and should be very prominent.

  33. A common grumble / excuse for not voting amongst my son’s friendship group (18-24 age group in 2015) was “there is no point, it makes no difference”.

    They have just had a demonstration from the EU Ref that it can / does make a difference (in a way they didn’t like). I’m not hearing the line “there is no point, it makes no difference” any more.

    I do think we will see a significant uptick in participation from this age group in 2017, but not quite as much as some of the poll responses are suggesting.

  34. For labour it would be very positive if the deputy leader did the debates, it may be perceived as showing a more united labour.

    Or, it could be spun as JC hiding by non supporters.

  35. @Phil

    A couple of hours on prime time TV will do him far more good (and reach far more of his constituents) than a couple of hours door-knocking or at local hustings

  36. In this time of increased security tensions I feel that the two candidates for Home Secretary should be the ones debating.

  37. @jumbledup

    I agree and he has an easy going manner that might work on the night .. I just don’t see him showing though. It curious they aren’t saying who it is though. I would have thought whoever it is would need to be preparing for the next 24 hrs so they must know. Maybe McDonnell.. don’t think he’s been around today

  38. Never thought about Watson. The one member of the shadow cabinet not appointed by JC, doubt it some how, too many you tried to bring the leader down etc noise.

  39. Those profiles for hoe the young vote are ESTIMATES.

    Where is the hard data of actual votes?

    If there is an error in these polls when the soul searching begins it will be because they are massively overestimating the support of labour amongst the young.

    Maybe a pollster should ask the question to the 18-24 year olds:

    “Are you voting the same way ad your parents?” Yes/No

    That would be far more enlightening and remove and shy bias.

  40. I may be wrong, but I haven’t really seen May campaigning in marginal Con held seats (apart from Twickenham), that I think indicates that they are pretty certain that they can increase their vote share in those constituencies and are solidly focusing on gains. this suggests no panic with regards to recent polls

  41. Confused, are you confused about the rules of this board, that wasn’t a non-partisan comment was it?

  42. The other thing that influences people is the age they get their first job. Half the 18-24s will get their job at age 18, the other half at age 21.

    Your first payslip is the point when you get sticker shock at the amount of tax deducted – “how much are they taking?!!”.

    And it’s because when you get your first job offer you focus solely on the headline salary and have a mental idea of what you will get, and it’s a massive disappointment when you get less because tax. You get over it after a bit and start to think in terms of take-home pay, but I’d say the third of the 18-24 year olds who vote Tory are doing so because of the initial tax shock.

  43. @Phil

    He had a >25% maj. at the last election, polls are no longer reflecting a type of swing that’d defeat him.

  44. Wow,

    Check the abuse halfway down. Zionist sympathiser etc, really awful.

    https://inews.co.uk/essentials/emma-barnett-slams-abuse-corbyn-supporters-car-crash-bbc-womans-hour-interview/

    You can see why Labour are struggling to get 1 in 10 Jewish votes at the moment.

    On a serious note, can somebody explain why a section (not all) of the left seem to have a problem with Israel and Jewish people in general? As just about the only functioning liberal democracy in the region I find this beyond weird.

  45. ‘Your first payslip is the point when you get sticker shock at the amount of tax deducted – “how much are they taking?!!”.’

    Plus, as someone has already pointed out, student loan repayments.

    So when these people see their first pay-check, do they think ‘I hope those younger than me don’t have to go through this’, or rather ‘I had to pay tuition fees, so I don’t see why the next lot can’t too’?

  46. @Rich

    This isn’t a surprise it the type of person that follows JC around. Bit like the militant tendency mob that ruined labour in the 80s.. they were just like this. A few were in that audience last night, like the bloke swearing and the hecklers. The loony left is well and truly back if it ever went away.

  47. I hope it will be Starmer

    The “No deal better than bad deal” mantra needs to be challenged far more robustly than we have so far seen . The electorate may not yet be aware of some of the consequences of a no-deal Brexit.

    Labour shilly-shallied over their position, but presumably Starmer has worked out something vaguely consistent by now; if not that needs to be exposed. As an ex- Remainer, it would be good to see Amber Rudd justifying some of the Government’s more entrenched positions. And personally I would like to be quite sure that the Great British Public know what it is that they are wishing for.

    But I think it will be McDonnell.

  48. New thread new discipline soon hopefully.

  49. @MarkW

    “Many people dismiss all polls because they have never had it explained well how a sample of 1000 can represent millions.”

    ———–

    This is true, however polling companies tend to confound things with a range of different guesss at methodologies, by publishing polls soon after thus encouraging gaming of the system and increasing the likelihood polls aren’t just measuring but influencing, and on top by asking some comically dodgy questions.

    There was another one earlier… About Corbyn, which Candy dug out of the poll.

    Is Corbyn…

    “A statesman ahead of his time willing to take risks: 24%”

    “A dangerous threat to Britain’s national security: 29%”

    It’s not hard to see that while the first option starts off sounding positive, it then turns rather less so, suggesting he takes risks, especially unlikely to go down well given the issue at hand is security, not something too many may wish o take risks with.

    In other words, neither option is all that great. In contrast, Theresa’s question…

    “Is It is a good thing as she is prepared to listen to the public and correct her mistakes: 42%

    It is a bad thing as it makes her look unable to deliver strong and stable government: 30%

    Neither: 13%
    Don’t know: 15%”

    ….is a fairer contrast, and this is further telegraphed by the fact they actually felt able to offer one up as a good thing and the other a bad thing. With Corbyn, that’s harder to do if both options aren’t that great…

  50. Over at Slugger O’Toole’s a question (or three) is being raised.

    https://sluggerotoole.com/2017/05/30/straight-after-next-weeks-election-it-will-be-incumbent-on-the-british-government-to-spell-terms-

    “In their manifesto, the SDLP have now joined Sinn Fein in calling for a unity referendum, albeit on slightly different terms. Both are linking it to Brexit. If the combined nationalist share of vote next week reaches 40+% which is highly manageable, can a unity referendum or border poll, reasonably be denied? If so, what is reasonable? A 50% threshold would seem unreasonably high for our divided community. What then are the choices?”

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