Saturday night polls

We should have a truckload of polls tonight. There is a new Opinium, a new ComRes for the Indy & Sunday Mirror, YouGov for the Sunday Times, probably an ORB and perhaps an ICM for the Sun on Sunday. I’ve seen rumours of Survation too (they normally poll for the Mail on Sunday) and we’re overdue a Panelbase poll. The thing to look for is whether polls continue to show a narrowing of the Conservative lead – keep an eye on the fieldwork dates, more recent polls could be showing an impact from reactions to the bombing (or, indeed, the effects of the dementia tax row fading). Also remember the house effects I wrote about earlier – ICM and ComRes tend to show larger Tory leads anyway, so even if they show a significant movement towards Labour it may still leave the Tories with a good lead.

The first poll we actually have figures for is Opinium, who have topline figures of CON 45%(-1), LAB 35%(+2), LDEM 7%(-1), UKIP 5%(nc). Changes are from the previous week and fieldwork was on Tuesday and Wednesday, so just after the Manchester bombing but before political campaigning had resumed. We have movement towards Labour, but the Conservatives still managing to cling onto a double-digit lead. Tabs are here.

ComRes for the Sunday Mirror and Independent have topline figures of CON 46%(-2), LAB 34%(+4), LDEM 8%(-2), UKIP 5%(nc). Changes are from a fortnight ago, and fieldwork was between Wednesday and Friday. The Tory lead has dropped by six points, but ComRes tends to give the Conservatives some of their better figures, so this still leaves them with a twelve point lead. Tabs are here.

ORB for the Telegraph have topline figures of CON 44%(-2), LAB 38%(+4), LDEM 7%(nc), UKIP 5%(-2). Changes are from a week ago and fieldwork was Wednesday to Thursday. Once again, we have a narrowing of the Tory lead, in this case down to six points.

YouGov for the Sunday Times have topline figures of CON 43%(nc), LAB 36%(-2), LDEM 9%(-1), UKIP 4%(nc). Changes are from the Times poll earlier in the week and fieldwork was Thursday to Friday. This is the most recent of the polls we’ve seen so far tonight, and it has Labour falling back a bit from the YouGov poll in the week. That said, it is only one poll, so don’t read too much into that unless we see other polls showing a similar pattern.

ICM for the Sun on Sunday has toplines of CON 46%(-1), LAB 32%(-1), LDEM 8%(-1), UKIP 5%(+1). Fieldwork was on Wednesday to Friday, and changes are since the ICM/Guardian poll conducted over last weekend. Changes here seem quite steady (ICM’s previous poll already showed a sharp narrowing of the lead). As I said earlier, ICM and ComRes tend to show the largest Tory leads because of their demographic based turnout model.

I’ll update this post through the evening as other polls appear.


1,864 Responses to “Saturday night polls”

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  1. I don’t see the tories worrying about this one too much .. the key number is labour not going up at all .. the greens and ukip are the only ones showing an increase on last time.

  2. I think the panic will largely have subsided now for TM based on today’s polls – the gap seems to be large enough now that there will be a comfortable majority, even though it won’t be the landslide she was probably hoping for at the time she called it.

  3. Tigertanaka’s figures are the ones I’ve seen, as reported on Britain Elects

    12% Tory lead.

  4. We’re all reasonably clued up about the different pollsters and why they’re getting different results, but 90% of people must be seeing these huge differences between polls and thinking WTF?

  5. I have to say that I tend to agree with the scepticism about the Survation 18-24 response.

    However, that does not explain YouGov and ORB.

  6. Are there really 3 different ICM polls, all just released, or are people posting widely different figures for a laugh? ;-)

  7. Many people dismiss all polls because they have never had it explained well how a sample of 1000 can represent millions.

  8. Woops – just seen the comment from GARJ. Easily done mate!

  9. Interesting commentary from Martin Boon on methodological differences between pollsters.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/may/30/general-election-2017-may-corbyn-paxman-snp-manifesto-politics-live

  10. @phil
    @joseph32

    What I was trying to suggest is that Brexit may be fertile ground for Corbyn to attack May as much or more for May to attack him.

    Here are the links to polling I posted earlier today.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/general-election-poll-theresa-may-brexit-plans-latest-majority-want-it-spelled-out-a77606

    This suggests a strong desire among people of all parties to hear more from Mrs May about her Brexit proposals than has been given.

    http://neweconomics.org/2017/03/brexit-poll-control-crisis/

    Of those who feel they have little or no control over the things that matter most to them:

    · 42% are hopeful about Brexit (against 48% who are worried)
    · 51% own their own home (against 40% who rent)
    · 26% voted Conservative in 2015 (against 37% who voted Labour)

    http://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/would-you-trust-theresa-may-or-jeremy-corbyn-most-to-negotiate-the-best-brexit-deal-for-britain/?removed

    This poll shows small downward and upward trends for Mrs May and Mr Corbyn respectively.

    http://eureferendum.com/

    This is a link to this morning’s blog by Richard North. Mr North is a Leaver but agin the way it is being done. He does not pull punches.

    “The essence of his pitch, therefore, is that the EU would react with horror if the UK walked and immediately come back with an “attractive set of proposals”. But in the unlikely event that it did not, he – the great Roger Bootle – has a master plan that will make things alright.

    We need not detain ourselves further with his madness, other than remark that this is another fool obsessed with tariffs, a man who does not even begin to understand the impact of non-tariff barriers if we leave without a deal.”

  11. @Phil

    Most people, being non-partisan about it, will also consider other aspects, like actually being able to afford a ticket without booking months in advance, being able to get a seat, not needing a degree in network analysis to work out connections, not having ticket machines that hide the cheaper fares, not having to negotiate with three different companies who may not be necessarily eager to accept responsibility, if you have some lost property, feeling safer with more staff on trains and more besides…

    Balancing all the factors will possibly go some way toward explaining polling on the matter. That said, it’d be good if polling explored the reasons why…

  12. We know ICM and ComRes have harsher turnout filters than other pollsters and YG would probably be about 6% with the same data, who is right – we shall see possibly.

    YG had a 5% lead when the rest had 8-10 which was probably within moe but favouring Labour followed by a 7%.

    I think I am correct that every other pollster has shown a continued narrowing and YG have really as the 5% was out if kilter.

    Not major shifts but given house effects trend is all we can look at and I believe a continued if decelerated narrowing has occurred even since Manchester.

  13. Two election leaflets came to us in West Aberdeenshire & Kincards this morning, one Tory and one Labour, and conspicuously absent were the names Teresa May and Jeremy Corbyn.

    Not a single mention.

    The Tory leaflet has on each page a bold headline – Ruth Davidson`s Candidate, Andrew Bowie. The Labour leaflet does not even name Kezia Dugdale, but is by far the most informative about their candidate of all the items we have received this GE.

    The Labour leaflet is also well written in good English, as to be expected from a party largely made up of graduates in this constituency.

    There`s been nothing so far from the LibDems, and I have written them off as having any chance of winning WAK – no posters, cf. many for SNP and CONs

  14. Good Afternoon from somnolent and sunny Bournemouth, where all the leaflets have been delivered by the Parties.

    The poll of polls published by John Rentoul suggests a 5% swing to the Cons from Lab since 2015- this would give the Tories on a uniform swing about 50 Tory gains from Lab

  15. Regarding Martin Boon’s analysis, I can’t help but agree. Election after election, no matter what the circumstances and despite their enthusiasm, youngsters just do not turn up to vote.

    As an aside, does anybody know if there’s a class breakdown to the turnout among young voters? I would imagine there is a difference, but can’t recall ever seeing an analysis.

  16. Hawthorn

    If you buy an asset, future revenue streams are dependent on how well that asset is run.

    State owned businesses, history shows us, are rarely run efficiently.

  17. SSsimon, in 1992 66% of young people voted, the drop off is recent.

    http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/wpl/projects/voting/background/

  18. With regards to influencing voters and their intentions, I would think the mumsnet community is not one you with which you would like to cause negative ripples? Unfortunately, it appears that Mr Corbyn may have done just that. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jeremy-corbyn-mumsnet-webchat-avoid-tough-questions-fluffy-labour-leader-womans-hour-childcare-a7763406.html

  19. @ MarkW

    Very interesting link, thanks.

  20. I was suprised.

  21. MARKW

    “SSsimon, in 1992 66% of young people voted, the drop off is recent.”

    Is that 66% of young people or 66% of registered young people. on the last day before deadline, 34% of under 35% still hadn’t been registered to vote. Also, turnout at Brexit referendum from 18-24 group was 64% of those registered. Also don’t forget Brexit referendum had the highest turn-out in recent years. I don’t think GE2017 will improve on that.

  22. just a thought,we are all getting excited by the drop in the tory lead,which now seems to be leveling out now.Somewhere between 6 and 12 points,.

    In the end though,it really is just a matter of by how much the tories win by,40 -60 seats,is the lesser of the margin 60-100,the higher end.
    Either way May will get a big enough majority to get everything through without a problem and once the boundary changes kick in could cement the tories in power for another decade-job done
    Cameron would have bitten your hand off for a 6-10 point poll lead with an already working majority,.

  23. What’s most shocking, I think, is the massive difference between youth turnout in the UK versus *every* other OECD nation – even the USA. It’s extraordinary!

  24. Daniel, you need to register to vote. You can read the paper for any clarification you need, it isn’t behind an academic paywall.

  25. Chris so John Rentoul has a 16.5% lead on his poll of polls, how far back would that go as none have been above 15 in the last 2 weeks.

    Is it not a 5% increase on the 2015 GE lead so 2.5% swing?

  26. I don’t know where Rentoul gets his figures from. No polls for quite some time have suggested a 5% swing to the Tories.

  27. Not all young people go to university. Not all young people who voted, voted remain. Not all young people are interested in politics. . Not all young people know there is an election going on.

    The idea that 85% of young people have already voted is risible.

  28. @Joseph1832 “That means that the EU did not know want the risk of the ECJ ruling (for it) the wrong way. At the moment, they don’t want the UK to be able to revoke its A50 notice unilaterally. That could change. Obliging the court to answer could have been awkward.”

    Indeed. It would be most annoying to the EU for the UK to threaten to revoke A50 and immediately invoke again to extend talks and block any further integration until they got a deal, though the EU budget would still be getting funded.

  29. Phil: “I despair with these people who are desperate to waste billions and billions of tax payers money to renationalise these companies. Where do they think the money is coming from ? Maybe we should print it like they do in Zimbabwe.. is that what JC is planning ? Why would anyone want to go back to British Rail.. none stop strikes, filthy dirty trains that hardly ever ran on time.”

    Not what’s being proposed. Instead, it’s that as rail franchises expire, a state-owned company should be allowed to bid. So no nationalisation costs. For how it would work, see:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_Coast_(train_operating_company)

    The key point is:

    East Coast was a subsidiary of Directly Operated Railways, formed by the Department for Transport as an operator of last resort when National Express was refused further financial support to its National Express East Coast (NXEC) subsidiary and consequently lost its franchise.

    … The public performance measure (PPM) shows the percentage of trains which arrive at their terminating station on time. It combines figures for punctuality and reliability into a single performance measure. The moving annual average PPM for East Coast by the end of its franchise (P12 2014-14) was 88.2%.[24]
    Profitability

    East Coast paid back over £1 billion to the government over the course of its franchise.[25]

    I think the idea is that there’s no reason why a Train Operating Company owned by the British government shouldn’t do as a good a job as one owned by a foreign government. As someone pointed out, it’s a concrete example of Taking Back Control.

  30. It is a long time since the young have had much of a programme aimed at them.

    This election will be an interesting test. Brexit was likely decided by people who rarely vote.

    All a far cry from a year or two ago when the argument was that young people were turning conservative (small c).

  31. The difference in pollsters’ figures for Labour seems to be heavily dependent on how likely they consider it is that the younger age brackets will turn out. If you look at Yougov’s figures, for example, the 50+ brackets have been pretty stable in likelihood to vote and the percentage plumping for the Tories, the great bulk of Labour gains seems to come from a shift towards Labour and a greatly increased likelihood to vote among the younger brackets.

    For what it’s worth, my take is that the reality is somewhere in the middle of these polls, with ICM/Comres too pessimistic about younger voter turnout, and Yougov/Survation too optimistic. After all, in the final polls prior to the EU referendum there were similar numbers in the younger brackets stating that they were very likely to vote, nearly at the same levels as the 65+ cohort. In reality only 65% or so of younger voters participated, as against 90%+ of older ones. If those younger voters have learned their lessons and turn up at the ballot box then the result may be as close as Yougov thinks it will be, but I can’t see it happening.

  32. Poll bias

    I am constantly reading that the youth are heavily weighted to voting labour.

    Urban myth?

    I have huge reservations in believing this because young people tend to vote in the direction of their parents. The fact that more young people remain at home until they are much older on average now would strengthen this link in my opinion. Do 65% of children of tories really rebel and vote labour before they have even left home?

    Is this not another bias where polling which is even more skewed due to the shy tory syndrome?

    If middle age and older people are shy about “admitting” they vote tory I would bet strongly that this phenomenon is much greater the younger the age.

    It isn’t cool to be a tory – it’s hard to spot a high profile comedian who doesn’t regularly get on their self righteous soap box to mock the right – and actors/ popstars love to jump on the labour bandwagon.

    How have the pollsters removed this bias or do we all just believe the myth that if you are young you must be a labour supporter?

  33. Regarding the likelihood to vote is it possible that this is overstated because when people are questioned by pollsters they dont like to admit that they wont be voting in the election.

  34. WELLYTAB
    “On another note, I am utterly fed up of the unpleasant phrase “car crash” being used to describe every last fumble in an interview (including some offences far smaller than today’s). It’s melodramatic and thoroughly tasteless. What next in the name of a few views?”

    I detest just about all pre-packaged phrasing – I absolutely hate “absolutely” for example in it’s new role as meaning “Yes” – and it is amazing how swiftly they spread.

    My guess is that as, subliminally, people find new words and phrases “trendy” they unconsciously adopt them and It then spreads like a disease.

    As a long-time songwriter I find the current habit of repeating the same line many times over lazy and tedious in the extreme – but you hear it more and more in contemporary songs.

  35. Will be interesting to see how deep rooted the apparent improvement in Corbyn’s standing is with regard to this ‘gaffe’.

    Personally, not being able to name a price is the kind of thing that looks quite bad, but forgetting some numbers isn’t the same as ripping up your manifesto after 48 hours in complete panic and confusion. I’d be happy with a post interview clarification. It’s the kind of thing I sometimes need to do with clients – ‘I’m sorry, I don’t have the figures to hand but will email them to you as soon as I get back’. I hope I don’t do this with critically important stuff that I should have my fingertips, but I’ve never presented a report and then told the client that ‘actually it’s rubbish, what I meant to say was X, but that doesn’t change anything’. That would be pretty bad.

    We’ll see in due course whether voters punish Corbyn for this and it’s business as usual, or whether there is a more genuine level of respect for the man that has come through during the campaign. Hard to say which will prevail at this point, but I hope the man isn’t judged on such an error – it’s what the actual policy is that matters.

  36. “dont like to admit that they wont be voting in the election”

    Absolutely, but don’t forget self-delusion too, they probably can convince themselves that they’re going to do something that they won’t.. Most people are pretty good at fooling themselves as well as others. It’s enough to make a pollster weep.

  37. Hawthorn

    I think that’s a reasonable point. Not just the obvious tuition fees, but all the stuff that plays into many young people’s sense of right and wrong – not to mention more holidays….

    Having said that, why aren’t they going for the LibDem’s spliffs for all and another bite at Brexit offer?

  38. @Daniel “ I highly doubt this figure. Makes me think that Survation is polling only very strongly politically active 18-24s to come to a value of 82% turnout in this age group.”

    I agree 82% turnout is unlikely given past behaviour.

    However, that is only a possibility of 82% of the 66% who registered to vote.

    So if all 82% did turn up Turnout would be 54% in that age-group.

  39. Ah, OK, I now have to apologise for using ‘absolutely’!

  40. No, not an urban myth.

    But, just as the aging shifting right link has data to support it both are unhelpful generalizations that say little about behaviours this time.

  41. Sorry my last for confused.

  42. CONFUSED
    Poll bias
    I am constantly reading that the youth are heavily weighted to voting labour

    I think the polls could over estimate the Labour youth vote and underestimate the Tory vote. Also I think it is possible that the Tory vote is over estimated in over 65’s compared to Labour vote. Because those interested in politics amongst youth are more left wing, and those over 65’s more interested in politics rend to be more right wing and both groups over represented on panels.

  43. @SeaChange

    “It would be most annoying to the EU for the UK to threaten to revoke A50 and immediately invoke again to extend talks and block any further integration until they got a deal, though the EU budget would still be getting funded.”

    IMHO one of the strongest arguments I’ve seen for the view that Art50 cannot be revoked other than by the mechanism (unanimity) specified in Art50.

  44. phil

    ” Where do they think the money is coming from ? Maybe we should print it like they do in Zimbabwe.”

    I’m not an expert Phil, but I think that’s what we do over here as well. Certainly most of my money appears to be printed.

  45. This gaffe will make little change will it ? If you were voting Tory you still will vote that way. If you are one of JCs disciples he could probably run over your granny and you still would have the rose-colored specs on about him. It might give some of these se don’t know voters a reason not to vote for him come polling day but beyond that not a lot of damage.

  46. @ SeaChange.

    Potentially 82% of 66% registered voters I could see happening. What I can’t find yet, and I guess we will only find out after 8th June is how many people are actually registered to vote. i understand there was a massive surge in registration but many were already registered and they didn’t know about it, or they were registered before but had changed address since last time. So I would be curious to find out how many first time registered voters are actually there.

  47. But to repeat myself in order to accept the results of the polling for the 18-24 year olds we have to believe that over 65% of children of tories rebel and vote labour AND that all children of labour voters stay labour for those numbers to be accurate.

    I just don’t believe that.

    There is huge pressure to be seen to be a labour voter as a young person, especially when it is a mantra that if you are young you vote labour.

  48. TRIGGUY

    At least you didn’t apologise by writing: “My bad.”

    What would Shakespeare think eh?

  49. The Tories will be happy with latest poll after a better few days.

    I assume that the strategy was always to attack Corbyn heavily this week and focus everyone on Brexit to finish.

    Locally it’s as though the Tories have just kicked on with posters and leaflet drop today.

    The Corbyn “dither” on costs today has featured heavily on BBC TV and radio. You have to say it does not help his credibility one bit. It probably will not be picked up by the polls but it might just solidify the gap. It also resonates when TM goes for him as weak and indecisive.

    Why do politicians never just say they have forgot. It’s as though they just stop the brain and repeat the same words.

  50. Hot off the press, new ICM / Guardian poll

    Con 45% (down two)
    Labour 33% (no change)
    Lib Dems 8% (down one)
    Ukip 5%(up one)
    Green 3% (up one)

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