Saturday night polls

We should have a truckload of polls tonight. There is a new Opinium, a new ComRes for the Indy & Sunday Mirror, YouGov for the Sunday Times, probably an ORB and perhaps an ICM for the Sun on Sunday. I’ve seen rumours of Survation too (they normally poll for the Mail on Sunday) and we’re overdue a Panelbase poll. The thing to look for is whether polls continue to show a narrowing of the Conservative lead – keep an eye on the fieldwork dates, more recent polls could be showing an impact from reactions to the bombing (or, indeed, the effects of the dementia tax row fading). Also remember the house effects I wrote about earlier – ICM and ComRes tend to show larger Tory leads anyway, so even if they show a significant movement towards Labour it may still leave the Tories with a good lead.

The first poll we actually have figures for is Opinium, who have topline figures of CON 45%(-1), LAB 35%(+2), LDEM 7%(-1), UKIP 5%(nc). Changes are from the previous week and fieldwork was on Tuesday and Wednesday, so just after the Manchester bombing but before political campaigning had resumed. We have movement towards Labour, but the Conservatives still managing to cling onto a double-digit lead. Tabs are here.

ComRes for the Sunday Mirror and Independent have topline figures of CON 46%(-2), LAB 34%(+4), LDEM 8%(-2), UKIP 5%(nc). Changes are from a fortnight ago, and fieldwork was between Wednesday and Friday. The Tory lead has dropped by six points, but ComRes tends to give the Conservatives some of their better figures, so this still leaves them with a twelve point lead. Tabs are here.

ORB for the Telegraph have topline figures of CON 44%(-2), LAB 38%(+4), LDEM 7%(nc), UKIP 5%(-2). Changes are from a week ago and fieldwork was Wednesday to Thursday. Once again, we have a narrowing of the Tory lead, in this case down to six points.

YouGov for the Sunday Times have topline figures of CON 43%(nc), LAB 36%(-2), LDEM 9%(-1), UKIP 4%(nc). Changes are from the Times poll earlier in the week and fieldwork was Thursday to Friday. This is the most recent of the polls we’ve seen so far tonight, and it has Labour falling back a bit from the YouGov poll in the week. That said, it is only one poll, so don’t read too much into that unless we see other polls showing a similar pattern.

ICM for the Sun on Sunday has toplines of CON 46%(-1), LAB 32%(-1), LDEM 8%(-1), UKIP 5%(+1). Fieldwork was on Wednesday to Friday, and changes are since the ICM/Guardian poll conducted over last weekend. Changes here seem quite steady (ICM’s previous poll already showed a sharp narrowing of the lead). As I said earlier, ICM and ComRes tend to show the largest Tory leads because of their demographic based turnout model.

I’ll update this post through the evening as other polls appear.


1,864 Responses to “Saturday night polls”

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  1. Woody
    ”They’ve done Dementia Tax, got them a couple of points move. The Tories have had a week to come up with a soundbite answer to it which should be able to close it down, (if they haven’t they deserve to lose!). I would have thought a cap number that works would do it.’

    I suspect there is still a lot of mileage in that issue for Labour , and I would expect them to push it strongly again in the last few days of the campaign.

  2. I think that what would put people off voting for Corbyn is the prospect of Diane Abbott as Home Secretary.
    It’s the company that he keeps…

  3. Maybe Valerie but the Con frontbench includes “coughs” Liz Truss

  4. Graham

    you keep on about the care point but where is the polling evidence that the 65+ voters are deserting the Tories?

    University students are not fretting about it i would not have thought unless they are worried that if Labour does not get elected their inheritance might be reduced.Does anybody know what Labour policy is on care except to preserve inherited wealth?

  5. What saddens me is the lack of substance in the overall debate, labour have put out a manifesto which will cost billions and the debate should be about the overall cost of this versus potential GDP growth, referencing the IFS analysis which shows that Labours manifesto will deliver marginally higher GDP (versus the Tories) for substantially higher borrowing. This to me seems to be a good place to start in terms of rebuilding their lead.

  6. At least TM can fill her front bench. JC is scrambling around to fill his with some having 2 jobs. That’s his problem the very best labour people like Chukka an Yvette Cooper to name but 2 won’t work with him

  7. @ Turncoat

    I am not persuaded to be honest. To take Wakefield as an example , I doubt that UKIP would have polled more than 3000 or so this year anyway and it has to be far from certain how their residual vote will split. Apparently the Pontefract & Normanton UKIP branch is advising its former supporters to vote Labour so any message from them is far from clear.
    ‘There are many other more vulnerable seats in this category (eg Derbyshire North East, Lancaster and Fleetwood, Dewsbury, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Halifax to mention but a few) which will almost certainly change hands based on current polling and would suggest a CON majority of 60-100+’
    That rather depends on which polls you have in mind! Tonight’s Opinium poll is showing no swing at all in England , and if that is accurate, Labour could hold all the seats you have listed. I would also point out that with the exception of Derbyshire NE and Newcastle under Lyme the Labour MPs in those seats will enjoy a first time incumbency bonus – like the new Copeland MP – and will probably be more difficult to oust than national poll figures might imply.

  8. Labour MP’s would have a very quick change of heart about serving on the front bench if JC became PM.

    The only source of their reluctance is that they believed he was ‘unelectable’. Which is of course ironic given he is on course to secure a higher share of vote since 2005 or possibly 2001.

  9. Hi All,

    Not posted on here since the referendum campaign.

    A few insights from a Labour partizan –

    I read an interesting piece on Political Betting I believe, saying that the UKIP to Tory flow might be quite varied across the country.

    I am in the North West, and have spent time on the doorstep and phone banking in a lot of seats in Cheshire and Greater Manchester.

    I would say in my experience, a lot more 2015 UKIP will ‘come back’ to Labour than the headline predictions of 4-1 Tory to Labour conversions. The Tory brand is still quite toxic to many in the north west despite swapping to UKIP.

    I also see more signs of a young voter surge than in 2015. None of this means that I think Labour can win – it seems the events in Manchester have taken a bit of wind out of our sails in the polls – wouldn’t say it seems so on the doors yet but to early to tell.

    The ‘Dementia Tax’ has definitely damaged the Tories, and Labour’s manifesto offering has helped, though not all are convinced the figures will stack up.

    The election does seem to be shaping up for an interesting finish, I would expect Labour to make the odd gain and to outperform in defence, but barring May coming unstuck in the QT show or some other revelation, I would expect her to limp home with a slightly increased, if not particularly strong or stable majority.

  10. Phil

    Without being cynical – if Labour won, Cornyn wouldn’t have a problem with filling the front row.

  11. Of course if Corbyn had a Green-SNP-SDLP-LibDem-Welsh Nat coalition, he could fill his frontbench with them plus a few Labour corbyn loyalists in Labour.
    Would get us through to second election in February.
    Looking like small Tory majority or Tory-DUP coalition. Probably strengthens Brexit hand if the latter.

  12. Dr Mibbles

    While i accept that even the cat who played moonlight sonata on the Harp got 100m hits on facebook.the Tory attack ad with over 1m hits is the largest hit for any political ad in this election. Watch it and weep!.

    best place-guido or face book itself

  13. S Thomas

    The urgent nature of the Tory U Turn highlights the electoral potency of the issue . It impacts many voters beyond the 65+ most directly affected.

  14. I am relatively new to this site but have become worryingly addicted to clicking the little refresh button. I find the comments really fascinating and insightful and it is nice to read about politics without the opponent bashing. This is the first time I have weighed in.

    I think this is an exciting/challenging time for politics (depending on your point of view) and things that seemed certain and predictable (e.g. a thumping majority for the Tories) are no longer quite as certain. My feeling is that there may be some further creep for Labour, but probably not enough to prevent a Tory majority (although it will have shrunk compared to original predictions, I expect).

    I think the Tories are potentially making a mistake in basing their campaign on attacking Corbyn – the Brits love an underdog and this could end up backfiring on them. I think they have also made an error in assuming they had it in the bag. Labour have put together a very good campaign (IMO) despite the unpopularity of Corbyn.

    I think the recent atrocities in Manchester have possibly changed the course of things, although it’s difficult to say exactly how. Both parties are using it for political mileage, quite shamelessly. I think on balance it will have tipped the polls towards the Tories, for a few reasons – (a) the campaigning was paused just as Labour were gaining momentum off the back of Dementia-tax-gate; (b) it focused people’s minds on safety and defence, which is something the Tories tend to be trusted with; and (c) it gave the Tories the opportunity to bring up Corbyn’s (supposed) terrorist sympathising tendencies.

  15. The polls seem to be settling at about 10% difference with the smaller parties squeezed. There is still some of the UKIP vote to move across to Tories or Labour ( or not vote on the night).

    The key will be if the Tories have been able to focus the vote in the marginals( likely in some as UKIP vote moves to support Brexit).

    I still think that Brexit will figure highly next week, as Tories try to maximise majority. Labour will look to protect its core vote

    I also expect the Tories to attack Corbyn on links to unions and Communist party.

  16. S Thomas

    University students are not fretting about it i would not have thought unless they are worried that if Labour does not get elected their inheritance might be reduced

    ______________________________________________

    I’m fairly sure that most students are more interested in policies that will make their lives better now (housing, tuition fees, rent etc), not 40-50 years in the future when their parents die. Inheritance is the obsession of the old, not the young.

  17. Clearly Mike Pearce has never met Liz Truss – you should not believe everything you read.

  18. @ Graham

    Paddy Power odds for Wakefield 1/5 for CON versus 3/1 LAB Hold. Perhaps I should place a bet on Labour holding this then!

  19. If Labour wins, I would love them to offer a Cabinet position to Caroline Lucas and Mhairi Black and definitely none to Chuka.

  20. @Turncoat

    You would be better? off betting on Dewsbury South, don’t think Labour will be keeping hold of Wakefield.

  21. If CCHQ choose to focus on one particular facebook ad and pour money into it, it will indeed rack up views on facebook (not least because videos auto-play on most peoples phones as they scroll through their newsfeed – not the same thing as someone sitting through the whole thing and paying attention).

    My understanding is that both LAB and CON had commissioned around 20-30 differently targeted ads for different demographics. Perhaps CON are just playing big on this one ad?

  22. If you are interested in an outside bet, try Dewsbury – Labour win.

    Odds are Con 1/6 and Labour 7/2. Lab majority currently 1,500.

    However, the Labour incumbent is very good, strong on local issues, and the Tories put up a young, lightweight and inexperienced candidate.

    Labour might just hold it…..

  23. My MP catmanjeff- agree totally with that assessment

  24. Don’t bet on Wolverhampton south west.. my parents live there. Conservative challenger ver very active.. not a squeak from the labour candidate trying to defend.. not a leaflet not a ring at the door.. nothing. Almost like labour has given it up already which is very odd.

  25. “referencing the IFS analysis”

    What makes you think the IFS analysis is sound? They are neoliberals using models that have been demonstrated by events over the last decade to be complete bunkum. Yet people cling to them like a dying religion.

    The ‘cost’ of Labours proposals are the resources used in them vs. the alternative uses you are proposing – which requires private sector entities prepared to borrow from a bank and employ people. What is the better use of doctors other than the NHS? Looking after rich people first?

    The ‘everything is a business’ analysis mechanism is a lie – as we see every time we need to buy military hardware or fight a war.

  26. @Smithy

    I’m a Batley and Spen man myself.

    :-)

  27. David Welch,

    “And meantime proportionately more elderly people have to sell their homes to pay for care in Scotland than England.”

    What is the evidence for this assertion?

    Under new policy you don’t need to sell your home as long as you (or your spouse lives). Furthermore the threshold is raised to £100K.

    At least this policy is a way of addressing the crisis in elderly care……why should somebody with a £1M property in London expect the taxpayer to foot the bill?

  28. CON: 44% (-2)
    LAB: 38% (+4)
    LDEM: 7% (-)
    UKIP: 5% (-2)

    (via @ORB_Int / 24 – 25 May)

  29. Westminster voting intention: CON: 44% (-2) LAB: 38% (+4) LDEM: 7% (-) UKIP: 5% (-2) (via @ORB_Int / 24 – 25 May)

  30. I didn’t see the Corbyn/Neil interview live, and have only seen snippets since, but the commentariat view seems to be that he fared OK, certainly in comparison to May’s effort the previous Monday. Neil predictably hammered him on his past support for Irish Republicanism and his previous attitudes towards NATO, Trident and unilateralism, but I tend to agree with those who think these negatives for Corbyn are priced into the public’s perception of him. Unless he revealed to Neil that he had been behind the Brighton bombing then I really don’t think this admittedly vulnerable area for him could have got much worse. If there was a positive, the interview did allow him to clarify some of these views without them being parodied and misrepresented through the prism of right wing tabloids and Tory politicians.

    Of course, this far Left past is an overall negative for Corbyn and a depressant on his potential electoral support, but the story for me, buried below the surface in these polls, is the direction of travel in how the two leaders are being perceived. May still leads, but the latest Opinium poll shows startling declines in her approval ratings and quite significant improvements in Corbyn’s. May is obviously having a stinker of a campaign whereas Corbyn is somewhat overachieving.

    Do I think this will prevent the Tories winning comfortably on June 8th? Sadly, no, but the narrative for Labour in this election is to live to fight another day and prevent a Tory landslide. By that criteria, and very low success threshold, I think Corbyn might just be pulling it off. He’s got a bit of momentum and some wind in his sails. It won’t take him to victory, but it might just make 2022(?) interesting. Peg the Tories to circa 50–60 majority on June 8th and this rather uninspiring Government, led by a politician who is shrinking in stature as each day of this campaign goes by, and I see a very beatable Tory party looming into view circa 2019 as the Brexit fiasco unfolds.

    Labour have got to stay in the ring though. That’s the only game in town for them over the next 10 days. The recent narrowing of the polls suggests that, as has often been the case in their 100 year history, the rumours of the death of the Labour Party might be somewhat exaggerated.

    In summary, Tory victory a certainty but, ironically, still much to play for.

  31. Valerie
    I think that what would put people off voting for Corbyn is the prospect of Diane Abbott as Home Secretary.
    It’s the company that he keeps

    I think if jC became PM by some miracle might even see the likes of Chukka , Ed Milliband, Yvette Cooper, back on the front bench. Diane would be moved to Culture

  32. ISTM that the voters are telling the minor parties on the left to roll up into Labour.

  33. CON: 44% (-2)
    LAB: 38% (+4)
    LDEM: 7% (-)
    UKIP: 5% (-2)

    (via @ORB_Int / 24 – 25 May)

  34. So has the truck shed its load of polls ? Or was it being delivered by B A.

  35. Fingers crossed for Monday Catmanjeff?

  36. orb has lab on 38

  37. @ Turncoat.

    Dilnot Report.

    But these calculations are so affected by average value of properties and actual costs of care.

    Who would think that weekly costs were double in Aberdeen compared to Dundee and Fife. The gap is probably reducing now that Aberdeen is in depression and staff recruitment has become slightly easier.

  38. Those ORB figures will be instigating panic at Tory HQ

  39. Another poll with Tories falling and labour up – that’s before labour go big on Social care again

  40. Anthony I can’t imagine why my comment is in moderation when some rather more controversial ones above have been allowed to stand.
    If you print my original comment please feel free to delete this one.

  41. @Smithy

    Huddersfield Town?

    I hope they do OK, but I’m a Leeds fan, so rather worried at the mo.

    Hopefully we will get Ranieri.

  42. So 38 wasn’t an outlier… this evening’s yougov will be fascinating

  43. TURNCOAT

    Under new policy you don’t need to sell your home as long as you (or your spouse lives). Furthermore the threshold is raised to £100K.

    At least this policy is a way of addressing the crisis in elderly care……why should somebody with a £1M property in London expect the taxpayer to foot the bill?

    And now there is a CAP, interesting to see that with time people are beginning to understand it more and more see some of its benefits…

  44. “Women voters surge towards Jeremy Corbyn” according to Telegraph.

  45. Thought the YouGov poll was an outlier?

  46. Orb figs confirm labour hq view that hung parliament now within touching distance. May would have to go, Tories in turmoil and Labour form govt with c&s with snp.
    JC becomes pm . This is now a real possibility .

  47. Yeah

  48. YouGov’s poll is going to be the more informative of the evening, I think, telling us whether the Labour surge has peaked or not.

    With Tories still holding firmly above 40% in all other polls, there surely can’t be much more room for gains now.

  49. The U-turn isn’t enough for may without a cap social care isn’t going to keep hurting the Torys unless she sets a firm cap which I dont think anyone beleives she will do before the election.

    So the 5 polls since Manchester have a big spread between 5 and 12 point leads, YouGov 5 Orb 6 SurveyMonkey 8 Opinium 10 Comres 12. Labour between 33 and 38, Torys 43-46. Seems its Labours value that can’t agree on. The next ICM and YouGov polls due tonight im looking forward too

    Before a guess Id like to see those two but im still gong for a hung parliment on 8th of June

  50. So two good polls for Con and one good poll for Lab. what will YouGov show?

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