Saturday night polls

We should have a truckload of polls tonight. There is a new Opinium, a new ComRes for the Indy & Sunday Mirror, YouGov for the Sunday Times, probably an ORB and perhaps an ICM for the Sun on Sunday. I’ve seen rumours of Survation too (they normally poll for the Mail on Sunday) and we’re overdue a Panelbase poll. The thing to look for is whether polls continue to show a narrowing of the Conservative lead – keep an eye on the fieldwork dates, more recent polls could be showing an impact from reactions to the bombing (or, indeed, the effects of the dementia tax row fading). Also remember the house effects I wrote about earlier – ICM and ComRes tend to show larger Tory leads anyway, so even if they show a significant movement towards Labour it may still leave the Tories with a good lead.

The first poll we actually have figures for is Opinium, who have topline figures of CON 45%(-1), LAB 35%(+2), LDEM 7%(-1), UKIP 5%(nc). Changes are from the previous week and fieldwork was on Tuesday and Wednesday, so just after the Manchester bombing but before political campaigning had resumed. We have movement towards Labour, but the Conservatives still managing to cling onto a double-digit lead. Tabs are here.

ComRes for the Sunday Mirror and Independent have topline figures of CON 46%(-2), LAB 34%(+4), LDEM 8%(-2), UKIP 5%(nc). Changes are from a fortnight ago, and fieldwork was between Wednesday and Friday. The Tory lead has dropped by six points, but ComRes tends to give the Conservatives some of their better figures, so this still leaves them with a twelve point lead. Tabs are here.

ORB for the Telegraph have topline figures of CON 44%(-2), LAB 38%(+4), LDEM 7%(nc), UKIP 5%(-2). Changes are from a week ago and fieldwork was Wednesday to Thursday. Once again, we have a narrowing of the Tory lead, in this case down to six points.

YouGov for the Sunday Times have topline figures of CON 43%(nc), LAB 36%(-2), LDEM 9%(-1), UKIP 4%(nc). Changes are from the Times poll earlier in the week and fieldwork was Thursday to Friday. This is the most recent of the polls we’ve seen so far tonight, and it has Labour falling back a bit from the YouGov poll in the week. That said, it is only one poll, so don’t read too much into that unless we see other polls showing a similar pattern.

ICM for the Sun on Sunday has toplines of CON 46%(-1), LAB 32%(-1), LDEM 8%(-1), UKIP 5%(+1). Fieldwork was on Wednesday to Friday, and changes are since the ICM/Guardian poll conducted over last weekend. Changes here seem quite steady (ICM’s previous poll already showed a sharp narrowing of the lead). As I said earlier, ICM and ComRes tend to show the largest Tory leads because of their demographic based turnout model.

I’ll update this post through the evening as other polls appear.


1,864 Responses to “Saturday night polls”

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  1. @ RELICK – ComRes link:
    http://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/Independent-Sunday-Mirror-VI_26052017_45455765.pdf

    P.S. Ignore my comment on breakdown of postal vote. The demographic info is in the report (fairly wide spread across demographics, at the margin slightly more elderly voters)

  2. DrMibbles:

    “Knew” is a bit of an exaggeration, the polls showed tight races in both of those cases and whilst only a minority predicted the real winners, it wasn’t a small minority by any means.

    This time the polls aren’t even close at the moment, and the only people I see predicting anything other than a Tory majority are those who would do so even if the Tories were polling at 90%.

    Regardless, what will inevitably be more important than national polls is regional variation and marginal seat results. There’s been a lot of suggestion that the Tories and/or Labour might be piling up votes in safe seats and the marginals are still very marginal.

  3. I can’t believe I’m typing this, but are there any Scottish polls due?
    Some of the cross breaks have looked better for Labour. We could do with conformation.

  4. It always comes down to what actually happens in the marginal seats. Which be a swing higher then the national trend or the reverse of that. What polling numbers do you think lab/con are paying attention to? Not the ones on these kinds of pages.

    iow what Trump was doing spending all that time in Wis, Mich, Penn, Ohio, Florida, etc in the last 3 weeks of the US election. Beware top line polling results and aggregated data – most here know that, but the public and most media hacks do not.

  5. Trevor:

    Cheers!

  6. @Phil
    ‘The social care issue seems to be over with..’

    I shall be amazed if Labour fail to return to Winter Fuel Payments and the Dementia Tax closer to Polling Day.

  7. Tory Shield wall

    The shield wall holds tight after the media attack and the labour march of the snowflakes.
    Rock solid at 44-46. As i posted earlier on the one hand there is the Tory shield wall comprised of veteran hardened users of the stubby pencil and against them there are the snowflakes 18-24 starting their hols before june 8th and with a history of not showing up for the big event. who is your money on?shieldwall or snowflake?

  8. I,m sure TM would take a majority of 65 now if it meant Corbyn stayed in charge of a divided Labour Party. That would be the best of both worlds. How many of thes young voters who seem so besotted with him will still be so supportive in 4 to 5 yrs time when they are older and no longer students one assumes . Will they remain so keen with 4 to 5 yrs in opposition ? I suspect it f he loses even gallantly this will all begin to burn itself out over the next few yrs as far as his popular appeal to s concerned. At the next election he will be 72 or 73 which will be much too old.

  9. Am I right in thinking that a raw data gap of 3% has turned into a 12% weighted gap? That seems like a huge weighting

  10. @ Graham

    They will almost certainly try, but Lynton Crosby may have several dead cats up his sleeve to thwart their attempts.

  11. Looking at the Opinium tables the Tory lead in England is shown as 10% – effectively unchanged since 2015. Given that Labour will enjoy first time incumbency in many of its most marginal seats that would suggest very few seats actually changing hands there.

  12. @ RELICK – I just spotted the pdf link I sent doesn’t seem to have done the ‘weighted’ adjustments (possibly why you can no longer link direct to it from AW’s ‘here’). Hopefully they’ll fix it soon as if the headline numbers have come direct from unweighted results then they might have to adjust the headline numbers as well.
    Confusing!?

  13. I just checked back on 2015: Tories received 37%, and all the polls since the election was called has them several points higher.

    The huge number of Labour seats where the UKIP vote was higher than the Labour majority – coinciding with UKIP’s collapse – mean that the Cons do not need much in order to soak up dozens of Labour seats. We know the swing won’t be universally felt, and I suspect that the Cons won’t need much more than a 6-8% lead nationally to get them to a healthy 60-80 seat majority.

    Concerned Tory supporters (following YouGovs 5% shocker) will be happy to see these first two polls tonight: 10% and 12% leads. I can’t imagine them having a worse final 11 days in the campaign than the last 1 have been for them…

  14. @ Graham,

    Don’t forget the collapse of UKIP support – many of these votes will go to CON (even in seats where they are standing). I would think that many London Labour held marginals won’t change hands, but CON will do much better in West Midlands and the North where UKIP did very well in 2015. Also CON likely to make gains in Scotland (“Dementia Tax” doesn’t appply there).

    Nuttall is simply not a credible leader and many have concluded that UKIP has no purpose.

  15. @ CAMBRIDGERACHEL – the ComRes poll pdf has been updated with the ‘weighted’ adjustment and you can link to it from AW’s ‘here’ now. However, it does only show a 4% ‘weighted’ lead for CON which suggests the demographic adjustment they do (simplified as assume lazy young voters, old nothing better to do but vote) is enormous.

    Does feel suspicious… the huge polarization of VI by age group is going to make ComRes adjust CON up but by 8%?!?

    I’m very confused and taxi about to arrive so hopefully someone else has a better comment on what is going on with ComRes.

  16. @Turncoat: “Nuttall is simply not a credible leader and many have concluded that UKIP has no purpose.”

    All depends what happens next.

    Suppose Labour are negotiating. It could be anything from a collusive negotiation to get the UK back in, to France thinking “Brexit and Corbyn, now we can really bring down the City!!”

  17. @Turncoat

    re-UKIP. The impact of that will be baked into the figures anyway, though I doubt that the much diminished numbers of UKIP voters will respond like chessboard pieces to the wishes of UKIP leaders. In the same way, the idea of a Progressive Anti-Tory Alliance was naieve and a non-starter in that many LibDem voters would opt for a Tory in preference to Labour in the absence of a candidate of their own.
    I agree with you re-Tory gains in Scotland – but that would be at SNP expense. The Opinium Scotland crossbreak actually has Labour back in second place there on 26% – though the numbers are far too small to justify conclusions being drawn really.

  18. @ JOSEPH1832

    “Suppose Labour are negotiating. It could be anything from a collusive negotiation to get the UK back in, to France thinking “Brexit and Corbyn, now we can really bring down the City!!”

    That’s why many 2015 Kippers will be concerned about the possibility of a Labour-led coalition and vote CON. A hung parliament really could put Brexit in jeopardy as may have to rely on SNP / LIB co-operation.

  19. Incredible demographics weighting in ComRes.

    Do any other pollsters do anything quite as impactful on headline voting intention?

  20. Live in Coventry in a Labour held seat. Had fliers from Labour on a consistent basis since the election. Had my first two from the Tories today, one just pushing the local candidate and the other warning that Corbyn could be PM and that he had voted to decrease the defense budget.

  21. Even if slightly hung the Ulster unionists are likely to keep the tories in power rather than a rainbow coalition

  22. @GRAHAM

    What are your predictions for Copeland (given that CON won recent by-election) – CON hold?

    There are many other seats in the North with narrower Labour majorities with large 2015 UKIP vote……Based on uniform swing, surely these could change hands too?

  23. Good spot Trevor – explains the larger Tory leads so any movement for labour here would expected to be larger elsewhere

  24. CAMBRIDGERACHEL
    “UKIP holding steady, is that their floor for this election? Or will the police numbers issue push them a bit higher”
    …………………………………….
    Only gamechanger for any of the main 4 parties on vote share from 2015 is one of them offering referendum on capital punishment (for terrorists, etc).
    Given the PM could change her manifesto once published, it may be that a new policy can be added to any manifesto at any moment by any party.
    Other than that ‘events dear boy events’.
    Other than that door to door plugging away on doorsteps in the marginals by candidates and activists.
    I think if the Conservatives could dump Theresa May and get in a truly tried trusted face with a safe pair of hands (and ditch much of the 2017 manifesto in place of 2015 manifesto) then they could still get a 150 landslide.
    This was the Conservative Party perfect storm moment to get a 150 seat majority. It started well with a Vote of confidence in Brexit from the 17 million Leave vote concerned at rearguard Remoaners obstruction.
    It fell apart because it turns out the PM had a very anti-2015 Conservative Party manifesto and very anti- 1987 Conservative manifesto.
    Corbyn and Corbyn (and Dianne Abbott) may yet save the day for the Prime Minister.
    Anything under 335 seats will be seen as a reckless needless exercise. 345 seats will just about do. 355 will mean the PM may survive until she decides to leave. But any fall to 42% and below could -depending on marginals- leave the Conservatives below 2015 seats.
    And David Cameron, Michael Howard and William Hague would have loved 42%.
    If Ukip bounce back a few points, the Tories could still be sweating at midnight June 8.
    The LibDem collapse suggests there is no credible Remain vote left (other tan among Labour, Lib Dem and over half the Conservative MPs including based on what they said 12 months ago the PM, Chancellor and Home Secretary).
    Strange times.

  25. I have never been a fan of Comres and there are many who share my scepticism going back quite a few years. Some have christened the outfit as ‘Comedy Polls’.
    I notice that in their Scotland tables they have the Tories on 35% – a mere 5% behind the SNP. I wonder how likely that is.

  26. I said a few days ago that I thought the Tories would be up 10% – 14% over the next week so pleased to see these first couple are in that range.

    May still way ahead of Corbyn in leadership, security and Brexit so not really a surprise to see a low double digit lead being maintained

  27. Trevor/Relick – The original tabs didn’t appear to be weighted numbers for questions OTHER than voting intention. I’ve been in touch with ComRes and they’ve changed the tabs, hence the change in the link. The weighting is relatively light, so none of the actual topline figures in the press release changed.

    Note that the topline voting intention figures were correctly weighted to begin with, so they will definitely not change.

  28. Tory shield wall moves forward onto attack.Tory strategy becoming clear. Hit Corbyn ruthlessly and relentlessly for the next 10 days. Tory Facebook attack ad on corbyn IRA/defence just reached record breaking 1m hits.Powerful stuff.
    Some might say it will be counterproductive but looks terrifying to me having seen it.It is a WTF moment

  29. ARSENAL !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Poll result 2-1

    Wenger In.

  30. Adam

    “May still way ahead….in leadership, security and Brexit….”

    Not to mention trust on the economy.

  31. I’m a bit surprised at ComRes publishing what is effectively an analysis of how postal voters have already voted (page 8 of pdf) as I thought this was illegal. I found a legal website

    http://www.inbrief.co.uk/media-law/publication-of-exit-polls-law/

    that said:

    The Representation of the People Act 2000 inserted a section 66A into the initial 1983 of the same name and this read as follows. It is a criminal offence ‘to publish, before a poll is closed, any statement about the way in which voters have voted in that election, where this statement is, or might reasonably be taken to be, based on information given by voters after they voted.’

    Not only statements and statistics but also making forecasts based on exit polls, constitute an offence. The 2000 Act specifically makes it an offence ‘to publish, before a poll is closed, any forecast – including any estimate – of that election result, if the forecast is based on exit poll information from voters, or which might reasonably be taken to be based on it.

    Unless this has changed, it’s probably wise not to even comment on what they have published.

    It’s also worth remembering that postal voters are over-represented on online panels. From memory usually about 30% who vote do so by post, while it’s only about 20% among all voters.

  32. Another problem for Labour numbers is that Labour has effectively fired all of its shots and hasn’t got closer than 5% behind in one poll, with the Tories always in at least mid-40s. The Tories, as far as I can see, still haven’t really started their campaign proper. TM has been away being Prime Ministerial, last week was lost to Manchester and this weekend is probably a write off because of the holiday on Monday.

    This means the Tories will have about 8 to 10 days of blasting everything they have got at Corbyn, Labour and anyone else who gets in the way.

    For example, I haven’t seen anyone yet repeatedly mention that 75% of Labour MPs have (or at least had) no confidence in their leader. The Tories have Boris in reserve ready to wheel out and do his “loveable scamp” thing, who do Labour have?

    There seems to me to be only upside for the Tories and downside for Labour, SNP apart the rest are nowhere.

  33. @Jonathan Stuart-Brown: “It fell apart because it turns out the PM had a very anti-2015 Conservative Party manifesto and very anti- 1987 Conservative manifesto.”

    I always thought that it was wrong in principle to seek a mandate on Brexit, and then mix it up with major domestic policy change.

    “Take back control” was neutral as to the direction in which that control would be used. Hence the need to continue existing EU laws, and only after a subsequent election should they be changed if in line with the new government’s mandate.

    After all, she was happy to be PM under that mandate but for the difficulties that the low majority caused to Brexit. A bit of tinkering at some of the sillier “we will never raise any extra taxes”/”triple lock” promises, but basically same again.

  34. @Turncoat

    As far as Copeland is concerned the recently elected Tory MP will almost certainly enjoy a first time incumbency boost despite not having been at Westminster long enough to have made a great impact. Memories of her victory will remain fresh , and I would be confident that the Tories will do a fair bit better there on June 8th than would have been the case had there never been a by election.There is plenty of evidence that parties which win a seat at a by election go on to outperform their party’s national performance at the subsequent General Election. On the other hand.were the by election to be taking place today – rather than back in late February – Labour would have a much better prospect of holding the seat given the recovery in their national poll ratings. Whilst I am not going to say that a Tory Hold is certain, I do predict a bigger swing there than in the country as a whole. If the national result turns out to be – say – a swing from Lab to Con of 1% , I consider that the pro-Tory swing in Copeland – from 2015 not the by election – could well be more like 3%. That would make the result there very close indeed. However, I don’t think this has any implications for other seats in the North West at all. We are looking here at the by election effect in a specific seat!

  35. Woody may have a point. I wonder if the rows over election spending has meant they have been overcautious this time so as not to blow their limits too soon. I wonder if they have saved it all up to throw at the last week where it really counts. That’s s why they have Crosby.. he has nothing to do with the manifesto .. he works out where to deploy resources and when in order to take out target seats. He did a to last time to decapitate lots of lib dems.. I suspect he is doing it right now in lots f labour seats in the Midlands and north.

  36. Confirmation bias is wonderful. The relief that Labour is not ahead in the polls is palpable and it goes right into the vision of a new Tory dawn, even if the polls are continuation of the existing trend, which is reducing Conservative lead.

    ———

    I would like if the two suggestions of constantly attacking Corbyn was taken up by the Conservatives. If I learnt something as a foreigner in quarter of a century is that it would spectacularly backfire.

  37. With some of the stuff which Corbyn has said about the IRA, Hamas, Hezbollah and others, it hard to see how they could ever increase their share of vote much more. The recent quotes on the Tories Facebook ad about him wanting to abolish NATO and then “Wouldnt it be great if every country did what Costa Rica did and abolish their army” are going to turn away a large chunk of floating/centrist voters

  38. @ Woody

    I think many Tories will be hoping CCHQ make no attempt to wheel Boris out at all at any point ;-)

  39. Hi Phil

    I totally agree, the midlands and part of North of England (and I think Scotland) is where they see their major gains coming from and I agree about the strategy.

    I think also that they won’t let up even if they get back to very large (20%+) leads for two reasons.

    One (which is what they will admit) is that if they get over 50% of the vote it helps massively in the poker game of Brexit negotiations. The idea of walking away if the bill is too big or the deal no good holds a lot more water with 50% + of the vote.

    Secondly, if they hammer labour this time then effectively they have also won the next election as well.

  40. @Woody
    ‘This means the Tories will have about 8 to 10 days of blasting everything they have got at Corbyn, Labour and anyone else who gets in the way.’

    But Labour will surely be resonding with pwerful blasts of ‘Dementia Tax ! Dementia Tax!’ Also reminding voters in England and Wales that they face being denied Winter Fuel Payments which the Tories propose to continue paying up in Scotland.

  41. @ Woody

    “The Tories have Boris in reserve ready to wheel out and do his “loveable scamp” thing, who do Labour have?”

    Diane Abbott?

  42. Hi SSSimon

    I think you underestimate Boris.

    He won two mayoral elections in very Labour London and was instrumental IMO in leave winning the referendum.

  43. S THOMAS

    1m views is not recorded breaking. Something like 5m views on Facebook were achieved for the video of Corbyn calling into Peston to ask TM why she wouldn’t debate him

  44. @Graham

    What I am saying is that seats such as Wakefield had a LAB majority of 2613 in 2015 but a UKIP vote of nearly 8K with no UKIP candidate this time. Even if half of these vote for the Tory, LAB will lose this seat assuming that 2015 vote holds up for both CON and LAB.

    There are many other more vulnerable seats in this category (eg Derbyshire North East, Lancaster and Fleetwood, Dewsbury, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Halifax to mention but a few) which will almost certainly change hands based on current polling and would suggest a CON majority of 60-100+

  45. @Laszlo

    To me the problem is that just two months ago TM delivered a tribute to Martin McGuinness which treated his involvement with the IRA as just background history for a career in peace making.

    Having wiped clean the sins of top Provos, it must seem odd to some that a mere (at worst) fellow traveller is beyond the pale.

    The counter to this is complex and involves lots of detailed argument – basically the sort of thing that will go straight over the heads of the target voters.

    It has badly distracted the Tories from doing what parties do best in the election – attacking the other side as having terrible policies. Having made the mistake of treating the Tories as the TM show, they are making the mistake of treating Labour as if it were all about what Corbyn really thinks.

  46. Hi Graham

    They’ve done Dementia Tax, got them a couple of points move. The Tories have had a week to come up with a soundbite answer to it which should be able to close it down, (if they haven’t they deserve to lose!). I would have thought a cap number that works would do it.

    On WFP I think there are enough Tory voters who see the logic that richer pensioners not be getting it is reasonable

  47. Well, there is a very handy app that monitors the changes in Conservative ads and generates content, targets, etc, hence providing the opportunity to counter. Unless it moves to more private social media (email, whatsup, etc), it won’t work as a propaganda mechanism.

  48. Graham.. get t right the issue of the winter fuel allowance is a devolved power in Scotland. Nothing to do with TM. If you are going to have devolution that’s the point f it .. it doesn’t always follow what happens in England.. if it does you don’t need the scottish parliament As for the dementia tax what new can he say on it. He will just sound like a broken record

  49. JOSEPH1832

    Yes, agree.

    It’s also odd that Labour doesn’t attack the Conservatives at the national level (well, not really). It’s very different at (at least some of) the constituencies.

  50. Strange thinking from Turncoat @ 7.22 pm – “the dementia tax doesn`t apply in Scotland”, so likely Tory gains there.

    But we have a lower threshold on savings and house value than £100,000.

    And meantime proportionately more elderly people have to sell their homes to pay for care in Scotland than England.

    ””If you have capital assets worth £26,250 or more, including the value of your home, you must meet your own care costs in full (over and above any assessed entitlement to free personal and nursing care) ””

    http://www.careinfoscotland.scot/topics/care-homes/paying-care-home-fees/selling-your-home/

    The Tory manifesto proposals for care and having to sell owned houses seem a reasonable compromise to me.

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