Saturday night polls

We should have a truckload of polls tonight. There is a new Opinium, a new ComRes for the Indy & Sunday Mirror, YouGov for the Sunday Times, probably an ORB and perhaps an ICM for the Sun on Sunday. I’ve seen rumours of Survation too (they normally poll for the Mail on Sunday) and we’re overdue a Panelbase poll. The thing to look for is whether polls continue to show a narrowing of the Conservative lead – keep an eye on the fieldwork dates, more recent polls could be showing an impact from reactions to the bombing (or, indeed, the effects of the dementia tax row fading). Also remember the house effects I wrote about earlier – ICM and ComRes tend to show larger Tory leads anyway, so even if they show a significant movement towards Labour it may still leave the Tories with a good lead.

The first poll we actually have figures for is Opinium, who have topline figures of CON 45%(-1), LAB 35%(+2), LDEM 7%(-1), UKIP 5%(nc). Changes are from the previous week and fieldwork was on Tuesday and Wednesday, so just after the Manchester bombing but before political campaigning had resumed. We have movement towards Labour, but the Conservatives still managing to cling onto a double-digit lead. Tabs are here.

ComRes for the Sunday Mirror and Independent have topline figures of CON 46%(-2), LAB 34%(+4), LDEM 8%(-2), UKIP 5%(nc). Changes are from a fortnight ago, and fieldwork was between Wednesday and Friday. The Tory lead has dropped by six points, but ComRes tends to give the Conservatives some of their better figures, so this still leaves them with a twelve point lead. Tabs are here.

ORB for the Telegraph have topline figures of CON 44%(-2), LAB 38%(+4), LDEM 7%(nc), UKIP 5%(-2). Changes are from a week ago and fieldwork was Wednesday to Thursday. Once again, we have a narrowing of the Tory lead, in this case down to six points.

YouGov for the Sunday Times have topline figures of CON 43%(nc), LAB 36%(-2), LDEM 9%(-1), UKIP 4%(nc). Changes are from the Times poll earlier in the week and fieldwork was Thursday to Friday. This is the most recent of the polls we’ve seen so far tonight, and it has Labour falling back a bit from the YouGov poll in the week. That said, it is only one poll, so don’t read too much into that unless we see other polls showing a similar pattern.

ICM for the Sun on Sunday has toplines of CON 46%(-1), LAB 32%(-1), LDEM 8%(-1), UKIP 5%(+1). Fieldwork was on Wednesday to Friday, and changes are since the ICM/Guardian poll conducted over last weekend. Changes here seem quite steady (ICM’s previous poll already showed a sharp narrowing of the lead). As I said earlier, ICM and ComRes tend to show the largest Tory leads because of their demographic based turnout model.

I’ll update this post through the evening as other polls appear.


1,864 Responses to “Saturday night polls”

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  1. Thanks AW. With so many polls coming, hopefully we’ll get a feel for the big picture and be able to judge whether or not the 5% Con lead of the most recent YouGov was an outlier.

  2. First?

    I think Labour will fall back a couple of points briefly.

    Corbyn’s speech on Friday afternoon was excellent and hit the right balance…..but, I thought he came a cropper in the interview with Andrew Neil in the evening, especially with half of the latter being about the IRA.

  3. A truckload, oh my nerves.

  4. Will be interesting to see these. I agree with Mark that the Andrew Neil interview will likely have slowed the Labour momentum, although won’t be as badly received as May’s was.

    I don’t think the attack will have changed the allegiance of many. Most people will already have their thoughts behind it which will most likely resonate with the party leader.

    I predict an average of 8-9 point lead which will hold until election day now unless there is a scandal

  5. The Comres 12% lead suggests the return of some stability as well, despite the narrowing.

  6. Continued movement in poll of polls average

  7. Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 46% (-2)
    LAB: 34% (+4)
    LDEM: 8% (-2)
    UKIP: 5% (-)
    GRN: 2% (-1)

    (via @ComRes / 24 – 26 May)

  8. Oh sorry, just noticed it hadn’t been posted up:

    CON: 46% (-2)
    LAB: 34% (+4)
    LDEM: 8% (-2)
    UKIP: 5% (-)
    GRN: 2% (-1)

    (via @ComRes / 24 – 26 May)

  9. Direction is thing to watch. Agree the 5pt lead is probably an outlier, but its a measure of how much things have changed that we are even talking about Cons settling around an 8 pt lead. So I’ll be more interested to see which way momentum is flowing.

  10. I would say we have reached some stability now, probably the polls break and Neil savaging.

  11. On who is most likely to keep Britain safe from terrorism:

    T.May: 42%
    J.Corbyn: 16%

    On who is best to lead Britain’s negotiations over Brexit:

    T.May: 48%
    J.Corbyn: 18%

  12. Stability Rich? All polls tonight are indicating still considerable movement to Labour – unlikely not enough time to change the result but there’s not much stable with these results so far…

  13. Oh and Neil savaging? Feel your putting way to much weight on this interview in regards public interest! I consider myself a political nerd but had better things to do a lovely summer evening than watch that

  14. Let’s see what YouGov has to say. I can’t think of anything really advancing Labour in the same way as last weekend’s care fiasco/car crash interview.

  15. I thought June Whitfield and Victor Meldrew both did the best they could.

  16. I’ve been plotting all the Conservative poll leads on a graph and the difference between the volatility of results between pollsters is remarkable. With Opinium it’s almost a perfectly straight line going downwards, with TNS it jumps all over the place. ICM is a line going downwards with a suspicious jump in it half way through for no obvious reason. I guess it’s just random fluctuations, as I’ve only plotted the results since the election was called, it’s still quite striking though.

  17. With AN.

  18. Would be interesting to know what the raw figures are on some of these polls, too, when available.

  19. Clearly there’s movement across all the polls towards Labour, what I am interested in tonight is seeing the depth of that swing. The Opinium poll has it 45-35 with a swing of 3 to Lab, very modest compared to some of the other polls and hardly denting that big Tory lead.

    Suspect the Labour party will not consistently poll above 35 and that YouGov poll was an outlier, but I suppose we will see as the night goes on.

    There was a lot of received wisdom on here and in the media that have lazily predicted the annihilation of the Labour party because of Jeremy Corbyn, but 35+ would represent the best result for Labour since the Iraq War, and is a significant increase in the share of vote from 2005, 2010 and 2015. Whilst I highly doubt Jeremy Corbyn will ever be Prime Minister, if the Labour party can replicate some of the latest polls at the election he will maintain the vast majority of Labour’s seats (and meet Len McCluskey’s 200 seat minimum expectation) he will be able to hold his head high and consolidate his position, while the Labour right will be deeply discredited and weakened.

  20. Definitely stabilised for the Conservatives.

  21. How is the tactical voting effort going?

  22. I,m not sure how these really show a narrowing.. the Tory vote is holding in the md 40s and I bet if TM was offered 45 percent now she would take it. Looks
    Ike labour has peaked to me. What’s more interesting is the lib dems.. how many MPs can they get with 5 to 6 percent of the popular vote ? That’s worse than last time. I don’t get what s happened to them. At this s rate they maybe as low as 3 or 4 MPs I dunno where their vote has gone

  23. They’ve fallen in both polls ????

  24. On who ‘have the best policies for people like me and my family’:

    May and the Tories: 37%
    Corbyn and Labour: 42%

    (via @ComRes)

    This, however, should be a rather troubling finding for the Tories, since it’s the pound in the pocket that often seems to win elections.

  25. better PM:

    May 51

    Corbyn 30

    via ComRes

  26. Linked to AW’s piece from earlier today about methodology and adjustments to raw poll data following 2015 ComRes have added a little note:

    “In view of the large difference in perceptions between Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn, we have also run a second set of voting intention figures reallocating those who said they were undecided who to vote for, but who say they will vote, by who they think will make the best Prime Minister. When this preference for Prime Minister between Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn is taken into account, the Conservatives vote share rises to 48% and Labour’s falls to 33% – a Conservative lead of 15 points.”

    This is a nod towards the kind of “soft” measures that Matt Singh and Lord Ashcroft use in their analysis.

    Possibly also an attempt to get polling “error” excuses in early? If they had run a third set of VI without their demographic adjustments would probably have given a lead of 9 points given the huge polarization of VI by age group.

  27. Yes but it may be that Labour and Te Conservatives smash up huge majorities in seats they were going to win anyway and it still comes down to the hundred most marginal.
    For example, The Conservative vote in Aldridge and Brownhills will soar because Ukip has no candidaate this time. However in Walsall North Ukip are putting up big fight with candidate who got over 8000 votes two years ago and is a local and very active councillor. Ditto Walsall South. These are seats the Conservatives must win to get a 50 majority. If they fail to take both then we are looking at 2015 or 2010 numbers of seats. The word coalition or NoC looms. Rematch in September with new Conservative leader and more 2015 manifesto plus Brexit ?

  28. @smithy.

    Labour were rising fairly quickly a week ago, but what I meant is the bleeding has stemmed for the Tories, and whether it was a tough Neil interview or the break in the campaigning, 10-12 points looks like a stabilising now. If the trend of a week ago had continue, the other polls would be like the 6 point YouGov. That isn’t happening. Maybe it was the actual realisation of Corbyn becoming a realistic prospect that has concentrated minds. As I have said before, middle England doesn’t really do socialism, and I think that’s a fair comment based on the last 50 years elections.

  29. Rich – the fieldwork for these two polls was mostly before the Andrew Neil interview.

  30. Overall there is movement towards Labour, but the polls still show the Conservatives winning a comfortable majority. With less than two weeks to go before the election, I don’t foresee any further narrowing of the polld.

  31. On who ‘have the best policies for people like me and my family’:

    May and the Tories: 37%
    Corbyn and Labour: 42%

    (via @ComRes)

    —————

    This is what comes of strategists thinking: “Lets come up with some tough sounding policies, ones that meet the accusation we are bribing the elderly, and only hit voters who won’t go anywhere else…”

    This is what a Guardian columnist thought of the public response to Labour’s manifesto – writing just after the Tory manifesto, but fractionally before the social care story became dominant:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/may/19/british-voters-rejecting-santa-embracing-scrooge-labour-popularity

  32. I can’t see how these polls can change much in the next week and a half. What new ca Corbyn come out with and he hasn’t tried already. The social care issue seems to be over with.. I see today’s he’s banging on about grass roots football … sure sign he’s running out of new things to grab a headline

  33. RICH

    All governments from 1945 to 1979 followed a broadly socialist policy agenda of mass nationalisation and very high income tax brackets for the rich. What we call the ‘postwar consensus’.

  34. Rich – if anything from last year told us, historical comparisons are for the birds – not saying Labour are in the game in regards winning or even stopping a healthish majority but get a sense of your political preferences are clouding this view somewhat

  35. @Alienated Labour

    I suspect even if Corbyn defied expectations and surpassed Kinnock/Miliband/Brown (and Blair’s 2005 result) the Labour Right/PLP as well as the media would be gunning for him to step down.

    There’s a number of things at stake for them – a compliant, media-friendly leader, the received wisdom since 1983 that any remotely left-wing manifesto is instantly a vote loser and finally the McDonnell amendment long been scheduled for a conference vote in the Autumn which will decide if the PLP can retain their power to screen out the lefties within leadership contests going forward.

  36. @ BARNABY MARDER – ComRes give the raw data. Open up the tabs and on p13 you’ll see the VI data.

    POSTAL VOTES

    ComRes have also included postal vote data. Small sample so all usual caveats apply but working out the %s you get:
    CON 48%
    LAB 36%
    LIB 9%
    UKIP 5%
    GREEN 1%
    SNP 2%

    Does anyone know if postal votes more/less likely to include a certain type of voter (e.g. student, armed services, etc.). Anything we should read into that info?

  37. On who would make a better Prime Minister:

    T. May: 51%
    J. Corbyn: 30%

    (via @ComRes)
    ————————

    If people no longer think the concept of Corbyn as PM is ridiculous, then it is surely better to play the ball and not the man.

    Say, “You’ve voted against all terrorist legislation, so what do you think the legislation should be”, don’t say, “You’ve voted against all terrorist legislation, because you like terrorists…”

  38. I think this site and comments is making a mistake with so much focus on the top line figures after weighting all kinds of figures.

    This is not a normal general election, therefore most of the ‘old rules’ aka assumptions need not apply. eg in various polls over the month DNKs has fallen from 18-20% down to 14-15% levels. In a couple of quality polls (apples to apples) in the last week period Labour’s gains was 3% and the DNKs fell 3% while all others were steady.

    There are other lines pointing to the top line figures not being an accurate projection of what has and is happening in people’s decision making processes. The data numbers are too small for every party except lab/con/ld and DNK.

    DNV in Brexit was +11%. Polling avg projection in GE is 4%, enough to swing the entire election on it’s head if they break predominantly one way – leaning Remain and anything but Tory/UKIP.

    Youth turnout vs Brexit will be much higher in this GE and very pro-remain & labour, by how much who knows? The DNKs and the DNV (last time) will decide this GE now as everyone else knows who they will be voting for already.
    and leader popularity is irrelevant as it is not a genuine driver this GE but more a reflection of the media hype +/-.

    imo forget the combined topline numbers (especially aggregates) and dig down into the data details for hints which way the wind is blowing. Surprising ‘acts of god’ or fate notwithstanding.

  39. I think, based on the fact that my Social Media has gone rather quiet with pro-Corbyn posts (even the most partisan of people haven’t posted today) as he is torn apart by the media for his speech and Dianna Abbot’s latest gaffe “exposing” Corbyn as a liar, I’d be very surprised if the polls don’t reflect this and show a small decline in the Labour results. It SEEMS (to my little bubble of the world anyway, so anecdotally if you will) that the speech was not particularly well received and Abbot’s gaffe is the nail in the coffin. Some-one has said that this could be Labour’s “Dementia Tax”..

    It’ll be interesting to see what the PM opinions would do to final results and whether you may have a Labour supporter at heart deciding to vote for The Conservatives come polling day based on who would make a better PM. Does this happen? (are they called “shy Tories”?)

  40. The Tory slogan is “strong and stable”, but it is difficult to maintain consistency and this is undermining the message; could this be why the Tory lead has diminished?

    Publicised examples include May’s semi U-turn over the “dementia” tax, M.Fallon attacking something the B.Johnson had previously said and on Any Questions, D.Davis arguing against what he had said at the time of publication of the Chilcot enquiry that “the decision to go to war (in Iraq) was part of a cascade of mistakes that resulted in …. an increased risk of terrorism at home.”

  41. Thanks for the post, Antony.

    I would be interested to see some numbers for transfers, direct or indirect, from Tory to Labour.

    ISTM that Labour are scooping up some LibDem votes, the few Greens available, and possibly a higher proportion of UKIP defectors.

    The Tory vote seems solid apart from a couple of percent.

    It will be interesting to see whether May’s missteps have much impact on places where Working class old Labour does not like

    Eg round here what will happen to Dennis the Menace, Alan Meale and Gloria.

  42. @Phil

    There was still a belief (more so a hope) in 2015 that they wouldn’t receive the promised kicking, and they hadn’t actually lost the millions of voters they’d steadily built up since the 1970’s breakthrough.

    Now the Liberals have reverted to where they were pre-1974 and so voters are left with the knowledge a vote for the Liberals in all but a minority of seats is a wasted vote. Beyond a committed bedrock of Liberals they’ve always had, the rest will be going Labour/Tory depending on their preferences.

  43. Tories baseline is 42. Labour maxing at 38. Probably end up 45-35. Think the silent Tory vote will be cancelled by the young vote. Assuming Theresa survives, she’ll learn for 2022 election.

  44. UKIP holding steady, is that their floor for this election? Or will the police numbers issue push them a bit higher

  45. Trevor Warne:

    I am struggling to find the ComRes tabs, are they in the link that Anthony posted? If not can you link to them directly please?

  46. We all knew the result of Brexit and the US presidential election. And we were all wrong.

    I still expect a Tory victory and a marginally increased majority. But I am prepared for the unexpected. Voters are not behaving ‘normally’.

  47. @Mike
    ‘Those polls are huge Tory wins, whatever the Labour vote is doing.’
    Depends what you have in mind! On the basis of a uniform swing a Tory lead of 12% implies 21 gains from Labour compared with 2015. A 10% Tory lead of 10% would suggest 14 gains from Labour. None of this makes any allowance for the first term incumbency likely to be enjoyes by 12 – 15 of the Labour MPs at risk – or of the fact that the GB Tory lead will be boosted by by their strong performance in Scotland. As a result, the swing in England & Wales will be somewhat lower than the headline GB figures.

  48. The sorts of numbers that are coming out now suggest a result close to 1987. Notwithstanding any more exceptional events we are looking at a 60-100 seat majority for TM.

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