Saturday night polls

We should have a truckload of polls tonight. There is a new Opinium, a new ComRes for the Indy & Sunday Mirror, YouGov for the Sunday Times, probably an ORB and perhaps an ICM for the Sun on Sunday. I’ve seen rumours of Survation too (they normally poll for the Mail on Sunday) and we’re overdue a Panelbase poll. The thing to look for is whether polls continue to show a narrowing of the Conservative lead – keep an eye on the fieldwork dates, more recent polls could be showing an impact from reactions to the bombing (or, indeed, the effects of the dementia tax row fading). Also remember the house effects I wrote about earlier – ICM and ComRes tend to show larger Tory leads anyway, so even if they show a significant movement towards Labour it may still leave the Tories with a good lead.

The first poll we actually have figures for is Opinium, who have topline figures of CON 45%(-1), LAB 35%(+2), LDEM 7%(-1), UKIP 5%(nc). Changes are from the previous week and fieldwork was on Tuesday and Wednesday, so just after the Manchester bombing but before political campaigning had resumed. We have movement towards Labour, but the Conservatives still managing to cling onto a double-digit lead. Tabs are here.

ComRes for the Sunday Mirror and Independent have topline figures of CON 46%(-2), LAB 34%(+4), LDEM 8%(-2), UKIP 5%(nc). Changes are from a fortnight ago, and fieldwork was between Wednesday and Friday. The Tory lead has dropped by six points, but ComRes tends to give the Conservatives some of their better figures, so this still leaves them with a twelve point lead. Tabs are here.

ORB for the Telegraph have topline figures of CON 44%(-2), LAB 38%(+4), LDEM 7%(nc), UKIP 5%(-2). Changes are from a week ago and fieldwork was Wednesday to Thursday. Once again, we have a narrowing of the Tory lead, in this case down to six points.

YouGov for the Sunday Times have topline figures of CON 43%(nc), LAB 36%(-2), LDEM 9%(-1), UKIP 4%(nc). Changes are from the Times poll earlier in the week and fieldwork was Thursday to Friday. This is the most recent of the polls we’ve seen so far tonight, and it has Labour falling back a bit from the YouGov poll in the week. That said, it is only one poll, so don’t read too much into that unless we see other polls showing a similar pattern.

ICM for the Sun on Sunday has toplines of CON 46%(-1), LAB 32%(-1), LDEM 8%(-1), UKIP 5%(+1). Fieldwork was on Wednesday to Friday, and changes are since the ICM/Guardian poll conducted over last weekend. Changes here seem quite steady (ICM’s previous poll already showed a sharp narrowing of the lead). As I said earlier, ICM and ComRes tend to show the largest Tory leads because of their demographic based turnout model.

I’ll update this post through the evening as other polls appear.


1,864 Responses to “Saturday night polls”

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  1. @ExileinYorks

    Looks like the prediction I made a few days ago :)

  2. Corbyn has just been on the One Show. Now, I know that most UKPR posters are ardent Emmerdale fans, but it was well worth watching.

    I’m not a great admirer of Corbyn as a politician, and think he was a bad choice as Labour leader, but there is absolutely no doubt that he is a very nice human being, utterly comfortable in his own skin. Football, jam making, allotments, manhole covers; what on earth is there not to like amongst that little lot?

    The irony of the personal attacks on Corbyn, claiming him to be some anti-British enemy within in is that he is, when you study him closely, a quintessential Englishman, right down to his bootstraps. His quirky little hobbies, his endearing idiosyncrasies and his gentle self deprecating humour. I recognise in him the England I love.

    He isn’t going to win, and may well ending up losing quite badly, but he’s coming out of this, personally, very well indeed. I’m beginning to slightly admire the old chap.

    Keep going to the end Jeremy.

  3. @ Jim Jam

    You could well be right – there isn’t a lot in it, and I didn’t weight heavily for candidate effects.

  4. Danny

    I don’t think analysing a single interview is a very useful thing to do. Its all about the general narrative, it say its less Labour Friendly this week than last.

    Tories had the disasters last week, labour having a hiccup this week so far.

    I don’t know why everyone gets so exited about individual moments, See the whole or the bigger picture!

  5. @AlexW
    “Corbyn does the debate and announces Abbot will not in his cabinet.”

    No chance. He and Abbott go back a very, very long way, she’s been very loyal to him, and apparently they were once even in a relationship. He’s not the backstabbing kind of person as far as I can tell. He will stand by her politically just as will she him.

  6. It would be rude of Jeremy to say that Diane would not be in his cabinet when we understand he has been in Diane’s cabinet.

    Ok AW fair enough I will get my coat.

  7. @ LmzDee

    It is the Sunderland seats that are very early to declare.

    If memory serves Middlesborough and Middlesborough South come in around 2 am

  8. GB………If not her cabinet, certainly her drawers….see you in the cloakroom. ;-)

  9. @Crossbat11

    I watched the Paxman/Studio interviews, and I watched the body language of the audience carefully.

    I thought that the audience warmed much more to Corbyn than to May. I don’t if that makes any difference to the GE result, but I think the public have warmed more to him than the two previous Labour leaders.

  10. @ CMJ

    I didn’t copy your homework – I promise. :-)

  11. New thread (though no new polls).

  12. @CROSSBAT11

    Well said. JC: nice chap, wrong job.

    As for what happens now, I think the die is cast. I cant see the polls getting significantly closer, possibly starting to go back whence they came. But May’s wobble and Labours comparatively great campaign will have served to scare any complacency out of Tory voters who thought there was no need to turn out. They will, especially after hearing more of the backstory of JC and his close associates, and the atmosphere of questionable financial acumen that both he, Abbott and others have done nothing to counter. May refocussing on brexit in the home stretch will remind people what this election is primarily about; I think there are many who will vote Tory just to get brexit in spite of all other concerns. And whilst a lot of people are unimpressed with the social care fiasco I think there are also many who will at least agree with May that this is a major issue and it is wrong to shy away from it. Her insistence that we have to face up to these issues will get her some grudging respect.

    In the end I expect May to get a 100+ majority easily. I think UKIP will do even worse than the polls say, with virtually all their past voters going straight to Con. They will do it solely for brexit. But Labour will do well enough for JC to remain until a time of his choosing to move aside. Getting a respectable result and especially one that is better (vote share wise) than either Miliband or Brown will secure his place as a respected Labour leader, if never PM.

  13. Phew.

  14. @somerjohn

    Yes, stubbornness and willingness to endure are certainly part of the NI psychological makeup –on both sides. Another comment from the Walker blog is, I think, apposite to your earlier observation. It is made in response to a suggestion that “soft” unionists might be willing to accept a United Ireland. Here it is: “Not a chance. Historically and politically their arses have been pulled from the fire at the last minute so many times that its psychologically in their nature to be obdurate, even at their own expense, to the last. The only question is how many will continue with this obduracy after the vote. A great many I think.”

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