Two polls are out tonight. A Kantar poll conducted between last Thursday and Sunday (so before the bombing) has topline figures of CON 42%(-5), LAB 34%(+5), LDEM 9%(+1), UKIP 4%(-2). TNS has a turnout model based partially on age, so has tended to show larger Tory leads… but this poll has it dropping ten points and falling into single figures. Tabs are here.

YouGov’s weekly poll for the Times meanwhile has topline figures of CON 43%(-1), LAB 38%(+3), LDEM 10%(+1), UKIP 4%(+1) – a Tory lead of just five points. Fieldwork for this poll was conducted on Wednesday night and Thursday daytime, so is the first conducted entirely after the Manchester bombing. Tabs are here.

The Tory lead is clearly continuing to fall away at a rapid rate. On the face of it one might be tempted to conclude that the actual impact of the bombing was to help the Labour party, but I think it more likely that it’s to do with the disastrous Tory manifesto launch. I posted earlier about the negative impact of the Tory manifesto. In contrast the Tories still seem to have a good lead on security and terrorism – in today’s YouGov survey people say they trust Theresa May far more than Jeremy Corbyn to make the right decisions on terrorism (55% trust May, only 33% trust Corbyn) and the Tories have a strong lead on the issue of Defence and Security. That suggests to me the cause of the narrowing is far more likely to be the manifesto, row and u-turn.

As ever, all the usual caveats about one poll apply. Before one gets too excited wait and see if other polls show such a tight race, and whether or not other polls show any more impact from the bombing. As things stand though the election suddenly seems a little less of a foregone conclusion than it appeared at the beginning of the race.


915 Responses to “Kantar and YouGov show the race narrowing…”

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  1. FWIW I thought Corbyn did well as I said earlier Ireland is at peace so even folk that lived through the troubles – know that it was sorted out & Corbyn probably played a part in finally achieving peace, I felt that part might have advantaged Corbyn because it related his speech today to the Irish peace process.

    Trident pretty well known position, not happy but following Labour Party policy.

    The weakest point was paying for renationalising Corbyn struggles but Neil moved on – it might have been more fruitful for the Conservatives if this line of economic competence had been persued.

  2. @CMJ

    “He seems to have one goal – pick at scabs until they bleed. You don’t learn much useful or positive in his interviews.”

    Yes, but I like his impartiality. He’s like that with everyone. We know he’s a Conservative but it doesn’t show in his interviews. On that alone I wish there were many others like him.

  3. popeye

    Your post [following my earlier ones looking at similar issues] strikes me as making incontrovertible points and was really well written.

    Basically there is no central “truth” in any religion – how can there be? – but provided people get on with their differing beliefs without wishing to interfere in the lives, beliefs or habits of others that causes me no problem.

    I would add that no modern state should allow for faith schools but should, perhaps, teach comparative faiths alongside evolution etc and leave it to the children to decide for themselves which path they wish to take when they are adults.

    But intolerance can’t just work one way only. If people genuinely believe that enjoying pop music is more sinful than slitting people’s throats and posting the resulting video online then, clearly, we have one hell of a problem.

  4. RAF

    @”Which is the better (or worse) approach?”

    I asked myself that question-and failed to get an answer.

  5. Andrew Neil: “Isn’t the truth that basically you supported the armed struggle for a United Ireland but now you want to be Prime Minister you have to distance yourself from it?”
    Corbyn: (Nods head) No.

    Last time I saw that was when Brillo interviewed Shami about her elevation to the Lords and he asked her whether her gong was linked to her anti-semitism report – 3 times she said No and 3 times she nodded as she said it.

    Do these people not get media training for this kind of thing?

  6. The objective for Labour must be to hobble the Conservatives. Leaving them to twist in the wind before another election would be a good outcome for them.

    Winning the election, let alone a working majority must be too much of a stretch.

  7. @Tony Dean

    Are we talking about members of Sinn Fein or the IRA? Former IRA members in Sinn Fein, would still be Sinn Fein members and not IRA members.

  8. laszlo

    “Paul
    I forgot to add: I would plagiarise that sentence.”

    No problem – usual royalties.

  9. Paul Croft
    “Basically there is no central “truth” in any religion…”

    The problem is, the adherents believe that there is, sometimes extremely passionately. Those who themselves up believe the truth of their religion.

  10. @TONY DEAN

    Guido Fawkes is good at his propaganda ha, how much is accurate is questionable. I agree on the latter meetings. But I think it’s the …

    ‘In 1984, two weeks after the Brighton bombing, Corbyn invited two members of the Provisional IRA, Linda Quigley and Gerard McLoughlin, to parliament. MacLochlainn was a close friend of Corbyn. In 1981 he served two and a half years in jail for conspiracy to cause explosions…’

    The young won’t really care, older voters will remember it and after Manchester might pause to think about who they are voting for.

  11. DRMIBBLES
    “Expectations of Corbyn are low so it’s almost impossible for interviews like this to further erode his ratings”

    Do you mean expectations of his performance under hostile questioning by a thuggish interviewer; or expectations of him as a potential PM?
    If the polls (so far) are anything to go by, JC’s ratings may count less than the substance of his policies and the manifesto; ditto the Neil interview.
    My feeling is that the polls are indicating that the country is in a mood to respond mainly to policy and his trustworthiness, and to him as being sincere in what he says he is seeking.
    As I think McDonnell said “We’ve had enough of big guys.” Let’s see.

  12. Im feeling slightly less excited and a bit less terrified. Of course I want labour to do well but I’m expecting Brexit to be a horrific mess and I’d rather the Tories got the rap for that. Still looking like con majority, around 50 or just under

  13. pete b

    “Paul Croft
    “Basically there is no central “truth” in any religion…”

    The problem is, the adherents believe that there is, sometimes extremely passionately”

    Well yes, that was my precise point…… [actually it’s worse: they “know”.]

    “Those who themselves up believe the truth of their religion.”

    Sorry, no comprende.

  14. I have only seen TM and JC being interviewed, I think it could be argued they were both head-on car crashes. Has Tim Farron had his turn?

  15. @RO27

    The old probably won’t know or even care who Guido Fawkes is and may just confuse him with the chap involved in the Gunpowder Plot!

  16. @ RO27

    Yes, there is no doubt that back then he had empathy for the republican cause although he always counselled them to begin a peaceful political settlement. Apparently I heard that he invited the ex IRA members who had served their jail sentences as part of a working group making enquiries about prison conditions in NI. If so, he may have a plausible defence?

  17. Paul Croft

    But intolerance can’t just work one way only. If people genuinely believe that enjoying pop music is more sinful than slitting people’s throats and posting the resulting video online then, clearly, we have one hell of a problem…

    That kind of sums it up for me…not just our country but anyone who refuses to live the life they want us to lead and not just the people in the West…..

    I saw on the news today that 28 Coptic Christians were killed in Egypt, NO group owned up before but the report says that IS have done this sort of thing before…

    That’s why we need the right people in Government because Yes, we have one hell of a problem and it may not be going away anytime soon…

  18. Nothing partisan intended, I intend to vote Conservative. I’ve posted on this before but I am going to again suggest that Andy Burnham is a class, class act. On QT last night he was fair and measured and again today when diplomatically disagreeing with Corbyn’s point of view expressed in his speech. I can quite easily see him as Labour Leader in a decade or so having first distinguished himself as Mayor of Manchester. And at that point, if it hasn’t happened before, I can see him leading Labour to a General Election victory.

  19. I think the Conservatives might go for Corbyn and others now in the light of this interview, but they have to get the tone absolutely right. Wasn’t sure before but there was enough meat provided by AN, and JC’s slight fumble when he tried to avoid the word ‘borrowing’ when referencing a bond issue may well assist as and when they return to the economy. May’s performance has already been built into the polling, and probably no-one can remember anything she said. (oh yes, ‘strong and stable’)

  20. Colin,
    “I think you’re determination to excuse IS attacks on European countries because of “western” military intervention, or “western ” unemployment -or “western” anything , has blinded you to the facts about this bunch of murderous religious fanatics & there low life zombie army.”

    I really cannot understand why people have such difficulty over all this. Angels and pins and all that.

    If i find a wasps nest and poke a stick in it, they will come out and attack. Its so simple. The more anyone says these people are insane indoctrinated nutters, the more true the wasp analogy becomes. If we intervene, they will react. Just who is to blame if you end up in casualty beause you stuck a stick in the wasp’s nest and waited to see what would happen?

  21. @Ian

    “That’s why we need the right people in Government because Yes, we have one hell of a problem and it may not be going away anytime soon…”

    But who are the right people? If we want to see terrorism eventually eradicated, we need to seek out those who can help solve the problems. Obama killed thousands by drone attacks. Did that help?

    TM and JC are offering different approaches to the problem. There is no guarantee that either will work. It therefore comes down to a preference as to which approach you prefer. Opinion will be divided on the matter.

  22. R Huckle – “I am not saying their actions are justified by western intervention, but i can imagine why they have ended doing what they have, because in an internet age they are seeing graphic videos of their people dying due to western actions.”

    The problem with this analysis is that you are assuming that the Manchester terrorist was unhappy about the UK’s intervention in Libya,

    BUT – his parents fled to the UK to escape Gaddafi in the 1990’s and were thrilled at his overthrow, moving back to Libya in 2011 to join the fight against Gadaffi, and it looks like Abedi was also took part in the Libyan revolution against gadaffi, that was the thing that radicalised him – fighting against gadaffi.

    So it isn’t the intervention of the west in toppling of gadaffi that “provoked” him, he was happy about that.

    Rather, his family were always radical muslims, and they taught him to be one too, and they were just using us and harbouring hatred towards us all the while.

    If the UK made a mistake, it was John Major’s govt giving his family asylum. I guess people back then remembered Gadaffi as the man who got all those people killed in Lockerbie, and felt sorry for anyone opposing him.

    But the reality was that Gadaffi was a terrorist (270 killed in lockerbie), but his opponents were also terrorists, just a different shade of terrorist,

    Our mistake was to feel sorry for them and allow them into Britain. But I don’t think John Major meant any harm, he thought he was doing the kindly thing. This is the problem with casting blame with hindsight, everyone at the time acted with the best intentions.

  23. The idea that any votes will shift because of some Sinn Fein meetings in the 1980s is pretty ‘lol’ as the recently youthful would say on their mobile textual communication devices

  24. Candy, Libya wasn’t responsible for Lockerbie. It was Syria.

  25. I would think one consequence of Mr Corbyn’s intervention speech will probably be at least in the right wing press at least the legitimacy of bringing up his and fellow collages myriad involvements and associations with not just the I.R.A but also HAMAS.

  26. SHELTS

    “The old probably won’t know or even care who Guido Fawkes is and may just confuse him with the chap involved in the Gunpowder Plot”

    Guilty as charged.

  27. Marco Flynn, Make collages not war?

  28. DRMIBBLES
    The idea that any votes will shift because of some Sinn Fein meetings in the 1980s is pretty ‘lol’ as the recently youthful would say on their mobile textual communication devices

    Yet strangely all these young left wing people are experts on Thatcher…

  29. S Thomas
    ‘ The Care manifesto issue is one for the anoraks.They are not changing, melting away etc The tory crisis is rubbish. ‘

    Labour is surely going to run with the Dementia Tax and the Winter Fuel Paymwnts again before Polling Day!

  30. Well, I know that the Thatcher government secretly talked to the IRA and that one of their agents ran the IRA “Nutting Squad”.

    So despite only being a child at the time, I do know quite a bit about Thatcher.

  31. RAF

    But who are the right people? If we want to see terrorism eventually eradicated, we need to seek out those who can help solve the problems…

    I agree with your comments re choice of leader…

    The problem with IS is that they don’t want anything apart from their GOD to rule over everyone…how can you compromise with this…they don’t want anything else…that’s why they want their soldiers in our country so one day they can take over…

  32. Is there a poll tonight?

  33. @drmibbles

    According to wiki, it was Libya:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pan_Am_Flight_103

    Gadaffi was a terrorost. But his opponents were terrorists too.

    Those who claim Gaddaffi was a fine man are wrong, but those who sympathise with his opponents are wrong too.

    I totally understand those who say we shouldn’t intervene in other countries – but I don’t get why they gloss over the horrible things people like gadaffi do. Or why they claim we are responsible for both gadaffi’s behaviour and the behavior of his opponents.

    We’re responsible for neither and the correct response is to wash our hands off the lot of them.

    We need to put in a travel ban and forbid anyone from the UK going to either Libya or Syria (and why would any normal person want to visit warzones anyway?). And anyone who defies the govt and goes anyway, shouldn’t be let back in, because they will have become radicalised, They made their decision to go there, let them rot there.

  34. I did not see the Corbyn interview – other than the Trident clip on the BBC website – but wonder whether an effective response to any aggression from Andrew Neil might have been ‘ Well, of course Andrew, in the days that you were working for Tory Central Office …’

  35. @Ian

    “The problem with IS is that they don’t want anything apart from their GOD to rule over everyone…how can you compromise with this…they don’t want anything else…that’s why they want their soldiers in our country so one day they can take over…”

    You can’t. It’s not about their “god”. It’s about them. The religious dimension is misunderstood. They just want total dominance over everyone and everything. It’s pretty nihilistic.

    Eventually, they will fall apart because they will start turning on each other (this is already happening in some places).

  36. lord Ashcroft latest con majority 142 , how wrong can he be?

  37. P.S. I understand that rthe IRA and Gadaffi were allies and Gadaffi funded the IRA – is this the reason why the Corbynistas are glossing over the 270 Lockerbie deaths and pretending Gadaffi was a fine man?

    270 is more than ten times the deaths in Manchester, and it’s understandable that those who lived through that attrocity felt Gadaffi was pure evil.

  38. So many experts in Islamic fundamentalists on this site, does everyone work for MI5 etc?

  39. RAF

    Eventually, they will fall apart because they will start turning on each other (this is already happening in some places).

    Hope you’re right…cheers

  40. @DRMIBBLES

    Heaven forbid anyone has a different leaning, opinion or theory to you.

    I honestly look forward to when the results are in on 9 June and most of what you have said on the forum proves to be utter drivel.

  41. @Candy

    “I totally understand those who say we shouldn’t intervene in other countries – but I don’t get why they gloss over the horrible things people like gadaffi do. Or why they claim we are responsible for both gadaffi’s behaviour and the behavior of his opponents.”

    Many people don’t excuse Gaddafi. He was a typical brutal dictator who killed thousands. But your right that he wasn’t a pawn of the CIA, unlike Saddam and the Shah of Iran (and many many more).

    Herein lies the problem. Our interference isn’t just military. It’s via intelligence agencies and the like. Of course everyone else does that too.

  42. @CR

    “So many experts in Islamic fundamentalists on this site, does everyone work for MI5 etc?”

    Not at the moment. Lol :)

    I’m a Muslim. Does that make my opinion on the subject of any greater value than that of anyone else? I like to think so. But probably not!

  43. Bantams,

    re. Andrew Neil interviews

    As I recall it was going to be Nuttall on Tuesday, Farron on Wednesday and Sturgeon on Thursday. Now it seems Sturgeon will be on Sunday 28th, Nuttall on Monday 29th, and Farron on Thursday 1st

  44. @Andrew111

    If so, Nuttall’s received a bad draw. There’s a Corbyn v May interview show on Monday. Actually, on second thoughts, he’s had a result!

  45. @ RO27

    Re: John Major. Yes, I was lucky enough to know him quite well and Norma and his then baby daughter Elizabeth. He was a superb PPC in St Pancras North where I then lived and served as Young Conservative Chairman. He was also a really kind and thoughtfully generous man one to one, and he and Norma have always remained a much-loved part of my life history of experiences in getting to know people within all three major parties well. I have to be honest with you and tell you that my political colour then was due to parental influence, and I later joined the Liberals at College and went on to serve in their national organisation as a regional agent. However, I left them after they entered the Coalition, and in 2012 got active in my Trade Union at work. This led me on into the wider Labour Party of which I am now a member. My brother was summed me up as “A Tory by birth, a Liberal by instinct, and a Labour man by experience”.
    All this has left me with a legacy of being fond of many individuals in all three parties, and I also happen to like the traditions of all three despite my current allegiance. I therefore find it easy to empathise with people from all three traditions and know where they are coming from.

  46. @Tony Dean

    Really interesting story. Anthony should ask you to assist him with moderation of our comments.

  47. Marco Flynn

    Ashcroft maybe not that far out. Even today the guardian suggests tom Watson the deputy leader is in some trouble in his seat in West Bromwich. They usually have to send search parties out for Tory voters in that seat so if that is anywhere near true plenty of other seats are much more vulnerable

  48. Paul Croft
    Sorry, of course I meant:
    “Those who BLOW themselves up believe the truth of their religion.”

    Candy
    “We’re responsible for neither and the correct response is to wash our hands off the lot of them.”

    Exactly. There’s about 8 different sides in the Syria/Iraq conflict. How do we decide which one to back? As far as I can see they’re all murderous madmen.

  49. CR

    “So many experts in Islamic fundamentalists on this site, does everyone work for MI5 etc?”

    That’s a bit snide. I don’t think anyone has claimed to be an “expert” but has just offered up their personal views and observations.

    I’ve certainly done both that and said that I haven’t a clue as to how we move forward – except that, helpfully, I wouldn’t have started from here……………………………

  50. RO27

    I’m on record as predicting a moderate Tory majority (20-40) as the most likely GE outcome.

    My point about Sinn Fein meetings not shifting voting intention remains. No-one mentions it in polling when asked about key issues. It does not become a factor in voting intention just because you want to make it one.

    I said the same thing recently about the Manchester bombing and I recall you saying similar things in response. The difference is I base my opinions on polling evidence, be it current or historic, and you appear to rely more on your ‘gut feel’ – which is fine.

    But you were wrong about Manchester and your wish that Sinn Fein meetings 30 years ago will impact VI are just that – a wish, with no basis in evidence.

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