Two polls are out tonight. A Kantar poll conducted between last Thursday and Sunday (so before the bombing) has topline figures of CON 42%(-5), LAB 34%(+5), LDEM 9%(+1), UKIP 4%(-2). TNS has a turnout model based partially on age, so has tended to show larger Tory leads… but this poll has it dropping ten points and falling into single figures. Tabs are here.

YouGov’s weekly poll for the Times meanwhile has topline figures of CON 43%(-1), LAB 38%(+3), LDEM 10%(+1), UKIP 4%(+1) – a Tory lead of just five points. Fieldwork for this poll was conducted on Wednesday night and Thursday daytime, so is the first conducted entirely after the Manchester bombing. Tabs are here.

The Tory lead is clearly continuing to fall away at a rapid rate. On the face of it one might be tempted to conclude that the actual impact of the bombing was to help the Labour party, but I think it more likely that it’s to do with the disastrous Tory manifesto launch. I posted earlier about the negative impact of the Tory manifesto. In contrast the Tories still seem to have a good lead on security and terrorism – in today’s YouGov survey people say they trust Theresa May far more than Jeremy Corbyn to make the right decisions on terrorism (55% trust May, only 33% trust Corbyn) and the Tories have a strong lead on the issue of Defence and Security. That suggests to me the cause of the narrowing is far more likely to be the manifesto, row and u-turn.

As ever, all the usual caveats about one poll apply. Before one gets too excited wait and see if other polls show such a tight race, and whether or not other polls show any more impact from the bombing. As things stand though the election suddenly seems a little less of a foregone conclusion than it appeared at the beginning of the race.


915 Responses to “Kantar and YouGov show the race narrowing…”

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  1. Not unreasonable to assume Brexit will involve a huge financial hit, at least in the medium term, followed sooner or later by a ‘correction’ of world markets. I think a lot of left-leaning voters will be feeling quite conflicted about now. Excited that the gap seems to be narrowing – but anxious to see a poison chalice raised slowly to JC’s lips…

    I still think TM will get a majority of 12. ;)

  2. Supposing one were to agree that brexit were a poisoned chalice – it isn’t inevitable that the next government, Con or Lab, will drink from that chalice. What they may choose to do is to arrange for a two or three year transition period that cushions the country from impact, and call the next election six months before the expiry of the transitional arrangements.

  3. @ John Pilgrim

    Is it possible to cut off money and arms to ISIL ?

    I should imagine it would be very difficult, if not impossible. I don’t think people realise just how many armament stocks are held in the region. And so many borders for money and arms to cross.

    If Corbyn was advised that military force had to be used by advisors to government, as well as international partners, then it would be difficult to say no.

    The problem with the UN security council has always been Russia blocking any authorisation. Russia will only ever agree if it serves their interests.

  4. Yesterday I had a message up (3.44 pm) about being undecided how to vote in the West Aberdeenshire & Kincard constituency and BT asks (4.49 pm) gave an accurate summing up of the past results, plus opining that this was a very likely Tory gain from SNP.

    And that it was definitely not a LibDem possibility. On this I increasingly agree with BT asks. We have received no leaflets yet from the LibDems since the locals, and on a drive in and out of Aberdeen by two routes yesterday I saw no LibDem diamonds. ? deliberate lack of fight?

    But in view of the polling narrowing and the many comments here about the unpopularity of the Tory manifesto, I now think the Tory swing that was shown in the locals will have been reduced.

    So this seat is on an SNP/Tory knife-edge.

    Here the Tory problem is a different manifestation of R. Huckle view (@ 7.40 am) that the Tory message is too basic. What we have in leaflets and outdoor large blue boards is merely “Vote Bowie to oppose a Second Referendum”.

    What we ought to be getting is Bowie`s views on Brexit, how to ease its problems, public-sector recruitment, his Green activity, and some idea of his capability as an MP.

    We know nothing on this, yet. Whereas for the Scottish Parliament election the Tory that won in 2016 had been campaigning for months very actively. We knew his very Green credentials in having set up biomass heating for many new houses on the family estate.

    And in contrast our SNP candidate is the sitting MP now known to us, and IMO one of the better performers of the new tranche of SNP MPs.

    I would also add that opposing a second referendum is not a high priority for many voters in the NE. We are all fully aware of the downturn in oil and gas, and with prices staying quite low, a YES vote seems most unlikely meantime.

  5. My prediction for tonights Yougov is

    CON 43
    LAB 37
    LD 9
    UKIP 4

  6. what polls are up today?

  7. @R Huckle,
    There are different kinds of terrorist in a way. Both Con and Lab gifts found it fruitful to open dialogue with the IRA, which eventually led to the GFA.
    Isil is a different kettle of fish. No one is suggesting negotiating with them. Corbyn said there need to be Syria peace talks but I do not believe he was proposing to include Isil in the negotiations. Presumably if the other parties to the conflict reached a deal then either support for Isil would gradually ebb or the other parties could at least form a united front against them and all target their weapons in the same direction.

  8. new fred

  9. Charles

    Thanks for the expansion of your point. Very sane, and definitely a possible scenario.
    I don’t like it much either!

  10. R HUCKLE

    @” Failed states that have been bombed to bits create a space for terrorist groups to take hold and recruit people in desperate circumstances.”

    This analysis is severely flawed.

    IS in Syria & Iraq consists largely of foreign fighters. 25,000 at one count ( perhaps less now!!). The larger contingents are from Tunisia, Saudi, Jordan, Morocco, France & Lebanon-in that order. Germany, UK & USA have provided recruits too.

    Baghdadi announced the merger of his forces in Iraq and Syria and the creation of “Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant” (Isis).in April 2013.His strategy was greatly facilitated by the Obama administration’s December 2011 withdrawal from Iraq and the anti-Sunni policies pursued by the Shiite-dominated government in Baghdad. ISIS’s project was further aided by the Syrian uprising, which began in March 2011. What gave ISIS room to take hold and blossom is the Iranian-backed order of the Levant, consisting of Hezbollah in Lebanon, Bashar al-Assad in Syria, and Nuri al-Maliki and his successor, Haidar al Abadi, in Iraq. All these are sustained by the Shiite Islamic revolutionary regime in Tehran.

    Of course the collapse of order in post conflict Iraq has created the space for IS. But it is simplistic to conclude that it gave rise to that entity.Indeed if “failed state” is to be on your list of causes-you would be better directed to the Syrian uprising & Russio/Iranian supression of it.

    The enslavement of the Yazidi women & all the other brutal supressions of non-Sunni residents in Mosul, Raqqa & the rest of the “caliphate” have nothing whatsoever to do with “western foreign policy”.

    Where your search for “desperate” people might be better served is in the countries of Europe where IS recruits a different army-disaffected young men; drop outs from school or University, involved in drugs, drink & low level crime-lost in their own Muslim community & prey to the “teacher” who gives them a sense of purpose with an aggresive, revenge seeking version of their family faith-and the deadly tools to take that revenge for their own desperate feelings of inadequacy. .

  11. @David Welch

    I agree with your assessment re our constituency of West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine. Lib Dems completely absent so far and Tories majoring on one imo slightly irrelevant issue ( if May is going to block a second indyref anyway what’s the need to vote Tory?).

    SNP are finding that their membership base has become much more active so they have more people to canvass, deliver info and GOTV than hitherto. Whether that makes a difference or not and whether the Tories are finding the same time will tell.

  12. R HUCKLE
    I agree that cutting off the supply of funds and arms to ISIS would be difficult to achieve at the level where it would be effective.
    In practice I can well imagine Corbyn saying no to armed intervention in the face of advice, but he would put it to the UN SC – and, he rather than any other leader would be on the plane to discuss it with Moscow and Teheran, to seek agreement on other measures to end the threat.

  13. Just heard David Davis on R4 any questions trying to deny that there is any link between our foreign policy and bombers turning up here. Dimbleby quoted him a secret service report saying that our actions were increasing the risk at home and he still tried to deny it. The audience booed. I guess this is old news because this is the repeat, but he made me plain angry and the audience too. Its obvious foreign policy will have effects like this if it is mishandled. And it frequently is mishandled.

    Not sure the labour party is terribly keen on this argument either, but Corbyn has been putting it cautiously, and it sounds like a winner. His outsider position gives him the ability to make such an argument. But probably trying to keep some colleagues on board who disagree.

  14. Just something anecdotal if anyone’s interested:
    Had a Con candidate on my doorstep this morning for the first time EVER in many years of living in a constituency long held by Lab. I would have loved to have had some debate with him but as I explained to him, I was cooking for my partner who is a nurse and was back from night shift. He then didn’t look to keen to hang round ,a lot of hospital staff live in my area so perhaps he’d had some earfuls on his rounds already.

    It was interesting to see them though as the seat was contested in February in one of the by elections, Lab maj reduced but Con came 3rd after UKIP, perhaps an “all hands the pump” message from Tory HQ?

    Also, mildly interestingly,he mentioned TM in his introduction not the Con party and his flyer had nothing about manifesto/policy.

  15. @Danny

    Sooner or later you run in to Munich 1938

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