YouGov Welsh poll

The latest YouGov Welsh poll for ITV Wales and Cardiff University has topline figures of CON 34%(-7), LAB 44%(+9), LDEM 6%(-1), Plaid 9%(-2), UKIP 5%(+1). Changes are from a fortnight ago. Full tabs are here.

The polls in Wales in the election campaign have been a roller coaster, perhaps exaggerated a little by timing – the first was at the very start of the campaign when there was that burst of Tory enthusiasm that produced twenty-plus point leads in Britain and a ten point Tory lead in Wales. This most recent one was conducted straight after the Conservative manifesto launch, when they were reeling from the badly received policy on social care, and has Labour back to a solid lead. Labour now have a ten point lead, essentially the same as they got at the 2015 general election in Wales.


1,069 Responses to “YouGov Welsh poll”

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  1. This is the longest Welsh Fred in history so it is, so it is.

  2. Paul Croft,

    “This is the longest Welsh Fred in history so it is, so it is.”

    That’s a Rarebit of information!

    Peter.

  3. Tread Caerphilly guys, this election isn’t over yet

  4. Is there a name for someone suffering a lack of fresh poll data? Polloindegintphobia?

  5. Will,

    Are you carnarvon a laugh?

    Peter

  6. @ Carfew

    Well Blair’s been taking an interest it seems…’

    ‘He’s a bit authoritarian, but if Osborne joined in maybe he’ll keep him in line…’

    :)

  7. Paul Croft,

    Who is Welsh Fred anyway?

    Peter.

  8. This is getting ridiculous now. Can’t Anthony Wells just make up a poll or something?

  9. Well, as we are still on the Welsh thread..

    https://twitter.com/harrydcarr/status/867345079488348160

    People questioning the gender gap on this latest Welsh poll.

  10. GEOFF
    This is getting ridiculous now. Can’t Anthony Wells just make up a poll or something?
    ——————————-
    Like they did last time?

  11. “Is there a name for someone suffering a lack of fresh poll data?”

    ——-

    Polldrawal symptoms…

  12. ““Is there a name for someone suffering a lack of fresh poll data?”

    Polldarkness..

    Or is that just what they call it in Cornwall?

    Peter.

  13. Well if the only thing that people can remember about the Tories is ‘dementia tax’ and Brexit is barely mentioned, that’s quite something.

    For people to remember so many LAB policies unprompted is also quite surprising, given how little attention it is traditionally thought people pay to manifesto launches.

    On those numbers, a majority of people expressing a VI in favour of voting CON think they have bad policies? (if you assume Tory VI at that time was at least 38%).

    Unless Tory VI during that period was below 38%? We may never know.

  14. Regarding Anthony’s article, which was of course very interesting…

    A key question of course is… “Why?” Why are Corbyn’s policies a bit more memorable, and in a positive way. The policies themselves may be a bit more attractive, but it may also be they’re carefully couched in ways that are hard to attack, or don’t frighten as many horses. Maybe it’s partly because the One Nation Conserfatives now in charge have more in common with Corbyn so don’t want to attack and instead are ok with letting him pull things away from the liberal. Maybe some of the media now realise you can’t sustain the liberalism past a certain point or else you’ll get what happened in the U.S….

    Or maybe… Summat else… Many things I haven’t thought of…

  15. Geoff

    “This is getting ridiculous now. Can’t Anthony Wells just make up a poll or something?”

    Apparently there is one made in hell, but they can’t release it.

  16. “Is there a name for someone suffering a lack of fresh poll data?”

    If they’re really, genuinely suffering then I think they’re known in professional medical circles as a “weirdo”.

  17. Must say… It’s interesting finding out what peeps remember. Wonder how many will have heard about and retain the 7p-per-meal school breakfast thing. And will they remember Abbott’s unfortunate maths incident…

  18. Not sure if this point has already made, but when the polls restart, it might not prove anyone right or wrong about the polling impact of the recent atrocity after all.

    If Con rise, is it because of the atrocity or because their recent social care mis-hap is fading into memory?
    If Lab rise, is it because of the atrocity or because the social care u-turn gave them a further boost which is now being captured for the first time?

  19. What, no more Welsh puns!

    Come on folks; I bet there’s Menai more out there!

    Peter.

  20. Fascinating stuff Anthony – 54% stating Tories policies are not well thought through – must have had similar messages from internal polling to trigger u-turn on social care

  21. So now we have solid polling evidence showing the Tory manifesto went down like a lead balloon. But not just that – Labour’s was well received, so a ‘double whammy’ if you will.

    I have been pondering on when in the past something comparable may have happened, in relation to party policy, that was so widely disliked and achieved ‘penetration’ into the minds of ordinary folk. And I arrive at… the 2012 ombishambles budget

    That caused a 5% swing to Labour. It remains to be seen what, if any impact, the social care debacle has had on VI. Good lord we need a VI poll.

  22. Leaking the manifesto was a brilliant move, whether it was intended or not. It caught the media’s attention

  23. “People questioning the gender gap on this latest Welsh poll.”

    Interesting but presumably the gender figures, being crossbreaks, have significantly larger margins of error than the poll as a whole. But there may genuinely be a large gender gap. Interesting thing is, historically the gender gap used to be the other way round (women less likely to vote Labour) – and fitting in with that (perhaps) I recently saw something suggesting that the gender gap is still in that direction among those above a certain age.

  24. peter

    “Who is Welsh Fred anyway?”

    That is a secret – but I can tell you he’s a luvly, luvly man so he is, so he is.

  25. I think the representatives of the party I support got everything spot on post-bombing, whereas the other lot had feet of clay.

    There, I bet you’re glad I told you that, I’m sure you’re all much better informed.

  26. The trouble with polls is that, even at their most popular in the UK, most parties have a considerable, inbuilt and disapproving majority about anything they say or do.

    And yet we still express surprise if we hear that around 60% or so are against something in particular; it’s actually just to be expected.

  27. Yougov

    Con – not less than 45%

    Lab – not less than 30%

    As you can tell I’m not a betting man, but I will probably still be wrong

  28. Thanks AW – very interesting – just one question. You say the polling was conducted before the polling, but the fieldwork date is shown as 22-23 May. The recent event was on night of the 22nd. So actually it seems some of the fieldwork may have been post-atrocity, not that this is likely to have a made to a difference to the results (in my view)?

  29. Is just you gov expected?

  30. I think it also remains to be seen what happens to Labour’s lead now that UKIP have pretty much parked their tanks on the lawns of Labour’s policies.. with the bank hols, extra services, tuition fees etc.

    They don’t seem to be policies aimed at taking the already right wing Tory vote.. but woo-ing the lefties over to their way of thinking..

    So, that in mind, I’d love to see what the polls say about it in a few days, given how popular the Labour policies are..

    And whether this actually impacts Con VI too…

  31. On the manifestos poll – good to see that we have overthrown the rule that manifestos cannot move polls.

    However, when reading it what stuck me was how even I had already forgotten half the policies.

    Events have moved on….

    Top comment on the Daily mail is agreeing with Donald Trump

    “He is absolutely right. Something needs to be done.”

    These are the voters that are the reason the Tories are in the lead…do they still think the Tories are the party to do something? They don’t seem convinced so far. Are they going to drift back to UKIP?

    PS – as someone who started out this election thinking of voting Lib Dem, at this time UKIP is talking the most sense, so they are not alone.

  32. PAUL CROFT

    It is the movement in the polls which we are expressing an interest in. Was that movement only to be expected? Or did the Tories cause a self-inflicted wound with their manifesto launch? Seems to be the latter.

  33. BBC question time

    My heart sank when i heard it was in Manchester tonight and it is almost certainly going to enrage the nation.
    The audience will be specially selected, there will be the moderate muslims, the liberal do-gooders etc the emergency services all coming together in a reconciliation fest where every comment supporting letting love prevail will be clapped to the rafters, And yet our children are slaughtered.No one asks the hard questions such as why we have let any body who has fought in syria back into the UK
    We also exclude in debate the section of the population from which these “losers” come. We only hear their voices through a distant explosion. Those two lads spoken to in Manchester by a 5 live presenter who said the government had done the manchester bombing will not be there for fear no doubt of enraging the population. But unless their views are exposed to scrutiny,to debate how can they be challenged. The BBC think that question time sends out a message but the people we need to reach are watching Foreign Channels in a foreign language reporting on events from a different perspective. To them, i suspect, there is no difference between Farage and farron. They are both crusaders.

  34. Whilst I appreciate the reasons for it and am suitably appalled by them, I have to say this is very amusing for several reasons:

    1 Over 1,000 comments on a Wales only thread.

    2 Someone (it could have been me as I had thought it) asking AW to make something up

    3 Welsh puns (most of which were pretty good)

    4 Guessing at what a poll might say later

    All this from a very erudite and sober group who are normally arguing over the size of a cross break sample and what statistical impact it might have on MoE or similar.

    However, my guess for YG poll is

    Con 49%
    Lab 33%
    LD 8%
    G 3%

    The rest the balance

  35. Whilst I appreciate the reasons for it and am suitably appalled by them, I have to say this is very amusing for several reasons:

    1 Over 1,000 comments on a Wales only thread.

    2 Someone (it could have been me as I had thought it) asking AW to make something up

    3 Welsh puns (most of which were pretty good)

    4 Guessing at what a poll might say later

    All this from a very erudite and sober group who are normally arguing over the size of a cross break sample and what statistical impact it might have on MoE or similar.

    However, my guess for YG poll is

    Con 49%
    Lab 33%
    LD 8%
    G 3%

    The rest the balance

  36. @Peter
    No, the previous puns Gwent down really badly.

  37. Sorry if this has been posted before (so many comments) but it’s really interesting…
    https://www.ft.com/content/8eb99046-3fb3-11e7-9d56-25f963e998b2

  38. @Peter
    But if you like puns I can see why your opinion might Dyfed!(sorry I’ll stop now)

  39. Re QT

    It is a ludicrous decision to move it to Salford.

    It is an appalling insult to Belfast and Northern Ireland, it says they don’t matter. It would also have been more enlightening to have heard the NI view given their history. It will be an hour of virtue signalling.

  40. We’re guessing the results for the new YouGov poll now?

  41. Do you gov still publish for s*n? Rather criptic tweet

    https://mobile.twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/867787818134904833

  42. RP – yes, a little bit would have. Fieldwork ended at about 9.30am on Tuesday.

  43. Thanks.

  44. Smithy – no, only the Times.

  45. What “Truce” is he referring to in that tweet?

  46. CARFREW
    ” will they remember Abbott’s unfortunate maths incident…”

    My understanding is that the surge in Labour VI is largely due to the commitment to recruiting police at a cost of thirty quid a year.

  47. Harry Cole has obviously seen the poll results.

    I don’t want to get over-excited at this stage. But it’s making me re-evaluate my guess as my ‘steady as she goes’ was certainly not a ‘yikes’ moment.

    New YG guess:

    CON 39
    LAB 35
    UKIP 10
    LD 7

  48. Aaron

    Presumably the not campaigning and being respectful bit?

  49. Could be related to UKIP launch but would be surprised that’s made front page – imagine some Corbyn mud slinging

  50. I was considering averaging the guesses to obtain a ‘poll of guesses’. But on the other hand, let’s just wait for a real poll.

    More seriously, on the manifestos, I wonder if the Labour leak helped to lodge the policies in people’s minds. I suspect it got far more exposure than it would have otherwise. Despite the shouts of ‘incompetance’ at the time, I did start to think this might have been a deliberate leak thought out by a spin-doctor. Of course it only works if the policies highlighted turn out to be popular, but they seem to managed to get that right too. Maybe not so incompetant after all!

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