YouGov Welsh poll

The latest YouGov Welsh poll for ITV Wales and Cardiff University has topline figures of CON 34%(-7), LAB 44%(+9), LDEM 6%(-1), Plaid 9%(-2), UKIP 5%(+1). Changes are from a fortnight ago. Full tabs are here.

The polls in Wales in the election campaign have been a roller coaster, perhaps exaggerated a little by timing – the first was at the very start of the campaign when there was that burst of Tory enthusiasm that produced twenty-plus point leads in Britain and a ten point Tory lead in Wales. This most recent one was conducted straight after the Conservative manifesto launch, when they were reeling from the badly received policy on social care, and has Labour back to a solid lead. Labour now have a ten point lead, essentially the same as they got at the 2015 general election in Wales.


1,069 Responses to “YouGov Welsh poll”

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  1. Con 48
    Lab 32
    Lib 9
    UKIP 4

  2. @Redrich
    @MarkW

    Glad to have you on board!! You will be a valuable addition to the party, whose chief policy will be that political parties are a VBT (very bad thing)….

  3. DRBBMILES
    People over seventy are certainly ‘less educated’ by modern, concocted measures and targets which are legitimized by pretty worthless pieces of paper, but do you think that people over seventy have worse grammar, spell more poorly, are less numerate, understand logarithms less or know less history than younger people? Do younger generations have more or less Latin than the over seventies? Can as many play the piano or read sheet music? I think that if you ask most older people whether they think the standard of education has risen or fallen during their lifetimes you might get an ear full.

  4. REDRICH
    back to the principles of Athenian democracy”
    Good one. That included service trades being conducted by slaves, mainly from overseas, with no political or citizenship rights – they did not mind them coming over ‘ere and takin’ our jobs, but drew the line at paying them, allowing them to vote or take public office.
    Athenian citizens who did not in consequence have jobs were encouraged to become philosophers, architects, athletes and dramatists, and some of the women became poets thus founding the Western political philosophy of freedom and equality, civilisation and culture which we all enjoy today, with the exception of the Greeks, of course.

  5. RONALD

    Of course you can ‘guess’ what a poll will say – you make a prediction of direction on the basis of political events since the last poll.

    (Or you check how widely Anthony’s staff are smiling and try to judge on that basis!)

  6. Carfrew

    I’m tempted to suggest that the vagaries of FPTP are such that if you insist on electing your politicians the system we’ve got is as close to random (relative to the preferences of the electorate) as you’re going to get!

  7. @RONALD OLDEN

    My son is at uni in Sheffield Hallam and if what he reports about the student mood is true, Nick Clegg is going to get slaughtered by the Labour Party.

    As for my prediction of the latest poll I reckon:
    Con 46
    Lab 33
    LD 8
    UKIP 4

  8. A lot of peeps have put their predictions for the GE in previous threads. Well now I’m coming off the fence with my own prediction and I must warn you, I have good form when it comes to predictions as some of you will know!! % followed by = Seats

    Tories..44% = 393

    Labour..31% = 180

    L/Dems..9% = 9

    UKIP…6% = 0

    Greens..3% = 1

    Others…7% = 67 (SNP, NI, PC & Speaker)

    Scotland (Seats)

    SNP..43% = 45

    Tory..28% = 9

    Labour..22% = 2

    Lib/Dems..6% = 3

    Others 1%..Greens only standng in 3 seats.

  9. Hypothetical question [very]

    If Labour win on June 8th [stop larfing please] will Diane Abbott really, REALLY become Home Sec?

    And how will Corbyn square the circle of offering jobs to those who stuck with him,who have virtually no experience, as against those who didn’t who have actually served in cabinet?

    [And how will we ever know??]

  10. @Sorbus

    No random system could possibly come up with Miliband, Clegg, Cameron et al ALL AT THE SAME TIME!! Not in the lifetime of the universe anyway…

    (Admittedly, the lack of randomness of FPTP is also consequently unlikely to see a Carfrew in power, which admittedly is possibly one thing in its favour, but you can’t have everything…)

  11. Thanks

  12. I think Nick Clegg should be very worried. Last time the tories in that seat of which there were plenty .. it’s quite rural, switched to help him out and to stop labour. They won’t do that now. I think Tim Farron might also have a problem in his seat . He might be this elections Ed Balls.

  13. Admittedly

  14. DAVID COLBY

    When I said people over 70 were less educated, I meant in terms of formal educational qualifications only as per the educational categories used in polling. Nothing more!

  15. Regarding Abbott as Home Sec…

    They could do what they do in wartime. You have a notional head, but appoint the best for the job behind the scenes to really head things up.

    (You could argue this is what happens with Boris at times…)

  16. Allan Christie

    IMHO, I think you’re spot on there.

    Phil

    Agree, very familiar with Westmorland and Lonsdale (indeed will be there this time tomorrow) and the Cons are confident. As Lab must be in Hallam.

    As to the rest of you predicting tonight’s poll, it will be Yougov wont it? Suspect Con lead much tighter, +6 or +7, they tend to be slightly tighter than the rest.

  17. As examples…

    When the Royal Mint was in crisis, they didn’t put someone like Abbot or Boris in charge, they put Isaac Newton in charge to fix it. In the war, they put a very young Harold Wilson in charge of the Depaetment of Statistics, because he was a genius. Youngest don at Oxford for many a year…

  18. @Paul Croft

    “If Labour win on June 8th [stop larfing please] will Diane Abbott really, REALLY become Home Sec?”

    Yes.

    “And how will Corbyn square the circle of offering jobs to those who stuck with him,who have virtually no experience, as against those who didn’t who have actually served in cabinet?”

    I imagine he will, correctly, conclude: a) that the ‘generation of talent’ is vastly overrated; b) if he can win an election without them, he can likely govern without them.

  19. PHIL

    “I think Nick Clegg should be very worried”
    _____________

    He’s always got a worried look about him. I don’t think Clegg has quite recovred from the bashings the mighty Bercow used to give him during Prime Ministers Questions when he was standing in for Cameron. “Look up man” “speak up” Ouch!!

  20. O.K this is my punt for tonight , cons 45 , lab 33 , lib 8 , ukip 5.

  21. Mark w, Diane Abbot.

    I think this might be of interest, or not.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2017/01/having-last-laugh

  22. anarchists unite

    A very good theoretical answer.

    carfrew

    “As examples…
    When the Royal Mint was in crisis, they didn’t put someone like Abbot or Boris in charge, they put Isaac Newton in charge to fix it.”

    Righto: Isaac for Home Sec it is then.

  23. Er, sorry about extra Mark w above.

  24. I have some local knowledge of Sheffield Hallam and I suggest that those arguing that Clegg is about to lose his seat take a look at the credentials of the Labour candidate – he’s much, much weaker than the 2015 candidate.

    Labour are not putting nearly as much effort into winning Sheffield Hallam as they did in 2015 (I suspect a fair bit of that effort was organised by the candidate himself). They may also leak some votes due to anger at the local council’s tree-chopping.

    My guess would be that Farron’s probably in greater danger (it is only a guess, I’ve no knowledge of his constituency) if only because there’s a particular savour to unseating a party’s leading figure(s).

  25. I should probably add that Hanretty’s model suggests that Sheffield Hallam voted Remain.

  26. Farron has an 18% majority. It seems improbably that he’d lose, though it would certainly make replacing him with a more traditional Liberal easier.

  27. SORBUS

    Norman Lamb’s son (who I work with) seems pretty sure he’ll lose his seat.

    General LibDem dissent against Farron, I think.

  28. *pretty sure Lamb senior’ll lose his seat.

    [For clarity.]

  29. I think Nick Clegg is in danger from the Tories, not Labour

    Go back to pre tuition fees and the Tories were in second place.

    And then look at Lord Ashcroft’s 2017 prediction

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/

    (press 2017 on the right hand side)

    PM Preference 46% May, 33% JC, 20% TF

    Brexit Acceptance 36% enthusiast, 26% accept result, 38% want to reverse.

    “too close to call”

    I think that looks like a clear Tory gain.

  30. Farron won by the narrowest of margins in 2005, it’s historically a Con heartland. Believe me, the electorate hasn’t changed that much in that time, just got even greyer

  31. @ Allan Christie – noted.

    Here’s a list of everyone whose prediction I’ve recorded so far. If you’re missing from the list, let me know.

    (1) PETE B (19/4)
    (2) EXILED VOTER (20/4)
    (3) LEW BLEW (20/4)
    (4) REDRICH (20/4)
    (5) SSSIMON (20/4)
    (6) ANDREW MYERS (20/4)
    (7) ALISTER1948 (20/4)
    (8) CHRISLANE1945 (20/4)
    (9) TANCRED (20/4)
    (10) RAF (20/4)
    (11) POPEYE (20/4)
    (12) RICHARD (21/04)
    (13) KEN (21/4)
    (14) GRAY (21/4)
    (15) NEILJ (21/4)
    (16) GUYMONDE (21/4)
    (17) MILLIE (21/4)
    (18) JAMIE (21/4)
    (19) ADVISABLYANON (21/4)
    (20) PATRICKBRIAN (21/4)
    (21) BT SAYS… (21/4)
    (22) JONESINBANGOR (21/4)
    (23) WB (21/4)
    (24) STEVE COOPER (21/4)
    (25) MARCO FLYNN (21/4)
    (26) RED AND WHITE STRIPE (21/4)
    (27) WOODY (21/4)
    (28) CATMANJEFF (24/4)
    (29) EDGE OF REASON (24/4)
    (30) JIM JAM (24/4)
    (31) REGINALD (24/4)
    (32) TREVOR WARNE (6/5)
    (33) NORTHERNRURALMODEOMAN (7/5)
    (34) THE OTHER HOWARD (9/5)
    (35) BARDIN1 (9/5)
    (36) MARCO FLYNN (#2 – 17/5)
    (37) RP (17/5)
    (38) ANDY WILLIAMS (17/5)
    (39) PORROHMAN (17/5)
    (40) BALDBLOKE (17/5)
    (41) COUPER2802 (17/5)
    (42) PETE B (#2 – 17/05)
    (43) RICH (17/5)
    (44) MORFSKY (17/5)
    (45) CROY (17/5)
    (46) JAMIE (#2 – 17/5)
    (47) JAMES MACKAY (17/5)
    (48) CHRISLANE1945 (#2 – 17/5)
    (49) HARRYC (17/5)
    (50) DAVID WELCH (17/5)
    (51) RICHARD (#2 – 17/5)
    (52) CHARLES STUART (17/5)
    (53) DON’T-TELL-EM-PIKE (17/5)
    (54) SSSIMON (#2 – 17/5)
    (55) LURGEE (18/5)
    (56) JULIUS (18/5)
    (57) WB (#2 – 18/5)
    (58) GRAHAMBC (18/5)
    (59) STEVEN WHEELER (18/5)
    (60) TREVOR WARNE (#2 – 18/5)
    (61) DAVEW (18/5)
    (62) BANTAMS (18/5)
    (63) EXILEINYORKS (18/5)
    (64) LITTLE RED ROCK (19/5)
    (65) SHEVII (19/5)
    (66) ANDREW MYERS (20/5)
    (67) MARCO FLYNN (#3 – 21/5)
    (68) MARK (21/5)
    (69) ALLAN CHRISTIE (25/5)

  32. And Tim Farron is also a gonner, even more so

    Brexit enthusiast = 46%
    PM preference =57% May

    The Lib Dems are all gone after this election.

    18% doesn’t win first past the post elections.

  33. Re Abbott

    If Labour did close the gap say to 5% then I’d expect all the anti-Corbyn MPs to realise they can’t easily blame the defeat on him and will suddenly appear at events. In the unlikely event of him winning, he needs experience in a Cabinet and Abbott will be ideal in Sports.

  34. Ssimon

    Out of interest and not trying to be contentious, what is a more traditional liberal? Who would take over, assuming say every other libdem kept their seat?

  35. Richard

    That might make more sense (until 2015 Lab had always come a distant 3rd in the seat) but the election material I’ve seen has been anti-Labour and anti-Brexit. I suppose it’s possible that the LDs are tailoring materials on a micro-level – I don’t have that kind of insider knowledge.

  36. While everyone is making predictions about tonight’s poll, I would like to comment on how I think terrorist attacks may affect the pools. When there was the train bomb in Spain, the then government (of Spain) cocked up royally, accusing ETA. This almost certainly cost them the election. When the main candidates are not in government and act with propriety, a terrorist attack has little effect on polling, cf. France. However, I think that there was a very slight swing to the establishment candidate, Macron.

    I think that the government has acted in a proportionate and wise manner towards the attack in Manchester and my guess is that they could benefit a bit. However, in Manchester itself, Labour may get some benefit because the Metro Mayor, Andy Burnham, was very statesmanlike. Perhaps the thing that can be said is that just about every politician acted well. That said, I can’t help thinking that there will be a small swing towards the government in tonight’s poll. The problem will be working out whether this is a result of the atrocity or because the last poll was a bit of an outlier.

    My guess: Conservatives 47%, Labour 33.5%, Lib Dems 8.5%, UKIP 4%, Greens 2%, 5% Nats and others. If the poll figures are rounded to the nearest whole percent, my gut says Labour 33%, Lib Dems 9%.

  37. @ Will

    Perhaps I’m biased but having grown up in the South West, it was always my impression that someone like Paddy Ashdown (small ‘c’ conservative, ex-military, socially liberal) went down better there in their heartlands.

    I must admit to not knowing enough about their remaining MPs to know who would be a more popular choice though!

  38. ^
    I would have a different view on Burnham. I found him very PC, and on the two times I saw/heard him on TV and radio he raced to get out the Jo Cox comparison which I didn’t really think was appropriate.

  39. Felt Burnham was bang on the money and got tone spot on IMO

  40. “Out of interest and not trying to be contentious, what is a more traditional liberal? Who would take over, assuming say every other libdem kept their seat?”

    ———–

    Well Blair’s been taking an interest it seems…

  41. Anyone thinking LibDems will get under 10 seats can still get decent odds 12-5:
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.131100394

    Note they have 1 seat in Scotland that they will likely hold and 2 more Scottish seats where they are ‘odds-on’. S.W.London they might keep Richmond Park and are expected to retake Twickenham with a close race for both Kingston and Bermondsey. I don’t know about their seat in Wales – not a huge majority but Plaid Cymru in 2nd place and don’t seem to be polling very well either.

    My guess is they hold 5 seats, gain a few and end up almost exactly where they were in 2015 (seats and %)

  42. He’s a bit authoritarian, but if Osborne joined in maybe he’ll keep him in line…

  43. Tonight’s YouGov prediction

    Con 43%
    Lab 36%
    Lib 8%
    UKIP 5%

    So a further closing of the gap as the Tory problems on Monday take full effect. However I believe the weekend YouGov will be favourable to Con in the aftermath of Manchester where I expect their lead to be about 10%

  44. what time is yougov expected?

  45. Here you go you lot, some nice new polling (well, newly published. It’s from before the bombing. And it’s not voting intention.)

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/25/manifesto-destinies/

  46. the question is, will it be an omfg, a blimey or a meh?

  47. There has been a lot of comment about the election resuming especially from posters on this site. Even Smithy on PB was getting very very agitated about it although why he in particular should want a campaign in which the Liberals may be annihilated to recommence defeats me.
    However, the election has never stopped. It has justt changed format.It is as if an exam based test had had a practical element introduced at the last minute. Some want the traditional election with set piece speeches, media interventions exposure of costings etc how a candidate puts up with pressure or avoids an answer. They feel cheated that the old ways have not been followed. I doubt whether the public feel like that. In reality the object of the election is to choose a prime minister who we ,as a nation, have confidence in dealing with both in the knowns but more importantly in the unknowns.The country is in the position to see one of the candidates handle a crisis and to be able to ask themselves whether they would feel the same amount of confidence if other candidates were in charge. Thus, in an election about the capability of the candidates a practical issue has arisen in distressing circumstances where debating skills and student politics count for nought but deeper skills are needed.
    So far from weakening the election process i would argue that the ability of the electorate has been enhanced by what they have seen. They might think TM has been good or bad but they have a better basis for that than merely by how a crowd is whipped up or how one does in a Brillo interview.

  48. That’s exceptionally good news for Labour, and the opposite for Conservative. I’d put that as a half blimey, because the results aren’t so surprising.

    So, manifesto usually not read so no effect on polling, but generall perception of manifesto good for Labour, bad for Con so therefore could impact on polls?

  49. So 31% think Labour’s policies are well thought-through, compared to just 19% who think Tory policies are.

  50. Labour revival
    For those unduly excited by the so called Labour spring there is a sobering analysis by Kieran Pedley plus experts on a podcast on the PB site.

    All i can say is for those dusting down their red flags from the attic cyanide tablets are available

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