YouGov Welsh poll

The latest YouGov Welsh poll for ITV Wales and Cardiff University has topline figures of CON 34%(-7), LAB 44%(+9), LDEM 6%(-1), Plaid 9%(-2), UKIP 5%(+1). Changes are from a fortnight ago. Full tabs are here.

The polls in Wales in the election campaign have been a roller coaster, perhaps exaggerated a little by timing – the first was at the very start of the campaign when there was that burst of Tory enthusiasm that produced twenty-plus point leads in Britain and a ten point Tory lead in Wales. This most recent one was conducted straight after the Conservative manifesto launch, when they were reeling from the badly received policy on social care, and has Labour back to a solid lead. Labour now have a ten point lead, essentially the same as they got at the 2015 general election in Wales.


1,069 Responses to “YouGov Welsh poll”

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  1. First comment?

  2. Thank you Anthony.
    In my GE 2015 Stats on Wales:
    I have Lab on 36.9%; Tories on 27.2%

  3. :)

  4. When everything settles down, and the Tories unleash their negative “Corbyn and the IRA” blitz I’m guessing Wales will settle down to somewhere between the two polls.

    The fact that everyone is getting excited about Labour “narrowing” the lead to “just” 10 points, when at this point Ed M was level, shows just how bad it is. How can anyone be 10 points behind May?

    I’m wondering how the stricter turnout models will work as we get closer to the big day. I’m guessing the Tory lead will settle around 14/15 points.

  5. “after the Conservative manifesto launch, when they were reeling from the badly received policy on social care,”

    I wonder how many in Wales are aware that the Tory social care policy is for England only? (Of course, it may have negative Barnett consequentials).

  6. @ Chris Lane you are right, this poll is much better for Labour than their 2015 result here (and actually a lot better for the Tories too); if this was maintained Labour would likely win a couple of seats from the Conservatives but it may be a Rhodri bounce that slips back again in coming days. However it does look like themovement towards Labour here is fairly real

  7. Got to

  8. try and

  9. help the Welsh.

  10. There we go. Managed to get the thread up to 8 posts – now 9!

    Some readers may recall my ‘on this day on UKPR in 2010’ series I ran during the 2015 election campaign, which turned up a Welsh poll thread from 2010 that (to my knowledge) retains the UKPR record of being the shortest ever thread.

    Buried as it was in a welter on new polling threads, it managed just 7 posts, which I thought was a bit harsh, considering Welsh threads are a rare event.

  11. The odds checker says 9-1 on a hung Parliament. Probably be 8-1 tomorrow, but I think that is worth having.

    After watching the BBC News, I can’t help thinking that Theresa May has tarnished her brand. My conspiracy theorist dad thinks it was deliberate – but I cannot see any politician going on a political suicide mission for which they won’t even get the equivalent of a star on the wall at Langley.

    It is even leading to questions about whether the Tory sums add up, which given the Labour manifesto is ironic.

    But having spent this election commenting at how the inertia of public opinion was an overwhelming asset for the Conservatives – I must add that inertia also means that once something starts moving, it is hard to stop.

  12. “The fact that everyone is getting excited about Labour “narrowing” the lead to “just” 10 points, when at this point Ed M was level, shows just how bad it is. How can anyone be 10 points behind May?”

    It’s true that the excitement about what is still a healthy Conservative lead is due to the initial expectations caused by the huge lead the Conservatives started off with.

    But your “when at this point Ed M was level” aside needs to come with a statistical health warning. The 2015 polls had different methodology, more favourable to Labour, so can’t be compared with the current ones.

  13. When was the last time polls showed a movement this large in such a short period of time?

    Is this what Clegg mania looked like?

  14. On these figures, Labour might even gain the odd seat from Conservatives (Gower) and Plaid (Arfon or Carmarthen East & Dinefwr).

  15. @ Alec

    How public spirited. I’d like to help out – now we are 10.

  16. @joseph1832

    I agree re the 10pm news, it was a train wreck. If campaigns do move polls, that was a poll moving event.

  17. @Oldnat: “I wonder how many in Wales are aware that the Tory social care policy is for England only? (Of course, it may have negative Barnett consequentials).”

    My hypothesis is that Labour is winning back Old Labour voters. Many of whom would shrug their shoulders at the thresholds and say that it is all silly money from their perspective.

    Another problem for TM is surely that things will look very different in Scotland if there is a possibility that voting SNP might actually lead to a Conservative defeat. I suppose there are unionist inclined voters who would be more worried about the SNP winning 56 seats than whether the Tories have a majority of 100 or 120. But if it looks like the Tories might lose, then would that be a different matter?

  18. Adrian there can be a danger in just running a negative campaign.A bit of optimism can go a long way.If you keep playing the man and not the ball it might not work out like you suggest.

  19. One of the most revealing points of the interview was when May when asked how she would pay for NHS and said several times “my economic credibility is not in question”. It was something she has been told in the Crosby briefings – she wasn’t meant to say it out loud.

  20. I don’t think it matters that social care is devolved in Wales, even if folk realise that. It’s all about values, old fears, stereotypes etc. It’s like my boyfriend thinks his taxes are going to go up if Corbyn wins, but he earns no where near enough to be a target. he hears taxes and labour and gets furious that Corbyn is after his money

  21. Richard the Itv news was terrible .I never thought campaigns or manifestos had any influence on the final result maybe I was wrong.

  22. It will be very interesting to see the leadership ratings in the polls doing their fieldwork over the next couple of days.

    Will we see a big closing of the gap between hers and JCs?

  23. @Richard
    Yes, that is what Cleggmania looked like, although the dramatic movement was for a percieved positive reason rather than a negative aversion to something. Cleggmanis largely dissipated by polling day because much of the temporary growth in Clegg support was amongst tge very cohort who read tge Daily Mail/Daily Express both of which went on a daily tarnishing and rubbishing of his appeal with bizarre negative spin on things like him having a foreign wife – heaven forbid LOL! Anyway, I don’t think the current volatility similar in nature other than that the papers have been negatively spinning on Corbyn for months, and only now with the exposure on TV people are instead making up their minds and reassessing their hitherto newspaper inspired negative view of him. Whether it will be enough to put him in teal contention we shall have to wait and see.

  24. Before bed: will the May performances so far strengthen her hand when negotiating with Paris, Berlin and Brussels?
    I am not sure

  25. @Richard:

    It was like watching England in a penalty shoot out. You want to say, “All credit for stepping up and taking responsibility”, but you can’t help thinking, “What on earth was that?”

    Having got rid of the debates, there is no chance for May to do a Pearce-1996 act of redemption.

    My concern – to betray my biases – is that it really does strike at the core level of impression which guides the casual voter, i.e. the vast majority. And it came at a point when there was already a narrowing. I think that may explain why there seems to be an exception in the rule that manifestos change little. Someone whose appeal was largely based on impression has given a very bad one.

  26. Apologies AW. For tge = the For teal = real
    I must find out how to enlarge my mobilephone’s keyboard!

  27. @Richard

    “When was the last time polls showed a movement this large in such a short period of time?
    Is this what Clegg mania looked like”

    Not even close. There were polls that had Clegg’s LD’s above 30%! When you consider where they finished that was some spike.

  28. Joe – so its featuring in a Pizza add for Mrs May with a brown paper bag on her head in a couple of years time then?

    I think Brillo has a notion that she does not intend to do the full 5 years?

  29. well this poll result wasn’t expected

  30. joseph1832 & cambridgerachel

    I think you are both probably right that the Tory social care policy in England being “badly received” wasn’t critical in moving Welsh VI.

    Indeed, Anthony himself, may not have meant to imply that.

    It’s “all about the narrative”!

    Polling has suggested that more people think the Tories “are prepared to take the tough decisions” – though whether they feel that is a positive or not never seems to be questioned.

    Perhaps the real issue is the perception of competence?

  31. Feisty discussion on the Sky Press Preview (Andrew Pierce and Kevin Maguire) regarding a Corbyn and IRA story, Grand Hotel bombing etc. I hesitate to say much about it either way in case it is seen as ‘partisan’ – suffice it to say it does appear that the gradual Corbyn drip feed is beginning to show. Wonder if anyone here saw it.

  32. this poll suggests that some libdem and plaid are going to labour

  33. JOSEPH1832 @Richard

    For us non-English, who is or was Pearce and what did he or she do in 1996?

  34. joseph1832

    “Someone whose appeal was largely based on impression has given a very bad one.”

    Precisely the point I was making a few freds back.

    Mrs May is someone people “think” they know simply because she has been around a long time and became PM with attendant publicity.

    But she didn’t fight a leadership campaign for that, so hasn’t had to open up a lot beyond soundbites [take your pick], and I doubt if anyone could really come up with a long list of her achievements as Home Secretary.

    In those circumstances her decisions [or those of her advisers] to seem aloof from the cut and thrust of a proper General Election debate, both with the opposition and the general public, were unlikely to survive six weeks of scrutiny.

    On the other hand, all anyone thought they knew about Jeremy Corbyn was that he was awful – and that’s quite a hard image to live down to in it’s own way as well.

    Which then leads to momentum and the unknown

    Anyway, this is is a Welsh thread, so it is, so it is – which is luvly, luvly, luvly.

  35. Jim-jam

    Andrew was trying to ask the same question I got moderated for asking earlier. Is her position as leader under threat?

  36. Out come the big guns…

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3623936/jeremy-corbyn-might-not-have-planted-a-bomb-but-he-made-it-easier-for-those-who-did-says-former-ira-man/

    Looks like the dirt is starting to appear in Corbyn. I was wondering when it would commence.

  37. @Cambridge Rachel

    If she’s 10 short of a majority and rwliant on the DUP / UUP to keep her in No 10,she won’t last long.

    Trouvle is, who else do they have?

  38. CR – His question came as a surprise to me but her rsponse wasn’t that convincing.

    If she wins decently I don’t think under threat but she could go in 2020 or her own volition.

  39. Sky News @ 11 none too favourable to May. It will be interesting to see what Murdoch’s print empire makes of it.

  40. David West

    Feisty discussion on the Sky Press Preview (Andrew Pierce and Kevin Maguire….

    If what Andrew said was true then I completely gobsmacked….

  41. Reality check

    i am afraid that the great British public neither saw nor will be swayed by the interview.
    Those posters who did watch it did so through the glasses they had on at the start.

  42. Expectations matter. People expect TM to be decisive, strong, a natural leader. People expect JC to be weak and indecisive, because that is what he was painted as prior to the election.

    Therefore, given an average performance from either JC or TM in the broadcast media, perceptions of JC will increase and perceptions of TM will decrease from their starting positions. That shift in opinion either disappoints or it exceeds expectations.

    The front pages tomorrow (including the Tory press) and the broadcast media today all focus on TM’s ‘chaos’ and ‘weakness’. This is counter to the key Tory ‘strong and stable’ brand message of the campaign.

    Now the really interesting thing will be – will it shift voting intention further and impact leadership ratings?

    Will there be any polls tonight?

  43. An interesting night at the Batley and Spen hustings.

    Prize howler goes to a candidate who answered a question on islamaphobia by the words “We’ve had a great hustings and we’ve not shot anyone yet!”

    This a day after all the candidates attended an event in memory of Jo Cox (shot dead in the constituency year ago).

    Potentially this seat could be a Tory gain.

    I think that one has sailed….

  44. Ian

    I don’t think Kevin Maguire questioned the factual content of what Andrew Pierce said – they just looked at it differently. Again, difficult to say much given the ‘partisan’ rules and the fact that the two journalists are on opposite sides of the political spectrum, but the Sun seem to be running a big story whatever.

  45. As I said earlier, I felt May passed the interview comfortably. No major blunder’s and non eventful… What she needed after the u-turn and she got her sound bites across.

    If Andrew Neil presses Corbyn on certain issues (namely IRA) we may well get a headline.

  46. Alec,

    “considering Welsh threads are a rare event.”

    Probably because there are to many leaks!!!!!

    Peter.

  47. S Thomas

    “I am afraid that the great British public neither saw nor will be swayed by the interview.
    Those posters who did watch it did so through the glasses they had on at the start.”

    Agreed.

    They won’t even be swayed by the stories in the papers (which they won’t read), but will be influenced by the headlines they see as they wander into the supermarket.

    More will be influenced by whatever impression they got from the radio/TV news bulletins – that they were half listening to.

  48. @S Thomas

    Probably true. But I think we can safely say that now Theresa May’s honeymoon period as leader is well and truly over.

    Strong and stable wasn’t just about Brexit. It was also about placing TM on a pedestal. Almost as if to say that she was on a superior plane to nonentities like Corbyn and Farron. Hence all the presidential stuff.

    Of course the Press will now rip JC to shreds over his alleged (unproven) links to the IRA. But whatever happens in the rest of TM’s political career, she must live it as a mere mortal and as a consequence be vulnerable to the same triumphs and diasters as everyone else.

  49. @DRMIBBLES

    I don’t think that either Theresa May or Jeremy Corbyn’s performances in the media or the coverage in the papers will make that big a difference in how people choose to vote, I think people regardless of what the press will say from now people already have formed thier opinion on both May and Corbyn and Corbyn’s negative press before the election has already done its damage and people won’t change their mind about him. May could go down but doubt it, but I suppose anything can happen.

  50. I take AW’s point about the poll timings perhaps magnifying things, especially on that initial 10pt lead, but given these changes are from the 6pt lead around the time of the Welsh local elections, does it seem credible there has been an 8% swing in just two weeks?

    This isn’t to argue I think this poll is “wrong” – maybe the earlier ones were skewed by lack of engagement or focus on local elections and this is a reality check.

    My question really… is it perhaps the case that given a five-party voting system spread over a lot of small seats (with often low turnouts), covering five or six different kinds of regional battles with different combinations of parties contesting… is Wales just *really* hard to poll at the moment?

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