YouGov Welsh poll

The latest YouGov Welsh poll for ITV Wales and Cardiff University has topline figures of CON 34%(-7), LAB 44%(+9), LDEM 6%(-1), Plaid 9%(-2), UKIP 5%(+1). Changes are from a fortnight ago. Full tabs are here.

The polls in Wales in the election campaign have been a roller coaster, perhaps exaggerated a little by timing – the first was at the very start of the campaign when there was that burst of Tory enthusiasm that produced twenty-plus point leads in Britain and a ten point Tory lead in Wales. This most recent one was conducted straight after the Conservative manifesto launch, when they were reeling from the badly received policy on social care, and has Labour back to a solid lead. Labour now have a ten point lead, essentially the same as they got at the 2015 general election in Wales.


1,069 Responses to “YouGov Welsh poll”

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  1. Dr Mibbles

    Harry Cole is a former Guido wakes writer. If he just said “Yikes” I would probably agree with your guess.

    I think the “Truce over” bit means they are going to publish something they think is unpleasant and groundbreaking, I assume the Sun’s front page is unveiled at 10PM?

  2. The choice between the labour and tory manifestos wa slike the choice between a sweetshop and a torture chamber.

    i am very concerned that so many chose the torture chamber. Frank Bough come back all is forgiven.

  3. If you read his next tweet that would imply it’s not poll related. Sounds like someone has explicitly tried to make political capital over Mondays events.

  4. I’m going to give it a guess.. Harry doesn’t seem to be some-one willing to celebrate any kind of Labour revival or good news.. and his cryptic tweet suggests a “have that” mentality over a “ouch, that’s a big blow to the Tories”..

    So, here’s my guess, given fieldwork is up to 9:30 the morning of the attack:

    Con – 49
    Lab – 29
    LD – 7
    UKIP 6
    GRN 3

  5. Right, his comment was not poll related. Shame.

  6. Steven,

    “But if you like puns I can see why your opinion might Dyfed!(sorry I’ll stop now)”

    Well that depends on the Anglesea it from!

    Peter.

  7. Could be taken either way clearly

  8. It is plebiscitolacunaesophobia OED, dread of a prolonged or gratuitous gap in opinion polls, neurosis and related insomnia attributed to the unfulfilled expectation of a forthcoming opinion poll.

  9. I don’t get why everyone is so worked up about this poll. If it was only done up to 9am Tuesday, recent events are hardly going to feature. It’s really out of date already and I’m surprised they are bothering with it. We really need to see one covering the last 48 hrs only to see the up to date picture.

  10. @CambridgeRach

    “Leaking the manifesto was a brilliant move, whether it was intended or not. It caught the media’s attention”

    ————-

    Yes, that’s potentially another factor. The media focus on the disorganisation of the leak, rather than criticising the policies. Well, except for “back to the Seventies” in the Telegraph.

    And how bad is that? Some peeps might see it as a positive. The synths were very good in the seventies. And you could do a lengthy guitar solo without embarrassment. Until punk anyway… (And you could sneak a few in after that if you threw in a few bum notes…)

    I can’t remember if it was Hitchens or Oborne, one of those sorts anyway, who not so long ago was writing about how, on reflection, oh how we wish we could go back to the inefficiencies of Nationalised industry like British Rail, when you could afford a ticket and get a seat and didn’t have to do network analysis to work out your connections.

    The other day my partner pointed out another issue with the liberal way: try tracking down lost property on trains these days, when it could be on any one of the trains of several different companies you have to contact all saying it’s not their problem, it’s someone else’s…

  11. AW was referring to the Manifestos poll being done a little bit after the bombing, i.e. up to 9.30 Tuesday.

  12. I agree with Woody @ 7.02 pm

    Moving QT from Northern Ireland is insulting, and will do more damage to feelings and relations there than any gain in Salford.

  13. @Paul Croft
    ‘If Labour win on June 8th [stop larfing please] will Diane Abbott really, REALLY become Home Sec?’

    Not necessarily . She is only Shadow Home Secretary because so few Labour MPs agreed to serve in Corbyn’s Shadow Cabinet.

  14. If by some miracle Corbyn DID win… How many former Blairites in the PLP faced with the chance of a role in government would suddenly decide they could stomach Corbynism after all?…

  15. couper2801,
    ” The young are growing up with a very different world view.”.
    Interesting. The argument has been that while youth start out as idealistic socialist, they end up as jaded conservatives. But if there is forming a completely independent media for the two groups, then they just might wholly go their separate ways and never change over. Thus indeed the population might be more prone to change with the generations as time passes than hitherto. A reckoning coming, if so.

  16. There is a new thread you know!

  17. Danny,

    “The argument has been that while youth start out as idealistic socialist, they end up as jaded conservatives.”

    But what make make a difference is the passing of the “Victor” generation, but the idea of it and indeed the comic.

    In my mid fifties now, And was brought up on The Dam Busters, The Great Escape and 633 Squadron where WW2 really cast a shadow over our culture.

    It had been the defining period in the lives of my generations parents and it effected how they saw the world. We however didn’t see the war we got a rose tinted version of it full of daring do and dastardly Hun.

    I was fascinated by the war as a kid and it wasn’t until my teens watching film of the real Vietnam War that I started to change my views.

    Younger voters today might remember the Falklands which in a way the UK media covered a bit like WW2 but will probably be more influenced by Iraq and Afghanistan and that may create a different mood.

    It’s a bit of a Generalisation but I don’t think it’s completely a coincidence that a reason given, and played upon, by many older voters for voting for Brexit was “Not wanting to be Ruled by the Germans”

    On here you can’t go far in a discussion about Brexit or the EU without a mention of “Junkers Jackboot!” or the like.

    Most of the next generation are more outward looking than those before and still will be after Brexit.

    I know I saw a poll result that showed that something like two thirds of Remain voters had visited Europe in the last three years and two thirds of Leave voters had not.

    I suspect you might find (or Anthony for that matter) that if you looked at that result by age the most pro Brexit groups older voters and working class would often be the least likely to have visited Europe.

    For me I think slowly the long shadow of the Second World War is going to fade and not before time!

    Peter.

  18. 1,068 comments. Alec will be pleased!

    I’m going to join you on the new thread now in a minute.

  19. I wouldn’t say that the Welsh polls were a roller coaster – more of a complete shambles.

    On 24 April 2017 the Conservatives were on 40 per cent and Labour on 30 per cent.
    On 22 May 2017 the Conservatives were on 34 per cent and Labour on 44 per cent.

    Has there ever been a swing of this magnitude in 4 weeks in any election poll ever in the history of UK polling?

    The poll by the same people for the recent local elections was also very wide of the mark. On their own blog they ask “Why should the poll have been so far out from the actual voting figures? ”

    Also in the recent local elections Plaid increased their councillor numbers by about 20% and also share of the vote. Yet this poll shows Plaid down by about 30% 0n its 2015 GE support.

    None of this gives people much confidence in the accuracy of the methodology.

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