There have been two new polls out today – both show a sharp reduction in the Tory lead.

The weekly ICM poll for the Guardian has topline figures of CON 47%(-1), LAB 33%(+5), LDEM 9%(-1), UKIP 4%(-2), GRN 2%(-1). The Conservative party’s support drops only a little, but Labour jump up five to 33% (their highest since June 2016 according to Martin Boon). The fourteen point lead is larger than most other polls – this is for methodological reasons (ICM’s demographic based turnout model gives a large boost to the Conservative party, otherwise it too would likely have been producing a single-digit lead). Note that ICM have also tweaked their method slightly to hide the option of UKIP for respondents in seats where UKIP aren’t standing, though this will likely have only a small effect. Full tabs are here.

Meanwhile a Survation poll for Good Morning Britain has topline figures of CON 43%(-5), LAB 34%(+5), LDEM 8%(nc), UKIP 4%(nc). Changes are from the previous Survation telephone poll a week ago, rather than their online poll at the weekend. Full tabs are here.

Fieldwork for both polls was over the weekend, after the Conservative manifesto launch. While there was already a general movement towards Labour before the manifestos, the post-manifesto polls suggest a further and sharper movement since then. I wrote a while back about how manifestos rarely have much impact in general elections – while it’s impossible to prove a causal link, the timing certainly suggests this is an exception! Perhaps it’s because when elections are five years in the making most policies have already been announced and focus-grouped into things that won’t scare the horses. Or perhaps just because manifesto launches rarely go as wrong as the Conservative party’s appears to have.

Whatever the reason, the question now is whether this is a temporary narrowing that will reverse when (or if) the focus of attention moves onto other subjects, or whether we are heading for a somewhat tighter race than many people expected.


238 Responses to “Latest ICM and Survation polls”

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  1. @RICH

    Andrew Neil is a good interview. I can only imagine the kind of difficult questions he will put to Corbyn.

  2. With the election looking unwinnable for Labour they can fill their manifesto with popular measures safe in the knowledge that they are unlikely to have the inconvenience of being hauled over the coals if they prove unworkable.

    With the Conservatives looking very likely to win they have to ensure their manifesto doesnt hamper their ability to run the country efficiently.

    Clearly the electorate are quite a fickle bunch with a substantial number not liking the sound of actually having to pay for anything they themselves need.

    I do wonder if this poll rebound is just a temporary expression of disdain for the announced policy as I am not convinced that voting intention necessarily is followed up in the ballot box. Opinion polls are a kind of opportunity to register a protest vote, As May says the announced social care policy is actually considerably better than the current situation but clearly it hasnt been spun very well as it is perceived as new additional payments that didnt previously exist,.

  3. Rich – you are presumably referring to the price of nationalisations with the 200bn figure, but they are attained via a bond swap and are cost neutral, since you have an asset (a profitable provider of a natural monopoly) in exchange for the bond.

    So if Andrew Neil asks “how will you pay for your nationalisations” the answer is “a bond swap”.

    There are however a whole host of more difficult questions he could ask Corbyn, linked to such things as defence, Trident, not singing the national anthem, etc.

  4. To me it seems as though the Tory’s have yet to really start properly campaigning in the way the usually do. With their usual constant bombardment of the opposition’s weaknesses, ‘their strong record,’ and big speeches filled with their persuasive rhetoric.
    Currently, all we’ve had from the Tories is the constant repeat of one slogan, ‘Strong and Stable Leadership.’

    It seems as though for the previous 4 weeks the Tory camp haven’t wanted to increase their initial lead in the polls, if anything, they’re happy to see it diminish and Labour rise.
    I personally feel as though this could be a tactic by the excellent campaign manager – Lynton Crosby. As when it comes to 1-2 weeks before election day, the Tories can then point to the increase in Labour and talk about its real potential danger, and how the ‘coalition of chaos’ is an actual possibility now, not just a far fetch idea – like it was in week 1 of the election. Additionally, an increase in Labour will show there is less need for the progressive alliance to form, which could prove a danger to some Tory targeted marginals._

  5. @ MIKE PEARCE

    “There will be relief in Lab ranks that their polling hasn’t gone into meltdown. However Scotland remains dreadful for them. Will Corbyn canvas in Scotland?”

    ————————————————————————————

    I think they’ll accept ‘No progress’ in Scotland as inevitable and concentrate their resources elsewhere. After all, it isn’t like they can lose many seats there.

    In the (unlikely) event of a hung parliament, the SNP seats are going to be lined up with Labour, not the Tories, so there isn’t much point in fighting the SNP hard, and getting no-where.

    As a leftie, I am *terrified* that Labour are going to burn out / be brought back to Earth in the next week / ten days. A couple of polls suggesting the polls are widening again, or a sighting of Diane Abbott, is all it would take. Then suddenly the momentum shifts again and it is all “Theresa May, the Comeback Queen.”

    As someone who enjoys the ebb and flow of politics back home, from the safety of New Zealand, this has been great fun. So much to obsess over! Compared to the drama of British elections, New Zealand’s are profoundly dull little affairs.

  6. Dr Mibbles – a bond is debt!!! Its an obligation which you have to repay!

    There’s also all the ongoing running costs for the trains etc which, assuming you will lower prices, won’t be covered by revenues which you bring in

  7. Good example of house effects and the sever limits of crossbreeds.

    Two polls on the same day and Scotland has;

    SNP 41% or 46% and Tories 23% or 26% a gap of between 15% and 23%. I suppose we could go for 43-4% to 24-5% and a average 19% gap……

    I am starting to think the SNP might do better than I thought because all the opposition Parties are majoring on no to Independence and the Tories don’t seem to be able to benefit from there stance as much as they might have hoped.

    Got an A43 tabloid sized Libdem leaflet in the post today with the front saying;

    “the choice in this election is clear”

    “ONLY ONE”

    “Party can stop the SNP”

    The only One was in heavy bold and took up half the page, no party name or logo on the front. It’s no so much a libdem leaflet as an anti SNP one and I can’t think that it will appeal to anyone but SNP voters.

    In an effort to capture the anti Independence vote at any cost the three unionist parties might to an extent be cutting their own throats by splitting that vote three ways.

    Still hard to see us not losing ground but we might still end up closer to 50 than 40 which would be a bit like getting over 500 at Westminster for Labour or the Tories.

    I have no doubt that as ever everyone will try to spin the result as a resounding vindication of whatever position suits them.

    Peter.

  8. @LURGEE

    Interesting. Is there any polling available on whether ‘English voters would be happy with an SNP / Labour coalition?’ Essentially a Scottish Nationalist Party joint governing England?

    Could be a vote winner for the Conservatives, if they play on it more.

  9. I guess if you were a Conservative supporter, you would hope that nobody watched the Andrew Neil interview.

    However, now that the small parties are effectively squeezed dry, the question is the soft underbelly of both parties.

  10. Andrew Neil is much more savage on the Daily Politics. In the May interview he was more circumspect, slightly more gently persistent. Without answering many of the questions May seemed to battle through it ok. She managed to drag most questions back to a choice between him and me and I suppose over the next few days we will see how that works and plays out.

  11. @DAVID WEST

    I thought so too. She seemed to do well and no major blunders. This and the u-turn, will calm the polls I imagine.

  12. LASZLO

    @”I guess if you were a Conservative supporter, you would hope that nobody watched the Andrew Neil interview.”

    This one certainly would!!

    But I know its a forlorn hope.

    Friday’s will be interesting !

  13. May got through that one fine, although Neil wasn’t as fierce as normal. Let’s see if he takes Nuttall to task tmr.

  14. @ Martin Lloyd

    Of course the new care policy will mean additional revenues, as otherwise they would not bother.

    I only speak from experience from what i have seen. A relative with dementia was in a care home for about 3 years. It cost her all of her cash savings and pension incomes, a total of nearly £120k. They died just before there was any need to sell her property. There were many in the care home that would have had all their fees paid and many In the home who had been there more than 5 years.

    The difference in the Tory policy is a either a charge on property from the beginning or for people to look at equity release products. Some councils won’t be willing to wait for money. If councils legally had to wait until death of say a spouse still resident in the family home to recover care fees incured by their husband/wife, they could be waiting 20 years.

    If there is a cap, it will be set very high. Would not surprise me it was double what was previous advised by Dilnot i.e £150k instead of the £75k. Average house prices are about £260k, so leaves the £100k amount the Tories say they won’t touch.

    In regard to polling and actual votes, i think a perception of the Tories targetting pensioners has probably lost them votes. It is whether they vote for other parties instead, stay at home or vote Tory with reluctance.

  15. I suspect older pensioners, even if they don’t like the manifesto, will hold their nose and vote May over voting for [the] Labour Party. Thoughts?

  16. Rich

    As Colin indicated – on Friday.

  17. @ David West, RO27

    The impact of the interview all depends on the clips the news programmes select in their reports. Only political geeks actually watch the whole thing, most people will form their impressions from a few sound-bites, or how their favourite newspaper reports it.

    Clips like “I’ve asked you 3 times….” will come across as weak and evasive.

    Whereas TM’s set piece statements like “It’s me or him” will play well.

    It’s not the interview, it’s the reportage that makes the difference.

  18. @EXILEINYORKS

    The Sun, Daily Mail, Telegraph, Express will write it one way… Daily Mirror Guardian, etc will write it another… The readers or viewers, who subscribe to these tend to already have a leaning and it will be self serving.

    To undecided voters and the older generation who watched live – Theresa May came across well and without any blunders.

    A good interview and over the 30 minutes held her own, she passed.

    The ball has been batted over to Corbyn now.

  19. Think the unthinkable -say tories largest party -how on earth would they negotiate Brexit.

    But for that to happen -both libdems and labour would have have to take a couple of million votes of the tories.

    A very very long shot

  20. EXILEINYORKS

    I am less sure than you that everything depends on the reportage of the interview rather than the interview itself and, without knowing the viewing figures, I would think this series of interviews (in the absence of debates) will be well watched. I probably have a more sanguine view of the electorate than your good self and believe that by and large they can work things out for themselves and not be fooled by poor or distorted reportage. I think all the leaders will be confronted with having to be asked the same question 3, 4 or 5 times, so I am looking at a dead heat on that particular aspect!

  21. @ RO27

    I refer you to Colin’s 7.43 post – I think I watched the same interview as him. Not sure what you were watching.

  22. Nobody’s talking about Brexit now are they.

    Calamitous mistake by the Tories, even if it was brave. Lots of people saying they’ve “blown it”.

    Will be difficult now to move the agenda backbto the EU, Brussels bureaucrats would be wise to stay quiet for the duration and there may just be a hung parliament.

  23. @RO27

    The Graun is a Liberal paper so may not write the way you think…

  24. @CARFEW

    Depends on which writer if penning a Guardian article. Owen Jones has nail his colours to the mast.

  25. @Jonesinbangor

    Well Brexit had already been suppressed a bit by Corbyn’s policy announcements.

    And one wonders how much would have been made of the social care issue if Corbyn hadn’t already moved things leftwards.

  26. @DRMIBBLES et al

    For the absence of doubt. Bonds are not magic, they haven’t just been invented. Bonds are debt. Bondholders expect interest. Bonds are how governments borrow. All of the national debt is in bonds.

    May was OK in the interview, but who told her to be so dreadfully dull. She is better than this, or she used to be. The other interviews will be interesting but if they are like this one they won’t change anyone’s vote. One thing that struck me though as she avoided answering the relevant question. May is almost certainly only intending to serve one term, hence the need for a mandate.

  27. Does anyone have the ICM figures sans demographic weighting? Thanks.

  28. @EXILEINYORKS

    Then I differ with Colin’s opinion also.

  29. May I ask a question? Sorry if it’s been asked before – there are so many comments on here it’s difficult to trawl through them all.

    Is the increase for Labour mostly down to previous Labour voters who had drifted to Don’t Know or Would Not Vote returning to Labour?

  30. @RMJ1

    I think it will be one term for May also… Corbyn likewise.

  31. Is it possible that the turn around in Wales is credible? A complete reversal from Conservative to Labour in a week!. Tories on the decline and Labour on the increase in the UK polls today. Tighter race? I’d say so – or have the polls got it wrong again?

  32. ROGERH

    @Rich May got through that one ok

    “That must rank as one of the most partisan post of the day”

    Why?

  33. tintinhaddock – yes, it is. Obviously it’s not just that, there are little bits of churn everywhere, and some people who were Conservatives moving into Don’t know, but the most notable movement has been from DK to Lab.

  34. Does anyone have an opinion on what will happen to the stock market if Labour win the Election on June 8th ?

  35. RO27

    There’s an element of that applying to all the papers. They all tend to have some token representatives of other political faiths. To try and appear non-partisan!

    But the OVERALL message is liberal. Lots of attacks on Corbyn. The paper describes ITSELF as Liberal. “Liberal, but not with the truth”

    Guardian voted Liberal in 2010, Indy in 2015. As in the U.S., the press are broadly liberal.

    It’s just that while most of them including Graun, Times, Telegraph etc. are economically liberal, Graun and Indy are also socially liberal, whereas Tekegraph and Mail not really. Times in the middle a bit.

    This fools people into thinking liberalism is centrist and voters are mostly liberal. Not the case as you can see in polling on Corbyn’s policies.

    But power of the press compels parties to become more liberal and if they don’t they tend to get punished.

  36. RAF – without the standard demographic weights, or without the demographic based turnout model?

  37. “Nobody’s talking about Brexit now are they.”

    While I don’t think either Brexit has gone away as an issue, or that the Tories have blown it, I do now start to wonder about the timing of the election.

    How different would it be to have had an election before Article 40 was signed? That really would have focussed the minds, the Tory message being ‘we will trigger Article 40, are you sure what the others will do?’. Now they’ve diffused the situation by calling the election after the triggering, we’re already committed to leaving the EU, so it’s less of an issue than it might have been.

  38. Ian

    “Does anyone have an opinion on what will happen to the Stock Market if Labour win the the election….”

    Down

  39. @IAN

    I’d imagine the Stock Market will have a bigger panic than on the morning of 24 June last year… A Conservatine Majority is has been factored in to it and it would be a shock.

  40. David West and RO27 , thanks

    Any ideas – How Much and For How Long ?

  41. @ro27

    “To undecided voters and the older generation who watched live – Theresa May came across well and without any blunders.”

    Can you link to the polling or focus group results for this? Thanks.

  42. JOHNMO

    Perhaps “the whole of Europe” was also watching the EU when the 65billion bill became 100billion.

  43. If the Tories are not going to gain anything in Wales and may even lose the odd seat, with little chance of their taking anything but a tiny number of seats in Scotland and London and the South already a sea of blue, does this mean the election will be won and lost in the Labour heartlands of the Midlands and the North? If so, it would be interesting to know whether or not polling trends in those regions reflect the overall national averages or are more like Wales. If the Tories are mostly taking UKIP votes and increasing their lead in leafy shire seats they already hold, that will not do them much good on 8th June

  44. @HIRETON

    Gut feeling old boy.

  45. @Anthony

    “RAF – without the standard demographic weights, or without the demographic based turnout model?”

    Sorry – the latter.

  46. Hireton:

    Exactly – there’s little point speculating about how well or badly Theresa May came across to undecided voters in the interview. We don’t have any evidence to measure it, and our own opinions will be irredeemably skewed by our own political opinions. The last thing we did is a predictable parade of Tory supporters saying they think she came across well and Labour supporters saying they think she struggled.

  47. As a Canadian who follows UK politics closely, I have no vote nor preference in this UK election. However, I would like to offer a view not often heard from partisans of all stripes.

    It is hard to deny that the Conservative Manifesto, especially the policy on care costs has holed the ship of state below the waterline. The polls which were kind to the Conservatives are now not so kind and May’s comments on “undertaking a study to put a cap on how much the government will take” seems to recognize the hemorrhage of support.

    It is my view that both the original inclusion of the policy in the manifesto and May’ s gambit to limit the damage are both mistakes that will be hard to overcome. The policy scares both core Conservative voting seniors and those who had traversed to the Conservatives since 2010. Whomever decided that putting this policy in the manifesto needs to be sacked as he/she has handed Corbyn a lifeline and maybe worse.

    Setting that aside, May’s gambit to limit the damage is potentially an even more egregious error. In one move, she shows that:” the Lady is definitely for turning” and thus destroys the strong and stable image so carefully crafted. Secondly, May is trying to plug a two foot hole with a one foot plug. Rather than stand firm and back the manifesto or do a full U-turn and show that she can listen by admitting that it was a mistake and scrapping it , she did neither.

    In Scotland, the SNP has already changed the emphasis of their yet unreleased manifesto to key on the challenges facing pensioners ad those in care to take advantage. Now the question in England is whether Corbyn and Labour can take advantage of these gaffes to frame the last three weeks of the campaign around this issue. If he can, the Conservative tsunami will look more like a dripping tap.

  48. IAN

    RO27

    Impossible to estimate the effect on the market – sometimes these sort of shocks don’t have quite the impact we imagine they will or ought to. At the moment the FTSE 100 is pretty much on its all time high, so I imagine at least 200-300 would come off that at an instant.

  49. If the polls stabalise over the next week – and it’s a big if – then surely Labour will have to find one more big stick to hit May with, otherwise it’s a comfortable if not spectacular win for the Conservatives?

    Not sure what that could be, with the manfiesto out of the way. Corbyn might be reluctant to get too nasty, based on his current mild man of the people persona, but perhaps his handlers less so? Even so, I’m struggling to identify an angle of attack.

    Meanwhile, I didn’t see any questions about Corbyn/May on the ICM poll. Anyone know of any polls showing their relative popularity today?

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