There have been two new polls out today – both show a sharp reduction in the Tory lead.

The weekly ICM poll for the Guardian has topline figures of CON 47%(-1), LAB 33%(+5), LDEM 9%(-1), UKIP 4%(-2), GRN 2%(-1). The Conservative party’s support drops only a little, but Labour jump up five to 33% (their highest since June 2016 according to Martin Boon). The fourteen point lead is larger than most other polls – this is for methodological reasons (ICM’s demographic based turnout model gives a large boost to the Conservative party, otherwise it too would likely have been producing a single-digit lead). Note that ICM have also tweaked their method slightly to hide the option of UKIP for respondents in seats where UKIP aren’t standing, though this will likely have only a small effect. Full tabs are here.

Meanwhile a Survation poll for Good Morning Britain has topline figures of CON 43%(-5), LAB 34%(+5), LDEM 8%(nc), UKIP 4%(nc). Changes are from the previous Survation telephone poll a week ago, rather than their online poll at the weekend. Full tabs are here.

Fieldwork for both polls was over the weekend, after the Conservative manifesto launch. While there was already a general movement towards Labour before the manifestos, the post-manifesto polls suggest a further and sharper movement since then. I wrote a while back about how manifestos rarely have much impact in general elections – while it’s impossible to prove a causal link, the timing certainly suggests this is an exception! Perhaps it’s because when elections are five years in the making most policies have already been announced and focus-grouped into things that won’t scare the horses. Or perhaps just because manifesto launches rarely go as wrong as the Conservative party’s appears to have.

Whatever the reason, the question now is whether this is a temporary narrowing that will reverse when (or if) the focus of attention moves onto other subjects, or whether we are heading for a somewhat tighter race than many people expected.


238 Responses to “Latest ICM and Survation polls”

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  1. This is getting much more exciting now… You need exceptions to prove a rule!

  2. Just watching Corbyn’s speech in Scarborough on BBC News. As people were discussing in the previous thread he has indeed decided to go with the argument that this is not a real U-Turn, rather than the argument that she has made a humiliating climbdown.

  3. Steven Wheeler

    Not meant to be a partisan comment – heaven forfend! – but the crowds that Jeremy gets at these speeches seem to get bigger and bigger.

    Should we read anything into it?

  4. IMO, ICM more than the other polling companies, in the past at least, had an adjustment model as far as I could make out that predicted the actual result based on current responses due to the DK reallocation in particular.

    This imo proved fair for the big 2 (E&W) but the 50% for LDs proved way too generous for 2015 but maybe fair now?

    Their other in effect shy tory adjustment was also fair enough so maybe their new/revised turnout filter will prove right but we shall see?

    Kind of fits in with what many of us saying, though, polls bobbing along 10% lead ish then a 13-15% margin on the day.

  5. looking at the tabs:

    The most typical labour voter is : an unemployed non white female aged 18-24 from the DE social group living in wales.

    Perhaps those posters who have been so keen in the past to label Brexit voters might care to have a stab at commenting

  6. “Should we read anything into it?”

    ———-

    Well I suppose if he retired and did a lecture tour or summat like Blair et al he might make quite a bit…

  7. New Tory election slogan;

    STRONG & STABLE DOOR CLOSED!

    Peter.

  8. Rudyard – Probably nothing to be read into it. See the BBC newsnight analysis of where Corbyn is visiting – it’s mostly safe Labour seats (scarborough is somewhat of an exception in this regard!)

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39927866

  9. The ICM Poll still shows a 14 point lead. Unless we start seeing some 3/4 point outliers or worse then I am still expecting around 14 points on the day.

  10. Didn’t Foot draw huge crowds back in the day? I don think these crowds are floating voters….

  11. Seems that polarisation between the 2 main parties is now pretty much complete. Other than a few more UKIP voters on the day, it is now down to whether the Tories can maintain a % close to 46%.

    If the Tories poll at 46- 48% its game over.

    After the TM u turn or clarification depending on your view, the Polls later this week will tell us if the wobble is over or not.

    Today most of the press are focusing on Corbyn and his relationship with IRA, tomorrow will the press be favourable to TM or move on to something else?

    Wobbly weekend polls 2?

  12. #Rudyard

    Well I suppose if you pretend your hustings is a children’s party you can’t expect a big turnout.

  13. Just for the sake of argument, the final ICM poll for the Guardian before the 2015 election underestimated the Conservatives, rather than being generous to them:

    Conservative 34% (-1)
    Labour 35% (+3)
    Liberal Democrat 9% (nc)
    UKIP 11% (-2)
    Green 4% (-1)
    SNP 5% (+1)
    Plaid Cymru 1% (nc)
    Other 1% (nc)

  14. What, of course, no-one can tell is if the poll sare accurate !

    After 2015, re-modelling has taken place but the scorn heaped upon the polling companies was huge.

    Are they right now?

    Can we tell?

    How Long is a piece of string?

    Who pays the ferryman?

  15. I think the issue with manifestos is that, in the past, they have contained relatively few surprises (positive or negative). This is what has changed. The Lab manifesto contained several big surprises, most of which have been viewed positively, the Con one also had surprises but these have been viewed pretty negatively. The number of new ideas means that the manifestos themselves have gained a lot more media coverage than they normally do. The fact that one is viewed largely positively, and the other largely negatively explains why this time, they are actually having an effect on poll ratings. Simples!

  16. Good afternoon all from a ‘we all basking in the sunshine which portends a bright future’ P(S)RL

    So it does looks likely now that at least in terms of Labour’s % vote Corbyn is going to do better than 2015. be interested to know if there is at any point where his success in attracting English voters (who are supposed to be inherently more right-wing as a whole) will persuade left-wing voters in Scotland to switch back from the SNP to Labour

    @Guymonde

    On the topic of remainer Tory’s not shifting I am tending to come round to your pov, and I think it might in the good old P(S)RL be countering any UKIP – Con switching. If you are on approx. £50-70k pa, travel to work on the trains and your job is linked to the city/Europe you may have voted Tory in ’10 and ’15, but weighing up the respective pros and cons and knowing that most Lab MP’s are pro-remain, especially with social care proposals which could be seen as an attack on their saving plans. Unfortunately for Labour these voters by nature do not exist in large numbers in the midland marginals.

    A U-turn on such a key policy in the middle of a campaign is fairly unprecedented and I am struggling to think of a comparable advantage. How this impacts views on relative levels of competence between May and Corbyn we will have to see – but its hard to see how Corbyn wont benefit from this.

    I am usually wary of comparisons with the US elections (different systems, political traditions etc) but one thing that may be similar is that for many voters this may be very much a lesser of two evils decision.

  17. Has anybody considered that given the outrage at asking older people to pay more for their old age care, what chance either party, especially Labour, getting £58bn out of these better off people and higher rate tax payers?! Not a lot at reckon.

  18. Putting the latest ICM figures into the Swignometer comes up a Conservative majority of 120. With the YouGov opinion results it is only 40.

    Surely the best we can say is that, if the election were held now — as opposed to June 8 — the Conservatives would win comfortably, but we do not know what the margin would be.

  19. Of course, when their is confusion amidst the darkness, people tend to look for a chink of light.

    The question we must ask ourselves is, is it really light, or just a mirage?

    Science is only science, powerful though it can be.

    Humans are complicated beings.

  20. P(S)RL?

  21. Rich

    Are you suggesting that pensioners are the top 5% earners? Hm …

    I think the whole taxation system needs an overhaul, but your point is a kind of … strawman? Slippery slope?

  22. @Rudyard

    Depends who is turning up. If it is just hard core Corbyn Supporters not likely to have that much of an in pact. If ‘normal’ people are turning up just to check it out it could lead to word of mouth endorsements that counter some of the negative messaging from sections of the press.

    I’ve seen him speak a few times, and he is good on the stump and he does come across as honest and sincere (even if you disagree with him).

  23. @ JIM JAM

    P(S)RL?

    I’ve been wondering myself…..?

  24. People’s Socialist Republic of Liverpool was my guess ;-)

  25. @Jim Jam

    People’s (Socialist) Republic of London

  26. @laszlo,

    It’s a bit tenuous yes, but my point is we need a LOT more money for the NHS & social care going forward, but nobody really wants to pay.

    Rich

  27. Rich, polls often support the idea of paying more for the nhs.

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/01/12/majority-people-would-support-raising-national-ins/

  28. I said yesterday that I thought that polls this week would settle somewhere around the 11%-13% lead area….pleased that these first two of the week seem to broadly have the same central point

    Good for Con that there’s 2.5 weeks left before the GE so that the the social care thing can die down….and also that registration end tonight so that social media has less of a chance of taking over!

  29. @Rich

    Louis XIV’s finance minister declared that “the art of taxation consists in so plucking the goose as to obtain the largest possible amount of feathers with the smallest possible amount of hissing”.

    Louis XVI came a cropper because when he sensibly tried to tax the aristocrats for the first time to plug gaps in the budget, they threw such a hissy fit that he caved and taxed the peasants instead, triggering the French Revolution.

    The mirror image of the hissy-fitters is the “freebies for all” brigade on the left. If you could go back to 2003 and tell the Venezuelans that voting for Chavez’s “freebies for all” policies would result in the collapse of the economy and people lynching each other in the street for a fiver, would they be deterred? Or would they fervently cling to the idea that it’s possible to have it all, because that is what they badly want to believe?

    I hope Mrs May does get a large majority because it would free her simultaneously from the hissy-fits of our aristocrats in the press, and from the “freebies for all” stance on the left. She could make some hard decisions, and then retire in 2022 at the age of 66.

  30. @S Thomas

    Have replied regarding your query concerning universal benefits on previous thread. Essential point is you can claw the money back from the rich using general taxation and this has a number of benefits. It’s no biggie, standard stuff which is why we have universal benefits…

  31. Labour advance

    Maybe JC has seen the real lesson of Brexit and i speak as a brexiteer.

    May be the lesson is that when a core of voters found that it could achieve the result it wanted that core will want to come back for more and however many times people will say it cannot be afforded ,it is stupid etc if they want it and they now believe they can have it.Offer them everything. I would be surprised that the Remainers who were so vociferous in their criticisms of the leave campaign cannot see the similarities between the referendum and the general election. Except the boot is on the other foot.

  32. There’s little sign of socialism here in the sunny borough of Kensington and Chelsea today :-)

  33. Quick word on Social Media.

    For people my age (Mid 40’s) and up it really doesn’t have much influence. I have some mates that use it mildly but us old codgers dot use it.

    Do not overestimate its power, there are younger people like my kids that are not particularly rapped up in the social media bubble either.

    Its a large eco chamber but sill an eco chamber none the less. When I’ve kicked the bucket it will just be normal media by then.

  34. Test

  35. I’ve combined msn’s poll of polls with latest scots poll. the upshot of this calculation is a conservative majority of 82 , cons 366 , lab 205 , lib/dems 5 , s/n/p 53 , p/c 3 , n/ire 18. the calculation a week ago was a con average of 120 . On the issue of big crowds just imagine a scenario where we find Corbyn in spitting distance of no.10 with tactic support of Scottish nationalist promising a comfortable majority , the media embark en masse to a rally of Corbyn believers in the region of several thousand baying there approval to his every utterance in the vein of a great change is coming where taking back the country from the elites ,bankers, mainstream media etc , do you think it’s possible this might well focus those soft tory , floating voter with a small c mentality into sombre consideration / reconsideration to put it mildly.

  36. Too much free stuff? Not enough surely…

    Rather than offering too much free stuff, to be honest they could all be offering a lot more freebies, or stuff that’s really cheap. The Internet is another example of summat really cheap for all you get from it, once again initially funded by government. GPS another example.

    Ideally there could be more. If they stuck more money into Thorium might have much cheaper energy. The last government invested quite a bit in a new genetics research centre in the North East which could tie.ld quite a few cures. Government Programmes to eradicate particular diseases are gifts that keep on giving too…

  37. IIRC the moniker was first used for the Peoples Republic of south Yorkshire, led I think by an earlier rather more left-wing David Blunkett.

  38. If the election were won on the number of posters, here in Cov south it would be –

    Con – 0 Votes
    Lab – 21 Votes
    Socialist Coalition – 1 vote
    Green – 1 vote

    Conservatives last here it seems!! In all seriousness Labour have a good ground campaign going on here, very locally focussed. Time will tell if it makes any difference.

  39. Ssssimon,

    Kensington voted roughly 50% con, 30% lab in 2015, not totally blue by any means.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kensington_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

  40. Welsh Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 44% (+9)
    CON: 34% (-7)
    PC: 9% (-2)
    LDEM: 6% (-1)
    UKIP: 5% (+1)

    (via @YouGov / 18 – 21 May)

  41. Bardin – thanks,

    Anyone know how that compares with 2015?

  42. Terry P

    When I was much, much younger, I worked with the son of a Labour MP. On election day, I ran in and eagerly told him that I had counted posters on my to work and Labour had won by a landslide! He shook his head sadly and said, “we always win the poster war”.

    The Conservatives were elected with a comfortable majority that day.

  43. Candy

    The Tories put the retirement age up from 60 to 67 for women of TM age . so she will have to wait another year for her pension and of course no WFA for her.

  44. Huge surge for Labour in Wales – Scully.

    Tories projected to lose a seat with Labour taking Gower back – 26 of the 40 seats in the principality.

    Huge turnaround from previous Welsh polls.

  45. Wales still moving towards CON??

    Apologies if I’m incorrect as I haven’t had time to look at the cross breaks for the latest polls, but! could it be that the conservative slump is in London and the south, i.e in its heartlands.

    Maybe the labour held seats haven’t been damaged too much by the social care thing??

  46. Bearing in mind where the Wales opinion poll was a couple of weeks ago, that must be the end of Tory hopes of gains there. Also shows how soft the switch to Con is in traditional Labour areas.

  47. @ MarkW

    Yes you’re quite right, there are a fair few pockets of Labour and Lib Dem support, particularly in the (ex) LA housing areas to the north, although that’s less the case in my Chelsea constituency, except for the wonderfully named World’s End estate :-)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chelsea_and_Fulham_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

  48. carfrew

    I begin to like this new learning

    As i wrote it i began to think that these labour policies are fantastic for the middle classes. if i had to pay the new Corbyn tax band it may ,say,cost me £5000 more per annum in tax . For that ,say, Josh and Cressida have free university education on 5 year medical degrees.saving them nigh on 100k in debt with debt free high paid jobs at the end.What larks!.Our £2m inheritance wont be touched either.I am sure our cleaner will think it is great as well.

  49. Corbyn is actually bent quite clever. He is just now offering everything to everybody at late rallies. There is no bad news and of course people want to believe it, so they do.

  50. Thank you @ SSSIMON and @REDRICH :)

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