YouGov’s weekly poll for the Sunday Times has topline voting intention figures of CON 44%(-1), LAB 35%(+3), LDEM 9%(+1), UKIP 3%(-3). Changes are from the YouGov/Times polls in the week. The fieldwork was, as usual, conducted on Thursday afternoon and Friday, so was wholly after the Conservative manifesto launch (though, of course, before much of the media reporting and discussion of it)

The nine point Tory lead is the lowest we’ve seen so far this campaign, the first in single figures. As ever, one should be cautious of unusual polls and wait to see if the trend is backed up by other polls before getting either too excited or too panicked (depending upon one’s point of view!). Perhaps it could be that the Conservative manifesto and the coverage of the changes to care funding has knocked their support. Perhaps it’s just a continuation of the gradual narrowing of the Tory lead that we have been seeing anyway over recent weeks. Perhaps it’s just a bit of a outlier, and the next round of polls will go back to showing a larger Tory lead. Time will tell.

There is also supposedly a Survation poll in the Mail on Sunday. No idea yet if that was after the manifesto launches and whether or not it will show a similar tightening.

UPDATE: No figures from the Survation poll yet, but according to the front page of the Mail on Sunday it was done after the manifesto launch and shows a Tory lead of 12 points.

UPDATE 2: The Survation figures are CON 46%, LAB 34%, LD 8%, UKIP 3%. Tabs are here. Changes are complicated – Survation’s previous poll had an 18 point lead, but that was conducted by telephone for Good Morning Britain, while this one is online. Survation’s last online poll using a comparable method was, I think, back in April, and had only an 11 point lead for the Tories.


816 Responses to “YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 44, LAB 35, LD 9, UKIP 3”

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  1. I don’t forsee Labour being able to make much mileage out of TM’s ‘U-Turn’ on care fees – they’ve not shown much skill on the smear front to date. They don’t seem capable of attacking at all really. At the very least, this should stabilise Tory VI in the mid-40s.

  2. Osborne!!!!

  3. I really don’t get why osbourne is getting so much publicity ? He’s left politics for a business career and if you choose to leave the playing field how can you expect to influence future events on it? He’s obviously bitter cos he wanted the top job for himself but he’s out of the picture now so who cares what he says ? For me he will be remembered for that desperate threat of a punishment budget if the country voted for brexit. He lost all credibility with that nonsense so what he says now is irrelevant.

  4. Does anyone have any idea when we might expect the next poll, regional or national?

    With all this activity going on right now, polling is as exciting as ever for the speculative psephologists among us :-)

  5. He’s still the editor of a major newspaper – we’ve been discussing the Mail and Telegraph’s view as well. Also his “at least this manifesto wasn’t carved in a tablet of stone” comment was extremely funny and non-partisan given that it mocks both sides.

  6. Regarding student fees, if Labour hadn’t encouraged 50% to enter higher education (mainly university) and many studying mickey mouse degrees, with DDD at A Level, then we’d have more money to help the rest with their fees.

  7. A *lot* of people still regard Osborne with considerable respect and admiration. To suggest his thoughts would have no effect on public opinion simply because he (marginally) lost the Brexit referendum is unrealistic.

  8. Phil

    At least Osborne got a praise from Corbyn; “And if George Osborne is at last doing something useful in his life of supporting proper funding for social care, then thank you George for that. And I urge him to read very carefully our manifesto says on social care.”

    (I don’t particularly like the passage on social care in the Labour manifesto, but it’s neither here nor there).

    Also, just with Labour’s railways privatisation, social care financing appears to have a very different appeal in London (and the South), and other parts of the country.

  9. @phil

    its not about your opinion though is it?

    Its what the media decide is important. He was chancellor for 6 years until less than a year ago and editor of the evening standard – so he is very much a big beast.
    He is seen – rightly or wrongly – as speaking for an important faction within the tory party and the city of london who are not too chuffed with mays seeming ditching of free market polices – or her pushing (or being pulled?) towards hard brexit. There’s also clearly bad blood between the two – so this adds to the juicyness of the story as far as the media is concerned.

    Many on the left despair of the attention Blair gets – but its the same dynamic at play.

  10. STEVEN WHEELER
    Also his “at least this manifesto wasn’t carved in a tablet of stone” comment was extremely funny and non-partisan given that it mocks both sides.

    Agreed, although it probably hasn’t done much good for his prospects of a knighthood or a seat in the HoL.

  11. I wonder if Anthony would care to comment on this opinion poll where Labour appears to have a majority of over 400. Maybe a double what he said about the other one? Much higher sample size though of 70,000 :-)

    https://ge2017.gritdigital.co.uk/#2017-opinion-poll

    Oh well I guess ICM along later today to calm everyone down.

  12. Seriously does anyone think the Labour party are going to pick up 60 Conservative seats at the G.E.

    This is the minimum no of seats required to make Labour just the largest party on ‘293’ Tories down to 270 + 3/4 Scotish seats makes 274.

    Labour clearly have no chance of gaining any more than 1 seat in Scotland.

    LABOUR could be 7% ahead of the Tories and still not be the largest party .

  13. @SSSIMON

    Hardly anyone likes Osborne. They see him as an Eton toff who, like Cameron, just enjoys the “excitement” of power. Then when he got bored he ran off to Blackrock and the Evening Standard to make money, which is what people like him only care about.

  14. Shevii –

    What sort of comment do you want? Anyone who takes it seriously is an imbecile.

  15. Osbourne was actually St Pauls school .

  16. PHIL
    now it’s one of the few things May has kept running as a policy from that time an suddenly its the worst idea in the world and totally unworkable !!

    I wouldn’t have thought that drawing attention to May’s inability to keep her promises since 2010 to control non-EU immigration would be a good way of keeping UKIP supporters onside.

  17. @ Shevii

    LOL! What’s the point of such an absurd website/poll?

    I suppose this does bear out some of those who’ve been saying social media is a very left-of-centre thing, much to my surprise.

  18. If only there was some way of measuring public attitudes towards George Osborne? Perhaps by asking a balanced sample of people if they had a positive or negative opinion…

  19. All the people , who say this will go away are engaging in wishful thinking.Until she tells us the maximum we will pay ,she will be hounded by it.If she says nothing they will say what has she to hide.

    I believe people believe that the state taking away their house ( even after you are dead) is a problem for her
    Whether its true or false ,.The Tories build up a reputation of being the party of homeowners.

    A english man/women home is his castle and all that , what has happen to the Tories.

  20. Apologies for the unclosed italics.

  21. Everyone on the radio is talking about “strong and stable” today. Oh dear

  22. @Shevii
    Lib Dem figure seems a bit high. ;)

  23. I’m not Osbornes biggest fan but […snipped personal opinion of Osborne & partisan stuff]

    It’s his actions during the EU Ref that leave a bitter taste with many voters.

    He needs to be careful not to burn his bridges with the Conservsative Party, especially if he wants a Political Comeback one day.

  24. SHEVII
    I wonder if Anthony would care to comment on this opinion poll where Labour appears to have a majority of over 400. Maybe a double what he said about the other one? Much higher sample size though of 70,000 :-)

    Fantastic poll for people in a hard left echo chamber. A friend of mine who is basically a socialist on Facebook has been sending round on their political mates. What result do you expect?

  25. @Edeyrn

    There is no point eyeing the money in offshore accounts. If it is this hard to persuade Londoners with vast equity in their houses to pay for their own care in old age, how do you suppose any govt will access that money in offshore accounts? Especially as people with that kind of money can easily buy citizenship elsewhere?

    Look up the amount of global billionaires moving to New Zealand (which they perceive to be safe as it is a friendly anglo-saxon nation, with protection for wealth and located far away from the migrant and war and terrorist zones of the northern hemisphere).

  26. @JohnMo

    I think Mrs May has an interview this evening with Andrew Neil, and he’s bound to press her on it – and she’ll have an answer ready. So we shall know by tonight.

  27. @JACK2000

    He may have been at St Pauls but I was just saying that’s how he comes across, what with his Bullingdon background.

  28. I predict Tories moving back towards initial polling by next weekend. Let’s see.

  29. @rich.

    I saw it on facebook and voted for my friends daughter who is standing in a different constituency to where I live – and according to the “poll” now looks set to take over turn a solid tory majority with a 38% swing.

    Its just a bit of fun that nobody whatsoever is taking seriously. In the same way that Daily mail or sun online polls get regularly trolled by people spaming them on left wing social media circles – or man united fans voting that man city’s new stand should be called the “Bell End”.

  30. If I was TM I would:

    -Scrap Foreign Aid, its what most of us want
    -Use the Foreign Aid to (partially?) fund social care
    -If some more money is required, say you’ll increase corporation tax and then simply don’t increase it after the election. Cite Brexit.

  31. Is it of any interest that the FTSE/currency market is taking no notice of swings in the polls so far? I would assume it’s too early in the hustings for there to be any real movement, but I wonder how the markets would react if the opinion polls narrowed further. Certainly, the bookmakers’ odds are changing, though only slightly considering the mood music, and those of a gambling bent might be tempted by some fairly attractive odds on Corbyn as PM or a hung parliament.

  32. rich

    I predict Tories moving back towards initial polling by next weekend. Let’s see.
    _____________

    You’re probably right but this week’s polls are at least breathing some life into to what has been a very dull election.

  33. Britain Elects? @britainelects 2m2 minutes ago

    Westminster VI

    CON: 47% (-1)
    LAB: 33% (+5)
    LDEM: 9% (-1)
    UKIP: 4% (-2)
    GRN: 2% (-1)

  34. @Rob

    You are of course entitled to your opinions.
    But I can’t think of a single university course that requires 3 d’s and George Osborne didn’t go to Eton

  35. WHen was the fieldwork for that Britain Elects poll? If it was recently, then that’s very good news indeed for Theresa May.

  36. To answer my own question, fieldwork 19th-21st.

  37. Mike

    It’s ICM’s poll. Fieldwork 19-21 May (so the weekend)

  38. Mike,
    “Agree with Jonathan Stuart-Brown about polls being broadly correct before, and broadly correct now, and that Theresa’s May popularity is wider than it is deep.”

    I think part of the problem is that a campaign does matter. it sets a finishing line and a period for decision making. Polling asks people to imagine how they would vote, but it cannot recreate the decision making process. So while the polls might be correct in that those people would make that decision if teleported into a polling station at that instant, it is not the same decision as they would have made given a month or two’s notice and a real outcome to spur them on. People do have an opportunity to listen to a few politicians during the campaign which they would not normally bother to do.

    Corbyn’s reputation has been trashed and May’s heralded, without voters having any real interest in testing this for themselves. Now they will form their own opinions. Corbyn seems to be doing better than his press, while May seems to be doing worse.

    Both social care and university fees are pressing social issues. The scale of university fees is becoming ridiculous and socially damaging. Social care is collapsing for lack of funding. Solutions need to be found for both these things, they are worthy subjects for an election campaign.

    I remain concerned that pollsters are asking too many politically engaged people and this is skewing their results.

  39. MIKE

    19th-21st.

    This poll is good news for TM but the rest of them are looking wobbly.

  40. @Rob

    ‘-Scrap Foreign Aid, its what most of us want’

    Can you link to the polling on this?

    I’ve seen contradictory polling on increasing and decreasing foreign aid ( depending on how the question is asked) but don’t recall any immediately on getting rid of foreign aid completely.

  41. Laszlo

    Thanks. Still some negativity to factor in then, as the mood grew gradually worse over the weekend, but if they really are holding steady at 47%, I wonder why they bothered with the panic u-turn today?

  42. Osborne

    What line is he now pedalling?

    Some might say […] But i am a paragon of moderation so i do not say that.

  43. Another way of looking at the latest poll…

    ICM Unlimited? @ICMResearch 28s29 seconds ago

    Conservative lead over Labour slashed from 20 to 14 points in the latest ICM/Guardian poll #GE2017

  44. @mike

    Is it that good? Labour closing the gap by six points?

  45. MIKE
    Is it of any interest that the FTSE/currency market is taking no notice of swings in the polls so far?

    Perhaps that’s because, like us, they have no idea whether passporting will be available to them whoever wins and implements whatever Brexit turns out to be.

  46. When people get in the booth, middle England will not vote for a socialist. This is my honest feel despite the uptick and clear poor week for Cons.

  47. There is something strange in the ICM write-up, referring to improved Labour performance in the marginals.

    Although they have regional cross breaks, but then the MoE is high. Also, within these regions there are some marginals, and some solid. If they are referring to even smaller (constituency level) cross breaks, well …

    Unless they did some private polling, of course.

  48. @ANTHONY WELLS: “What sort of comment do you want? Anyone who takes it seriously is an imbecile.”

    Obviously not a serious opinion poll – it’s self-selecting from an unrepresentative sample – but it’s perhaps significant because it illustrates the strength of party support on social media.

  49. @Hireton

    I’d say it was very reassuring for TM because if the Conservative Party can genuinely get 47% on the day, then every other party’s figures are pretty much irrelevant.

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