We normally have several polls on a Saturday night in the election campaign – this week is no different. We definitely have polls from ORB for the Telegraph, Opinium, and YouGov in the Sunday Times, plus whatever else comes along in the Sunday papers.

ORB for the Telegraph has topline figures of CON 46%(nc), LAB 34%(+3), LDEM 7%(-1), UKIP 7%(+1). The trend of a gradually narrowing Conservative lead continues, with Labour creeping up above their 2015 share of the vote. Fieldwork was on Wednesday and Thursday, so this will have been mostly conducted prior to the launch of the Conservative manifesto.

Opinium has topline figures of CON 46%(-1), LAB 33%(+1), LDEM 8%(nc), UKIP 5%(nc). The same trend is present – a gradual narrowing of the Conservative lead, though a twelve or thirteen point lead would still give them a very solid majority. Fieldwork for Opinium was on Tuesday and Wednesday, so wholly before the Tory manifesto.

I’ll update later with the YouGov/Sunday Times poll later…


197 Responses to “Latest ORB and Opinium polls”

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  1. @Candy

    I am sure that does at least in part explain it. I also think it partly explains the CON increase in Scotland as SNPs pro European membership stance and the many statements by the FM on the subject would push anyone who wanted a reduction in immigration towards the CONS.

  2. Prof It does My father is a conservative and he states this time he is not voting.My mother in law has dementia.So our family are very aware of all the circumstances involved with long term care.

  3. I’ve thought for a long time that it doesn’t matter who leads the opposition or what the policies are, this is a war election and the leader will get re-elected regardless.

  4. “The Tories hitting their core pensioner vote is a mistake, but I assume they think the pensioner vote will not go elsewhere.”

    All generations of families will be worried the Tories will take nearly all of their inheritance to pay for social care. Pensioners (and their children) will like the Labour policy of scrapping student fees for the grandkids. These things can involve enormous sums of money so could matter more than who the PM is.

  5. RICH & ANDY WILLIAMS @ MARKW
    Will people stop using the crettiness word ‘progressive’ to describe anything left of centre. It’s annoying and contextually meaningless.

    Per Merriam Webster:

    Antonyms of conservative: broad-minded, large-minded, liberal, nonconservative, nonconventional, nonorthodox, nontraditional, open-minded, progressive, unconventional, unorthodox

    And the word you were looking for was cretinous, BTW.

  6. To me it seems as though the Tory’s have yet to really start properly campaigning in the way the usually do. With their usual constant bombardment of the opposition’s weaknesses, ‘their strong record,’ and big speeches filled with their persuasive rhetoric.
    Currently, all we’ve had from the Tories is the constant repeat of one slogan, ‘Strong and Stable Leadership.’

    It seems as though for the previous 3 weeks the Tory camp haven’t wanted to increase their initial lead in the polls, if anything, they’re happy to see it diminish and Labour rise.
    I personally feel as though this could be a tactic by the excellent campaign manager – . As when it comes to 1-2 weeks before the election day, the Tories can then point to the increase in Labour and talk about its potential danger, and how the ‘coalition of chaos’ is an actual possibility, not just a far fetch idea – like it was in week 1 of the election. Additionally, an increase in Labour will show their is less need for the progressive alliance to form, which proves a danger to the Tories in some marginal seats.

  7. RE New voter registrations

    We all know how many times people have tried to get the younger voters vote. It never happens, they never vote!.

    These new voter registrations , can you opt for a postal vote when you register initially? If you can how many take this option ? Would this not vastly increase the likelihood of these new voters to actually vote? might it make a difference?

  8. CambridgeRachel

    In the constituency where I try to help Labour, there is a common agreement among activists (with one exception, poor thing) that JC is an unwitting Tory plant (some have more colourful conspiracy theories).

    So the campaign completely ignores him, and all materials coming from the HQ (resources don’t come for some reason).

  9. CambridgeRachel

    Good to see you posting again.

    “But also what’s going on with the Tories refusing to send spokespersons to news rooms to defend their policies?”

    It was a common tactic during the “Better Together” campaign. Don’t expose yourself to needless questioning in situations that you don’t have absolute control over.

    Gordon Brown’s “interventions” were a perfect example of that strategy.

  10. There are many reluctant Labour Supporters and it may well be that the Tory manifesto (and more accurately the impression) will get these reluctant Labour Supporters out.
    I believe 2015 Labour Retention is already up which was to be expected, but could this increase further.

    I hope it is not partisan to say that beyond Brexit delivery Leadership the Tories do not have much of an advantage over Labour except on defence.

    Strong and Stable only lasted a week in its usefulness so the opposite is true also that the Dementia Tax noise will fade in a week or 2 I guess, although most postal votes will be cast in the next week.

  11. Rumour on twitter:

    https://twitter.com/PimlicoBlues/status/865988978448764928

    “There are currently rumours around Old Street that Labour have polled 36% tonight. Two points off the Conservatives too #GE2017”

  12. Candy

    Nail on head.

    UKIP voters will not vote Labour under Corbyn. They are driven by control of immigration and exiting EU.

    TM will control immigration ( not by as much as UKIP voters want) and is prepared to walk away from a bad deal( in a negotiation you must have a walk away position).

    Corbyn will not convince UKIP voters he can deliver what they want.

  13. JOSEPH1832 @ BZ
    Given Labour’s response to the Juncker leak, they appear to be on the EU’s side of the negotiations.

    I must have missed that. As an expat I can’t always manage to keep up with all the news – or even all the posts on these threads.

    Do you recall when it happened?

  14. The good news for Tories is they have time to reposition the argument, but this Labour uptick is purely down to a complacent Cons manifesto from an inner circle thinking they can sell the Tories against a weak opponent even with nothing exciting on the doorstep. That was a mistake definitely.

  15. I don’t believe the Tories ever make a mistake under their election guru

  16. @Adam,

    What’s the score then? Give me hope!, as my lifelong Conservative supporting mum hated the manifesto with a passion…

  17. Look at the 1983 polls – started with 20 point lead, down to 9 points mid-campaign, then recovered towards the end and still delivered a thumping victory.

    I suspect this year will be similar. Tories will be keeping their powder dry until next weekend, then with 10 days to go will open fire. Dubya’s Shock and Awe will have nothing on this I suspect.

  18. “Corbyn has indicated he favours unlimited immigration), and that’s the reason former lab people who went UKIP are not returning to lab.”

    Corbyn very strongly favours UK jobs going to UK people wherever possible.

  19. Look at the numbers carefully. Any labour bounce is at the expense of the lib dems. Tory vote is pretty much rock solid from the start of the campaign in every single poll. The lib dem single campaign objective to rebrand their party to the ‘let’s pretend the referendum never happened party’ is failing badly and Corbyn has benefitted by default. Even so the lib dems won’t fall much further so he can’t do much better than this. May will still be in by about 80 even on these figures and that will be job done.

  20. There’s two possible outcomes if the gap appears to be closing – The Other Howard fear factor in the booths gets May home by a distance – but conceivably the momentum itself sweeps along the young, the disenchanted, the ant-Tories and even the kick the Establishment types – an Old Labour manifesto that gets Old labour turnout and Old Labour share of the vote?

    Wonder what the odds are on Corbyn being PM in June? He’s out there, drawing crowds, getting cheered, winning friends…where’s the other lot?

    It’s possible the attack dogs in the last couple of weeks will just get more angry people out to vote JC.

    Jez We Can!

  21. Rich If I was a Tory candidate in a marginal , i think i would have a problem explaining this to pensioner or their kids .I think the Dementia tax is exciting on the doorstep, this was a dull election until the Tories manifesto.

    By the way my money on a Tory mag of 40-50. Last week i believe it would be over !00

  22. Nick P

    The other lot are in the marginal seats which will decide the election.

    The Tories are still polling circa 47% and the polls say that Jez is not a suitable PM

  23. > TM will control immigration

    May has already shown herself incapable of it while Home Secretary. To be fair no one else will control it either. It’s a necessary and mostly beneficial fact of life.

  24. We’ll see what happens.

    Previous poll certainties included Remain win, Miliband neck and neck and of course Hilary home and dry.

  25. From the doors the tory vote is sinking fast from the manifesto launch. losing a lot of votes either switching to labour or just not voting now. This really could be a hung parliment now. So much so im looking at putting a bet on it

  26. Rich – I think the Tories realise that JC doesnt appeal to anyone apart from his real core base and therefore there’s no problem being honest with policies. I do think it was odd though not to have much positive at all in their manifesto.

    I’m expecting them to turn up the heat on Labour and Corbyn in the final few weeks given that the Tory campaign so far has been ridiculously quiet and passive. I presume that they were thinking that the closer we get to the election without polls moving the better and no point rocking the boat unnecessarily

  27. Those who think that CON’s campaign will change gear in the last two weeks, that they have some clever plan to unfold will be disappointed. It is not in Mrs May’s character to produce surprises. This her campaign and she will stick to the same themes until the end and, sadly, loose her chance of a large majority.

  28. the argument that labours improvement is part of a cunning tory plan to scare voters into conservative if it looks like corbyn might end up as pm is nonsense.

    The tories – like many people – have underestimated the appeal of corbyn and what he represents and have been complacent about their poll lead.

    Im still scratching my head about the social care policy – its almost like its designed to lose them votes.

  29. @Kevwat,

    Nah, zero chance of hung parliament.

  30. @Danny

    The argument has always been that Corbyn would be able to attract voters who previously did not vote in significant numbers – I hope it proves true (I have always been sceptical of this view) and the number he can get out outstripped those who are driven by Brexit.

    Also whilst a month ago if you had told me Corbyn could take votes directly of the Tories I would have dismissed it out of hand – but I think the Tories have made an error in taking the elderly vote for granted as well as not offering much apart from Brexit to ordinary working people. With the angry remain vote going Labour (as its known most Lab MPs are Remainers) Labour look like doing a lot better than I thought a week ago, but a week is a long time in politics so my optimism remain cautious.

  31. Adam

    I think the idea of “tough luck” to dementia , stroke, and other elderly victims (and their families) needing care did not play well. It was a negative. Sir Andrew Dilnot (warden of Nuffield College, and former head of IFS) had a much better system all worked out in a report that the previous Conservative/Liberal government had commissioned that shielded the risk a lot more. To many people who have worked on this issue the Conservative manifesto idea on this area seemed a wasted opportunity.

  32. Andy T
    The only polling we’ve seen on marginals was mixed. The straight VI question slightly favoured the Conservatives, but the ‘thinking about your constituency’ one favoured Labour more strongly.
    BTW I can never understand why you get a different answer to these questions, as you always vote in your constituency. Which question did is a more accurate predictor of how people will vote, who can tell?

  33. @ANTCORNWALL “Those who think that CON’s campaign will change gear in the last two weeks, that they have some clever plan to unfold will be disappointed. It is not in Mrs May’s character to produce surprises. This her campaign and she will stick to the same themes until the end and, sadly, loose her chance of a large majority.”

    Most thought the Election was a pretty big surprise. As was ruling out the single market, customs union, freedom of movement and the ECJ early doors.

    Anyway TM won’t be running this campaign. Lynton Crosby is.

    There’s still 2.5 weeks to go which is a long time.

  34. “Im still scratching my head about the social care policy – its almost like its designed to lose them votes.”

    It looks that way. Remember, May put together the manifesto with very few other people involved. May is a remainer and might want a coalition; as did Cameron.

  35. Wonder whether TM will reverse the social case policy in a week or so…..it being a ploy to make her show that she listens to feedback etc on things?

  36. RogerH

    Anyone who can stick it out as Home Secretary for 6 years has guts. Immigration was out of control and will be until Brexit is fully implemented. Her hands were tied by the coalition for 5 years and she still had to ultimately report to Cameron for 1 year.

    [snip] I still think the polls showing bias to Labour by 3%. The left are always politically more vocal. Check out Sun article on Labour’s private polling.

  37. DAVID JACOBS @ BZ
    But that’s politics for you.

    Perhaps the Cons should choose another moniker if they don’t like the dictionary definitions.

  38. Ciderman asks whether Mrs May would have called this election had the polls been showing where they are today.

    The answer is yes. The present level of Tory support is consistently higher than it was in the days and weeks prior to April 18th when the election was called.

    All that’s happened here is that the distribution of the votes between the loser parties has changed in Labour’s favour. That in fact suits Mrs May because there was, at the time, thought to be a very real risk that Remainers in certain areas would vote tactically for the Lib Dems and oust Tories where the Lib Dems have traditionally done well.

    Mrs May is in a stronger position in these polls than she was the day before the election was announced.

    There’s also a hidden underlying feature in these polls which isn’t fully appreciated. We are not seeing any polls for the regions of England. The closest things we have, are the Scottish and Welsh Polls and the London Polls, all of which demonstrate that the swing to the Tories is much larger outside London than it is elsewhere. And outside London, is where the marginals are. The Tories will win more seats than uniform national swing on these figures suggests.

    I’ve been saying all along that there’ll be a majority of 60 or so for Mrs May which she will be more than satisfied with.The purpose of this election is to strengthen her hand in the Brexit negotiations and to put off the date of the next one till 2022 instead of 2020, when it’s imminence would have wrecked the final stages of the negotiations

    Mrs May had no choice but to call this election Otherwise delivering Brexit would have been impossible. I repeated several times on this website in the months prior to March that Mrs May should call this election for that reason.

    The big plus for her of course will be that if Labour does avoid an electoral meltdown Corbyn will certainly stay on and bllght the Labour Party for years to come and if the Lib Dems do as badly as it looks like they will, it will be the final nail in the coffin of the Remainers because the Lib Dems have founded their campaign solely on Remain.

    She will also have freed herself of the 2016 Manifesto Tax Commitments and have the mandate for the changes to the Triple Lock etc.

    In 2018 the new constituency boundaries come in which will remove the huge disadvantage the Tories have in boundaries well in time for 2022 and will start a civil war in the Labour Party.

  39. Squeexedmiddle:

    “May is a remainer and might want a coalition; as did Cameron”

    haha – is that a serious comment? Someone deliberately tries to lose and un-loseable election for a hidden motive like that? She wouldnt last 5 mins in her role if she didnt end up with a majroity

  40. @David

    Of course, when needing independent and unbiased confirmation of something, I always go to articles in ‘The Sun’ first.

    ;-)

  41. People need to remember opinion polls at the last few elections have under estimated Tory support and over estimated labour. It always happens that the tories do better on the day itself. The point about immigration is the time the tories listened to the message from the referendum when people made it clear they wanted this sorted out. The other parties are ignoring this. Once we are out of the EU and aren’t forced into accepting the free movement of people any longer the we can at least start to get grip on this at long last. At least the tories are trying the other parties seem to have put their heads in the sand and thrown in the towel on this area.

  42. I’m usually wrong on everything, so you blues needn’t worry – but things have a feel about them of a perfect storm about them -unassailable lead, unelectable leader, split party etc etc and then surprisingly inspiring manifesto, complacency and a couple of slips in the Tory manifesto – could be see panic set in in final week?

    This would really be the hugest upset of the the whole queue of them we’ve seen.

    I promise you I’ve heard people enthuse about Corbyn who have never ever voted, or haven’t bothered for years.

    Something in the air…

  43. “Anyway TM won’t be running this campaign. Lynton Crosby is.”

    Not the Lynton Crosby who ran Zac Goldsmith’s mayoral campaign so successfully?

  44. Speculating upon the motives of politicians normally tells us more about the person doing the speculating than the politician’s motives, and really doesn’t lend itself to non-partisan discussion.

  45. David

    Well said. There are plenty of people looking to knock TM, but the polls clearly show who the voters want to be PM. ( and that includes a significant number of Labour voters as well).

  46. NICKP
    Jez We Can!

    :<)}

  47. @Reggieside

    “The tories – like many people – have underestimated the appeal of corbyn and what he represents and have been complacent about their poll lead.”

    What people have done is wrongly conflate Corbyn the leader with Corbyn the campaigner. The accepted wisdom was that Corbyn was such a weak leader that the Lab campaign would eventually unravel as the campaign progressed.

    However, why did anyone believe Corbyn was a poor campaigner? He’s been involved in campaigns all over the UK for 40 years. He’s possibly the most experienced campaigner in UK politics!

  48. The YouGov Poll of 47/36 would be remarkable because assuming that there is little further switch from UKIP to Labour, the Lib Dems would have to poll around 5% to make the maths stack up. This would result in complete wipe-out of the party. Zero seats! Tory majority would still be cover 70 seats.

  49. Nick P

    “Something in the air…”

    I noticed it was “strong in stable”, when we took the kids to the National Museum of Rural Life. :-)

  50. @DAVID
    “Anyone who can stick it out as Home Secretary for 6 years has guts”

    She’s as ard as nails…and Cosby ain’t daft…

    The labour bounce by promising everything is free for every one is more than they might have reckoned on but it’s still going by the playbook…

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