We normally have several polls on a Saturday night in the election campaign – this week is no different. We definitely have polls from ORB for the Telegraph, Opinium, and YouGov in the Sunday Times, plus whatever else comes along in the Sunday papers.

ORB for the Telegraph has topline figures of CON 46%(nc), LAB 34%(+3), LDEM 7%(-1), UKIP 7%(+1). The trend of a gradually narrowing Conservative lead continues, with Labour creeping up above their 2015 share of the vote. Fieldwork was on Wednesday and Thursday, so this will have been mostly conducted prior to the launch of the Conservative manifesto.

Opinium has topline figures of CON 46%(-1), LAB 33%(+1), LDEM 8%(nc), UKIP 5%(nc). The same trend is present – a gradual narrowing of the Conservative lead, though a twelve or thirteen point lead would still give them a very solid majority. Fieldwork for Opinium was on Tuesday and Wednesday, so wholly before the Tory manifesto.

I’ll update later with the YouGov/Sunday Times poll later…


197 Responses to “Latest ORB and Opinium polls”

1 2 3 4
  1. JOSEPH1832 @ BZ

    Fair enough, but both Con & Lab have stated they will negotiate to leave.

    Given that Corbyn is suspected of being a closet leaver whilst May at least nominally campaigned for remain, why should leavers [as most UKIP voters presumably are] choose one party rather than the other?

  2. It could also be a very bad thing for Labour especially if they poll 34-35% and hold the Tories to a relatively low 50-60 seat majority. This would be seen as a plucky fightback by Labour and JC would almost certainly refuse to resign – the prospect of a split would surely become a lot higher?

  3. Telegraph has a write up on the Orb poll:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/20/exclusive-telegraph-orb-poll-one-four-labour-voters-back-split/

    Labour are picking up most of the Remainers

    They also asked Lab voters how they would feel if the Labour party split after June:

    25% agree it should split
    36% don’t know
    39% oppose a split

    They also asked Lab voters whether Lab and the LibDems should merge:

    29% agree they should merge
    31% don’t know
    40% oppose a merge

  4. @Adam

    Do you really think that? I would have thought that far far more people vote at an election based on their natural politics and the national party, rather than their own local MP. I’ve not seen any data to back that view up, and perhaps I only think that because its the way I vote.

    By posting on this site, it puts you in the ranks of political geekery (like me and most other regulars.

    I think the average voter doesn’t think the same way.

    As for evidence, look at those MPs who who were really good local MPs who buck the GE trends. I used to live in Selby (before it became Selby and Ainsty), and John Grogan held that sta in 2001 and 2005 when he should have been blown away. Why? Because he was a brilliant local MP.

    As regards ‘natural politics’, Brexit has blown up old allegiances for many voters.

    So, if a voter isn’t strongly tribal, thinks TM is headed for a big win anyway, why wouldn’t they vote for the current MP, regardless of party, if they have been really good at standing up for local services?

  5. @BARBAZENZERO – Fair enough, but both Con & Lab have stated they will negotiate to leave.

    There is a major difference in stance though.

    The tories position is that we are leaving and if we can’t get a good dealwe’ll leave with no deal.

    Labour’s position is we will leave but not until after an acceptable deal on the Single Market (which being as their position is that Freedom of Movement must end, means there will be no deal on the single market which means we won’t leave).

  6. Andrew Myers, I think there are many possibilities, lab are clearly doing better than many expected and i expect new alliances to form.

    It is possible that rather than a schism we may see a rapprochement accepting that a more progressive agenda may be labour’s future.

  7. Correction

    @Adam

    Do you really think that? I would have thought that far far more people vote at an election based on their natural politics and the national party, rather than their own local MP. I’ve not seen any data to back that view up, and perhaps I only think that because its the way I vote.

    By posting on this site, it puts you in the ranks of political geekery (like me and most other regulars.

    I think the average voter doesn’t think the same way.

    As for evidence, look at those MPs who who were really good local MPs who buck the GE trends. I used to live in Selby (before it became Selby and Ainsty), and John Grogan (Lab) held that seat in 2001 and 2005 when he should have been blown away. Why? Because he was a brilliant local MP.

    As regards ‘natural politics’, Brexit has blown up old allegiances for many voters. They count for much less know.

    So, if a voter isn’t strongly tribal, thinks TM is headed for a big win anyway, why wouldn’t they vote for the current MP, regardless of party, if they have been really good at standing up for local services?

  8. @BZ
    “Given that Corbyn is suspected of being a closet leaver whilst May at least nominally campaigned for remain, why should leavers [as most UKIP voters presumably are] choose one party rather than the other?”

    Because most Tories have embraced full-on Leave, whereas large parts of the PLP still want to retain some elements of the single market.

  9. Will people stop using the crettiness word ‘progressive’ to describe anything left of centre. It’s annoying and contextually meaningless.

  10. Rich, no.

    I cant help the English language and I am certainly not patronizing your peccadilloes.

  11. @RICH – Will people stop using the crettiness word ‘progressive’ to describe anything left of centre. It’s annoying and contextually meaningless.

    Yep, wholeheartedly agree. It’s a meaningless word that, along with social democrat are used by people who pretend.

    ‘Progressive’ in a political context just means change – the opposite of keeping everything the same with no changes to anything at all. Putting kids back up chimneys is progressive.

    And as for social democrat, Hitlers nazis, Pol Pot etc etc easily fit the definaition just as much as Labour or the Tories.

  12. Liberal – Thatcher.

    Another example.

  13. @barbazenzero:

    Given Labour’s response to the Juncker leak, they appear to be on the EU’s side of the negotiations. I do not think many Leavers would have confidence in them.

    Corbyn’s real views are too well hidden to matter.

    If the EU is unreasonable in negotiations, I guess no more than 20 Labour MPs would stand up to them. Most would deny it is possible for the EU to be unreasonable – at least if they weren’t upset by the Juncker business, it is hard to see what would count as the EU going to far.

    So, on Brexit, Labour is not really attractive to Leavers. But Brexit is not where the campaign is currently happening…

  14. I understand that some get upset with this, but words can have more than one meaning, and progressive in the sense I use it does not imply ‘ better’ but rather as the opposite of traditionalist.

    I don’t think this debate needs rehashing here yet again.

    noun
    1.
    an advocate of social reform.
    “people tend to present themselves either as progressives or traditionalists on this issue”
    synonyms: innovator, reformer, reformist, liberal, libertarian, progressivist, progressionist, leftist, left-winger; formalneoteric
    “people present themselves as progressives or traditionalists”

  15. @ Jim Jam

    From previous thread about cashing out my bet.

    I had already spread the bet when it became clear that the Lib Dems were not getting the lift expected, I placed a bet at 4/1 for 11-15 seats and again at 4/1 for 16-20 seats.

    The only way I can lose money is if the Lib Dems get over 20 seats, I would lose all three bets if that happened, though I am in no rush to cash my 18/1 10 seats and under wager out at present as I am in such a strong and covered position.

  16. OK then MARKW, name any political party in the UK from the SWP on the left to the BNP on the right with everything in-between that doesn’t advocate social reform in one way or another.

    You can’t. Therefore they are all progressive, as are their members and as are the people that vote for them.

  17. Apologies Anthony for my over enthusiasm slipping into partisanship.

    I shall desist henceforth.

  18. @Adam

    I think some of assumptions surrounding management of the economy, state intervention etc are changing. The hold free-market economics has had for the past couple of decades is lessening. In addition it looks like people expect tough times ahead and are going to get hit one way or another. The Tories are signalling they think taxes will go up, and I wouldn’t under-estimate the negative impact of the budget NI fiasco. In such a context Labour’s offering may look more appealing.

    Also the tripple-lock issues may end up proving to counter to Brexit – especially in the North.

    The slick controlled Tory campaign may also turn people of – I am reminded of the contrast between John Major on his soap box and the slick professional managed approach taken by Labour in ’92. Corbyn’s out and about style could be seen as more appealing.

    I don’t think Corbyn is hated (or ever has been), in fact I think a lot of people have a rather endearing attitude to him, even amongst some of those who would never vote Labour. The question mark over him is competence. Therefore an over personal attack on him may backfire.

    Overall Labour are gaining ground – I think they need to be getting to 38% to start making May worried.

  19. MarkW

    I don’t think the meaning of the word ‘progressive’ is particularly disputed. But it can be used in a way that suggests “I am more forward looking than you who are backward looking”. And I’m think many, not everyone, do use it to imply something like that.

  20. On a lighter note, whilst we obsess over the election, the Telegraph and Mail thinks that the biggest story is the wedding of the future king’s sister law, who is only famous because she wore a tight fitting bridesmaid’s dress, which no bride would have allowed except as a rouse to spread the fame and celebrity…

    If people worry about such things, then pity the party making announcements today!!

  21. Update on voter registration:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/39987278

  22. Once this weekend is out of the way the manifestos will be forgotten fairly quickly by the public and the Tories will start using the heavy artillery. Three things will be banged on about and used by the press and Team May to very publicly batter and ridicule Corbyn and his front bench:-

    BREXIT
    Economic Competence
    Defence/security.

    I suspect that by the end of May onwards it will be relentless.

  23. Andy, yes indeed people argue endlessly about what words mean, and I accept one persons idea of progressive may be traditional to another.

    But i am sure you accept that the word progressive is associated with the tendencies espoused in the dictionary bit I copied. This is how the word is usually used.

    Your just being a teeny bit pedantic and a weeny bit vexatious maybe a bit.

  24. Hireton

    Yes the voter registration story is a good one for this election. Very good to see regardless of where the vores go.

  25. @Rich

    Liberal – Thatcher.
    Another example.

    Look they are all part of a Liberal Illuminati Progressive Conspiracy that has been in play since Gladstone and Disraeli, – you should read David Icke on the topic ;-)

  26. I promised myself some time ago that if the exit polls on election night predict a Tory majority of 50+, then I’ll not stay up for the results – TM will have achieved her objective and there won’t be much excitement in the actual results. Less than that and it will start to get interesting.

    With the emerging trends, the next week of polling will be fascinating. Playing around with the Electoral calculus model, there seems to be a tipping point at about 43% Con where a plausible Labour turnout could result in a majority little different from what it is now. At the moment, there seems to be a ‘floor’ at around 45/6% Con which has only been broken by the occasional outlier. In my own echo chamber, which is as unrepresentative and unreliable as everone eyes, the Tory manifesto has not gone down well with the core, blue rinse, Tories but not to the extent that it shifts tribal loyalties or voting intention. Whether it has affected the UKIP -> Tory movers to the extent that the 45% floor is broken (or at all) we shall see.

    I’m still looking forward to an early night and a good sleep on Election night, but will keep my diary clear for the Friday morning for the time being.

  27. Its the economy ?

    If you are a pensioner your economy has just been trashed by TM, cuts in pensions in real terms a £6 A week cut in the fuel allowance and a ruling saying don’ t get Dementia or we will take your house of you after your dead.
    what has happen to the Tories , i was born in 1954 (63) and she has taken me to the cleaners .I have a small private pension and a small house and both my father and mother had dementia.

    Forget the pensioners my kids are to happy either.

  28. Andy, perhaps, but I used the word here, to polling and politico geeks defending it’s proper use.

    I propose dropping this now as this has popped up too many times over the years.

    Sorry i got some in a tizzy.

  29. @Andy

    So “progressive” is too partisan a word for you but “swivel-eyed ferret” is ok?

    Any word to describe a position in politics is going to be a bit ambiguous but we use words like conservative, traditionalist, republican, unionist etc and most people understand what they mean.

  30. The size of the Cons majority will largely be determined by the behaviour of a few key groups of voters:

    1) Former UKIP voters
    2) Scottish Unionists
    3) Centrist remainers

    Until a few days ago it was looking good with all three for Cons, but now I’m not so sure.

    Two out of three of these groups have a preponderance of older voters who may view the Con manifesto policies on Social Care and Winter Fuel Allowance as a direct threat to their circumstances. For those on lower incomes and few assets the Winter Fuel Allowance would be the bigger concern, for those with more assets the Social Care policies will be seen as the greater threat to their personal situation. These policies are a gift horse for Cons opponents to be able to play the “nasty party” line, and tip a small but potentially signficant number of voters way from Cons.

    In Scotland herding the unioinst vote is at the heart of Cons strategy – 1-2% more for Lab and 1-2% less for Cons make a big difference in seat outcomes (difference between ca. 10 Cons gains and 1-2 gains). Despite Kezia Dugdale’s best endeavours on their behalf, the task for SCon has beon a little harder.

    A similar impact can be seen in Lab seats with big UKIP votes in 2015. Potential Cons wins in places like Hartlepool are contingent on herding a large part of the leavers into the Cons camp. The manifesto has made this task a little bit harder.

    For the centrist remainers, this might just be the assist that Lib Dems desperately need to hold on to their current seats. Their own strategy has misfired, but painting Cons as the nasty party might just save a few skins.

  31. I see there is a little note in the conservative manifesto about increasing regulation and control of the internet. Do they mean us? Presumably everyone here would come into the category of being of interest to security services.

    What do voters feel about being further spied upon by the state or having their google searches pre-filtered by the government of the day?

  32. Old Nat @ 6.53 pm

    Kez D`s advice on tactical voting for Highlands and Borders constituencies, does not necessarily increase a Westminster Tory majority.

    Kez clearly wants to get Tory votes in return in constituencies where SLAB is most likely to beat the SNP. So both parties CON and LAB get more seats, and SNP lose some.

    Demonstrating that moderate CONs and SLAB have much in common encourages tactical voting both ways. And clearly angers the SNP.

    That Aberdeen City is continuing to be run by a Labour-CON alliance even though the SNP is the largest party has badly upset some SNP folk. But wiser SNP heads such as Peter here, accept that this is how democracy sometimes works.

  33. @prof Howard.

    Sadly I ageee! Complacent…

  34. I think the election has been cancelled. ever since the Tory manifesto the reporting on the election has gone on the backburner. It’s like it’s not worth reporting on. But also what’s going on with the Tories refusing to send spokespersons to news rooms to defend their policies? It’s happened a few times now which I can’t remember in any other election campaign

  35. @toh

    Indeed. It will be interesting to see whether the pollsters turnout filters – especially for younger people – turn out to be valid. I just wonder whether more young people will be prompted to vote after the experience of the EU referendum.

  36. ANDY WILLIAMS @ BZ
    Labour’s position is we will leave but not until after an acceptable deal on the Single Market

    So what? That’s much more detail than we have from Ms May. At least leavers have some idea of what Lab plan to do.

  37. David West,
    “the Tory vote is rigidly solid at 46% in these last 2 polls and may well be similar or slightly more in the ones to come. Labour need to steal votes from the Tories themselves ”

    Strictly speaking, no they dont. Although polls might claim tories have 46% and labour have 30%, this is forgetting the 24% who have declared for other parties. But most signifcantly, the approximately additional 50% who have declared they will boycott the election.

    Because of the way the polling results are presented, that is a tory 46% out of total 150%, not 100%. It might be very difficult to motivate these other people to turn out, but theoretically labour could beat the tories comfortably without taking a single vote from them.

    The danger to established parties of someone like Corbyn, or indeed Farage, is that they motivate completely new sets of voters to turn out in a rather unpredictable way. If no party is offering a left wing platform, it is impossible to judge on past performance how it will be received. Much of this predicting lark relies upon past data.

  38. Agree with the comment about that, being politically centre right, I think the use of the word ‘progressive’ for various things left of centre verge on being insulting. It comes across as someone said above – that the ‘progressive’ people are forward thinking whereas others are stuck in the past or intellectually challenged.

    I’m glad that I’m not the only one who thinks that way!

  39. CambridgeRachel

    Nice to see you.

    Labour does the same (not turning up or setting conditions that call for refusal).

    I don’t think the Conservatives want to answer to any question in concrete (like costing), because then they would have to answer the others too. So refusal is easier.

  40. The Tories hitting their core pensioner vote is a mistake, but I assume they think the pensioner vote will not go elsewhere.

  41. @cloudspotter,

    Yes I agree.

  42. TOH
    As you say, it is good to see high levels of voter registration, regardless of where the votes go.
    Voter turn out by main parties in 2015 was
    Conservative 11,334,576
    Labour 9,347,304
    Based on the BBC report there will have been somewhere near 3 mllion new registrations by Monday’s deadline, of which 40% are under 34. The resultt will be interesting.

  43. RAF @ BZ
    Because most Tories have embraced full-on Leave

    So HMG says, but they have done nothing more than send A50 notification in nearly a year, so they hardly seem to be in a hurry to put it mildly.

    OTOH, I don’t think Corbyn has any “precious union” baggage unlike May, so he might be less concerned about re-unification of Ireland, which wouldn’t look good on May’s CV.

  44. The continuing feature of these two polls is the solidity of the Tory Share of the Vote. It hardly varies from week to week.

    The way the votes are shared between the loser parties is irrelevant.

  45. Danny,

    Yes, of course, the Tories could theoretically lose whilst still on 46%. I was only really stating a view that I thought they would probably need to bite into the Tory VI in order to win. Can’t quite see Labour 54% Tory 46% as being the result, We shall see…..

  46. My elderly Mother and Father have both said to me they are not voting this time.The first time ever in a GE.I asked why they said they did not feel any of the parties were worth supporting .They live in a safe conservative seat so it will not matter .However I wonder if many feel the same and it will effect turnout but not the result which is a forgone conclusion.

  47. John Pilgrim

    Any figures on the total electorate size??

    Are we ahead of 2015/ in line with EU ref numbers?

    Because last time the extra voters helped leave, the result on 2015 electorate was estimated to be 51 49 remain or something like that. everyone back then was stating the high turnout would be young voters and good for Remain, very wrong they were.

    polls pointing towards a turnout of mid to low 60’s. Id say a 65% turnout is likely.

  48. Re the quality of the Conservative manifesto I wonder whether they were hampered in its drafting by the need to keep the decision to go for a snap election from all but a few in the party?

  49. @Barbazenzero

    The Kippers arn’t just concerned about Brexit, they’re concerned about immigration.

    Corbyn has indicated he favours unlimited immigration), and that’s the reason former lab people who went UKIP are not returning to lab.

  50. Hitting older people who have dementia seems off-putting to some Conservative voters to whom I have spoken.

1 2 3 4