We normally have several polls on a Saturday night in the election campaign – this week is no different. We definitely have polls from ORB for the Telegraph, Opinium, and YouGov in the Sunday Times, plus whatever else comes along in the Sunday papers.

ORB for the Telegraph has topline figures of CON 46%(nc), LAB 34%(+3), LDEM 7%(-1), UKIP 7%(+1). The trend of a gradually narrowing Conservative lead continues, with Labour creeping up above their 2015 share of the vote. Fieldwork was on Wednesday and Thursday, so this will have been mostly conducted prior to the launch of the Conservative manifesto.

Opinium has topline figures of CON 46%(-1), LAB 33%(+1), LDEM 8%(nc), UKIP 5%(nc). The same trend is present – a gradual narrowing of the Conservative lead, though a twelve or thirteen point lead would still give them a very solid majority. Fieldwork for Opinium was on Tuesday and Wednesday, so wholly before the Tory manifesto.

I’ll update later with the YouGov/Sunday Times poll later…


197 Responses to “Latest ORB and Opinium polls”

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  1. Would May have called this election with 12 or 13 point leads? That’s only margin of error from where they are now.

  2. First

  3. I’m not convinced the approach Labour is taking is just aimed at galvanising their core vote. Many of the policies, appear to be aimed at giving those who haven’t bothered to turn out something to vote for. Not sure if the polls are picking those people up, given the weighting for likelihood to vote which most of them seem to employ.

  4. At the moment Labour just seem to be attacking the Tory pension policys, If they keep this up for 3 weeks it will do damage to the Torys.

    I don’t think any of this weekends polls will tell us enough even if done from Friday onwards. Its the polls next week after the public have taken everything in that will show us how close Labour are

  5. If you put Tory and UKIP as one bloc, and Labour/LibDem/Green as another…

    …nothing has shifted this election.

    But if the shift within the left bloc to Labour is tactical, then the result may defy predictions. Or the swing to Corbyn might vanish like Cleggmania, or like an old oak table.

  6. Earlier in the week I said that the LAB manifesto was a game changer and I expected the CON manifesto to be dull. As a consequence the CON lead would narrow. The CON manifesto is actually worse than dull and the lead is getting less by the day. On June 8 I predict a 9 point lead. I don’t know how to turn that into seats.

  7. It would only take a chunk of the angry pensioners defecting from Tory to Labour “to teach them a lesson” after the manifesto fiasco, and we’re heading towards hung parliament territory. Next week’s opinion polls should be interesting.

  8. @antcornwall – the majority would still be around 75-80 with around 360 Tory Seats and 215 for Labour.

  9. Mike

    That would be some lesson.

    A hung parliament and Brexit negotiations – atleast the EU would be happy as our negotiating hand would be very weak. We would surely need to call another election( another one!) perhaps we could rerun the Brexit referendum like Tony B suggested.

  10. JOSEPH1832
    If you put Tory and UKIP as one bloc, and Labour/LibDem/Green as another…

    Not all of UKIP’s policies were in line with Con thinking – they’re for PR, for example. Former Lab voters who believed the leave campaign may well return to a Lab which is now committed to leaving the EU.

  11. I think democracies should be competitive, and I consider landslide victories as a bad thing. Governments need to earn their corn, and passing new laws should be through a parliamentary system that challenges them hard. New laws should not be a procession whipped through the lobbies.

    I suspect that most voters:

    a) expect a Conservative win that is very comfortable

    b) know that Jeremy Corbyn is very unlikely to be PM

    Given that, I am not convinced that the public at large wants to see a huge TM majority (150+). While Blue tribalists may want to destroy Labour to a rump, a broader perspective is that this leads to poor Governments as they have no opposition.

    The Conservative campaign has been very centralised and controlled, and I wonder if some people worry that such an approach to Government, especially one with a huge majority, might not be that good.

    Many people will live in Labour seats who may have doubts about JC as PM, but they may well like their local Labour MP and be happy to vote for them as an extra opposition voice.

    Therefore, I think areas with good local Labour MPs might hold their vote much better that current polling suggests.

  12. If it was a hung parliment Corbyn would never allow another election just jump into bed with the SNP, Im also predicting around a 8 to 10 point win for the Torys

  13. If the gap closes to much it could hurt Labour, We know people don’t seem to like Corbyn in general and pinching there nose to vote Labour as Corbyn has no chance of winning.

    But would they change if Corbyn did start to have a chance

  14. People need to get a grip on reality. There’s no chance of the Tories losing their majority. None whatsoever.

  15. Peter Crawford

    Why not? If Corbyn reclaims all of the wavering moderates in his party, and nicks the rump of the LibDems now that Brexit seems to have retreated as an issue, there is, as Rudyard would say on here, “everything to play for”.

  16. I think there will be a majority of 50 to 80 for the Tories, that would be 20+ higher without the dementia tax and the ending of the pensions lock. But it could be as low as 30 and as high as 100+.

  17. @peter crawford.

    No – the Tory’s losing their majority is very unlikely.
    But – given the recieved wisdom when May callled the election – anything other than a big majority will look like failure – and a bit of a moral victory for corbyn.

  18. Mentioned above, the report that 25% of lab voters favoured a lab split.

    Most in the survey preferred no split, 36%.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-voters-split-party-loses-general-election-jeremy-corbyn-theresa-may-tories-a7746606.html

  19. “If you put Tory and UKIP as one bloc, and Labour/LibDem/Green as another…nothing has changed the election”

    This is so and interesting but: (1) are we seeing a slight drift back to UKIP, and this may increase after CON manifesto (2) LDEM campaign is weak and there has been significant move to LAB which will continue.

    I many constituencies (including where I live) UKIP are not standing but I wonder how many UKIP voters know this and will be surprised and a little lost on polling day. I think these votes will be spread randomly.

  20. Andrew Myers Thank you for those figures.

  21. I do believe the Torys could lose there majority or have something pretty slim, The more I look at this election the more I see Labour doing well, Im predicting 8 to 10 point win.

    Something much smaller like Labour 38 Torys 42 would not suprise me though. I did put a bet on Labour +200 seats when Labour were much weaker and thats look much better now.

  22. Regarding the Opinium net approval ratings:

    Theresa May has gone from +15 on 10 May to +17 on 20 May

    Corbyn has gone from -28 on 10 May to -18 on 20 May

    Farron was -21 on 10 May and is still -21 on 20 May

    Nuttal has gone from -38 on 10 May to -36 on 20 May

    Big improvement from Corbyn, but Mrs May moved up too. Farron now rates as worse than Corbyn, it’ll be fair to conclude that the public have taken a dislike to him and he’s a drag on the LibDems.

  23. I’m struggling to see why people say that the Tories ending up with a majority of 40-50 might be seen as a failure for TM?

    Sure she’d like a lot bigger majority but if there a realistic chance of her not being able to get things done with that sort of majority?!? It also gives her an extra 2 year post-Brexit before the next election

    Some of the comments on here about there potentially being a hung parliament look utterly crazy based on the Tories getting 45% – 50% in the polls possibly with more to come from UKIP defectors. There would have to be a monumental change for the Tories to get down to the very high 30%s, which I believe is somewhere around the figure where they might realistically get <326 seats

  24. Of course, any TM majority (and my money is on about the 90 mark) means manifesto commitments can be pushed through the Lords via the Salisbury Convention. In the last Parliament I think she felt limited by Cameron’s manifesto.

  25. I’m also struggling to see how Corbyn could ever get much higher than the sort of figures which Lab are polling given the very left wing nature of his policies. His supporters will love them, but they can obviously only vote once even though they might really really really like JC and like him more than the average Tory voter might like TM.

    There’s a natural ceiling to any party’s support if you don’t appeal to the centre ground. Its similar to the Tories under IDS, Hague, Howard etc

  26. @Adam

    People will vote for Labour MPs they like, even if they don’t like Corbyn, because Labour won’t be the next government and the Labour manifesto won’t happen.

    Not all people who vote for Labour do so based what they think of Corbyn.

  27. We have come a long way from the start of the campaign when Labour were in the mid 20’s and some posters were even suggesting they would go below 20. Similar people are being more realistic now and we have less of predictions of a 150-200 Conservative majority.
    Cannot see the Conservaties losing and think they will likely increae their majority, but 50 or so seems far more realitic than 150.
    The other issue is that if they do get a 50 seat majority I think they may still struggle to get some of their more controversial measures through, WFP, care costs etc. It would only take 25 or so of their own party to rebel to make them think again and I would expect atleast that number woUld if past form is anything to go by.

  28. There are many reports in the papers and anecdotally from canvassers that the whole hate JC thing has been vastly overplayed.

  29. @Catmanjeff “Of course, any TM majority (and my money is on about the 90 mark) means manifesto commitments can be pushed through the Lords via the Salisbury Convention. In the last Parliament I think she felt limited by Cameron’s manifesto.”

    I believe the Lib Dems have stated they will not be party to that convention any longer.

    But in any case, the Parliament Act can ram anything through the Lords with a year delay if necessary. Or she’ll simply appoint more Lords to cancel the Lib Dems out.

  30. Catmanjeff –
    Do you really think that? I would have thought that far far more people vote at an election based on their natural politics and the national party, rather than their own local MP. I’ve not seen any data to back that view up, and perhaps I only think that because its the way I vote.

  31. CATMANUEFF.
    The Labour ‘brand’ to use a new dictionary word seems strong and stable for many.

    Lib Dem poll figures are too high, IMO, in comparison to real votes and seats.

  32. May is comfortably home. For Labour to obtain 35% would indicate that having an alternative set of policies isn’t the suicide note the Blairite wing hoped for. Leaving Corbyn to take the blame has spectacularly backfired. However, Labour still needs a leader without the baggage.

  33. CON seats on the betting markets have barely budged for the last two weeks (mid 390s):

    https://www.ig.com/uk/marketanalysis/ig-shares/conservative-election-seats

    LAB seats are up (now 168 from low around 150) at the expense of LDEM (now 14 from high 20s). SNP stuck around 46

    Basically those putting their money on the outcome don’t see any real change in the size of CON majority just a small rebalancing in how the opposition seats are broken up.

    On betfair the probabilities are narrowing slightly around the central expectations as the clock ticks down and less chance of something “unexpected”.

  34. This is all a cunning plan to keep Corbyn in situ.

  35. Very interesting that Corbyn and Labour are getting a little boost recently. I think the reasons are obvious:
    1. Positive coverage of the manifesto.
    2. Bad coverage of tory manifesto in relative terms.
    3. Lib Dem collapse.
    I also think to some degree people are actually seeing Corbyn in interviews and on the T.V without the only impression they get of him being the papers. up to -18 from -28 is a remarkable improvement in a small amount of time.

    If I were to try and help I would say Labour should keep hitting the Tories on this elderly issue of social care and Dementia Tax. Tories should pivot back to Brexit again or get there press in the Mail/Telegraph/Sun to come up with another load of bad press for Corbyn maybe I.R.A stuff or Hamas stuff try and get it in the news cycle.

  36. Trevor Warne, less time for events as the clock tics but any events that occur are likely to be larger and more impact-full, like the much anticipated Crosby input or more foot in mouth from TM.

  37. ^ or foot in mouth from Abbott, Raynor.

  38. Trevor Warne,

    At the beginning of the campaign people were suggesting the libs would get seats, at these levels, they are likely to lose seats on a net basis.

  39. Rich, I am referring to such things as the plans for end of life care and fox hunting that most agree are unfortunate as regards maintaining wide appeal.

  40. Barbazenzero: “Former Lab voters who believed the leave campaign may well return to a Lab which is now committed to leaving the EU.”

    There may be Labour-to-UKIP pure protest votes returning, but the average genuine Leaver is hardly likely to see Labour as genuinely committed to leaving the EU. The polls suggest most people haven’t got a clue what Labour’s general direction is on this issue, and half of the rest think it is to throw their hand in.

    Remainers may feel disappointed at Labour’s approach, but Leavers are hardly likely to be trustful.

    But then not every ex-Labour UKIP voter is necessarily especially thinking of Brexit, I suppose.

  41. MarkW: “Rich, I am referring to such things as the plans for end of life care and fox hunting that most agree are unfortunate as regards maintaining wide appeal.”

    These were somewhat incompetent. If you are going to run a campaign on Brexit:

    a) Promise a new election for when Brexit is done; and
    b) Don’t do controversial things on the home front.

    I have only canvassed once back in 1992. A surprising number of people see fox hunting as an absolute vote turner.

  42. It’s absolutely normal for party leaders to say “vote for my party, because we are the best.”

    It’s less common for party leaders to make their principal opponents, the main story by saying “supporters of other parties should vote for my party, in order to beat Party X”.

    It’s even less common for a party leader to identify the parts of the country in which her party’s supporters should vote for another party (especially when that other party is the one they are supposed to want to prevent getting into government.

    However, Kez Dugdale doesn’t follow standard procedure.

    “In the vast majority of seats across Scotland, it’s only the Labour Party that can beat the SNP. There are a few different cases in the Borders and the Highlands, where the Tories might be better placed.”

    While she clearly wants to attract SCon and SLD folk to tactically vote SLab to beat the SNP. identifying “the Tories” (and not mentioning SLD) as the preferred alternative to the SNP seems unwise.

    Those folk passionately devoted to the UK Union will probably have already decided to vote tactically for that option.

    But a large section of the population isn’t passionate about independence/union. They may well have a preference one way or another, but they aren’t consumed by the question, as the Unionist parties in Scotland are.

    What message does it send out to the slightly politically interested voter, that SLab prefers their to be a bigger Tory majority at Westminster, than there to be a bigger set of Opposition MPs?

  43. This could actually be a good thing for the Tories, it will ensure Tory voters don’t get complacent……

    If there were a lot of complacent Tory voters, this could snap the result back in to a landslide?

  44. It could still turn out to be a fascinating election – but the Tory vote is rigidly solid at 46% in these last 2 polls and may well be similar or slightly more in the ones to come. Labour need to steal votes from the Tories themselves and, who knows, maybe the post Tory manifesto polls will show that. Conversely the Corbyn factor might bite late in the day (a bit like the Kinnock factor in 1992). If that happens we are straight back into landslide territory (probably still in it even on these numbers). If the Tory VI dips to sub 45% post manifesto, then……

  45. @Mike,

    Why not?

    Because middle England doesn’t like militant socialism.

  46. Polling

    The best advice for the Tories is to listen to Corporal Jones.and stci to the plan.

    1. The Tories are not losing support so far;

    2. Labour is has learnt a lot from the trump campaign although i do not hear the trump critics levelling it at Corbyn. He has learnt that you can make any promise, any proposal, say two things about the same thing and both sides will hear what they want to hear and it just does not matter.He believes that voters are thick and holds them in contempt because he knows that if you offer someone something for free they will take it and not ask where you got it from. Two examples and it is deliberate:

    1. Brexit. Different people say either we would walk away from a bad deal or there is no deal bad enough to make us walk away:
    2. Trident.- committted to trident or committed to a review which will consider Trident.

    Ineptitude or deliberate?

    It seems to me that the real story is the collapse of the Lib vote. IMHO liberal remainers have seen the stagnation of the Liberal vote nd the increase in labour and have decided that the best way to halt Brexit is to entrust it to corbyn. Good decision to make if that is what you want.

    The problem for the Tories is that the media is sniffing a story and go light on Corbyn. On the other hand a sense of perspective is required. With less than 3 weeks to go the Tories are massively ahead and the tactic must be to re-concentrate on Brexit.

  47. Rob, the tory vote is usually the most solid so I would guess scope for improvement is small.

    I wonder if the lab party can get the young to vote and those who haven’t voted for a long time. That has potential to be a greater effect as those groups have traditionally been poor at turning out.

  48. I forecast the imminent arrival of a dead cat

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