We normally have several polls on a Saturday night in the election campaign – this week is no different. We definitely have polls from ORB for the Telegraph, Opinium, and YouGov in the Sunday Times, plus whatever else comes along in the Sunday papers.

ORB for the Telegraph has topline figures of CON 46%(nc), LAB 34%(+3), LDEM 7%(-1), UKIP 7%(+1). The trend of a gradually narrowing Conservative lead continues, with Labour creeping up above their 2015 share of the vote. Fieldwork was on Wednesday and Thursday, so this will have been mostly conducted prior to the launch of the Conservative manifesto.

Opinium has topline figures of CON 46%(-1), LAB 33%(+1), LDEM 8%(nc), UKIP 5%(nc). The same trend is present – a gradual narrowing of the Conservative lead, though a twelve or thirteen point lead would still give them a very solid majority. Fieldwork for Opinium was on Tuesday and Wednesday, so wholly before the Tory manifesto.

I’ll update later with the YouGov/Sunday Times poll later…


197 Responses to “Latest ORB and Opinium polls”

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  1. I dont think Bill Cosby being involved would help TM.

  2. @Ronald Olden

    Totally agree with your analysis, though I would be surprised if the Tories only end up with a 60 majority.

  3. Jeremy Corbyn just appeared on stage with The Libertines! Not sure what he said as he was drowned out by 10,000 young people chanting his name and cheering. Wonder how many of them are registered to vote…

  4. Squeezedmiddle,
    “I wouldn’t be surprised if May wants to be in a coalition Govt.”

    It did occur to me that the worst outcome of this election for labour might be to win a majority. To be landed with trying to follow through the negotiations which May has set up.

    The conservatives appear to have deliberately written an unpopular manifesto. Presumably they understood this. So two options, either they think they have such a big lead it doesnt matter, or they had no choice.

    This is a manifesto to cut government spending, so if it was forced then they are expecting a worsening of the economy, and feel they must prepare the ground.

    If they realy do think there is much bad news ahead, then a coalition with labour or complete loss of majority would take responsibilty from them. A bad economic outcome would upset remain voters who never voted for it, and any rowing back in order to mitigate harm would upset leave voters. Potentially both could fall out of love with the tories at once.

    David West,
    Perhaps you missed my point. The final result might end up labour 40%, conservatives 35% (not a prediction but an example), yet the total number of people voting conservative be exactly the same as current polling, where they are on around 45% with labour 35%. There are more people out there who could vote but have not declared for anyone than have declared for the conservatives. At least theoretically labour could double their vote without any other party losing any of the voters currently predicted to support them.

    The headline percentages ignore everyone not declaring they will vote, and thats 1/3 of the electorate. Scope for an entire new party, if only they could be united on something.

  5. I don’t buy into the various conspiracy theories that where we are currently is what was planned by someone, somewhere.

    My belief is that the only party that was caught off guard by the election being called were the Tories themselves; it was only, as one poster put it, TM having a focus group with some Welsh sheep, that changed her mind to do this.

    IMO, both the Tory Campaign and manifesto have been devised in a panic and the faults are beginning to show. Whether or not this will prevent the objective of a strong, working majority being achieved remains to be seen but, if it isn’t, then there will be blood on the carpets of Conservative party HQ afterwards, for sure.

  6. TERRYP
    Electorate was 46,420,413. Turnout was about 30.5k, 66.1%.
    How does that work out in terms of a likely similar percentage turnout, but possible increased percentage young electorate and turnout?

  7. I think people HAVE missed the point. Jeremy Corbyn’s biggest selling point is that all the usual suspects either hate or deride him. He ain’t them – that means the people who don’t like them, might vote for him.

    Telling people what a disaster voting for him would be – that hasn’t worked well with other polls has it?

  8. @Danny

    Sometimes I don’t know whether you post just to get a rise from people.

    In one post you have suggested the theoretical possibility of a turnout in the 85%-100% range so there being a scope for a new party and also the possibility that the Tories wrote a bad manifesto deliberately so they could lose the election and go into coalition with Corbyn!

    I think you are stretching the limits of credible discourse.

  9. Bardin @ 8.24

    “”I also think it partly explains the CON increase in Scotland as SNPs pro European membership stance and the many statements by the FM on the subject would push anyone who wanted a reduction in immigration towards the CONS””

    I reckon only a small percent of Scottish voters are worried about immigration, and the great majority are much more concerned by staff shortages in education and health.

    It is our old-age care and comfort being threatened by immigration controls that worries, whilst folk are not too concerned about immigrants` life styles. The great majority of incomers have been honest and hard-working, and RC churches have boomed with many Poles now attending.

    The UKIP-type anti-immigration right-wingers probably comprise less only 5% of voters here, and most of them will doubt that the Tories will actually deliver their promise of <100,000 to the UK each year.

  10. Surely that poll is an outlier. I can’t see a 9% narrowing of the lead as plausible!

  11. Blimey – looks like straightforward Tory-Lab churn to me.

  12. This poll suggests that some Conservative/UKIP to Labour movement is happening.

    I wonder if the Conservatives can rescind the care proposal from their manifesto in any way. They might need to.

  13. Another week like that and fully fledged panic WILL set in

  14. Watch the Tory attack dogs start barking. Only the country knows Corbyn’s frailties. This may be tighter than anyone thought.

  15. The torys have gone and blown it with that manifesto, the lead will keep coming down. Im very happy with my labour 200+ bet now. This is really heading into a hung parliment from something that should of been a landslide, Ive no idea why the torys could of been so blind to these policys

  16. Worth bearing in mind that the Conservative lead is still huge.

  17. I suspect the Tory campaign will start to get more personal now. We know people don’t think much of Corbyn as a leader, and I reckon this will be driven home in the coming week.

  18. The following tweet gives the changes differently:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/866031653315129348

    Westminster voting intention: CON: 44% (-1) LAB: 35% (+3) LDEM: 9% (+1) UKIP: 3% (-3) (via @YouGov / 18 – 19 May) Chgs. w/ 17 May)

  19. Someone earlier posted a twitter comment which said it was Con 38, Lab 36 so I think I’ll just wait til something from YG or ST

  20. As per my post of yesterday – I just knew (and I’m not sure quite how!?) that the polls would narrow dramatically this weekend once the Care Proposals had dawned on voters. I was hearing so much gossip about in town that I knew something had hit home, and it wasn’t in TMs favour. It is one of those rare events where listening to lots of anecdotes in coffee shops gives you the accurate feel!

  21. Interesting to see that in Scotland the Conservatives are picking up as many from SNP as from Labour.

  22. Can someone remind me what the share of vote was in 2015?

  23. The UKIP vote now falling away to Labour? Surely not.

  24. https://mobile.twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/866033233384919043

    “YouGov/Sunday Times
    On the changes to care funding 35% said they supported them, 40% they opposed them”

  25. SEA CHANGE @Danny
    I think you are stretching the limits of credible discourse.

    So do I, but you should admit that it has generated some amusing, if anguished, posts from your own side in response.

    I suspect DAIBACH may have it right. Polling suggests that won’t happen, but we haven’t had any post-manifesto polling yet. There’s also the open question of whether the post-2015 tweaks by all the pollster will improve accuracy.

    On balance, it will be a surprise if May does not remain PM after the GE, but at least the next few weeks should be entertaining.

  26. SSSimon – no. The drop from 6% for UKIP is probably just a reversion to the mean. The YouGov poll before that had them on 3%, and I think that 6% was just a bit of unusual sample variation.

  27. “YouGov/Sunday Times
    On the changes to care funding 35% said they supported them, 40% they opposed them”

    hahahaha…..so if that is right then everyone is jumping to conclusions that this one policy has changed things. Maybe the 9% lead per YG is just an outlier

  28. Barbazenzero – “from your own side in response.”

    No posters should be regarding others, or themselves, as being on one side or the other. Please leave your own politics at the door.

  29. ANTHONY WELLS @ BZ

    Sorry. Will try harder.

  30. @Adam

    “Can someone remind me what the share of vote was in 2015?”

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

  31. @Adam

    2015 GE Result (source Wikipedia)

    Con 37.8
    Lab 31.2
    UKIP 12.9
    LD 8.1
    SNP 4.9
    GRN 3.8
    OTHER 1.4

  32. Adam – I’m not so sure. In the poll YouGov have briefly described the policy change that the Conservatives have proposed and it comes up fairly even between support & opposition. However it’s a complicated policy, and what if the dry description in the poll isn’t how people have understood it – what if, as Sorrel suggests in his comment on the next post, the way it’s come across to the public is as something that was free not being free anymore, and people having their homes taken away. I may try asking it on a poll in a much simpler way – just “from what you’ve seen or heard about the Conservatives proposals on social care, do you support or oppose them?”, see if it comes up differently…

  33. One thing Labour must do is improve their campaign co-ordination and not go off message from the manifesto (perhaps no more slots on LBC). The in effect dual campaign so far seems to have actually worked to Labours advantage, but if the polls continue to narrow the Party will have to show greater unity to demonstrate it could potentially govern.

  34. Conservatives will surely up their game next week. This last week has been as dull as dishwater from them, absolutely nothing to sell on th doorstep, and they have been duly punished with a narrowing.

  35. It’s possible though that If Labour start to close we might actually see some of those actual Labour MPs getting on message.

    Who’d have thought?

    He gets anywhere close and how long before people start asking not “how much better would they have done without Corbyn?” but rather, what if those so called Labour MPs had actually backed their democratically elected leader publicly fro the start? Maybe the polls would have been closer to start with.

  36. Cripes !!!! And here’s me thinking we were home and dry, I was clever enough to be 3 hrs ahead of schedule to catch a car ferry, a few years ago, missed it….. ;-)

  37. @Rich

    The Conservatives will need to go back to Brexit, which is their strength. The huge leads at the start of the campaign were down to them talking about Brexit and standing up to the EU

  38. @ AW I assume my last post reads as comment on the merits of a policy rather than as the potential impact of that policy on voting intention.

    Apologies if that is the case.

  39. NickP

    Maybe the polls would have been closer to start with.

    But then she probably wouldn’t have called an election.

    A month ago I thought Lab would be lucky to get 28% and that low 20s was a real possibility – the notion that they would be polling in the mid 30’s with the Tories potentially shooting themselves in the foot seemed fanciful. Still 2 and half weeks to go – Rudyard could still be proved right.

  40. Andy T,
    ” in a negotiation you must have a walk away position).”
    In this situation, ‘the deal’ is leaving the EU. the walk away position would be to keep the status quo, ie remain a member.

  41. It may be premature but how big does the Cons majority have to be for the Conservative Party to think it I was worthwhile?

    Or put another way the PM calls for an Election for a strong and stable Government and if the country in aggregate rejects that by no or an insignificant increase in the majority does she not have to resign? Heath didn’t until Thatcher forced him out but then that was opposition.

    Either way her internal enemies (remember the opposition is not the enemy they are in your own party is the cliché) will be encouraged.

    Final thought currencies will be interesting on Monday?

  42. Even if this poll is spot on, it still leaves the Tories in the mid-forties with Labour ten points adrift. It’s always been the case that a third of the electorate are left wing, so Corbyn has undoubtedly been sucessful at maximising his core vote. His real challenge, however, is to extend his appeal to the sort of middle-ground voters who might not view his spending plans with uncritical enthusiasm. It will be interesting to see what happens during the next few weeks, but (short of a spectacular Conservative own goal) I’d be surprised to see the gap close much further.

  43. I think I’m right in saying I had the highest predicted Labour share of the vote (or second highest) at 31% in SSIMON’S sterling predictions game. Who would have said that Labour would have been 4% ahead of the highest of us with weeks to go?!

    I thought I was being brave and sticking my neck out :-)

  44. @ Bardin1 at 8.24

    ” the many statements by the FM on the subject would push anyone who wanted a reduction in immigration towards the CONS.”

    As David Welch pointed out at 9.41, there are few such people, and the demographics are very different from England, which was acknowledged by Ruth Davidson earlier this week when she said (on radio, I think – I forget exactly where) that she wanted Scotland to have increased immigration, via a higher share of the reduced overall total.

    So anyone moving to her party for that reason could be disappointed.

  45. @ ExileInYorks

    This is clearly a very controversial issue, but there are all sorts of issues at play here. Geriatric health and social care costs in the UK are completely out of control, and unless there is some radical change in funding, most people must realise that it becomes a dysfunctional and inadequate?

    I think it is surprisingly brave to present solutions in a manifesto, and there will be a hit. I’m assuming TM thinks that JC is so exposed that once the big guns start firing this week, that it will fall lower down the agenda?

    At least the loss of triple lock can be mitigated by pointing to the continuing double lock. Taking away people’s homes is always a very negative issue, but from my understanding, people at the moment literally have to sell their homes whilst still alive in any case? In which case a soothing narrative explaining that this is a better scenario may serve well?

  46. @Jonesinbangor
    Of course ‘something has to be done’ about social care funding, which is why a very sensible cross party consensus was reached circa 2009.. until the Tories pulled out of it and started calling it names
    This new proposal, which has immediately attracted its own pejorative name, would hit an unfortunate minority of middle-wealth people a crippling blow and will be electoral poison IMHO

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