I don’t think we have any new GB polls today, but we did have a new Scottish poll from YouGov in this morning’s Times. Topline figures are SNP 42%(+1), CON 29%(+1), LAB 19%(+1), LDEM 6%(-1).

This is the first poll since the local elections and doesn’t show any obvious impact from them – the SNP remainly safely ahead, the Conservatives are clearly the second placed party and there does not appear to have been any real movement since the last poll. Tabs are here.


317 Responses to “YouGov/Times Scottish poll – SNP 42, CON 29, LAB 19, LDEM 6”

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  1. @Gordon Dudgeon

    “DUDGEON, not Duncan.
    am only going on ORB / Telegraphs own guesstimate.”

    My apologies.

  2. Reggieside,

    The idea that younger people are more left-wing is nothing new. ’twas ever thus.

    Hence, Lab has had strong leads among the young for decades, but that has not translated into large lab leads as each cohort grew older.

    The reality is that as people mature they become more responsible, and hence less radical. It has nothing to do with specific policies put out by one party or another.

    This progression of responsibility also explains the differential turnout between young and old.

  3. So, back to the ORB poll, is it fair to say that if the Con vote is holding steady, Labour are still only managing to consolidate the Anyone But the Tories vote? In which case, with LD on 7 and UKIP on 7 in this poll, we are unlikely to see any further narrowing of the gap?

  4. @Graham

    “RAF
    If you look at the ‘Conservative Targets’ page of this site you will find 21 Labour seats with a majority below 5.4% in 2015. Those are the seats which would fall to the Tories on the 2.7% swing implied by the ORB poll. No idea how Electoral Calculus arrives at 30 seats.”

    EC had Con+35 and Lab -27.

    Presumably Ukip-Con switchers net Con a few more Labour seats than they would otherwise take on purely a Lab-Con UNS of 2.7%

  5. @Mike

    Agreed that Lab are approaching the limits of ABT voters For Lab to significantly progress from where they are now they would need to eat into the Tory vote.

  6. Where are the Liberals , when you need them.

  7. I have looked at the Electoral Calculus site , and it is clear that it is not applying a universal swing. Seats listed as Tory gains include – Edgbaston – Bishop Auckland – Bristol East Southampton Test – Wakefield -Delyn – Chorley – Eltham – Stoke on Trent North – Stoke on Trent South. None of those seats would fall to the Tories on a 2.7% swing – indeed Stoke on Trent North requires a swing of over 6% and Chorley, Bristol East and Bishop Auckland a 4.5% swing.. On the other hand , Tooting would very narrowly go Tory but is not included in the list.

  8. @Graham

    I suspect the list does not assume a uniform swing. Big swing in Wales and Scotland, but nothing much happening in London.

  9. Mike 3.13 pm

    This claim that university lecturers are “left wing” is an exaggeration and based on a self-submitted 2015 survey – just the sort of evidence that AW regularly warns about.

    Besides which, the Telegraph has twisted the Adam Smith report that found 46% of lecturers voted Labour into its headline “8 in 10 lecturers are left-wing”

    I have pasted out from the Adam Smith summary

    • Individuals with left-wing and liberal views are overrepresented in British academia. Those with right-wing and conservative views are correspondingly underrepresented. Around 50% of the general public supports right-wing or conservative parties, compared to less than 12% of academics. Conservative and right-wing academics are particularly scarce in the social sciences, the humanities and the arts.

    https://static1.squarespace.com/static/56eddde762cd9413e151ac92/t/58b5a7cd03596ec6631d8b8a/1488299985267/Left+Wing+Bias+Paper.pdf

    What the DTel has done is turn LibDem and Green support (total 31% of those joining the survey) into being left-wing.

  10. On the social care plan, quite a few people seem to be assuming it’s unpopular with Tory voters and speculating how much of a VI hit will result… do we have any polling on the manifesto content or on this policy itself yet to confirm that it is actually unpopular?

  11. I’m a Tory, I dislike the Tory social care plan but i’m reasonably confident most Tory MPs wouldn’t ever vote for it due to pressure from constituents.

  12. @ ROB
    I also think it wouldn’t pass. But just having it in the manifesto is likely to put people off.

    @ Edge of R
    No idea; it’s all gut feeling/anecdotal at the moment. Even if the polls move (they are moving) we’d need a direct question from several pollsters to be reasonably sure.

  13. @ROB

    If the tory’s get a landslide , It’s in the manifesto and there would be a 3 line whip, they would have to vote for it.

  14. I can’t see a position where UKIP and the Lib Dems get the same % on election day. I would expect LDs to be higher, possibly 9-10% and UKIP on 4-5% – something like this is possible:

    Con 48%
    Lab 32%
    LD 9%
    UKIP 5%

    The Tory figure looks very high but given that most of this “height” comes from UKIP is is hard to see how it would be much lower.

  15. Agree on young being more radical.

    When I was at Uni everybody and his dog had a Che Guavera t-shirt and claimed to be a socialist. Twenty years later, most of the people I still know laugh about this rather than still subscribe to it.

  16. Mike

    UKIP is never going to be 7% on Election Day.( my guess < 3%).

    LD will probably stay fairly close to 7% which is still a very poor result.

    Labour could pick up a few UKIP votes, but most will surely go to the Tories.

    Unless we see greater reduction of Tory to Labour in other polls today, you would have to conclude Tory vote will increase as UKIP voters lend their vote to ensure Brexit.

    Nuttall and Farage will probably also remind UKIP voters that it is vital to lend votes to the Tories at this election only.

  17. Beta Ray Bill was a Korbinite, apparently.

  18. “Nuttall and Farage will probably also remind UKIP voters that it is vital to lend votes to the Tories at this election only.”

    No chance of that happening, ever.

  19. @SORREL

    I don’t even see what on earth was the point of putting it in the manifesto? There was nothing positive from it (to anyone with more than two brain cells) and only negative. Its effectively an inheritance tax but instead of starting from £350k, it starts from £100k!

    I also would have told the Tory donor who keeps requesting a free vote on fox-hunting that their request loses more votes than the money they contribute attracts!

  20. Nuttall is truly awful, not a tenth of the impact of Farage. Cons got lucky there.

  21. Nickp, had to google that.

    https://marvel.com/universe/Beta_Ray_Bill

    Korbynites fighting the evil menace.

    lols.

  22. RUDYARD
    The fightback is gathering pace, fabulous response canvassing today.
    Certainly all to play for.

    Where were you, Liverpool? lol

  23. ANDY T
    Labour could pick up a few UKIP votes, but most will surely go to the Tories.

    Why are you so sure? There may be some possibility of it being withdrawn as a “mis-speak” but it has hardly met with much approval.

    In the Indy, the Con Southend Council Leader declaims it with:
    “These people have worked all their lives to build up their assets. They are now saying ‘we won’t take your home while you’re alive but we’ll take it from you when you are dead’.”

    See Conservative councillor slams Theresa May’s ‘dementia tax’ care plan

    Also at least worth noting that it was pretty unpopular on the BBC’s Any Questions last night and even more so on Any Answers after today’s repeat. IIRC, only one caller thought the idea sensible. Well worth a listen. See here.

    Given that on the same program McDonnell agreed that Lab are going for Brexit, I could imagine that more than a few 2015 UKIP voters could end up voting Lab this time.

  24. Rich

    “Where were you, Liverpool?”

    There is no canvassing in Liverpool. All the activists are over the water, where it’s more needed.

    Having said that, the first leaflet from Labour came yesterday. It’s the same, more or less, as every election. Our MP is great, and she supports progressive things.

  25. @ ROB, SORRELL

    I’m not so sure, partly cos you’d imagine that something this contentious has had fairly thorough opinion testing before being announced.

    I can see a lot of people would be against the idea of their estate largely going to the government instead of their family. But at the same time, I’d expect there to be plenty of support for removing the requirement to sell your house to pay for residential care. Especially for older people who are afraid what would happen if they have a bad fall, the idea that accepting a period of residential care isn’t necessarily permanent and they’ll always have their home to come back to could be pretty significant.

    Hopefully we’ll get some numbers soon.

  26. RICH.
    Hello to you, this sunny Bournemouth day. Not a marginal seat, I think, this GE anyway.

    If Tom Watson holds on in his seat against the swing to the Blues, he may have the authority to make a Conference speech urging Jeremy to do what Foot did and vacate the leadership.
    He and Yvette might form a good platform, like Kinnock and Hattersley did in 83.

  27. I’m not convinced Rudyard is totally onboard with the whole “this is a site for non-partisan discussion of polls” thing….

  28. I feel This Labour upsurge may be in the wrong place. The Tories are going to do well in places UKIP have crashed, the LD vote in these places was miniscule. 1700 votes in my seat for instance compared to more than 5000 UKIP votes. This is bad news for labour and I wouldn’t be surprise if we se labour pile up votes in its inner city seats and in places it has no chance.

    In short CON must be up where UKIP is down, Lab must be up where LD is down, In leave northern/ midlands constituencies this plays perfectly to the conservatives. Also a possibility is that we will see the labour vote actually strengthen ever so slightly only to see it dwarfed by the UKIP to CON landslide.

    Uniform swing wont work here me thinks.

  29. Nothing wrong with Rudyard’s optimism – he cheers me up, and I’m not on his side!

  30. There are far worst offenders clearly.
    Mild enthusiasm is surely excusable at election times.

  31. far worse, dammit.

  32. @rob

    The charge for dementia care and the like is not a tax. It is a payment for services, but with limited recourse, i.e. after death, on equity of house.

    It only looks like a tax if you start on the assumption that the bill naturally lies with the state.

    I am not saying it is the best way. I doubt if there is a best way. But it is not a tax.

  33. No, I’m not knocking it, just find Rudyard’s Tiggerish reports from the front line amusing

  34. It will be interesting to see if the upsurge of Labour also happens in Scotland and whether it could garner them a seat or two from SNP – that would be of psychological values to Labour acvitists in Scotland.

  35. Hasn’t it been shown that Corbyn is campaigning in a lot of safe seats rather than marginal? If so it suggests that his focus on getting a sufficiently ok result in order to continue as leader after the election rather than winning the GE

  36. @MIke “I’m not convinced Rudyard is totally onboard with the whole “this is a site for non-partisan discussion of polls” thing….”

    Rudyard’s cheerfulness and non-attacking partisanship I think gives him a pass. Anyway, it’s nice to hear from Islington North!

  37. lol seaschange

  38. @Adam

    I’m guessing they are way ahead of where they thought they would be – may see a change in strategy next week if polls remain as they are

  39. Mike

    But you have to admire his enthusiasm.

    Labour at 34% ( all be it so far in a single poll) will encourage some to feel that Corbyn is leading his team to victory. The only problem is that with the Tories on 46% the gap is still double figures with the clock ticking.

    Lets see how excited Rudyard gets if other polls have a OMFG moment later

    The polls do still seem pretty stable for the Tories.

  40. Added to that, I would also not rule out the conservatives loosing votes in some of its remain seats. So I think the conservative vote must be very well targeted to take these labour seats.

    Must not forget Scotland adds a point or 2 to the VI, although they are off course hoping to make reasonable gains there as well.

  41. This election has gone from what initially looked like, and many anticipated to be, forgone landslide conclusion to one which in many ways could be as big a surprise as 2015 was.

    Many of us thought that LD support was understated and they would see their support increase, picking up the remain vote. No sign that is happening.

    Many of us thought that moderate Lab voters would stay at home or switch – but Labour’s support appears to be rallying.

    It is possible that Labour could see its % share increase 2 elections in a row – but see its number of seats fall to 1935 levels.

    The key determinant is how strong is the Brexit vote – and will a potential Labour surge make it more likely to turnout?

    The Tory’s do seem to be taking some risks in their manifesto so as not to tie themselves down. May called the election on what looked like sure fire odds she would get a landslide. If in the event she only makes modest gains she wont get the freedom of action she seeks. If Lab vi gets up to the 38% mark I’m sure Tory HQ will be getting nervous.

  42. Suggested yes, but it is more complex even if you buy it.

    http://www.campaignlive.co.uk/article/labours-canny-campaign-beginning-work/1434056

  43. Sorry, my last is in response to Adam’s Question.

  44. Redrich

    A reasonable assessment IMO. I would also add that Labour seems to have been able to neutralise the Brexit question for the moment, or had it neutralised for them by a large chunk of the Remain vote accepting that Brexit will and should happen. Hence, the collapse of the LibDem vote in the opinion polls. The opinion polls which take into account the entire reaction to the Conservative manifesto should give us a better indication of what might happen in the next week or two.

  45. @Bantams

    Commiserations you had the better team for much of the match but the Lions had more in their legs at the end. And that’s what has undone you. You should go up next year.

  46. I would imagine the Conservative VI share will be 48%+ on June 8th.

    Simple reasoning is that UKIP (IMO) will be down to 2% +/-1% UKIP are only standing in circa. half the seats nationally and I don’t think anyone realistically gives them any chance of gaining a seat. There is still a large swing possible from UKIP -> Conservatives as shown in polls generally where the present Conservative lead is the smallest often with a correspondingly higher UKIP VI.

    As for Labour they have basically got to where they will be going I think with regard to VI in attracting the so-called ‘ABT votes’. Though I do suspect that come the last week of the campaign those that presently say they are going to vote Labour will decide either not to bother voting or may even change their minds to actually vote for anther party when they are in the polling booth, and some of these will go directly to the Conservatives.

    My ‘gut feeling’ remains that the Conservatives are likely to obtain over 50% of votes cast in the election with Labour under 30%,

  47. @joseph1832

    I wonder if the “Dementia Tax” label will.stick as well as the “Bedroom Tax”?

    In any event I expect the big risk to the Tories will come when it becomes apparent that their care policy depends on financial products ( provided presumably by the private sector) with all the attendant risks of misselling, pressure on claimants and so on.

  48. JOSEPH1832 @rob
    The charge for dementia care and the like is not a tax. It is a payment for services, but with limited recourse, i.e. after death, on equity of house.
    It only looks like a tax if you start on the assumption that the bill naturally lies with the state.

    If implemented it will be a tax, albeit a rather sneaky one. It can also be viewed as the thin end of the wedge in removing some illnesses from NHS coverage. Obviously not everyone will view it that way, but anyone who thinks the NHS has been inadequately funded by the Con government will likely disagree with you.

  49. New poll, but taken before the Tory manifesto so not much new.

    Westminster voting intention:
    CON: 46% (-1)
    LAB: 33% (+1)
    LDEM: 8% (-)
    UKIP: 5% (-)
    GRN: 2% (-)

    T. May: 48 / 31 +17
    J. Corbyn: 27 / 45 -18
    T. Farron: 16 / 37 -21
    P. Nuttall: 10 / 46 -26
    @OpiniumResearch) 16 – 17 May)

  50. @Mike

    I would also add that Labour seems to have been able to neutralise the Brexit question for the moment

    I would add that Corbyn’s position/reputation on this subject is aiding Labour – or at least mitigating the damage. Bit ironic given that it was this that prompted the bid to oust him last year.

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