I don’t think we have any new GB polls today, but we did have a new Scottish poll from YouGov in this morning’s Times. Topline figures are SNP 42%(+1), CON 29%(+1), LAB 19%(+1), LDEM 6%(-1).

This is the first poll since the local elections and doesn’t show any obvious impact from them – the SNP remainly safely ahead, the Conservatives are clearly the second placed party and there does not appear to have been any real movement since the last poll. Tabs are here.


317 Responses to “YouGov/Times Scottish poll – SNP 42, CON 29, LAB 19, LDEM 6”

1 3 4 5 6 7
  1. That Facebook link is about capturing email addresses etc.

    Nothing else.

  2. @Mike,

    Social media is rampantly left wing. Most of my younger friends are aggressively anti Tory. What I learnt from the last election is that it’s in no way representative of the broader vote. Labours page is left alone when updates are posted, as opposed to the Conservatives page where the good old compassionate left absolutely bombard it with bile and foul mouthed abuse whoever a new post is added.

  3. I also have a friend who posts lots of political stuff from the left and one recent article was about expenses and suggested the Tories were on the take. I replied that during the last election scandal, out of the 4 sitting MPs who went to prison for the most serious offences, all were from the Labour Party. She deleted the post. lol

  4. Rich,
    “Social media is rampantly left wing.”

    Social media, especially Facebook, is whatever the computer-generated algorithms decide is most likely to get you engaged. If you tend to click on certain kinds of stories/people, it will tend towards showing you more and more of them. The owners of FB etc do not care how much they distort your view of the world, they just want to make people spend more time on their services.

    That’s the problem, we increasingly do not get exposed to stuff we don’t want to see.

  5. @Edge of Seat

    Hence the surprise when things don’t turn out the way people expect. And hence the importance of accurate opinion polls in the run up to votes, so parties can gauge just what does and doesn’t affect the choices of the electorate.

  6. Serious question. How many actual floating don’t know voters are out there?? Am guessing it’s not as many as you think. So a lot of stuff like social media is just preaching to the converted.

  7. I’ve always been a little confused about people who say social media is a left-wing thing. My Facebook and Twitter feeds swing overwhelmingly to the right. It clearly depends on what your friends are interested in and who you follow.

  8. On a more light hearted note and while we’re on the subject of media accuracy, can anyone see what could be wrong with this Mail Online headline?

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-4522700/4-000-year-old-religious-site-Shropshire.html

  9. Ssimon

    I suppose it’s as much about demographics as anything. Twitter, for example, is used by younger, urban, better educated people who are more likely to be towards the left. Same with Facebook. Hence the “open” opinion polls will show a landslide for Corbyn.

  10. @SSSimon

    “I’ve always been a little confused about people who say social media is a left-wing thing. My Facebook and Twitter feeds swing overwhelmingly to the right. It clearly depends on what your friends are interested in and who you follow.”

    Yes. There’s a lot of work being carried out by marketers on how to most efficiently target their communications but it is still very much a work in progress

  11. ORB poll

    CON: 46% (-)
    LAB: 34% (+2)
    LDEM: 7% (-1)
    UKIP: 7% (-)

  12. Interesting to see Labour creeping up .

  13. @Mike and Edge of Seat

    I’d say that’s an argument old fashioned quality unbiased journalism, but sadly that’s in short supply too.

    @Rich

    I suspect a lot of people that are ‘floating voters’ aren’t really floating. They probably have a good who’ll they’ll vote for already but they like the idea of being undecided.

    And I’m never convinced campaigns have much effect on voting. Certainly it seems manifesto’s are fairly pointless – we have a Labour one that promises free everything with iffy costings and a Tory one promising cuts/taxes and general pain with no costings… but no-one is paying any attention to them except those that are already politically engaged and have already made up their minds.

  14. If your a pensioner who voted for brexit , are inclined to be socially conservative , opposed to open borders , distrustful of parties that wish to enlarge the state but have concerns over the tories social care policy then who are you going to vote for ? Corbyn’s labour?

  15. Rich
    I’m surprised you’re not complaining about this…
    ‘So far, no right thinking person has suggested Corbyn is going to be handed the keys to Downing Street. Maybe if voters actually thought that there was even a remote possibilty of that happening, they would rapidly come to their senses?’

  16. The polls are certainly looking better for Labour. We’re certainly moving away from landslide figures.

    The big issue for the Conservatives is whether the low figures for the Lib Dems will translate into a lower vote across the board – or whether people will vote for the Lib Dems in some tactical constituencies. Not sure how easy that is to put into polls.

  17. Just seen the latest ORB poll , labour up 2 to 34 , note thou how the tory vote has held up at 46.

  18. The ORB poll would imply a swing of 2.7% from Lab to Con and 21 Tory gains from Labour.Labour would have 211 seats – plus any clawed back from the SNP. Also worth bearing in mind that 12 of the sitting Labour MPs at risk on such a swing could expect a first time incumbency bonus which should help them to resist the Tory tide.

  19. Mike I would seriously dispute that better educated people are more likely to be left wing.

    I do however think that those on the left are more likely to share news stories etc on social media – especially those who feel that they have a moral superiority over those who lean to the right.

  20. @ Catmanjeff

    Nice graphs, thanks! However I notice you’ve put London twice and missed off the Rest of South.

  21. Social media is more left-wing because younger people tend to use it more and younger people tend to be more left-wing (hence every left-wing party wanting the voting age to drop to 16).

  22. I am almost wondering if May is purposefully trying to keep Corbyn in post. There was a landslide there for the taking but with a rather dull and realistic manifesto with no freebies she appears to be not wanting a landslide and a difficult new opponent like Cooper, D.Miliband etc

  23. @Graham

    Fieldwork dates? I assume the poll was carried out prior to the Tory manifesto?

  24. RAF,

    What? You mean there might not have been churches 2000 years before Jesus?

    More seriously, it underlines the sagacity of the early church in England who adopted many pagan festivals and practices in their drive to convert the natives.

    P

  25. Britain Elects? @britainelects

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 46% (-)
    LAB: 34% (+2)
    LDEM: 7% (-1)
    UKIP: 7% (-)

    (via @ORB_int / 17 – 18 May)

  26. Surely Labour gaining votes at the expense of the Lib Dems would be counterproductive, given that it was the LD wipeout in the South and South-West that delivered the Tory majority, and a reversal of that situation would be the biggest risk for TM.

  27. RE; @Mike,

    Better educated people are more likely to be left wing are they?

    Let me correct that for you Mike. Here you go;

    Urban, metropolitan elite left wing liberals ‘think’ they are better educated.

  28. @marco flynn

    “distrustful of parties that wish to enlarge the state ” is not a concern you would find expressed by the vast majority of people – its for right wing idelogues only.

    A voter might have concerns about “too much money spent on welfare” alongside concern about “cuts to the NHS” and potential tax rises. Which is somewhat inconsistant idelogically – but I would argue its a pretty common position.

  29. @SSSimon

    That depends on whether what @SORREL suggests above is true – ie whether the LD vote may hold up in the South and South West but be tactically squeezed in Lab/Tory marginals.

  30. ORB poll 17/18 May, so possibly not fully reflecting the negative response to the Tory manifesto? Could a poll taking in yesterday as well push the lead down to 10 points?

    Some very serious conversations will be taking place at CCHQ?

  31. I don’t think it’s constructive to throw around generalisations about educational level and political affiliation. I’m aware of the research, but it’s only going to inflame things.

    I will agree that younger people are clearly more inclined to vote for centrist or left-wing parties, although I disagree that social media is their thing. Most tweenies and hipsters I know of use snapchat and instagram, not facebook and twitter, which tend to attract more mature users. And you don’t really get politics on the former two.

  32. Im pretty sure that there is research shows that people with higher levels of education of more likey to be left leaning.

    Also there are more left wing campaigners than right wing ones – which is logical if you think about it. Left wingers want to change things – conservatives are, well … conservative. older and more likely to want to defend the status quo.

    And where you do get right wing campaigners they can be extremely vociferous – look at the facebook pages of labour candidates especailly younger female ones – the hate and bile they attract is shocking and deeply depressing.

    I dont think its any mystery as to why young people are more likey to vote labour either – the torys have deliberately targeted the older vote whilst cutting education grants and housing benefit for the young and doing very little to address concerns about the rental market, zero hours contacts or other areas likely to negatively affect younger people.

  33. Returning to this poll, OldNat posted the very interesting table on retention/churn from 2015.

    This shows that there has been movement in all sorts of direction, except that SCon are retaining 97% of their 2015 vote. Of particular note is that there have been significant shifts from SNP to Con offset by movement from Lab to SNP.

    What this tells me is that there is likely to be substantial regional variation in party shares, with SNP consolidating their hold on the former Labour heartlands in the central belt, while being more exposed to SCon revival in the NE and south. We could see more SNP losses than UNS would imply.

  34. Brexit voting fishermen not happy with the Tory manifesto which will help.the SNP in ne Scotland:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/19/theresa-may-could-waive-rights-95-per-cent-british-waters-brexit/

  35. @ RAF

    I suppose you’re right. I admit to being dubious about the idea of the vote holding up given Ashcroft’s extensive and ultimately inaccurate constituency forecasting last time around. At 7% it would – perhaps – require the Lib Dem vote to fall to implausibly low levels in other seats.

  36. Does 7% look a bit high for UKIP, or has the flow to Conservative been stemmed?

  37. Posters are very quick to quote polls such as this recent ORB, but they appear to be rather quick in their desire to quote it, without fully reading on in it. It also mentions Labour still down 50 seats on these figures , and that Conservative vote is less soft than Labour’s.

  38. @Gordon Duncan

    I tapped the figures (E&W only) into Electoral Calculus and got Lab down about 30, with a Tory OM of around 80. That is still a good win for the Tories but somewhat lower than what many expect. For example, Ashcroft’s model has the Tories at an OM of over 150 seats.

  39. @Mike

    “Does 7% look a bit high for UKIP, or has the flow to Conservative been stemmed?”

    It’s too high. It’s practically impossible given the clearly documented collapse in the Ukip share of the vote and the fact they are not standing in hundreds of seats, for Ukip to reach a HB-wide vote share of 7%.

  40. Looking at it again, I think the Conservative party have held at 46% in the last three ORB polls, with Labour moving up just 3 points in that time. So definitely no “omfg!” movements.

  41. @Reggieside I can’t help but note that you only highlighted the backend of my sentence I would suggest the brexit voting , socially conservative , opposed to open borders would represent be a larger demography of over 60’s than just right ideologues .

  42. DUDGEON, not Duncan.

    am only going on ORB / Telegraphs own guesstimate.

  43. @MIKE “Some very serious conversations will be taking place at CCHQ?”

    Something like this?

    Lynton: “Everyone we are in a total crisis! What can we do? We’re only on 46% and Corbyn is polling almost as well as Milliband was at this stage of the GE2015”

    Let’s have some perspective. This poll would mean a Tory Majority of around 90 on a uniform swing. Unless we see a dramatic fall in the Tory VI they are still going to get the biggest majority we’ve seen since Blair in 2001.

  44. Mike
    “Twitter, for example, is used by younger, urban, better educated people who are more likely to be towards the left.”
    Well, I’m older, live in the clean air and clear skies of the countryside, but I am fairly sure I have been better educated than most people born in the last say 30 years and I wouldn’t touch Twitter with a bargepole.
    Do you really believe that better educated people are towards the left?
    You should listen to Jacob Rees-Mogg, (and to the current members of the shadow cabinet.)
    Or do you intend your categories to be three separate ones, rather than an overall description of one?

    Rob
    “Social media is more left-wing because younger people tend to use it more and younger people tend to be more left-wing”
    That I can agree with, but the general progression from political left to political right with age is no new thing.

  45. So Scottish Labour’s leader, Kezia Dugdale, has been on Sky TV advising people to vote Tory in the Borders!

  46. I hate to be selfish about all this, but I’ve got a decent bet on a Con majority of zero to100, combined with a couple of smaller bets that are also looking good now.

    I shall invest my winnings in a Care Home insurance plan I think.

  47. Given the source I’m sure it’s absolute nonesense but this article claims Leftwingers are more intelligent than rightwingers. I suspect the Mail just enjoys insulting it’s own readership though – it sells paper.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2095549/Right-wingers-intelligent-left-wingers-says-controversial-study–conservative-politics-lead-people-racist.html

  48. The Telegraph ran an article claiming 8 in 10 University lecturers self-identified as left-wing. So perhaps high levels of education + low levels of real-world experience = further to the left

  49. RAF
    If you look at the ‘Conservative Targets’ page of this site you will find 21 Labour seats with a majority below 5.4% in 2015. Those are the seats which would fall to the Tories on the 2.7% swing implied by the ORB poll. No idea how Electoral Calculus arrives at 30 seats.

  50. @marco flynn.

    I quoted that bit because i saw “fear of an overlarge state” it as an unlikely concern – as opposed to the others you mentioned – immigration, brexit, socially conservative.
    That groups reluctance to vote for corbyn would be based on less anti-immigration/soft brexit image rather than taxing high earners to increase state spending on the NHS etc.
    The seeming tory own goal on social care may move some of them into voting labour – or AN other – rather than tory. I dont think it will be a huge shift – but still I cant see the tory manifesto doing anything other than dent their VI.

1 3 4 5 6 7