I don’t think we have any new GB polls today, but we did have a new Scottish poll from YouGov in this morning’s Times. Topline figures are SNP 42%(+1), CON 29%(+1), LAB 19%(+1), LDEM 6%(-1).

This is the first poll since the local elections and doesn’t show any obvious impact from them – the SNP remainly safely ahead, the Conservatives are clearly the second placed party and there does not appear to have been any real movement since the last poll. Tabs are here.


317 Responses to “YouGov/Times Scottish poll – SNP 42, CON 29, LAB 19, LDEM 6”

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  1. Its why I said for the first time these things will happen with polls overstating torys and youth vote going up. Apart from the right win newpapers everything seems to be bad press for the torys, Even a couple bad new pieces on the BBC about the social care and winter fuel payments. I really do believe Labour could hit 38 in the popular vote and Torys low 40s.

    I could very well be wrong. But just my feeling how the election is going

    Everything seems to be positive Labour and negative Torys who aren’t even doing a lot

    The torys could of put Labour to bed by cutting aid spending, keeping tripple lock and winter fuel payments and going all out anti Corbyn IRA and if they really wanted to stick the boot in scrap the public sector pay freeze

    Its like there trying to give Labour a chance

  2. @ALLAN CHRISTIE

    “hopefully, voters will source their info via social media where it’s a more even platform.”!

    seriously?

  3. Boy, there has some really ridiculous partisan posting today.

    This place is much better than that.

  4. @Lmzdee

    Absolutely, and they’ve let the conversation move too far from Brexit. The only explanation is that they’re so confident of victory that they’re using this opportunity to cash in popularity in exchange for pushing through non-populist policies.

    Have they set a target of, say, a very workable 65 seat majority rather than worrying about a landslide? If so, it’s a dangerous game.

  5. CATMANJEFF

    Boy, there has some really ridiculous partisan posting today.
    This place is much better than that.

    I agree, better things to do this morning anyway.

  6. @LMZDEE

    Where’s the evidence that the Tories, and not Labour, are being over stated in the polls? Historically, it’s always been the other way round.

    I believe Labour are being significantly overstated on a UNS because they’re stacking up support in safe seats, especially in London. I see no evidence whatsoever that the Tories are being overstated. Indeed, the opposite.

    I agree with you about the Foreign Aid Budget, though. That is a growing scandal IMO.

    The stuff about Corbyn & McDonnell’s links with the IRA – expect to see the Mail and the Sun go big on that in the very near future.

  7. @CATMANJEFF

    Too much cherryade?

  8. @Northernruralmodeoman

    Too much cherryade?

    Who?

  9. @Barnard

    I really do think the IRA stuff has been factored in by now. In fact, all of the negative stuff about Corbyn and McDonnell has, because it has been all over the newspapers for the past year. I don’t think there’s anything left to throw at them. As long as they keep Abbott well away from the media for the next few weeks, there shouldn’t be too many new personality attacks that will stick.

    Conservatives need to hope that they can keep a gap of 10+ points between them and Labour in the polls, and that means defusing the Dementia Tax row.

  10. Two points.

    Firstly as the tables show almost half of Scottish LibDems have shifted to the Tories which suggests two things; firstly that the pro union vote is going to the Tories but more from the LibDems than Labour and secondly that many of these voters were never really LibDems.

    It’s long been the case in the Highlands, North East and Borders that where the LibDems were strong and successful the Tory vote tended to be low for the prosperity of the area.

    Similarly the SNP used to get squeezed where their was a close Labour con fight.

    What we may be seeing with Brexit and Indyref2 and or a Tory revival in Scotland is nothing more than an unwinding of tactical voting.

    In areas where the LibDems did well the Tories will rise at their expense.! But unlikely to make a difference. If anything the LibDems chances could be hampered if they lose tactical Tory support over Brexit.

    Secondly this in today’s Herald.

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15298467.Kevin_McKenna__Tories_have_gift_wrapped_Sturgeon_victory_in_next_referendum/?ref=ebln

    Don’t agree with all of it, it’s your usual Journalist making a big play, but it is a different perspective.

    Peter.

  11. @CATMANJEFF

    not you

  12. I disagree, Mike. I don’t think the Tories or the right wing press have even started on them yet. The Mail and the Sun have actually been unusually quiet so far, but I can see that changing significantly.

    As for much of this being already factored in, I also disagree. How many people outside of sites like this and Westminster really know what Corbyn & McDonnell stood for?

    I doubt the average voter would know a thing about it. Something tells me that’s going to change.

  13. @northernruralmodeoman

    :-)

  14. @Benard

    No Evidence at all just a feeling I have from how the election is going and the that youth turn out will be up for a change, I know its said every time just feel how its going

    You could be right on the UNS part, Labour will get closer in the popular vote, Under 10% but get hammered in other places.

    Lets see how the next few weeks and the polls plan out, Torys should take it back to brexit and anti corbyn

  15. LMZDEE, it would be a remarkable effort if Labour got under a 10% gap. The Tories would have to collapse to the low 40s for that to happen. It’s possible, of course, but my feeling is the opposite of yours.

    Maybe it’ll end up somewhere in the middle of our predicitons?

  16. There have been calls earlier in the thread for local views from those Scotland constituencies which the SNP could possibly lose.

    In particular whether the likely Tory voters are now a) staunch believers in TM`s hard-right policies, b) staunch Brexiteers, c) anti-independence and an early referendum.

    I believe only a few will be a) and b) and only some will be c), and the total of a, b, and c together will only be half the possible Tory voters.

    Many folk here are middle-class and centrist politically – they have elected LibDem MPs in the past, and previous Tory MPs have been One-nation brand and obviously opposed to Margaret Thatcher.

    As yet, we haven`t any idea of the outlook of the Tory candidate recently selected. So until we get some useful info about the candidate, or Ruth Davidson makes clear there are more things like winter fuel allowance where she will have SCON opposing TM, I don`t want to predict our June 8th result. Any of SNP, LibDem or SCON could win.

  17. @ 11.22 am

    I should have said I am talking about NE Scotland and reporting from the West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine constituency.

  18. LMZDEE

    If weekend polls show that we are heading for Tories low 40s and Labour high 30s then I think that would be astonishing( not saying it might happen).

    This would be against backdrop of TM asking for voters to strengthen her hand in Brexit negotiations and a long held view that this is a very weak Labour Party led by a weak and damaged Corbyn.

    This would be agame changer as it would infer a significant shift of Con to Labour unless UKIP voters changed their mind and switch back to UKIP or who?

    If the weekend polls show a huge narrowing you would have to conclude that the Tories have called the election badly.

    It still does not feel that Labour will do as well as high 30s but I await the polls with interest as always

  19. Just taking a look at the 1987 GE polling – at 2 and a half weeks out there were 4 and 5 point leads and plenty of 7/8/9s so unless we see single digit numbers this weekend then I think we are still in 100+ majority territory.

  20. Interesting thought. If the polls do show a significant narrowing to under 10 points, could that actually be counter productive for Labour?

    So far, no right thinking person has suggested Corbyn is going to be handed the keys to Downing Street. Maybe if voters actually thought that there was even a remote possibilty of that happening, they would rapidly come to their senses?

    But Labour in the high 30s would be truly incredible, and there would have to be a major reaction from the Tories. I can’t see it in reality, though. Corbyn would be doing better than Tony Blair did in 2005. That doesn’t sound credible to me.

  21. Rich – “Wish they had cut international development instead..that would have won votes.”

    They’ve said they’re going to “redefine” international development.

    To me that means they’re going to treat the final payment to the EU as “overseas aid”, which means we know what the exit payment will be: £15bn from the overseas aid budget plus the £12 bn we pay to the EU, which is £27bn tops.

    After Brexit is over, I reckon the overseas aid budget will get cut. Especially as the Conservatives have announced a structural prosperity fund to be built out of what we save from not having to contribute to the EU anymore.

  22. @Candy

    If that is a policy then it would be dynamite and I can’t believe the spin doctors would miss the potential bad stories which could develop from switching foreign aid to paying off euro debts

  23. @RAF
    ‘Winter fuel payments – No. It’s not that much money and it will be means tested anyway. ‘

    I am not so sure – people have become accustomed to getting £300 to help with their heating bills in winter and suddenly taking it away will be noticed. It is very different to the £10 Xmas bonus given to pensioners since the end of 1972 by the Heath Government – nobody is likely to miss that. I also suspect that people now in their 50s or early 60s – not far off retirement – will resent being denied a benefit that has been. given to others for 15 years.

  24. @Bardin1

    Well, we have no euro debts, we have obediently been paying what we should have under the treaties. All the EU audits say that the revenue side is exactly correct, it’s the expenditure that they can’t sign off, due to fraud.

    If the EU demands money from us to plus their fraud gap, where should the money come from? Should we cut the NHS? Or take money from overseas aid? Or simply walk away? Or refuse to sign off any futher expenditure and block the budget for the next two years, so that money flowing into the EU plugs the fraud gap which means we have no more to pay?

    Pick your poison.

  25. @ PETER CAIRNS – I agree risk in this GE is unwinding of tactical voting that occurred 2015 (ie SNP hold more seats than expected but just with smaller majorities and an even further split opposition). Although the SLIB-CON tactical voting didn’t stop the SNP massive gains in 2015 it came close in a number of seats (e.g Dunbartonshire East, many Edinburgh seats).

    I didn’t see much evidence of SLAB tactical vote (as a pro-Union vote) from looking at 2010-IndyRef-2015 moves. Do you think any/many SLAB would vote tactically this time (over and above what they might/might not have done in 2015)?

  26. Candy , i do not believe the Tories will continue acting like the nasty party , attacking pensioners , cutting foreign aid etc.

    Crosby will make surer they go back to the centre ground to ensure t the !00 seat man, which I stall think they will get.

    i disagree that people in the 50/60 s won’t dislike the attack and they will support the cuts in winter fuel payment that £6 a week £24 a month attack on the living standards of pensioners.

  27. There might be no small irony in the fact that if this relative optimism in the comments about the Labour vote were to be borne out – that it could rather be once more that its performance in Scotland which would enable a Conservative Government…

  28. @Candy

    so it’s just your thoughts and not something which is planned?

    I’m not sure why I am answering where EU money demanded should come from (as I voted remain) but in the hypothetical situation you envisage I certainly wouldn’t take it from the NHS, or from foreign aid. To take it from foreign aid and make that direct connection would be bizarre. As I’m not aware we give any money from the development funds to the EU currently we would effectively be doing it to spite the EU and blame them for any consequences.

    If I had to balance the books to pay a debt the choices would be to raise taxes (corporation tax anyone? another 0.5p on income tax?) or to borrow more (which I think would be unwise).

    But luckily for everyone, I’m not the chancellor

  29. I was out wit a GP friend of mine last night, he said if he were Dianne Abbot’s physician he would be concerned, she has a first in History from Cambridge and has not seemed this incompetent before. He mentioned her weight and the entirely reversible condition of vascular dementia starving the brain of oxygen.

    Of course this may be nothing to do with her performance, however I remember the criticism of Mo Mowlam before it was revealed that she had brain cancer.

  30. @Bardin1

    Strictly speaking we don’t owe the EU any money at all (or those busses were understating the cost of the EU by a fair margin).

    The Germans and others are determined not to pay any more money to make up for the UK leaving, and the eastern and southern europeans are desperate not to suffer any cuts. So the chief begging officer, Barnier is proposing to ask the UK for money for the years beyond brexit and is trying to extort the cash before the trade deal is discussed.

    We have two choices – to walk away or to say to the public, “Europe is beggging for money as they can’t cope, we’re going to put some aid into their bowl out of the overseas budget”.

  31. @Candy

    I’m here to discuss polls and the parties election proposal/ policies – there are other places to argue whether the EU is right or wrong and if you believe they are wrong how we should act.

    I misunderstood and thought you were suggesting this was Conservative policy, and my point was if it was I think it would be a potential vote loser. If its not their policy it should be discussed here

  32. *shouldn’t

  33. @Bardin1

    The manifesto said they’d be “redefining” overseas aid – and I suggested that part of the redefinition would be aid to europe.

    Notice that the manifesto hasn’t costed an exit fee from the EU – which means that either we arn’t going to pay it, or it’s going to come from the redefined overseas aid budget.

  34. Overseas aid

    In fact the manifesto says that if we cannot get agreement to redefine it we will unilaterally redefine it !

  35. @Candy

    Firstly my understanding would be the manifesto doesn’t cost an exit fee because to do so would damage the negotiating position which will start with we don’t have to pay anything (but that is probably untenable).

    When Overseas Aid is ‘redefined’ I suppose you could include aid to Europe but it’s a huge stretch to call paying a bill from the EU ‘overseas aid’ and I can’t believe that would happen.

    What I could see happening is some of that aid going to contribute to alleviating the plight of refugees in Eurpe and that might in effect be a ‘saving’ if that was otherwise going to come out of another pot

  36. Trevor,

    “Do you think any/many SLAB would vote tactically this time (over and above what they might/might not have done in 2015)?”

    I think the biggest factor might be Lab voters staying at home and also those who switched from Labour to SNP or came out for the SNP but previously hadn’t voted staying at home.

    I expect a fall in the SNP vote particularly in places like Glasgow.
    If that causes a lower turnout and it is Labour and SNP voters that stay at home, then added to LibDems tactical votes moving to the Tories, SNP majorities will fall and the Tory share rise.

    The drivers will be a fall in Lab and SNP votes but it will be portrayed as a Tory surge.

    Peter.

  37. THE OTHER HOWARD @ David Welch

    Whilst WB, CANDY, RICH and plenty of others on you side are not?

    We all break the Comments Policy now and again but AW has my sympathy for so many partisan comments appearing on every thread. I can only hope that he puts more of the main offenders on pre-moderation.

  38. THE OTHER HOWARD

    your NOT you!

  39. Partisan comments against Cons slip through far easier. As pointed out by TOH, it’s through use of drip drip clever language like ‘TMs hard right policies’ when you could argue she is left of many other Cons on some policies.

  40. WB I had similar thoughts was concerned over Dianne Abbots health.I know she missed a vote on Brexit and was accused at the time of not really been ill.For someone so used to been on the media every week with Andrew Neil it does seem not quite right. Hope we are both wrong and she is just fine.

  41. Politically quite brave from the Tories to get rid of the triple lock after 2020. I actually quite admire TM for doing this after the brazen courting of the pensioner vote by Cameron and Osborne.

    The £100k asset guarantee is controversial, but at least it draws a line in the sand? A lot of pensioners sitting on large assets are going to be looking at equity release – I can see a mini boom and lots of new Jaguars and cruises…. or am I just cynical?

  42. @Peter Cairns

    At the 2015 election, the Conservatives polled 14.9% in Scotland. If they poll 28% at this election, surely they will be entitled to describe that as a “surge” – whatever happens to the support for other parties?

    While a lower turnout may artificially increase the voting share of some parties, if there is a low turnout as you suggest, that is likely to result in a Conservative support even higher than 28%.

    For what it’s worth, I think the floor for SNP support is around where they are in the polls at the moment. After all, support for independence appears a little higher.

    It seems to me that both SNP and Conservative supporters will be more likely to turn out in Scotland than supporters of other parties. At the moment, that would result in the Conservatives winning 3/4 seats comfortably, with up to 10 other seats being genuine SNP/Conservative marginals.

  43. BZ

    I am me :-)

    Fair comment and i agree their are far too many partisan comments from all sides.

    “I can only hope that he puts more of the main offenders on pre-moderation.”

    I agree. Twice I’ve agreed with you in one post!

  44. Bernard:

    “So far, no right thinking person has suggested Corbyn is going to be handed the keys to Downing Street. Maybe if voters actually thought that there was even a remote possibilty of that happening, they would rapidly come to their senses?
    But Labour in the high 30s would be truly incredible, and there would have to be a major reaction from the Tories. I can’t see it in reality, though. Corbyn would be doing better than Tony Blair did in 2005. That doesn’t sound credible to me.”

    Good to see the non partisan comments policy being policed in a non-partisan way.

  45. I just hope the last few weeks are campaigned on policies and the issues at hand.

    It would pity if it became about personalities and what it’s alleged folk did or believed thirty years ago.

    With Lynton Crosby around, I’m not hopeful…

  46. Question. The view is that a manifesto won’t substantially change the opinion polls, but has there been a manifesto in recent years with a policy as unpopular to a core section of its voters as the Conservative care package, together with the means testing of the winter fuel allowance?

    Of course, there have been unpopular poilcies, but when did a party last attack its own electorate in this way?

  47. Voodoo poll alert,

    Lots of activity on Facebook getting very excited at this

    https://ge2017.gritdigital.co.uk/#2017-opinion-poll

    Would be funny if the Facebookers didn’t actually believe it’s a reprentative of public opinion

  48. @TOH “Many thanks for reminding me of that YPM sketch. Wonderful stuff. What a series that was.”

    Those series remain a delight to this day. I make sure to watch them every few years. Marvellous scripts, wit, acting and a genuine commentary on politics. Apparently, the show was also loved in Soviet Russia.

    @Catmanjeff

    Thanks for the graphs again. Lib Dem HQ must be very worried indeed. Nothing is cutting through for them.

    On Partisan posts. I agree today has been particularly poor.

    This does tend to happen more going into a GE. I seem to remember 2010 being particularly partisan.

    On Lynton Crosby. He’ll play the man for sure. And when playing the ball that ball will be Brexit.

  49. Having a quick luncheon break before rejoining the fray this afternoon.

    Anecdotes from this morning’s campaigning:

    Older souls not at all happy about the social care annuncement by Mrs May. Quite vociferous actually.

    People don’t like the negative chatter in the newspapers

    Winter fuel also a big concern

    Back to it !!

  50. @Porrohman

    I was blocked by a “friend” for suggesting that social media users showed a slight bias towards the left. I’d send her that link if I could…

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